Preseason Rankings
Gonzaga
West Coast
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.6#19
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.3#45
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+10.6#12
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.0#40
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
#1 Seed 4.1% 4.1% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 10.0% 10.1% 2.0%
Top 4 Seed 24.9% 25.0% 5.8%
Top 6 Seed 39.4% 39.6% 7.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 79.3% 79.4% 53.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 53.7% 54.0% 21.9%
Average Seed 6.4 6.4 8.5
.500 or above 99.4% 99.4% 94.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.7% 98.7%
Conference Champion 68.9% 69.0% 54.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.8% 3.8% 2.6%
First Round77.5% 77.7% 52.4%
Second Round56.1% 56.2% 31.0%
Sweet Sixteen28.4% 28.6% 8.4%
Elite Eight13.7% 13.8% 2.6%
Final Four6.4% 6.4% 2.0%
Championship Game3.0% 3.0% 0.6%
National Champion1.5% 1.5% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Southern (Home) - 99.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 4
Quad 26 - 210 - 6
Quad 37 - 117 - 6
Quad 49 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 285   Texas Southern W 91-64 99%    
  Nov 08, 2025 47   Oklahoma W 83-75 78%    
  Nov 11, 2025 24   Creighton W 80-76 66%    
  Nov 14, 2025 68   @ Arizona St. W 80-75 68%    
  Nov 17, 2025 268   Southern Utah W 90-65 99%    
  Nov 24, 2025 18   Alabama L 87-88 50%    
  Nov 25, 2025 40   Maryland W 80-76 62%    
  Dec 05, 2025 7   Kentucky L 81-84 41%    
  Dec 07, 2025 330   North Florida W 100-70 99.5%   
  Dec 13, 2025 14   UCLA L 73-74 47%    
  Dec 17, 2025 203   Campbell W 85-63 97%    
  Dec 21, 2025 28   Oregon W 78-76 58%    
  Dec 28, 2025 239   @ Pepperdine W 88-70 94%    
  Dec 30, 2025 183   @ San Diego W 90-75 90%    
  Jan 02, 2026 121   Seattle W 81-64 93%    
  Jan 04, 2026 136   Loyola Marymount W 85-67 94%    
  Jan 08, 2026 105   Santa Clara W 87-72 90%    
  Jan 15, 2026 124   @ Washington St. W 87-76 83%    
  Jan 17, 2026 121   @ Seattle W 78-67 83%    
  Jan 21, 2026 239   Pepperdine W 91-67 98%    
  Jan 24, 2026 75   San Francisco W 83-71 85%    
  Jan 31, 2026 49   St. Mary's W 72-63 76%    
  Feb 04, 2026 262   @ Portland W 89-70 94%    
  Feb 07, 2026 113   @ Oregon St. W 78-68 80%    
  Feb 10, 2026 124   Washington St. W 90-73 92%    
  Feb 14, 2026 105   @ Santa Clara W 84-75 77%    
  Feb 18, 2026 75   @ San Francisco W 80-74 70%    
  Feb 21, 2026 219   Pacific W 87-64 97%    
  Feb 25, 2026 262   Portland W 92-67 98%    
  Feb 28, 2026 49   @ St. Mary's W 69-66 58%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 16 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.3 10.2 18.2 22.0 14.6 68.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.1 6.2 5.8 2.5 0.0 18.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 2.1 2.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 7.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.3 4.2 6.9 11.1 16.2 20.7 22.0 14.6 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 14.6    14.6
17-1 99.9% 22.0    20.6 1.3
16-2 87.9% 18.2    14.2 4.0 0.1
15-3 62.7% 10.2    5.8 3.9 0.5 0.0
14-4 30.1% 3.3    1.1 1.6 0.6 0.1
13-5 8.5% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 68.9% 68.9 56.3 11.1 1.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 14.6% 99.0% 78.2% 20.8% 3.0 3.3 3.6 2.8 2.0 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 95.5%
17-1 22.0% 97.0% 69.7% 27.3% 5.0 0.8 2.1 3.3 4.1 3.2 2.6 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.6 90.2%
16-2 20.7% 91.2% 60.7% 30.6% 7.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.2 0.7 0.0 1.8 77.7%
15-3 16.2% 79.3% 50.4% 28.9% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.5 3.3 1.7 0.1 3.4 58.2%
14-4 11.1% 63.1% 39.8% 23.3% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.4 1.8 0.1 4.1 38.7%
13-5 6.9% 44.0% 29.3% 14.7% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.2 3.9 20.8%
12-6 4.2% 28.1% 20.7% 7.3% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.0 9.3%
11-7 2.3% 15.8% 12.4% 3.4% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.9 3.9%
10-8 1.1% 8.5% 7.7% 0.7% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.8%
9-9 0.6% 6.6% 5.9% 0.7% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.8%
8-10 0.2% 2.3% 2.3% 14.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.1% 6.7% 6.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 79.3% 55.2% 24.1% 6.4 4.1 5.9 6.9 8.0 7.3 7.3 7.2 7.5 8.0 10.3 6.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.7 53.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 1.5 58.7 33.5 7.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.0 34.4 43.8 12.4 9.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.9 41.8 33.1 16.8 8.3