Gonzaga
West Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+20.2#3
Expected Predictive Rating+15.0#32
Pace71.3#112
Improvement-5.9#364

Offense
Total Offense+12.8#2
First Shot+9.7#4
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#32
Layup/Dunks+7.6#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#252
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#190
Freethrows+3.9#18
Improvement-4.4#364

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#14
First Shot+4.4#56
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#17
Layups/Dunks-3.7#313
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#181
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.7#5
Freethrows+0.1#176
Improvement-1.5#298
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.3% 3.4% 0.4%
#1 Seed 19.8% 19.9% 6.1%
Top 2 Seed 39.6% 39.7% 15.2%
Top 4 Seed 68.6% 68.7% 47.2%
Top 6 Seed 85.3% 85.3% 68.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.0% 99.0% 96.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.8% 96.9% 90.4%
Average Seed 3.7 3.7 5.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 85.8% 85.8% 77.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 2.2%
First Round98.8% 98.8% 94.8%
Second Round90.0% 90.0% 81.8%
Sweet Sixteen64.4% 64.4% 52.4%
Elite Eight41.0% 41.1% 29.0%
Final Four24.9% 25.0% 16.0%
Championship Game14.4% 14.4% 8.7%
National Champion8.0% 8.0% 4.3%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Home) - 99.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b4 - 26 - 4
Quad 27 - 113 - 5
Quad 36 - 019 - 5
Quad 49 - 027 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 12   Baylor W 101-63 76%     1 - 0 +50.9 +30.7 +20.1
  Nov 10, 2024 61   Arizona St. W 88-80 90%     2 - 0 +14.1 +16.9 -3.0
  Nov 15, 2024 151   Umass Lowell W 113-54 97%     3 - 0 +56.4 +19.6 +27.7
  Nov 18, 2024 45   @ San Diego St. W 80-67 73%     4 - 0 +27.0 +16.4 +10.7
  Nov 20, 2024 272   Long Beach St. W 84-41 99%     5 - 0 +34.1 +15.0 +23.6
  Nov 27, 2024 42   West Virginia L 78-86 OT 80%     5 - 1 +3.4 +4.8 -0.7
  Nov 28, 2024 46   Indiana W 89-73 81%     6 - 1 +26.8 +15.3 +10.5
  Nov 29, 2024 124   Davidson W 90-65 94%     7 - 1 +27.3 +13.6 +13.0
  Dec 07, 2024 11   Kentucky L 89-90 OT 61%     7 - 2 +16.4 +17.1 -0.7
  Dec 14, 2024 9   Connecticut L 71-77 60%     7 - 3 +11.5 +4.7 +6.6
  Dec 18, 2024 243   Nicholls St. W 89-61 99.5%   
  Dec 21, 2024 260   Bucknell W 87-58 99.7%   
  Dec 28, 2024 17   UCLA W 73-68 68%    
  Dec 30, 2024 226   @ Pepperdine W 87-66 97%    
  Jan 02, 2025 312   Portland W 92-61 99.8%   
  Jan 04, 2025 189   @ Loyola Marymount W 83-64 96%    
  Jan 08, 2025 315   San Diego W 93-61 99.8%   
  Jan 11, 2025 68   Washington St. W 86-71 92%    
  Jan 16, 2025 67   @ Oregon St. W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 18, 2025 78   Santa Clara W 86-70 93%    
  Jan 25, 2025 312   @ Portland W 89-64 99%    
  Jan 28, 2025 67   Oregon St. W 80-65 91%    
  Feb 01, 2025 41   @ St. Mary's W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 06, 2025 189   Loyola Marymount W 86-61 99%    
  Feb 08, 2025 264   @ Pacific W 87-64 98%    
  Feb 13, 2025 56   San Francisco W 81-67 89%    
  Feb 15, 2025 226   Pepperdine W 90-63 99%    
  Feb 19, 2025 68   @ Washington St. W 83-74 80%    
  Feb 22, 2025 41   St. Mary's W 76-64 85%    
  Feb 27, 2025 78   @ Santa Clara W 83-73 82%    
  Mar 01, 2025 56   @ San Francisco W 78-70 75%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 16 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.6 11.3 23.5 28.7 19.5 85.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.0 3.8 1.1 10.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.7 0.1 2.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.1 7.4 15.2 24.6 28.7 19.5 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 19.5    19.5
17-1 100.0% 28.7    28.1 0.6
16-2 95.5% 23.5    19.9 3.6 0.0
15-3 74.3% 11.3    6.3 4.5 0.5 0.0
14-4 35.4% 2.6    0.7 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 85.8% 85.8 74.5 9.9 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 19.5% 100.0% 79.8% 20.2% 1.5 11.2 6.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 28.7% 100.0% 73.4% 26.6% 2.3 7.7 10.1 6.5 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-2 24.6% 99.8% 67.7% 32.1% 3.8 0.9 3.1 6.2 7.3 4.1 1.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
15-3 15.2% 99.5% 61.9% 37.6% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 3.8 3.3 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.6%
14-4 7.4% 97.4% 55.0% 42.4% 7.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.2 94.2%
13-5 3.1% 90.7% 41.2% 49.5% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 84.2%
12-6 1.1% 80.4% 31.2% 49.2% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 71.5%
11-7 0.3% 64.0% 23.3% 40.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 53.0%
10-8 0.1% 50.0% 28.3% 21.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.3%
9-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.0% 68.5% 30.5% 3.7 19.8 19.7 15.1 13.9 9.6 7.1 5.2 3.8 2.4 1.7 0.6 0.0 1.0 96.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.6% 100.0% 1.4 67.0 29.1 3.7 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.6% 100.0% 1.7 46.6 40.0 10.9 2.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2% 100.0% 1.9 34.4 44.7 17.2 3.3 0.5