Gonzaga
West Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.3#4
Expected Predictive Rating+22.7#4
Pace71.3#120
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+13.8#1
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#37
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.3% 5.4% 1.5%
#1 Seed 24.8% 25.2% 9.4%
Top 2 Seed 46.5% 47.1% 21.0%
Top 4 Seed 72.0% 72.6% 47.5%
Top 6 Seed 85.3% 85.8% 65.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.8% 98.0% 91.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.5% 93.9% 81.6%
Average Seed 3.4 3.4 5.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 81.9% 82.2% 68.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 2.6%
First Round97.4% 97.6% 90.3%
Second Round86.6% 87.0% 69.2%
Sweet Sixteen61.5% 62.0% 41.1%
Elite Eight39.2% 39.6% 22.4%
Final Four23.7% 24.1% 9.7%
Championship Game14.1% 14.3% 5.8%
National Champion7.9% 8.1% 2.2%

Next Game: Umass Lowell (Home) - 97.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 22 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 15 - 3
Quad 26 - 111 - 3
Quad 37 - 018 - 4
Quad 49 - 027 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 13   Baylor W 101-63 75%     1 - 0 +50.1 +31.2 +18.7
  Nov 10, 2024 72   Arizona St. W 88-80 91%     2 - 0 +12.8 +16.8 -4.1
  Nov 15, 2024 138   Umass Lowell W 91-70 98%    
  Nov 18, 2024 55   @ San Diego St. W 76-69 75%    
  Nov 20, 2024 250   Long Beach St. W 95-68 99%    
  Nov 27, 2024 57   West Virginia W 83-73 83%    
  Dec 07, 2024 12   Kentucky W 86-83 61%    
  Dec 14, 2024 1   Connecticut L 73-74 46%    
  Dec 18, 2024 212   Nicholls St. W 88-63 99%    
  Dec 21, 2024 242   Bucknell W 89-63 99%    
  Dec 28, 2024 30   UCLA W 75-68 73%    
  Dec 30, 2024 229   @ Pepperdine W 88-68 96%    
  Jan 02, 2025 307   Portland W 92-62 99.6%   
  Jan 04, 2025 164   @ Loyola Marymount W 82-66 92%    
  Jan 08, 2025 277   San Diego W 93-65 99%    
  Jan 11, 2025 75   Washington St. W 88-73 90%    
  Jan 16, 2025 103   @ Oregon St. W 79-68 84%    
  Jan 18, 2025 111   Santa Clara W 89-71 94%    
  Jan 25, 2025 307   @ Portland W 89-65 98%    
  Jan 28, 2025 103   Oregon St. W 82-65 93%    
  Feb 01, 2025 40   @ St. Mary's W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 06, 2025 164   Loyola Marymount W 85-63 97%    
  Feb 08, 2025 284   @ Pacific W 90-67 97%    
  Feb 13, 2025 69   San Francisco W 84-70 89%    
  Feb 15, 2025 229   Pepperdine W 91-65 98%    
  Feb 19, 2025 75   @ Washington St. W 85-76 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 40   St. Mary's W 79-68 83%    
  Feb 27, 2025 111   @ Santa Clara W 86-74 85%    
  Mar 01, 2025 69   @ San Francisco W 81-73 75%    
Projected Record 25 - 4 16 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.4 9.4 20.4 27.2 22.2 81.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.4 4.4 1.7 12.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.6 1.0 0.1 3.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.9 3.9 7.8 13.9 22.0 27.2 22.2 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 22.2    22.2
17-1 100.0% 27.2    26.3 0.9
16-2 92.5% 20.4    16.4 3.9 0.0
15-3 67.6% 9.4    5.3 3.6 0.5 0.0
14-4 31.2% 2.4    0.7 1.2 0.5 0.1
13-5 7.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 81.9% 81.9 70.9 9.7 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 22.2% 100.0% 81.6% 18.4% 1.5 13.6 6.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 27.2% 100.0% 73.7% 26.3% 2.1 9.4 9.6 4.8 2.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-2 22.0% 99.8% 66.0% 33.7% 3.5 1.7 4.8 5.6 5.1 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
15-3 13.9% 98.8% 56.4% 42.4% 5.2 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.0 3.0 2.2 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.4%
14-4 7.8% 95.4% 45.9% 49.5% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.4 91.5%
13-5 3.9% 87.9% 35.1% 52.8% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.5 81.3%
12-6 1.9% 71.7% 25.6% 46.2% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.5 62.0%
11-7 0.7% 54.4% 18.9% 35.4% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 43.7%
10-8 0.3% 32.6% 10.5% 22.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 24.7%
9-9 0.1% 24.0% 8.0% 16.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 17.4%
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.8% 66.1% 31.7% 3.4 24.8 21.7 14.0 11.6 7.7 5.6 3.5 2.7 2.5 2.2 1.4 0.2 2.2 93.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.3% 100.0% 1.3 74.6 24.3 1.0 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 100.0% 1.3 74.6 23.2 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.4 67.1 27.1 5.9