Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#151
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#144
Pace75.2#40
Improvement+0.5#149

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#117
First Shot+4.7#59
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#312
Layup/Dunks+3.7#61
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#166
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#248
Freethrows+3.4#31
Improvement+0.5#140

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#227
First Shot-2.1#238
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#162
Layups/Dunks-5.0#339
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#85
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#153
Freethrows+0.9#125
Improvement+0.0#189
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.5% 29.3% 22.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 97.2% 97.9% 91.7%
.500 or above in Conference 94.5% 95.0% 91.0%
Conference Champion 40.5% 41.6% 32.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 1.3%
First Round28.1% 28.9% 22.0%
Second Round1.8% 1.9% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stonehill (Home) - 88.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 43 - 6
Quad 418 - 420 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 221   St. Peter's W 81-74 73%     1 - 0 +1.1 +7.3 -6.2
  Nov 15, 2024 3   @ Gonzaga L 54-113 3%     1 - 1 -35.8 -18.2 -8.6
  Nov 17, 2024 96   @ Washington L 69-74 22%     1 - 2 +3.6 +1.5 +2.1
  Nov 23, 2024 238   Quinnipiac W 80-70 76%     2 - 2 +3.0 +2.2 +0.5
  Nov 25, 2024 217   Merrimack W 81-74 72%     3 - 2 +1.2 +4.6 -3.7
  Nov 27, 2024 135   @ Saint Louis L 90-93 35%     3 - 3 +1.4 +19.6 -18.4
  Dec 01, 2024 222   @ Central Connecticut St. L 67-69 52%     3 - 4 -2.2 -3.6 +1.4
  Dec 07, 2024 200   @ Massachusetts W 96-83 47%     4 - 4 +14.2 +9.3 +3.0
  Dec 11, 2024 337   LIU Brooklyn W 69-62 90%     5 - 4 -6.8 -10.1 +3.1
  Dec 14, 2024 306   Dartmouth W 92-83 85%     6 - 4 -1.8 +14.0 -16.0
  Dec 18, 2024 323   Stonehill W 82-69 88%    
  Dec 21, 2024 252   Boston University W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 04, 2025 248   @ Albany W 83-81 58%    
  Jan 09, 2025 194   Vermont W 71-66 68%    
  Jan 11, 2025 351   NJIT W 80-64 93%    
  Jan 18, 2025 176   @ Bryant L 85-87 44%    
  Jan 23, 2025 213   Maine W 77-71 71%    
  Jan 25, 2025 354   New Hampshire W 83-67 93%    
  Jan 30, 2025 351   @ NJIT W 77-67 82%    
  Feb 01, 2025 255   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 88-85 59%    
  Feb 06, 2025 310   @ Binghamton W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 13, 2025 248   Albany W 86-78 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 354   @ New Hampshire W 80-70 83%    
  Feb 20, 2025 255   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 91-82 78%    
  Feb 22, 2025 194   @ Vermont L 68-69 46%    
  Feb 27, 2025 176   Bryant W 88-84 65%    
  Mar 01, 2025 310   Binghamton W 81-69 85%    
  Mar 04, 2025 213   @ Maine L 73-74 50%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 3.3 9.4 12.4 9.6 4.4 1.1 40.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.5 9.1 7.4 2.4 0.2 22.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 2.9 6.8 4.4 0.7 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 5.0 2.8 0.3 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.1 1.9 0.2 6.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.9 0.1 3.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.2 6.1 10.2 13.6 17.1 17.4 14.8 9.8 4.4 1.1 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
15-1 100.0% 4.4    4.3 0.0
14-2 97.7% 9.6    8.7 0.9 0.0
13-3 83.8% 12.4    8.8 3.5 0.2 0.0
12-4 53.7% 9.4    4.0 4.2 1.1 0.1
11-5 19.4% 3.3    0.6 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0
10-6 2.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 40.5% 40.5 27.4 10.2 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.1% 58.8% 58.8% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-1 4.4% 52.4% 52.4% 12.9 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.1
14-2 9.8% 44.6% 44.6% 13.5 0.3 2.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.4
13-3 14.8% 39.2% 39.2% 14.0 0.1 1.4 3.0 1.3 0.1 9.0
12-4 17.4% 31.8% 31.8% 14.4 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.3 0.2 11.9
11-5 17.1% 25.5% 25.5% 14.8 0.1 1.2 2.4 0.5 12.7
10-6 13.6% 19.6% 19.6% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.6 0.7 11.0
9-7 10.2% 16.1% 16.1% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 8.6
8-8 6.1% 12.1% 12.1% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 5.4
7-9 3.2% 8.1% 8.1% 15.8 0.0 0.2 2.9
6-10 1.4% 8.6% 8.6% 16.0 0.1 1.3
5-11 0.6% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-12 0.2% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 28.5% 28.5% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.4 9.4 9.1 3.0 71.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 11.8 0.7 26.6 65.7 7.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%