Gonzaga
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +20.6 #6
Expected Predictive Rating +26.4 #5
Pace 74.3 #51
Improvement -4.1 #338

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #8 A+ A A C- D+
Defense #12 A+ A+ A B- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #135 1.39 #7 +5.7 #22
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #56 0.89 #37 +4.4 #22
Three Pointers 32% #336 1.15 #25 -2.1 #263
1st FG Attempt 1.18 #18 +7.9 #18
Freethrows 16.9 #233 70% #262 11.8 #243
Second Chance 37.7% #23 1.15 #54 0.43 #24
Turnovers 13.4% #23
Total Offense +11.2 #8

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #356 1.04 #42 +7.7 #9
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #18 0.67 #58 -1.8 #319
Three Pointers 43% #113 0.86 #25 +2.2 #108
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #10 +8.1 #10
Freethrows 16.8 #134 68% #33 11.4 #84
Second Chance 23.4% #9 0.89 #23 0.21 #6
Turnovers 20.4% #19
Total Defense +9.4 #12

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.5% #284 -3.5% #12
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 17.2% #7 -12.7% #15
Possession Length 15.0 #18 18.4 #327
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #31 0.11 #29
Improvement -1.0 #235 -3.1 #333

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.9% 2.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 14.1% 14.5% 1.4%
Top 2 Seed 33.9% 34.9% 7.7%
Top 4 Seed 79.0% 80.0% 51.5%
Top 6 Seed 98.2% 98.4% 92.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
Average Seed 3.3 3.2 4.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 95.0% 95.3% 85.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round95.2% 95.5% 87.6%
Sweet Sixteen65.3% 65.7% 53.0%
Elite Eight35.7% 36.1% 24.6%
Final Four18.7% 19.0% 11.1%
Championship Game9.4% 9.6% 5.2%
National Champion4.4% 4.5% 2.3%

Next Game: San Francisco (Home) - 96.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b4 - 15 - 2
Quad 28 - 014 - 2
Quad 39 - 023 - 2
Quad 48 - 031 - 2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 335 Texas Southern W 98 - 43 100% +20  1 - 0 +41 +15 C+ A+ F +24 A+ A- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 57 Oklahoma W 83 - 68 89% +13  2 - 0 +22 +7 B C+ A+ +14 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 44 Creighton W 90 - 63 87% +11  3 - 0 +35 +15 A+ C A+ +19 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 88 @Arizona St. W 77 - 65 85% +7  4 - 0 +21 +7 C B C- +14 A+ A- C
 Mon, Nov 17 284 Southern Utah W 122 - 50 99% +34  5 - 0 +62 +28 A+ A+ A- +23 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 17 Alabama W 95 - 85 61% +1  6 - 0 +28 +19 B+ A+ C+ +8 C+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 100 Maryland W 100 - 61 92% +19  7 - 0 +44 +30 A+ A+ C +14 A+ B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 1 Michigan L 61 - 101 33% -25  7 - 1 -15 -7 D+ D+ A+ -3 F A+ A
 Fri, Dec 5 25 Kentucky W 94 - 59 67% +21  8 - 1 +51 +28 A+ A A+ +23 A+ A+ B-
 Sun, Dec 7 350 North Florida W 109 - 58 100% +26  9 - 1 +36 +13 A A+ D- +17 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 36 UCLA W 82 - 72 75% +2  10 - 1 +23 +20 A+ F A+ +4 C A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 17 190 Campbell W 98 - 70 98% +14  11 - 1 +23 +7 A+ C+ D +12 B+ A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 68 Oregon W 91 - 82 87% +4  12 - 1 +17 +25 A+ B- A+ -7 C D+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 279 @Pepperdine W 96 - 56 98% +22  13 - 1 1 - 0 +36 +23 A+ B- A+ +13 A+ C C+
 Tue, Dec 30 209 @San Diego W 99 - 93 96% +10  14 - 1 2 - 0 +6 +14 A- A+ C -9 F A F
 Fri, Jan 2 121 Seattle W 80 - 72 OT 96% -6  15 - 1 3 - 0 +8 +6 B- C+ A+ +1 A- C- B
 Sun, Jan 4 155 Loyola Marymount W 82 - 47 97% +15  16 - 1 4 - 0 +32 +12 A+ A- A+ +21 A+ A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 8 54 Santa Clara W 89 - 77 89% +6  17 - 1 5 - 0 +19 +15 A+ A+ A+ +4 A A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 141 @Washington St. W 86 - 65 93% +10  18 - 1 6 - 0 +25 +16 C+ A+ A- +10 D+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 121 @Seattle W 71 - 50 91% +8  19 - 1 7 - 0 +27 +7 B- A+ C +20 A+ C+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 279 Pepperdine W 84 - 60 99% +15  20 - 1 8 - 0 +14 +10 D- A+ A+ +5 B B A
 Sat, Jan 24 101 San Francisco W 85 - 66 96%
 Sat, Jan 31 42 St. Mary's W 80 - 69 86%
 Wed, Feb 4 210 @Portland W 89 - 68 98%
 Sat, Feb 7 195 @Oregon St. W 85 - 65 97%
 Tue, Feb 10 141 Washington St. W 91 - 69 98%
 Sat, Feb 14 54 @Santa Clara W 84 - 77 75%
 Wed, Feb 18 101 @San Francisco W 82 - 69 89%
 Sat, Feb 21 132 Pacific W 87 - 65 98%
 Wed, Feb 25 210 Portland W 92 - 65 99%
 Sat, Feb 28 42 @St. Mary's W 77 - 72 70%
Totals 29 - 2 17 - 1 +21 +11 A+ A A +9 A+ A+ A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.4 16.4 39.0 37.1 95.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.4 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.9 5.1 17.8 39.0 37.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 37.1    37.1
17-1 100.0% 39.0    38.2 0.9
16-2 92.1% 16.4    10.4 5.7 0.3
15-3 47.6% 2.4    0.7 1.4 0.3
14-4 7.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 95.0% 95.0 86.4 7.9 0.7



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 37.1% 100.0% 80.6% 19.4% 2.0 12.4 13.9 7.7 2.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-1 39.0% 100.0% 76.2% 23.8% 3.5 1.6 5.5 11.5 13.7 5.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 99.9%
16-2 17.8% 100.0% 69.5% 30.5% 4.5 0.1 0.4 2.2 6.0 5.8 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 5.1% 99.9% 59.7% 40.2% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-4 0.9% 99.4% 55.8% 43.6% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
13-5 0.1% 100.0% 71.4% 28.6% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 75.6% 24.4% 3.3 0.0 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 29.9% 100.0% 1.9 38.3 39.9 17.7 3.9 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.5% 100.0% 2.7 14.0 27.8 33.5 21.8 2.4 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7% 100.0% 2.8 12.1 26.3 34.1 22.4 4.8 0.3