Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
42 Virginia Commonwealth 43.0%   11   6 - 3 0 - 0 23 - 8 13 - 5 +11.6      +4.2 79 +7.4 18 73.5 86 +9.9 63 0.0 1
45 Saint Louis 37.4%   7 - 1 0 - 0 24 - 6 13 - 5 +10.9      +4.8 69 +6.1 35 77.8 27 +11.6 52 0.0 1
59 George Washington 22.0%   8 - 2 0 - 0 22 - 8 13 - 5 +9.5      +9.1 19 +0.4 157 74.4 66 +7.3 82 0.0 1
70 Dayton 17.6%   7 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 7 +8.1      +3.2 95 +4.9 50 71.1 143 +10.6 59 0.0 1
74 George Mason 14.5%   8 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 8 11 - 7 +7.7      +4.2 80 +3.5 74 63.1 335 +11.3 55 0.0 1
105 Richmond 4.1%   7 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 11 9 - 9 +4.4      +2.6 107 +1.7 117 71.1 142 +9.2 70 0.0 1
108 St. Bonaventure 4.1%   8 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 10 10 - 8 +4.1      +1.3 137 +2.8 88 65.6 285 +14.0 34 0.0 1
116 Rhode Island 2.4%   7 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 12 9 - 9 +3.3      +1.3 136 +2.0 109 69.5 182 +5.4 103 0.0 1
133 Duquesne 1.4%   5 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 10 +1.8      +1.2 138 +0.7 150 78.0 24 -1.8 197 0.0 1
138 Davidson 1.4%   6 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +1.6      +1.1 140 +0.5 153 65.3 291 +10.3 61 0.0 1
178 Saint Joseph's 0.3%   4 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 16 7 - 11 -1.4      -2.3 234 +0.9 140 70.4 158 +0.1 170 0.0 1
225 La Salle 0.1%   3 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 22 5 - 13 -3.8      -3.1 251 -0.8 191 65.7 279 -6.9 279 0.0 1
229 Fordham 0.1%   3 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 18 5 - 13 -3.9      -2.2 231 -1.7 223 62.5 347 -9.6 303 0.0 1
260 Loyola Chicago 0.0%   3 - 7 0 - 0 8 - 23 4 - 14 -5.4      -1.4 203 -4.0 312 64.4 310 -10.8 315 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 3 90 Belmont 76 105 Richmond 84   
Thu, Dec 4 138 Davidson 79 363 The Citadel 63   
Fri, Dec 5 231 Samford 57 42 Virginia Commonwealth 83   
Sat, Dec 6 74 George Mason 62 67 Virginia Tech 73   
Sat, Dec 6 70 Dayton 73 23 Virginia 86   
Sat, Dec 6 65 Providence 90 116 Rhode Island 71   
Sat, Dec 6 59 George Washington 99 119 William & Mary 86   
Sat, Dec 6 178 Saint Joseph's 70 160 Temple 69   
Sat, Dec 6 260 Loyola Chicago 73 250 Princeton 68   
Sat, Dec 6 133 Duquesne 84 221 Stony Brook 75   
Sat, Dec 6 267 Drexel 64 225 La Salle 69   
Sat, Dec 6 212 Old Dominion 77 105 Richmond 86   
Sat, Dec 6 223 Buffalo 69 108 St. Bonaventure 77   
Sat, Dec 6 229 Fordham 69 286 Holy Cross 70   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 7 138 Davidson 65 41 St. Mary's 72 76%   
Sun, Dec 7 309 Central Michigan 65 45 Saint Louis 87 97%   
Tue, Dec 9 80 McNeese St. 71 116 Rhode Island 70 53%   
Tue, Dec 9 364 Coppin St. 62 178 Saint Joseph's 81 95%   
Wed, Dec 10 84 New Mexico 74 42 Virginia Commonwealth 82 78%   
Wed, Dec 10 52 Boise St. 80 133 Duquesne 68 86%   
Wed, Dec 10 179 Colgate 66 108 St. Bonaventure 74 79%   
Wed, Dec 10 296 Delaware 69 59 George Washington 89 96%   
Wed, Dec 10 362 Fairleigh Dickinson 65 229 Fordham 79 90%   
Thu, Dec 11 178 Saint Joseph's 65 60 Syracuse 78 89%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Virginia Commonwealth 2.8 35.6 21.3 14.4 10.7 6.9 4.6 3.1 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Saint Louis 2.8 33.6 21.9 15.4 10.4 7.0 4.9 3.0 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
George Washington 3.4 22.2 21.5 16.8 13.1 9.4 6.6 4.4 2.9 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Dayton 4.5 12.3 13.8 13.7 13.8 12.9 10.9 8.3 6.1 4.0 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
George Mason 4.6 12.7 13.9 13.7 13.2 11.8 10.0 8.3 6.2 4.6 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
Richmond 6.9 2.9 5.1 6.8 8.9 10.1 11.2 11.9 11.6 10.4 8.6 6.0 3.9 1.9 0.8
St. Bonaventure 6.4 3.5 6.3 8.2 10.4 11.3 12.1 12.5 10.6 9.1 6.7 4.7 2.8 1.2 0.5
Rhode Island 6.9 2.4 4.6 6.6 9.0 10.5 11.7 12.3 12.1 10.6 8.7 5.7 3.4 1.7 0.8
Duquesne 8.5 1.0 2.0 3.2 4.8 6.2 7.9 9.4 11.1 12.7 12.7 11.9 9.0 5.3 2.7
Davidson 7.6 1.7 3.3 5.1 6.9 8.8 10.6 11.8 12.2 11.4 10.1 8.2 5.3 3.2 1.3
Saint Joseph's 9.7 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.5 3.5 5.3 7.4 9.9 12.2 14.1 14.8 12.7 9.3 6.1
La Salle 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.9 4.4 6.8 9.8 14.6 18.3 20.7 19.2
Fordham 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.1 4.9 7.6 10.9 14.8 18.9 19.2 16.5
Loyola Chicago 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.2 4.2 6.9 11.5 17.4 25.2 30.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Virginia Commonwealth 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.1 6.0 9.5 13.4 16.5 16.7 15.2 10.6 5.0 1.4
Saint Louis 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.4 6.2 9.6 13.4 17.0 16.5 14.8 10.0 5.0 1.2
George Washington 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.7 5.3 8.4 12.5 15.6 17.4 15.6 11.2 6.5 2.4 0.5
Dayton 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.8 3.6 6.3 10.0 13.3 15.5 15.9 13.5 9.9 5.9 2.5 0.9 0.1
George Mason 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.2 4.3 6.6 9.5 12.7 14.4 15.0 13.1 10.1 6.2 2.9 1.2 0.2
Richmond 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.6 4.9 7.7 10.5 13.3 14.3 14.2 11.7 8.8 5.8 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
St. Bonaventure 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.2 6.2 9.1 12.1 14.5 15.0 13.5 10.5 7.0 3.9 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
Rhode Island 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 4.2 7.5 10.9 13.7 15.2 14.5 12.0 8.8 5.4 2.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Duquesne 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.6 6.8 10.0 12.7 14.2 13.6 12.6 9.4 6.8 4.2 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Davidson 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.6 6.6 9.6 12.4 14.5 14.2 12.7 10.0 6.9 4.0 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Saint Joseph's 7 - 11 0.2 1.0 3.2 6.6 10.4 13.1 15.3 14.6 12.8 9.7 6.3 3.6 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
La Salle 5 - 13 1.4 5.3 10.5 14.9 17.1 16.1 13.1 9.5 5.9 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham 5 - 13 1.1 4.5 9.3 13.9 16.5 16.6 13.9 10.3 6.7 3.8 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Loyola Chicago 4 - 14 2.8 9.0 15.5 19.4 18.4 14.4 9.8 5.8 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Virginia Commonwealth 35.6% 23.6 9.1 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Saint Louis 33.6% 22.1 8.6 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
George Washington 22.2% 12.9 6.7 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Dayton 12.3% 6.6 3.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
George Mason 12.7% 6.9 3.9 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Richmond 2.9% 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Bonaventure 3.5% 1.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Rhode Island 2.4% 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Duquesne 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Davidson 1.7% 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
La Salle 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fordham 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Virginia Commonwealth 43.0% 26.6% 16.4% 11   0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.6 2.3 3.6 5.6 10.3 15.9 1.6 0.0 0.0 57.0 22.4%
Saint Louis 37.4% 23.5% 13.8% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.7 4.3 8.1 15.1 2.0 0.0 62.6 18.1%
George Washington 22.0% 16.4% 5.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.9 4.0 11.5 2.4 0.1 0.0 78.0 6.8%
Dayton 17.6% 11.3% 6.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.6 3.5 9.3 1.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 82.4 7.1%
George Mason 14.5% 10.2% 4.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.2 7.8 2.1 0.1 0.0 85.5 4.8%
Richmond 4.1% 3.4% 0.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 95.9 0.7%
St. Bonaventure 4.1% 3.2% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 2.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.9 0.9%
Rhode Island 2.4% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 97.6 0.2%
Duquesne 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.6 0.0%
Davidson 1.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.6 0.1%
Saint Joseph's 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.0%
La Salle 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Fordham 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Virginia Commonwealth 43.0% 7.2% 39.8% 18.9% 5.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Saint Louis 37.4% 6.4% 34.6% 15.6% 4.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
George Washington 22.0% 3.2% 20.5% 7.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Dayton 17.6% 3.7% 15.7% 5.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 14.5% 2.6% 13.1% 4.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 4.1% 0.5% 3.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 4.1% 0.7% 3.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 2.4% 0.1% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 1.4% 0.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 1.4% 0.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.5 57.2 37.4 5.2 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 1.4 0.0 66.2 30.9 2.8 0.0
2nd Round 47.8% 0.5 52.2 42.0 5.7 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 12.9% 0.1 87.1 12.5 0.4
Elite Eight 4.1% 0.0 95.9 4.1 0.0
Final Four 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1