George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.6#83
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#138
Pace64.4#295
Improvement+1.2#98

Offense
Total Offense+1.4#134
First Shot-0.9#194
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#53
Layup/Dunks+1.9#114
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#296
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#314
Freethrows+3.6#26
Improvement+0.3#156

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#47
First Shot+5.6#32
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#209
Layups/Dunks+6.0#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#221
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#220
Freethrows+0.6#153
Improvement+0.9#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.5% 15.9% 10.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 3.1% 0.6%
Average Seed 11.3 10.7 11.4
.500 or above 94.6% 99.1% 94.3%
.500 or above in Conference 86.3% 93.3% 85.9%
Conference Champion 11.6% 17.1% 11.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four0.4% 1.2% 0.3%
First Round10.4% 15.3% 10.1%
Second Round2.9% 5.2% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.5% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Duke (Away) - 5.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 4
Quad 23 - 33 - 7
Quad 37 - 410 - 10
Quad 410 - 220 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 258   NC Central W 75-58 91%     1 - 0 +8.5 -1.3 +10.3
  Nov 08, 2024 13   @ Marquette L 63-82 14%     1 - 1 -0.7 -3.8 +3.9
  Nov 11, 2024 309   Stony Brook W 94-56 94%     2 - 1 +26.9 +16.8 +10.4
  Nov 13, 2024 219   Central Michigan L 69-70 87%     2 - 2 -6.8 -4.1 -2.8
  Nov 16, 2024 164   @ East Carolina L 77-78 2OT 65%     2 - 3 +1.5 -2.3 +3.9
  Nov 20, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 93-55 99%     3 - 3 +16.9 +19.3 +0.1
  Nov 29, 2024 112   @ James Madison W 66-61 50%     4 - 3 +11.6 +1.3 +10.7
  Dec 03, 2024 182   UNC Asheville W 74-52 84%     5 - 3 +17.9 +3.2 +16.2
  Dec 07, 2024 203   Tulane W 76-64 86%     6 - 3 +6.9 +5.5 +2.2
  Dec 17, 2024 2   @ Duke L 58-75 5%    
  Dec 22, 2024 284   Penn W 75-59 94%    
  Dec 28, 2024 266   Mount St. Mary's W 76-61 92%    
  Dec 31, 2024 124   Davidson W 73-66 75%    
  Jan 04, 2025 98   @ Rhode Island L 70-72 44%    
  Jan 08, 2025 205   Richmond W 72-60 86%    
  Jan 11, 2025 200   Massachusetts W 76-65 85%    
  Jan 15, 2025 38   @ Dayton L 64-72 23%    
  Jan 18, 2025 144   George Washington W 75-66 79%    
  Jan 21, 2025 89   @ St. Bonaventure L 63-66 41%    
  Jan 29, 2025 104   Loyola Chicago W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 01, 2025 124   @ Davidson W 70-69 55%    
  Feb 05, 2025 144   @ George Washington W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 98   Rhode Island W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 11, 2025 135   @ Saint Louis W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 15, 2025 103   Saint Joseph's W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 22, 2025 55   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 62-68 29%    
  Feb 26, 2025 172   Fordham W 74-64 82%    
  Mar 01, 2025 198   @ Duquesne W 67-62 68%    
  Mar 05, 2025 155   La Salle W 75-66 80%    
  Mar 08, 2025 205   @ Richmond W 69-63 70%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 3.8 2.6 0.9 0.2 11.6 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 5.1 5.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.4 5.5 1.8 0.2 0.0 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.7 5.5 1.6 0.1 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.3 5.6 2.1 0.2 0.0 11.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 5.0 2.4 0.2 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.7 2.9 0.4 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.2 1.9 3.0 0.6 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 2.4 0.9 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.2 0.1 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.9 6.5 9.6 12.7 14.8 15.0 13.4 10.4 6.3 2.9 0.9 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 97.8% 0.9    0.8 0.1
16-2 87.8% 2.6    1.9 0.6 0.0
15-3 60.6% 3.8    2.0 1.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 29.2% 3.0    0.9 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 7.6% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.6% 11.6 5.9 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 80.0% 42.5% 37.5% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 65.2%
17-1 0.9% 53.8% 34.8% 19.1% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 29.2%
16-2 2.9% 35.9% 28.6% 7.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.9 10.3%
15-3 6.3% 24.5% 22.4% 2.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.8 2.7%
14-4 10.4% 18.7% 18.4% 0.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.8 0.0 8.5 0.4%
13-5 13.4% 14.6% 14.5% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.1 11.4 0.1%
12-6 15.0% 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 11.8 0.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 13.6 0.0%
11-7 14.8% 6.9% 6.9% 11.9 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 13.8
10-8 12.7% 3.7% 3.7% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 12.2
9-9 9.6% 3.2% 3.2% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 9.3
8-10 6.5% 1.7% 1.7% 12.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.4
7-11 3.9% 1.0% 1.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
6-12 2.0% 0.7% 0.7% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
5-13 0.9% 0.9
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 10.5% 9.9% 0.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 4.3 4.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 89.5 0.7%