Dayton
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +5.3 97
Expected Predictive Rating +6.0 85
Pace 69.8 144
Improvement -5.7 354

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #152 C+ C C A+ B
Defense B- #58 C+ C+ A C B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 45 63% 72 +5.5 23
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 305 27% 365 -4.0 345
Three Pointers 42% 168 32% 244 -0.7 204
1st FG Attempt 1.03 145 +0.8 145
Second Chance 27.4% 266 1.15 45 0.32 163
Turnovers 17.0% 181
Freethrows 0.41 2 75% 79 0.31 1
Total Offense +0.6 152

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 258 54% 68 +3.0 81
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 73 38% 167 -1.3 284
Three Pointers 40% 208 36% 278 -0.9 228
1st FG Attempt 1.00 146 +0.8 147
Second Chance 29.7% 148 0.97 99 0.29 113
Turnovers 22.7% 7
Freethrows 0.31 192 70% 68 0.22 165
Total Defense +4.7 58

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.2 41 -0.6 79
Shot Type Accuracy -0.4 183 -0.3 171
Possession Length 16.7 116 17.4 209
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 79 0.16 128
Improvement -4.0 #343 -1.7 #284

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 11.6 11.5 11.8
.500 or above 99% 100% 97%
.500 or above in Conference 68% 79% 47%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 3% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Davidson (Home) - 66.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 6
Quad 24 - 24 - 9
Quad 37 - 411 - 13
Quad 48 - 119 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 346 Canisius W 88 - 48 96% +21  99% 1 - 0 A+ +25 A+ +16 C+ A A+ A +12 B D A+
 Sat, Nov 8 259 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77 - 71 90% +4  79% 2 - 0 C- -3 C+ +2 C+ B C- D+ -4 C- F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 45 @Cincinnati L 62 - 74 19% -9  0% 2 - 1 C+ +3 F -10 F D- A- A+ +14 D- A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 227 Bethune-Cookman W 91 - 82 86% +6  78% 3 - 1 C+ +2 A+ +16 A+ B F+ F -13 C- F D-
 Wed, Nov 19 85 @Marquette W 77 - 71 OT 34% +5  83% 4 - 1 A- +16 D+ -3 A C F A+ +18 A- B A+
 Sat, Nov 22 339 NC Central W 74 - 55 96% +19  88% 5 - 1 C+ +4 D -5 F+ D A+ A +10 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 27 76 Georgetown W 84 - 79 OT 41% +7  87% 6 - 1 B+ +13 B +6 B- B- C B+ +6 D A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 28 21 BYU L 79 - 83 13% +0  53% 6 - 2 B+ +14 B- +4 A C- D+ A +10 C A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 126 East Tennessee St. W 88 - 71 73% +10  79% 7 - 2 A- +16 B +7 A+ C+ C- A- +8 D+ C- A+
 Sat, Dec 6 23 Virginia L 73 - 86 15% -6  23% 7 - 3 C+ +3 C+ +2 B D- A C+ +2 F C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 345 North Florida W 84 - 61 96% +21  90% 8 - 3 B- +8 D+ -3 B F C- A +11 A+ D B+
 Tue, Dec 16 93 Florida St. W 97 - 69 61% +13  98% 9 - 3 A+ +30 A +13 B- C- A A+ +14 B+ A A+
 Sat, Dec 20 95 Liberty L 61 - 64 61% +2  54% 9 - 4 C -1 D -6 F+ D+ C+ B +5 C+ A- D-
 Wed, Dec 31 157 Fordham W 63 - 56 79% +5  98% 10 - 4 1 - 0 C+ +4 D -4 F A+ B+ A- +9 B- A- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 277 @Loyola Chicago W 70 - 68 80% -6  8% 11 - 4 2 - 0 C- -2 D -5 F C- A- B- +3 D- C B+
 Tue, Jan 6 84 George Washington W 79 - 72 56% -1  42% 12 - 4 3 - 0 B +11 C+ +3 F+ A+ B B+ +7 C- C- A+
 Tue, Jan 13 108 @Duquesne W 71 - 65 43% +5  87% 13 - 4 4 - 0 B+ +13 B- +5 B- F+ B A- +9 B+ A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 16 277 Loyola Chicago W 78 - 51 91% +6  66% 14 - 4 5 - 0 A- +17 C- -1 B- F F+ A+ +19 A+ B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 226 @La Salle L 64 - 67 71% -9  1% 14 - 5 5 - 1 C- -3 D -5 F+ B D- C+ +1 C- C A
 Sat, Jan 24 136 @Saint Joseph's L 74 - 81 53% -3  38% 14 - 6 5 - 2 C- -2 C- -1 C- B F C -1 C- C+ D+
 Tue, Jan 27 116 Rhode Island L 76 - 81 OT 69% +3  62% 14 - 7 5 - 3 D+ -5 D+ -3 A+ D- F C- -2 C+ A- C+
 Fri, Jan 30 22 @Saint Louis L 71 - 102 10% -18  0% 14 - 8 5 - 4 D- -11 C+ +2 A- C+ F F -13 F F B-
 Tue, Feb 3 134 St. Bonaventure W 72 - 70 74% +3  68% 15 - 8 6 - 4 C +1 C +1 D C B C +0 C- C+ B+
 Fri, Feb 6 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 73 - 99 21% -17  3% 15 - 9 6 - 5 D- -12 F+ -8 F+ B- D C +0 B+ D- C-
 Sun, Feb 15 111 Davidson W 71 - 66 66%
 Wed, Feb 18 89 @George Mason L 68 - 71 36%
 Sat, Feb 21 108 Duquesne W 78 - 74 66%
 Tue, Feb 24 22 Saint Louis L 73 - 81 21%
 Fri, Feb 27 84 @George Washington L 76 - 80 34%
 Tue, Mar 3 128 @Richmond W 75 - 74 51%
 Fri, Mar 6 51 Virginia Commonwealth L 75 - 78 40%
Totals 18 - 13 9 - 9 +5 C +1 C+ C C B- +5 C+ C+ A



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C B F C- C 44% 14% 42% B C+ D+ B+ C C A+ B A+ B- B- C D+ C 36% 24% 40% B- C+ C+ B- C+ A C B- C
1.09 63% 27% 32% 0 +1 1.03 27% 1.2 .32 17% .41 75% .31 1.02 54% 38% 36% 0 -1 1.00 30% 1.0 .29 23% .31 70% .29
Nov
3		 Canisius A+ A+ F F C 48% 11% 41% A- C+ B- A+ A A+ A+ D A+ A A+ F+ B- B 36% 26% 38% C+ B F+ C+ D A+ B- A+ A
1.39 95% 20% 17% +5 +2 1.16 35% 1.4 .48 6% .69 68% .47 0.76 27% 45% 31% -11 -1 0.79 33% 0.9 .30 30% .25 45% .11
Nov
8		 Maryland Baltimore Co. C+ A+ D+ F+ C+ 39% 24% 37% D+ C+ D- A+ B C- A+ A+ A+ D+ B+ C- F D+ 28% 26% 46% B+ C- F D F A+ A- F+ B+
1.17 78% 36% 29% +5 0 1.11 23% 1.7 .38 14% .42 79% .33 1.07 50% 38% 39% +2 -1 1.02 34% 1.1 .38 23% .20 80% .16
Nov
11		 Cincinnati F C D- F F 53% 5% 42% A+ F F B- D- A- A+ A- A+ A+ B+ A+ F D 45% 10% 45% F D- A+ A+ A+ A+ F A- F
0.76 53% 33% 4% -21 +3 0.65 14% 1.2 .16 16% .40 74% .29 0.91 53% 25% 47% +5 +2 1.17 18% 0.7 .12 30% .65 62% .40
Nov
15		 Bethune-Cookman A+ D A+ A+ A+ 44% 12% 44% B- A+ B+ C- B F+ A+ A A+ F D D+ B- D 36% 34% 30% A C- F F F D- B+ A A-
1.33 50% 60% 61% +17 +1 1.39 39% 1.1 .43 19% .57 81% .47 1.19 63% 39% 31% +1 -2 1.00 38% 1.3 .50 15% .26 60% .15
Nov
19		 Marquette D+ C- A+ A+ A- 56% 7% 38% A+ A F A+ C F A+ D- A+ A+ A F B B+ 33% 18% 49% A+ A- C A B A+ B F+ C+
0.96 56% 67% 41% +5 +3 1.18 19% 1.6 .31 31% .47 69% .32 0.88 44% 50% 30% -5 0 0.91 32% 0.8 .24 25% .26 75% .20
Nov
22		 NC Central D B+ D+ F F+ 31% 15% 54% C F+ D C- D A+ C F D- A B- A+ A- A+ 38% 38% 24% A+ A+ C+ F F A+ B+ F C+
1.12 71% 38% 28% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.0 .33 11% .32 58% .19 0.83 53% 12% 27% -14 -2 0.69 26% 1.9 .50 27% .27 85% .23
Nov
27		 Georgetown B F F A+ C+ 33% 16% 51% B+ B- C B B- C A+ B+ A+ B+ C- C F D- 36% 24% 40% C+ D A A+ A+ B+ C+ A+ B
1.11 41% 25% 42% -1 0 1.00 30% 1.1 .33 17% .51 78% .40 1.05 60% 38% 41% +5 -1 1.11 26% 0.8 .21 17% .34 67% .22
Nov
28		 BYU B- C+ F A+ A 30% 16% 54% A A D B+ C- D+ C- F F A B- C F C 38% 23% 40% C- C A+ F A+ A+ B- F C
1.06 59% 22% 42% +4 0 1.11 21% 1.3 .26 19% .23 43% .10 1.11 60% 42% 43% +7 0 1.15 17% 1.8 .31 20% .30 83% .25
Dec
2		 East Tennessee St. B A+ B+ D A+ 42% 16% 42% C+ A+ B- D+ C+ C- A+ A- A+ A- C- C- D D 37% 24% 39% B+ D+ F A+ C- A+ B- D C+
1.19 89% 43% 32% +13 +1 1.29 33% 0.9 .29 20% .59 80% .48 0.96 61% 42% 37% +4 -1 1.08 35% 0.9 .32 30% .29 80% .23
Dec
6		 Virginia C+ C+ F B+ B- 43% 23% 34% B+ B D- F D- A B+ C+ B C+ D+ F+ F F 38% 19% 43% B F A+ F C A+ F D+ F
0.99 54% 23% 37% -4 0 0.95 20% 0.7 .14 12% .34 73% .25 1.17 63% 50% 56% +18 0 1.38 27% 1.7 .45 29% .51 74% .38
Dec
13		 North Florida D+ A+ A+ F B 45% 9% 45% B B C+ F F C- C F F+ A A A A+ A+ 35% 20% 45% B- A+ F B+ D B+ D- A+ D+
1.22 76% 80% 28% +8 +2 1.22 39% 0.8 .31 13% .28 47% .13 0.89 44% 30% 26% -12 0 0.78 34% 1.0 .34 22% .30 69% .20
Dec
16		 Florida St. A A+ F D C+ 40% 13% 48% A- B- F A+ C- A A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ D B 35% 19% 46% B+ B+ C A+ A A+ F B- F
1.24 74% 17% 30% +1 +1 1.06 21% 1.3 .28 15% .71 85% .61 0.88 47% 22% 36% -5 0 0.92 33% 0.8 .26 26% .46 70% .33
Dec
20		 Liberty D F C+ D+ F 27% 16% 57% C F+ C D- D+ C+ A- A A B C- A+ F C+ 55% 12% 33% C+ C+ B+ A+ A- D- A A+ A+
1.02 33% 43% 32% -8 0 0.86 31% 1.1 .34 17% .30 80% .24 1.07 63% 17% 44% +5 +2 1.16 13% 0.8 .10 10% .17 44% .07
Dec
31		 Fordham D A+ F F F 46% 27% 27% B- F D+ A+ A+ B+ A- B- A- A- F A+ A- B- 23% 19% 57% B B- D A+ A- A+ B+ A+ B+
1.01 73% 0% 8% -14 0 0.73 24% 2.4 .58 13% .33 72% .24 0.89 82% 22% 26% -4 -1 0.91 39% 0.6 .24 24% .17 63% .10
Jan
3		 Loyola Chicago D D F F F 49% 10% 41% A F F A+ C- A- A+ B+ A+ B- B+ F C- D- 41% 12% 47% C- D- F A+ C B+ A+ A A+
1.04 50% 20% 25% -11 +2 0.84 21% 1.4 .29 9% .41 84% .34 1.01 50% 83% 35% +3 +1 1.10 43% 0.7 .30 22% .10 60% .06
Jan
6		 George Washington C+ A+ F F+ F+ 36% 26% 38% D+ F+ B A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ B+ F A D+ D- 24% 24% 52% A+ C- F A- C- A+ F A+ D+
1.14 76% 0% 28% -7 -1 0.87 34% 1.4 .47 16% .51 90% .46 1.04 90% 30% 36% +8 -1 1.14 45% 0.9 .42 32% .42 60% .25
Jan
13		 Duquesne B- C- F A+ B- 45% 15% 40% A- B- D- D- F+ B A+ A+ A+ A- B- D+ B B+ 39% 11% 50% C+ B+ A- A+ A+ C+ F+ C D-
1.10 56% 17% 44% +2 +1 1.08 21% 0.8 .17 16% .51 82% .42 1.01 56% 40% 30% -3 +1 0.98 24% 0.5 .12 19% .42 73% .31
Jan
16		 Loyola Chicago C- C+ F A+ C+ 37% 18% 45% B- B- F+ F F F+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 20% 36% B A+ D- A+ B+ A+ C- A+ B-
1.14 58% 22% 43% +4 0 1.10 21% 0.7 .15 16% .49 79% .38 0.75 42% 22% 25% -15 0 0.73 37% 0.6 .23 28% .32 56% .18
Jan
21		 La Salle D A+ C- F F+ 43% 19% 38% C+ F+ B+ C- B D- A B A+ C+ A F B C 39% 12% 49% F C- C+ C- C A F A F
0.99 72% 38% 13% -6 +1 0.90 36% 1.1 .39 20% .35 72% .25 1.04 44% 80% 30% -3 +1 0.98 32% 1.0 .32 23% .57 64% .36
Jan
24		 Saint Joseph's C- F C A- D 53% 15% 33% A+ C- D+ A+ B F B- F C C C D B- C- 33% 10% 57% C- C- B+ D C+ D+ F F+ F
0.99 41% 38% 39% -6 +2 0.93 28% 1.4 .38 20% .25 60% .15 1.08 59% 40% 31% -2 +1 1.00 28% 1.1 .31 16% .41 81% .33
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Rhode Island D+ A+ D- A+ A+ 44% 18% 38% C+ A+ D D- D- F A+ B+ A+ C- A+ C- F C 43% 26% 30% B+ C+ B A A- C+ F D- F
1.01 71% 29% 47% +11 +1 1.26 27% 0.9 .23 31% .64 76% .48 1.08 40% 42% 50% 0 0 1.02 30% 0.7 .21 20% .60 78% .47
Jan
30		 Saint Louis C+ D+ A+ C+ A- 47% 18% 35% A- A- D- A+ C+ F D A+ C+ F B F F F 43% 4% 53% C F A- F F B- F+ A D+
0.98 50% 56% 33% -1 +1 1.02 20% 1.2 .23 21% .28 88% .24 1.40 55% 100% 59% +21 +2 1.49 26% 2.2 .57 18% .38 65% .25
Feb
3		 St. Bonaventure C A F D D- 40% 16% 44% B- D D+ B- C B A+ A A+ C F F+ A+ D+ 32% 30% 38% A- C- C- B- C+ B+ D- F+ F
1.13 71% 0% 32% -3 +1 0.98 27% 1.1 .30 16% .61 85% .52 1.10 87% 50% 22% +6 -2 1.11 37% 0.9 .33 20% .33 82% .28
Feb
6		 Virginia Commonwealth F+ F F B- F 56% 13% 31% A F+ C- A- B- D A+ F A- C A F A A 51% 12% 37% D B+ A- F D- C- F F F
0.88 35% 29% 35% -13 +2 0.80 28% 1.2 .33 19% .45 60% .27 1.20 48% 71% 29% -4 +2 0.98 28% 1.6 .46 15% .54 82% .44



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.9 4.9 2.5 0.3 8.5 3rd
4th 0.4 7.8 6.3 0.4 14.8 4th
5th 0.0 4.2 10.5 0.8 0.0 15.6 5th
6th 0.9 11.4 4.2 0.0 16.5 6th
7th 0.0 4.3 9.2 0.4 13.8 7th
8th 0.8 9.1 3.2 13.1 8th
9th 0.1 4.1 6.4 0.3 10.8 9th
10th 0.6 3.5 0.4 4.6 10th
11th 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.4 11th
12th 0.2 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 1.7 9.0 21.1 28.6 23.7 12.1 3.3 0.5 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.5% 16.3% 16.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4
12-6 3.3% 9.3% 8.4% 0.9% 11.2 0.3 0.1 3.0 1.0%
11-7 12.1% 4.6% 4.6% 11.4 0.4 0.2 11.5
10-8 23.7% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 11.6 0.3 0.4 0.0 23.0 0.0%
9-9 28.6% 1.9% 1.9% 11.7 0.2 0.4 0.0 28.0
8-10 21.1% 1.0% 1.0% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 20.9
7-11 9.0% 0.6% 0.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 9.0
6-12 1.7% 1.1% 1.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 1.7
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.5% 2.4% 0.0% 11.6 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%