Dayton
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.9#60
Expected Predictive Rating+11.9#38
Pace64.7#307
Improvement-0.6#250

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#72
First Shot+3.3#80
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#144
Layup/Dunks+5.6#34
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#329
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#138
Freethrows-0.4#207
Improvement-0.7#285

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#50
First Shot+2.6#98
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#44
Layups/Dunks+3.2#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#317
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#175
Freethrows+1.7#94
Improvement+0.1#179
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 1.3% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 2.1% 5.2% 1.2%
Top 6 Seed 5.1% 12.3% 3.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.3% 47.3% 27.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 13.2% 27.4% 9.9%
Average Seed 9.3 8.5 9.7
.500 or above 95.9% 99.0% 95.1%
.500 or above in Conference 90.2% 94.7% 89.0%
Conference Champion 28.8% 38.3% 26.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four3.3% 4.8% 2.9%
First Round29.7% 45.0% 25.7%
Second Round13.5% 23.4% 10.9%
Sweet Sixteen4.6% 8.8% 3.4%
Elite Eight1.7% 3.6% 1.2%
Final Four0.6% 1.4% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: North Carolina (Neutral) - 20.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 24 - 35 - 6
Quad 38 - 214 - 9
Quad 47 - 021 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 342   St. Francis (PA) W 87-57 98%     1 - 0 +14.8 +7.9 +6.7
  Nov 09, 2024 74   Northwestern W 71-66 66%     2 - 0 +9.8 +2.5 +7.4
  Nov 13, 2024 280   Ball St. W 77-69 94%     3 - 0 -1.1 -0.9 -0.3
  Nov 20, 2024 163   New Mexico St. W 74-53 87%     4 - 0 +17.6 +11.1 +9.8
  Nov 25, 2024 8   North Carolina L 71-80 21%    
  Dec 03, 2024 323   Western Michigan W 80-59 98%    
  Dec 07, 2024 283   Lehigh W 80-62 95%    
  Dec 14, 2024 15   Marquette L 68-71 40%    
  Dec 17, 2024 89   UNLV W 71-65 71%    
  Dec 20, 2024 20   Cincinnati L 67-72 32%    
  Dec 31, 2024 121   La Salle W 73-64 79%    
  Jan 04, 2025 143   @ George Washington W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 08, 2025 128   @ Massachusetts W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 15, 2025 92   George Mason W 70-64 71%    
  Jan 18, 2025 104   Loyola Chicago W 73-65 74%    
  Jan 21, 2025 211   @ Duquesne W 71-63 77%    
  Jan 24, 2025 99   Saint Joseph's W 74-67 73%    
  Jan 28, 2025 115   @ St. Bonaventure W 68-66 58%    
  Jan 31, 2025 100   @ Saint Louis W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 04, 2025 131   Davidson W 73-63 81%    
  Feb 07, 2025 50   Virginia Commonwealth W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 12, 2025 162   @ Fordham W 72-66 70%    
  Feb 15, 2025 211   Duquesne W 74-60 89%    
  Feb 21, 2025 104   @ Loyola Chicago W 70-68 55%    
  Feb 26, 2025 113   @ Rhode Island W 75-73 58%    
  Mar 01, 2025 201   Richmond W 73-59 89%    
  Mar 04, 2025 100   Saint Louis W 77-70 73%    
  Mar 07, 2025 50   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 66-70 38%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.5 8.3 6.6 3.6 0.9 28.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.6 5.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 5.5 4.3 1.0 0.1 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.2 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.3 2.8 3.7 0.9 0.1 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 3.4 1.2 0.1 6.0 6th
7th 0.4 2.4 1.6 0.2 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.6 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.1 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.6 6.6 9.2 11.5 13.3 14.3 13.3 10.4 6.9 3.6 0.9 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
17-1 99.9% 3.6    3.5 0.1
16-2 95.2% 6.6    5.7 0.8 0.0
15-3 79.4% 8.3    5.6 2.4 0.3 0.0
14-4 48.6% 6.5    2.7 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 17.7% 2.5    0.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.8% 28.8 19.0 7.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.9% 96.0% 54.5% 41.5% 4.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.3%
17-1 3.6% 90.5% 48.5% 41.9% 5.9 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 81.5%
16-2 6.9% 78.3% 41.8% 36.5% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.5 62.7%
15-3 10.4% 60.2% 34.7% 25.5% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 0.3 4.2 39.1%
14-4 13.3% 44.5% 29.9% 14.6% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.7 0.6 0.0 7.4 20.8%
13-5 14.3% 29.8% 23.1% 6.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.4 0.9 0.0 0.0 10.1 8.7%
12-6 13.3% 20.4% 17.4% 3.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.0 10.6 3.6%
11-7 11.5% 11.9% 11.1% 0.8% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.0 10.1 0.9%
10-8 9.2% 6.8% 6.6% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 8.6 0.2%
9-9 6.6% 5.3% 5.2% 0.1% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.3 0.1%
8-10 4.6% 2.8% 2.8% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.4
7-11 2.6% 1.4% 1.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6
6-12 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
5-13 0.7% 1.1% 1.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 31.3% 20.8% 10.5% 9.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.1 3.1 4.9 9.8 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 68.7 13.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.1 35.5 32.3 22.6 9.7