Gonzaga
West Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.7#14
Expected Predictive Rating+11.2#51
Pace74.3#50
Improvement-10.5#364

Offense
Total Offense+12.1#5
First Shot+9.7#9
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#48
Layup/Dunks+7.9#6
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#189
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#190
Freethrows+2.4#48
Improvement-3.7#342

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#58
First Shot+2.5#100
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#41
Layups/Dunks-0.7#194
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#203
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#105
Freethrows+1.3#90
Improvement-6.8#363
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.6% 1.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 4.6% 4.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 14.4% 14.7% 1.7%
Top 6 Seed 37.0% 37.4% 14.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.2% 92.4% 84.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 83.3% 83.6% 73.8%
Average Seed 6.9 6.9 8.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.4%
Conference Champion 54.9% 55.3% 29.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.2% 3.2% 7.3%
First Round91.0% 91.2% 83.1%
Second Round64.7% 65.0% 48.3%
Sweet Sixteen29.3% 29.5% 20.2%
Elite Eight14.2% 14.3% 10.7%
Final Four5.8% 5.9% 2.8%
Championship Game2.3% 2.4% 0.6%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland (Away) - 98.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 6
Quad 26 - 210 - 8
Quad 35 - 015 - 8
Quad 49 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 22   Baylor W 101-63 66%     1 - 0 +50.5 +32.1 +18.2
  Nov 10, 2024 64   Arizona St. W 88-80 84%     2 - 0 +13.8 +17.3 -3.7
  Nov 15, 2024 188   Umass Lowell W 113-54 96%     3 - 0 +55.0 +19.1 +26.8
  Nov 18, 2024 47   @ San Diego St. W 80-67 62%     4 - 0 +26.6 +19.1 +7.7
  Nov 20, 2024 293   Long Beach St. W 84-41 99%     5 - 0 +32.6 +13.6 +23.6
  Nov 27, 2024 32   West Virginia L 78-86 OT 64%     5 - 1 +4.9 +6.4 -0.7
  Nov 28, 2024 56   Indiana W 89-73 74%     6 - 1 +26.0 +16.6 +8.4
  Nov 29, 2024 121   Davidson W 90-65 90%     7 - 1 +27.7 +13.5 +13.5
  Dec 07, 2024 15   Kentucky L 89-90 OT 50%     7 - 2 +15.6 +15.0 +0.7
  Dec 14, 2024 24   Connecticut L 71-77 56%     7 - 3 +9.0 +2.8 +6.2
  Dec 18, 2024 205   Nicholls St. W 102-72 97%     8 - 3 +25.1 +16.5 +5.7
  Dec 21, 2024 265   Bucknell W 86-65 98%     9 - 3 +12.3 +4.7 +5.7
  Dec 28, 2024 31   UCLA L 62-65 64%     9 - 4 +10.0 +2.0 +7.8
  Dec 30, 2024 203   @ Pepperdine W 89-82 92%     10 - 4 1 - 0 +7.6 +11.2 -4.0
  Jan 02, 2025 308   Portland W 81-50 99%     11 - 4 2 - 0 +20.0 +2.5 +17.8
  Jan 04, 2025 152   @ Loyola Marymount W 96-68 89%     12 - 4 3 - 0 +31.6 +22.4 +7.9
  Jan 08, 2025 290   San Diego W 93-80 99%     13 - 4 4 - 0 +2.8 +12.5 -10.4
  Jan 11, 2025 85   Washington St. W 88-75 88%     14 - 4 5 - 0 +17.0 +18.1 -1.0
  Jan 16, 2025 70   @ Oregon St. L 89-97 OT 72%     14 - 5 5 - 1 +2.6 +12.2 -8.9
  Jan 18, 2025 67   Santa Clara L 99-103 85%     14 - 6 5 - 2 +1.6 +15.3 -13.2
  Jan 25, 2025 308   @ Portland W 92-70 98%    
  Jan 28, 2025 70   Oregon St. W 83-71 87%    
  Feb 01, 2025 35   @ St. Mary's W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 06, 2025 152   Loyola Marymount W 86-67 96%    
  Feb 08, 2025 302   @ Pacific W 91-69 98%    
  Feb 13, 2025 75   San Francisco W 85-73 87%    
  Feb 15, 2025 203   Pepperdine W 91-69 98%    
  Feb 19, 2025 85   @ Washington St. W 86-79 75%    
  Feb 22, 2025 35   St. Mary's W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 27, 2025 67   @ Santa Clara W 85-79 69%    
  Mar 01, 2025 75   @ San Francisco W 82-75 72%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 2.0 15.4 24.6 12.8 54.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 12.4 13.7 3.4 31.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 4.6 4.0 0.2 9.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 2.1 0.1 3.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.1 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.7 8.2 18.4 29.4 28.0 12.8 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 12.8    12.2 0.6
15-3 87.8% 24.6    18.1 6.5
14-4 52.6% 15.4    5.0 8.4 2.0 0.1
13-5 10.7% 2.0    0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 54.9% 54.9 35.4 16.0 2.9 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 12.8% 100.0% 67.2% 32.8% 3.3 1.6 2.9 3.1 2.5 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-3 28.0% 98.9% 60.7% 38.2% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.5 6.0 7.9 5.6 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.3 97.2%
14-4 29.4% 95.2% 54.5% 40.7% 7.7 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.6 7.2 7.3 5.2 2.2 0.3 1.4 89.4%
13-5 18.4% 86.7% 42.9% 43.8% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 3.8 4.6 4.5 1.2 2.5 76.7%
12-6 8.2% 73.5% 33.5% 40.1% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.4 2.1 1.4 0.0 2.2 60.2%
11-7 2.7% 56.6% 31.7% 24.9% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 1.2 36.5%
10-8 0.4% 50.0% 22.7% 27.3% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 35.3%
9-9 0.1% 0.0 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 92.2% 53.2% 39.0% 6.9 1.6 3.0 3.8 6.1 8.6 13.9 14.6 15.1 12.4 9.6 3.6 0.0 7.8 83.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.6% 100.0% 2.5 18.3 32.5 31.9 15.4 1.7 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.4% 100.0% 4.8 3.4 8.0 30.0 33.3 19.4 5.1 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8% 100.0% 5.1 0.5 6.5 22.8 31.5 27.2 10.3 1.1