Preseason Rankings
Atlantic 10
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
58 Virginia Commonwealth 29.1%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 12 - 6 +9.6      +3.3 87 +6.3 33 65.6 247 0.0 1 0.0 1
65 Dayton 27.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 6 +8.9      +4.3 66 +4.6 58 65.3 256 0.0 1 0.0 1
72 Saint Louis 19.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 11 - 7 +7.9      +4.7 58 +3.3 84 68.2 180 0.0 1 0.0 1
85 George Washington 12.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 10 - 8 +6.2      +4.3 63 +1.8 116 67.5 198 0.0 1 0.0 1
99 George Mason 9.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 10 - 8 +5.1      +0.8 138 +4.3 66 63.1 314 0.0 1 0.0 1
103 Loyola Chicago 8.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 9 +4.7      +1.6 118 +3.0 94 67.0 212 0.0 1 0.0 1
111 Saint Joseph's 6.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 9 - 9 +3.8      +0.7 145 +3.1 90 69.5 134 0.0 1 0.0 1
115 Duquesne 5.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +3.4      +0.8 137 +2.6 104 63.6 298 0.0 1 0.0 1
120 St. Bonaventure 3.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 12 6 - 9 +2.4      -0.3 167 +2.6 100 62.7 320 0.0 1 0.0 1
137 Richmond 2.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 7 - 9 +1.7      +0.7 144 +1.0 133 61.3 343 0.0 1 0.0 1
144 Davidson 2.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 14 7 - 10 +0.8      +0.4 152 +0.4 149 65.3 255 0.0 1 0.0 1
146 Rhode Island 2.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 13 7 - 9 +0.7      +0.6 147 0.0 161 74.5 39 0.0 1 0.0 1
164 Fordham 1.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 7 - 11 -0.7      +1.0 133 -1.7 226 72.9 60 0.0 1 0.0 1
196 La Salle 0.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 12 -2.1      -1.0 201 -1.1 202 70.9 101 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Virginia Commonwealth 3.5 31.5 18.3 12.5 9.6 7.4 5.4 4.6 3.4 2.5 1.8 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.3
Dayton 4.1 23.1 16.9 13.0 10.4 8.6 7.2 5.6 4.6 3.5 2.8 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.4
Saint Louis 4.4 19.8 15.9 13.2 10.9 9.3 7.3 6.1 4.8 3.7 3.2 2.4 1.6 1.2 0.5
George Washington 5.2 12.2 13.7 12.4 11.4 9.7 8.7 7.5 6.3 5.1 4.6 3.4 2.5 1.7 1.0
George Mason 5.9 10.3 10.4 10.7 9.8 9.4 8.7 7.8 7.0 6.4 5.9 4.7 3.8 3.0 2.1
Loyola Chicago 6.4 7.9 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 8.5 8.6 7.8 7.2 6.3 5.7 4.6 3.6 2.3
Saint Joseph's 6.4 7.5 9.4 9.7 9.9 9.5 8.7 8.1 7.7 6.8 5.8 5.5 4.8 3.8 2.6
Duquesne 7.0 5.7 7.4 8.4 8.6 8.5 8.7 8.3 8.5 7.9 7.3 6.5 5.7 5.0 3.5
St. Bonaventure 9.4 0.5 1.6 2.8 4.0 5.4 6.4 7.5 8.5 9.3 10.3 11.1 11.9 11.5 9.1
Richmond 8.9 1.2 2.6 4.0 5.3 6.0 7.1 7.6 9.0 9.7 10.2 10.4 9.8 9.4 7.6
Davidson 8.8 1.5 2.9 4.3 5.3 6.5 7.6 7.8 8.7 8.8 9.1 10.0 10.1 9.7 7.6
Rhode Island 9.3 1.0 2.0 3.3 4.3 5.5 6.5 7.6 8.4 9.3 10.1 10.6 10.8 10.5 10.1
Fordham 9.2 1.4 2.5 3.3 4.5 5.7 6.4 7.4 8.2 9.0 9.7 9.7 10.5 10.5 11.2
La Salle 10.3 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.9 3.7 4.5 5.2 6.5 7.8 9.0 10.7 12.5 14.8 18.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Virginia Commonwealth 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.9 3.2 4.8 6.4 8.7 10.3 11.5 12.6 12.6 11.0 8.2 4.8 1.9
Dayton 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.0 4.5 6.4 8.6 10.3 11.2 12.2 12.1 10.6 8.3 5.8 3.0 0.9
Saint Louis 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.5 5.0 6.7 9.0 10.7 11.8 12.2 11.1 10.2 7.5 5.0 2.2 0.9
George Washington 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.2 4.9 6.7 9.0 10.8 11.7 11.8 12.0 9.8 7.6 5.0 2.9 1.2 0.3
George Mason 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.6 6.7 8.4 9.9 10.8 11.1 10.9 9.7 8.1 5.9 4.0 2.2 1.1 0.2
Loyola Chicago 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.2 3.7 5.8 7.7 9.1 10.8 11.3 11.1 10.6 9.0 6.8 4.9 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.1
Saint Joseph's 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.3 3.8 5.6 7.3 9.1 10.7 11.1 11.0 10.7 8.9 7.4 5.0 3.1 1.7 0.6 0.2
Duquesne 9 - 9 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.2 5.0 6.9 8.5 10.7 11.3 11.3 10.3 9.4 7.7 5.9 3.9 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1
St. Bonaventure 6 - 12 0.7 2.1 5.1 7.6 10.7 12.8 13.0 12.6 11.2 9.2 6.7 4.5 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.1
Richmond 7 - 11 0.4 1.7 3.9 6.4 9.1 11.4 12.4 12.7 11.6 9.8 8.0 5.6 3.6 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1
Davidson 7 - 11 0.4 1.8 3.9 6.3 9.0 11.2 11.9 12.0 11.3 10.1 8.2 5.8 4.0 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Rhode Island 7 - 11 0.7 2.4 4.9 7.4 9.9 12.1 12.8 12.2 11.2 9.1 7.2 4.8 2.9 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Fordham 7 - 11 0.7 2.6 4.9 7.5 9.9 11.8 12.2 12.0 10.6 8.7 7.1 5.0 3.2 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
La Salle 6 - 12 1.9 4.9 8.2 11.2 12.8 13.1 11.9 10.4 8.0 6.6 4.5 3.0 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia Commonwealth 31.5% 22.4 7.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Dayton 23.1% 15.7 5.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Saint Louis 19.8% 13.2 5.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
George Washington 12.2% 7.2 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
George Mason 10.3% 6.3 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Loyola Chicago 7.9% 4.7 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 7.5% 4.3 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 5.7% 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
St. Bonaventure 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Richmond 1.2% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Davidson 1.5% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Rhode Island 1.0% 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham 1.4% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
La Salle 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia Commonwealth 29.1% 21.9% 7.2% 11   0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 3.0 5.4 10.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.9 9.2%
Dayton 27.3% 18.0% 9.2% 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.0 3.4 6.0 8.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 72.7 11.3%
Saint Louis 19.7% 14.9% 4.7% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.6 3.6 8.1 2.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 80.3 5.5%
George Washington 12.3% 9.6% 2.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.0 2.1 5.4 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 87.7 3.0%
George Mason 9.7% 7.8% 1.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.5 4.3 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 90.3 2.0%
Loyola Chicago 8.8% 6.8% 2.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.6 3.9 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 91.2 2.2%
Saint Joseph's 6.6% 5.3% 1.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.8 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 93.4 1.3%
Duquesne 5.8% 4.7% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 94.2 1.1%
St. Bonaventure 3.1% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.9 0.5%
Richmond 2.9% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 97.1 0.4%
Davidson 2.2% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.8 0.2%
Rhode Island 2.1% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.9 0.3%
Fordham 1.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.7 0.1%
La Salle 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3 0.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Virginia Commonwealth 29.1% 3.0% 27.7% 12.8% 4.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Dayton 27.3% 3.5% 25.5% 11.4% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Saint Louis 19.7% 2.2% 18.6% 7.4% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
George Washington 12.3% 1.4% 11.7% 3.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 9.7% 1.0% 9.1% 2.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 8.8% 1.1% 8.2% 2.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 6.6% 0.7% 6.2% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 5.8% 0.6% 5.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 3.1% 0.3% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 2.9% 0.3% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 2.2% 0.2% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 2.1% 0.2% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 1.3% 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.3 71.4 25.8 2.7 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 1.2 0.0 77.2 21.1 1.6 0.1
2nd Round 42.3% 0.5 57.7 37.9 4.3 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 12.3% 0.1 87.7 11.9 0.3
Elite Eight 4.0% 0.0 96.0 4.0 0.0
Final Four 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1 0.0
Final Game 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1