Massachusetts
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#171
Expected Predictive Rating-3.3#224
Pace76.3#25
Improvement+2.4#77

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#199
First Shot-2.6#247
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#82
Layup/Dunks+2.4#95
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#194
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#331
Freethrows+0.6#135
Improvement+0.3#161

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#156
First Shot+0.7#157
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#215
Layups/Dunks-0.8#201
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#212
Freethrows-1.0#257
Improvement+2.1#70
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 14.5
.500 or above 4.1% 7.0% 1.2%
.500 or above in Conference 27.8% 39.5% 15.9%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 1.5% 6.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Washington (Home) - 50.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 62 - 9
Quad 35 - 76 - 16
Quad 46 - 412 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 351   New Hampshire W 103-74 91%     1 - 0 +13.4 +12.8 -2.9
  Nov 08, 2024 32   @ West Virginia L 69-75 8%     1 - 1 +9.7 +3.2 +6.7
  Nov 13, 2024 120   Louisiana Tech L 66-76 38%     1 - 2 -7.3 -6.7 -0.6
  Nov 16, 2024 174   Hofstra L 71-75 OT 61%     1 - 3 -7.2 -0.7 -6.3
  Nov 23, 2024 110   Temple L 80-87 36%     1 - 4 -3.8 +4.1 -7.6
  Nov 24, 2024 58   Florida St. L 59-92 17%     1 - 5 -23.4 -10.5 -11.8
  Nov 27, 2024 215   @ Harvard W 62-54 49%     2 - 5 +7.8 -5.0 +13.4
  Dec 01, 2024 355   NJIT W 80-68 92%     3 - 5 -4.3 +6.5 -10.3
  Dec 04, 2024 230   Central Connecticut St. L 69-73 73%     3 - 6 -10.7 -2.2 -8.5
  Dec 07, 2024 188   Umass Lowell L 83-96 64%     3 - 7 -17.0 -6.1 -9.0
  Dec 18, 2024 200   Northeastern W 77-72 66%     4 - 7 +0.4 -5.5 +5.4
  Dec 21, 2024 64   Arizona St. L 62-78 20%     4 - 8 -7.4 -6.7 -0.3
  Dec 31, 2024 90   @ Saint Joseph's L 72-81 19%     4 - 9 0 - 1 +0.0 +2.5 -2.2
  Jan 04, 2025 209   Richmond L 64-72 68%     4 - 10 0 - 2 -13.2 -5.9 -7.7
  Jan 08, 2025 78   Dayton W 76-72 32%     5 - 10 1 - 2 +8.5 +3.6 +4.9
  Jan 11, 2025 86   @ George Mason L 70-77 18%     5 - 11 1 - 3 +2.3 +5.4 -3.2
  Jan 15, 2025 221   @ Fordham W 120-118 3OT 51%     6 - 11 2 - 3 +1.4 +6.5 -5.7
  Jan 19, 2025 191   La Salle W 82-60 64%     7 - 11 3 - 3 +17.9 -2.5 +17.7
  Jan 22, 2025 119   George Washington L 77-78 50%    
  Jan 29, 2025 109   @ Rhode Island L 75-82 26%    
  Feb 01, 2025 116   @ Duquesne L 68-74 28%    
  Feb 04, 2025 102   Saint Louis L 77-79 44%    
  Feb 09, 2025 191   @ La Salle L 77-79 43%    
  Feb 12, 2025 121   Davidson L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 15, 2025 96   St. Bonaventure L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 19, 2025 49   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 66-80 9%    
  Feb 22, 2025 119   @ George Washington L 74-80 30%    
  Mar 01, 2025 109   Rhode Island L 78-79 47%    
  Mar 05, 2025 96   @ St. Bonaventure L 67-76 20%    
  Mar 08, 2025 136   Loyola Chicago W 77-76 53%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.8 4th
5th 0.3 2.5 0.9 0.1 3.7 5th
6th 0.0 2.3 2.8 0.2 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 5.2 1.2 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.1 3.0 4.5 0.2 7.8 8th
9th 1.1 6.5 1.9 9.5 9th
10th 0.2 4.6 6.1 0.4 11.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 2.7 8.3 2.1 0.0 13.2 11th
12th 0.0 1.5 7.6 5.2 0.2 14.5 12th
13th 0.1 1.1 5.4 5.9 1.0 13.3 13th
14th 0.6 2.6 3.5 1.1 0.0 7.9 14th
15th 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 15th
Total 1.0 4.3 10.7 17.5 20.3 18.5 14.6 7.7 3.7 1.4 0.4 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 33.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.4% 5.6% 5.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 1.4% 5.8% 5.8% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
11-7 3.7% 2.7% 2.7% 13.8 0.0 0.1 3.6
10-8 7.7% 0.8% 0.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 7.6
9-9 14.6% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.1 14.5
8-10 18.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 18.4
7-11 20.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.3
6-12 17.5% 17.5
5-13 10.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.7
4-14 4.3% 4.3
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%