Dayton
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#78
Expected Predictive Rating+8.0#70
Pace63.5#309
Improvement-8.0#362

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#50
First Shot+5.2#53
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#149
Layup/Dunks+3.7#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#214
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#158
Freethrows+1.6#85
Improvement-4.4#355

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#128
First Shot+1.1#139
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#143
Layups/Dunks+3.7#58
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#156
Freethrows-0.8#239
Improvement-3.6#342
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.0% 17.1% 10.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.9% 2.9% 0.7%
Average Seed 11.0 10.9 11.3
.500 or above 97.9% 99.3% 96.0%
.500 or above in Conference 75.6% 86.2% 62.5%
Conference Champion 4.4% 6.9% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.0% 1.1%
First Four1.2% 1.8% 0.4%
First Round13.3% 16.0% 10.0%
Second Round3.8% 4.8% 2.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.1% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Duquesne (Away) - 55.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 4
Quad 24 - 46 - 8
Quad 37 - 413 - 12
Quad 47 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 345   St. Francis (PA) W 87-57 97%     1 - 0 +15.3 +6.3 +8.7
  Nov 09, 2024 55   Northwestern W 71-66 50%     2 - 0 +12.3 +5.0 +7.4
  Nov 13, 2024 250   Ball St. W 77-69 91%     3 - 0 +0.2 -1.9 +2.1
  Nov 20, 2024 128   New Mexico St. W 74-53 77%     4 - 0 +20.5 +13.5 +10.3
  Nov 25, 2024 26   North Carolina L 90-92 27%     4 - 1 +11.8 +15.4 -3.4
  Nov 26, 2024 4   Iowa St. L 84-89 11%     4 - 2 +15.5 +23.7 -8.3
  Nov 27, 2024 24   Connecticut W 85-67 23%     5 - 2 +33.0 +22.1 +12.4
  Dec 03, 2024 304   Western Michigan W 77-69 94%     6 - 2 -2.7 +11.6 -12.8
  Dec 07, 2024 296   Lehigh W 86-62 94%     7 - 2 +13.6 +18.2 -2.0
  Dec 14, 2024 20   Marquette W 71-63 30%     8 - 2 +20.8 +14.1 +7.7
  Dec 17, 2024 99   UNLV W 66-65 69%     9 - 2 +3.2 +5.1 -1.7
  Dec 20, 2024 39   Cincinnati L 59-66 33%     9 - 3 +4.9 +2.1 +2.1
  Dec 31, 2024 191   La Salle W 84-70 85%     10 - 3 1 - 0 +9.9 +1.2 +7.3
  Jan 04, 2025 119   @ George Washington L 62-82 57%     10 - 4 1 - 1 -14.6 -5.4 -9.8
  Jan 08, 2025 171   @ Massachusetts L 72-76 68%     10 - 5 1 - 2 -1.7 +1.2 -2.9
  Jan 15, 2025 86   George Mason L 59-67 63%     10 - 6 1 - 3 -4.2 +2.6 -8.4
  Jan 18, 2025 136   Loyola Chicago W 83-81 OT 79%     11 - 6 2 - 3 +0.9 +5.0 -4.2
  Jan 21, 2025 116   @ Duquesne W 68-66 55%    
  Jan 24, 2025 90   Saint Joseph's W 74-70 64%    
  Jan 28, 2025 96   @ St. Bonaventure L 67-68 45%    
  Jan 31, 2025 102   @ Saint Louis W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 04, 2025 121   Davidson W 76-69 76%    
  Feb 07, 2025 49   Virginia Commonwealth L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 12, 2025 221   @ Fordham W 77-69 76%    
  Feb 15, 2025 116   Duquesne W 71-64 76%    
  Feb 21, 2025 136   @ Loyola Chicago W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 26, 2025 109   @ Rhode Island W 74-73 52%    
  Mar 01, 2025 209   Richmond W 74-62 88%    
  Mar 04, 2025 102   Saint Louis W 76-70 71%    
  Mar 07, 2025 49   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 66-72 28%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.5 0.3 4.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.8 3.2 0.6 0.0 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.4 5.8 1.2 0.0 11.7 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 6.6 2.0 0.1 10.8 4th
5th 0.4 6.3 4.7 0.1 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 2.7 6.8 1.0 10.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 6.3 3.6 0.0 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 2.6 5.1 0.7 8.4 8th
9th 0.8 4.8 2.0 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.1 2.2 3.7 0.4 6.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 3.0 1.1 0.0 4.9 11th
12th 0.2 1.3 1.2 0.0 2.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 1.5 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.0 7.4 12.7 17.0 19.7 17.6 12.2 6.6 2.2 0.4 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 89.5% 0.3    0.3 0.1
14-4 69.2% 1.5    0.7 0.7 0.1
13-5 31.2% 2.1    0.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 1.4 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.4% 76.3% 42.1% 34.2% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 59.1%
14-4 2.2% 49.3% 32.1% 17.2% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.1 25.3%
13-5 6.6% 35.5% 26.5% 8.9% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 0.1 4.3 12.2%
12-6 12.2% 24.1% 22.3% 1.8% 11.1 0.3 2.3 0.4 9.3 2.3%
11-7 17.6% 17.7% 16.6% 1.1% 11.3 0.1 2.1 0.9 14.5 1.3%
10-8 19.7% 10.8% 10.3% 0.6% 11.4 1.2 0.9 0.0 17.5 0.6%
9-9 17.0% 7.2% 7.2% 11.6 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.0 15.7
8-10 12.7% 4.4% 4.3% 0.1% 11.8 0.1 0.5 12.1 0.1%
7-11 7.4% 3.2% 3.2% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 7.2
6-12 3.0% 2.4% 2.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 2.9
5-13 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 14.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 14.0% 12.4% 1.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.3 8.0 3.8 0.1 0.0 86.0 1.9%