Portland
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.7 206
Expected Predictive Rating -0.7 176
Pace 70.6 127
Improvement +0.7 157

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #243 C B- D- C C+
Defense C #172 C+ C- C+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 83 61% 100 +3.5 70
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 203 37% 189 -0.6 210
Three Pointers 38% 233 30% 317 -3.4 299
1st FG Attempt 1.01 190 -0.5 190
Second Chance 30.1% 194 1.17 34 0.35 91
Turnovers 19.6% 328
Freethrows 0.29 225 74% 132 0.22 195
Total Offense -2.6 243

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 255 58% 193 +1.2 132
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 260 30% 5 +2.5 13
Three Pointers 46% 47 34% 194 -2.7 300
1st FG Attempt 1.00 138 +1.1 138
Second Chance 31.8% 237 1.04 212 0.33 239
Turnovers 17.5% 145
Freethrows 0.30 169 73% 227 0.22 169
Total Defense -0.1 172

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.4 133 +0.2 198
Shot Type Accuracy -0.9 204 -1.2 132
Possession Length 17.0 142 17.2 172
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 264 0.19 228
Improvement +1.1 #122 -0.4 #211

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 2%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Home) - 77.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 4
Quad 20 - 71 - 11
Quad 34 - 56 - 16
Quad 46 - 212 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 313 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 83 - 74 81% +10  92% 1 - 0 C- -3 F -11 D+ F+ F B+ +7 A D A
 Sun, Nov 9 180 UC Davis W 67 - 63 56% -0  49% 2 - 0 C -0 F -10 F+ D+ F A- +10 A+ F+ A
 Sat, Nov 15 106 @Wyoming L 56 - 93 17% -16  1% 2 - 1 F -30 F -17 F D D+ F -13 C F D
 Fri, Nov 21 210 Cal St. Fullerton W 103 - 85 62% +13  94% 3 - 1 B+ +12 A+ +15 A+ A+ B D+ -5 F B+ C+
 Sat, Nov 22 175 Northern Colorado L 80 - 86 OT 55% -2  14% 3 - 2 D -10 F+ -9 D- A+ F C +0 B D+ D-
 Sun, Nov 23 123 St. Thomas L 66 - 76 41% -5  1% 3 - 3 D -11 F -12 C B+ F C+ +2 A- F D
 Wed, Nov 26 251 Long Beach St. W 93 - 73 70% +11  94% 4 - 3 B+ +12 A +11 A+ C F+ C +0 B C- C+
 Mon, Dec 1 74 @Stanford L 72 - 94 11% -14  7% 4 - 4 D- -11 C+ +2 A B F F -14 D F F+
 Sun, Dec 14 147 Kent St. W 88 - 78 48% +0  46% 5 - 4 B- +8 C- -2 B+ D+ F+ A- +9 A- D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 80 @Oregon L 69 - 94 12% -11  2% 5 - 5 F+ -15 F+ -9 D C+ F C- -3 F B B
 Mon, Dec 22 133 @UC Santa Barbara L 61 - 79 24% -11  8% 5 - 6 D- -13 F+ -9 F A+ F D -6 F D B
 Sun, Dec 28 125 Washington St. L 62 - 67 43% -3  21% 5 - 7 0 - 1 D+ -6 F -15 F A A+ A- +9 A A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 44 Santa Clara L 85 - 92 14% -1  49% 5 - 8 0 - 2 C+ +2 A- +11 A+ A C D- -8 F+ B A-
 Fri, Jan 2 40 @St. Mary's L 57 - 78 5% -14  1% 5 - 9 0 - 3 D+ -5 D -4 D- C B- C- -2 D- B C-
 Sun, Jan 4 107 @San Francisco L 68 - 73 17% +4  69% 5 - 10 0 - 4 C+ +2 D+ -2 B- F F B +4 A C C-
 Thu, Jan 8 115 Pacific W 90 - 89 OT 39% +4  74% 6 - 10 1 - 4 C +1 A- +11 A- A+ F+ F+ -10 C+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 178 Oregon St. W 82 - 76 55% -2  33% 7 - 10 2 - 4 C+ +2 A- +10 C A- A- D- -7 D+ B F+
 Wed, Jan 14 291 @Pepperdine L 63 - 67 57% -0  43% 7 - 11 2 - 5 D -9 F -10 F+ F+ C- C+ +2 C F C+
 Sat, Jan 17 151 @Loyola Marymount W 71 - 58 27% +11  90% 8 - 11 3 - 5 A- +16 C +0 B- D+ D+ A+ +16 A+ C B+
 Sat, Jan 24 40 St. Mary's L 69 - 75 12% -4  1% 8 - 12 3 - 6 C+ +4 B- +4 B- B+ B- C -1 C- A+ B
 Wed, Jan 28 115 @Pacific L 51 - 74 20% -15  2% 8 - 13 3 - 7 F+ -17 F -16 F F F C- -3 C+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 31 125 @Washington St. L 74 - 104 23% -15  3% 8 - 14 3 - 8 F -25 D+ -3 D- A+ B F -21 F F F
 Wed, Feb 4 13 Gonzaga W 87 - 80 5% +6  94% 9 - 14 4 - 8 A+ +23 A+ +15 A+ B+ D B+ +8 A+ B- D+
 Sat, Feb 7 132 Seattle W 54 - 53 44% -4  26% 10 - 14 5 - 8 C -0 F+ -9 F A+ B- A- +9 A- C+ A+
 Wed, Feb 11 216 @San Diego L 58 - 71 39% -2  46% 10 - 15 5 - 9 D- -13 F -12 F C- F C- -2 F A B
 Wed, Feb 18 291 Pepperdine W 76 - 68 77%
 Sat, Feb 21 132 @Seattle L 64 - 72 24%
 Wed, Feb 25 13 @Gonzaga L 64 - 89 1%
 Sat, Feb 28 216 San Diego W 78 - 75 62%
Totals 12 - 17 7 - 11 -3 C- -3 C B- D- C +0 C+ C- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B- C- D C- 42% 19% 38% C+ C C B+ B- D- C- C+ C C C A C C+ 36% 18% 46% C- C+ C- C- C- C+ C+ C- C
1.05 61% 37% 30% -1 0 1.01 30% 1.2 .35 20% .29 74% .22 1.09 58% 30% 34% -1 0 1.00 32% 1.0 .33 17% .30 73% .21
Nov
6		 Arkansas Pine Bluff F A- B- F D 42% 9% 49% B D+ F B F+ F A+ B A+ B+ B A+ B A+ 36% 18% 46% D A B- F D A F F F
1.01 68% 40% 23% -4 +2 0.98 23% 1.3 .29 23% .50 78% .39 0.90 50% 11% 30% -10 0 0.82 24% 1.3 .32 23% .43 89% .38
Nov
9		 UC Davis F D- F C F+ 38% 19% 43% D+ F+ C+ D- D+ F A C A- A- A+ F A+ A+ 25% 16% 59% C A+ F C+ F+ A B+ C B
0.96 50% 22% 35% -5 0 0.91 32% 0.8 .27 24% .42 73% .30 0.91 38% 50% 23% -12 0 0.76 38% 1.0 .38 23% .30 75% .22
Nov
15		 Wyoming F D+ F F F 56% 23% 21% C F D D- D D+ A+ F B+ F F A+ C+ C 40% 12% 47% C C F F F D B+ F+ B-
0.80 54% 30% 11% -11 +1 0.81 21% 0.8 .16 18% .58 55% .31 1.32 70% 14% 33% +1 +1 1.07 44% 1.2 .51 14% .28 82% .23
Nov
21		 Cal St. Fullerton A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 46% 18% 36% C+ A+ D- A+ A+ B D C- D D+ D C- F F 38% 14% 48% D F C- A+ B+ C+ B+ A+ A+
1.32 69% 50% 50% +16 +1 1.36 24% 2.5 .60 17% .26 71% .18 1.09 64% 38% 43% +9 +1 1.21 26% 0.6 .16 17% .28 50% .14
Nov
22		 Northern Colorado F+ C B- F F 48% 12% 40% B+ D- B- A+ A+ F F C- F C C+ F A B+ 43% 15% 43% D B A+ F D+ D- D+ F F+
0.99 59% 43% 17% -9 +2 0.87 30% 1.6 .48 17% .24 75% .18 1.07 58% 56% 27% -2 +1 1.00 17% 2.0 .34 14% .26 89% .23
Nov
23		 St. Thomas F C- D+ C C- 47% 18% 35% C+ C B B+ B+ F F F F C+ C A+ B A 34% 4% 63% C- A- C- F F D C+ F+ C-
0.92 58% 33% 33% -1 +1 1.02 34% 1.3 .45 28% .14 57% .08 1.06 63% 0% 31% -2 +2 1.02 22% 1.4 .30 13% .29 78% .22
Nov
26		 Long Beach St. A A+ A+ A+ A+ 70% 11% 19% A+ A+ F A+ C F+ D+ A+ B- C C B- A A- 34% 17% 49% F B C D+ C- C+ F+ B D
1.30 76% 80% 44% +20 +4 1.49 18% 2.0 .35 21% .33 89% .30 1.02 61% 33% 27% -5 0 0.92 27% 1.1 .30 18% .34 70% .24
Dec
1		 Stanford C+ A C- A+ A 38% 33% 29% D A C A- B F A+ B A+ F C A+ F D 44% 4% 53% D D C+ F F F+ C B C+
1.04 69% 36% 42% +7 -2 1.12 27% 1.3 .35 26% .47 79% .37 1.35 58% 0% 41% +5 +3 1.16 34% 1.5 .51 12% .33 70% .23
Dec
14		 Kent St. C- A- A- C- B+ 47% 18% 35% B- B+ F+ A- D+ F+ C D- C- A- C- A+ A+ A 45% 18% 37% D+ A- D C D+ A+ F F F
1.08 68% 45% 33% +6 +1 1.15 23% 1.1 .26 20% .32 67% .21 0.96 59% 22% 22% -9 +1 0.86 39% 1.1 .42 29% .49 86% .42
Dec
17		 Oregon F+ B F F D- 40% 21% 40% B D D+ A C+ F D B D+ C- F A+ F F 34% 14% 52% C F A- D+ B B D+ F F+
0.88 61% 25% 26% -6 0 0.90 25% 1.1 .28 22% .23 79% .18 1.19 70% 25% 43% +10 +1 1.22 30% 1.2 .36 19% .36 83% .30
Dec
22		 UC Santa Barbara F+ C- D- F F 50% 19% 31% B F B- A+ A+ F F F F D F A+ F F 34% 11% 55% D F C- D- D B A+ A+ A+
0.96 58% 33% 13% -10 +1 0.83 31% 1.6 .50 22% .22 64% .14 1.24 81% 20% 46% +16 +1 1.36 33% 1.1 .37 20% .18 56% .10
Dec
28		 Washington St. F F F F F 36% 18% 45% B- F B- A+ A A+ A F C A- C+ A+ C- A+ 33% 18% 49% C+ A C+ A+ A+ C+ F A- F
0.91 45% 10% 16% -22 0 0.58 30% 1.4 .43 9% .38 58% .22 0.98 60% 13% 36% -2 0 0.98 28% 0.5 .15 19% .51 68% .34
Dec
30		 Santa Clara A- A+ A B+ A+ 43% 18% 39% C A+ A B- A C D- F F D- D F D- F 33% 24% 43% A- F+ F A+ B A- D- F F
1.19 86% 44% 37% +15 +1 1.33 40% 1.1 .44 21% .28 63% .18 1.29 67% 69% 39% +14 -1 1.28 46% 0.8 .36 20% .30 82% .24
Jan
2		 St. Mary's D D+ A F F+ 46% 25% 29% B- D- A- F C B- B- A+ A C- F A+ F F+ 31% 18% 51% B- D- A- C- B C- D- B+ D+
0.89 50% 46% 7% -13 0 0.75 33% 0.7 .23 14% .27 87% .24 1.22 71% 25% 43% +9 0 1.20 31% 1.1 .34 16% .39 76% .30
Jan
4		 San Francisco D+ A+ A+ F B 32% 21% 47% C- B- D- F F F A+ A- A+ B B+ A+ C A+ 33% 14% 53% C A F A+ C C- F A+ F
1.01 73% 60% 23% +2 -1 1.04 21% 0.7 .14 25% .38 79% .30 1.08 50% 0% 35% -7 0 0.88 50% 0.8 .38 15% .59 62% .36
Jan
8		 Pacific A- B F A+ A+ 20% 39% 41% F A- A+ A A+ F+ D+ A+ B- F+ B- A+ F C+ 45% 20% 35% D+ C+ F A- C- F F F F
1.23 64% 24% 55% +8 -4 1.11 37% 1.2 .46 19% .30 83% .25 1.21 52% 30% 44% +1 +1 1.06 45% 0.8 .37 14% .41 85% .35
Jan
10		 Oregon St. A- B F D C 40% 17% 43% C C B- A- A- A- A+ A+ A+ D- D+ D- C+ D+ 37% 24% 39% B- D+ B C+ B F+ F C+ F
1.24 63% 25% 30% -3 +1 0.98 35% 1.2 .42 11% .58 88% .51 1.15 59% 45% 33% +2 -1 1.04 22% 1.2 .26 14% .58 76% .44
Jan
14		 Pepperdine F B+ F F F 38% 9% 53% C+ F+ C+ F F+ C- F D- F C+ D A+ B C 36% 18% 45% D+ C C+ F F C+ F A+ C
0.93 67% 20% 21% -9 +1 0.87 34% 0.7 .24 18% .16 67% .11 0.99 63% 25% 30% -3 0 0.95 27% 1.4 .39 19% .37 60% .22
Jan
17		 Loyola Marymount C D- D+ A+ B 38% 30% 32% C- B- D C D+ D+ B+ C B+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 21% 31% 48% A A+ B F+ C B+ F+ F F
1.02 47% 33% 44% -1 -1 0.98 26% 1.0 .26 17% .35 75% .26 0.83 50% 13% 26% -15 -3 0.67 24% 1.2 .29 22% .33 78% .26
Jan
24		 St. Mary's B- C- F A- B- 43% 24% 33% C+ B- D+ A+ B+ B- A- A+ A+ C B C F C- 46% 17% 37% D C- B- A+ A+ B C F D+
1.06 52% 25% 38% -4 0 0.94 21% 1.4 .30 14% .30 88% .27 1.15 52% 38% 47% +5 +1 1.13 34% 0.7 .24 18% .34 89% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Pacific F F C+ F F 31% 13% 56% A- F D- F F F A+ D+ A+ C- D F+ A+ C+ 44% 25% 31% C+ C+ C- F F C- B- A- B
0.80 33% 40% 27% -13 0 0.77 19% 0.7 .13 22% .56 68% .38 1.16 62% 50% 27% +1 0 1.04 35% 1.5 .55 19% .25 69% .17
Jan
31		 Washington St. D+ F A+ F F+ 40% 26% 34% C- D- B+ A+ A+ B A+ F A- F F+ A+ F F 39% 13% 48% D F D+ F F F C F D
1.03 40% 62% 24% -6 -1 0.88 33% 1.5 .49 13% .48 57% .27 1.45 73% 14% 52% +16 +1 1.36 32% 1.5 .48 11% .30 84% .25
Feb
4		 Gonzaga A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 47% 21% 32% A A+ B+ B+ B+ D A- A+ A+ B+ A A- C+ A+ 32% 21% 47% C- A+ B C- B- D+ F C+ F
1.18 73% 60% 47% +18 +1 1.38 30% 1.0 .30 23% .35 80% .28 1.08 50% 33% 33% -4 -1 0.93 33% 1.2 .41 12% .40 69% .28
Feb
7		 Seattle F+ F F F F 50% 15% 35% B+ F B- A+ A+ B- F A F+ A- D- A+ A- A- 28% 16% 56% B A- F+ A C+ A+ C+ C+ C+
0.86 39% 29% 19% -19 +2 0.67 34% 1.4 .49 19% .20 80% .16 0.85 67% 14% 29% -5 0 0.91 31% 0.6 .19 24% .27 69% .19
Feb
11		 San Diego F A A F F 40% 18% 42% C F F A+ C- F D- A+ B+ C- A+ F+ F F 33% 22% 45% C+ F D- A+ A B A A+ A
0.91 72% 50% 11% -7 0 0.89 22% 1.6 .35 24% .29 100% .29 1.11 44% 45% 55% +11 -1 1.22 34% 0.5 .17 20% .16 63% .10



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.3 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 4.3 0.1 4.5 5th
6th 2.9 5.9 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 13.9 1.9 15.9 7th
8th 1.8 21.0 0.2 23.0 8th
9th 0.0 11.7 7.4 19.1 9th
10th 2.0 16.9 0.2 19.1 10th
11th 5.3 4.0 9.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 7.3 34.4 45.6 12.6 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10 12.6% 12.6
7-11 45.6% 45.6
6-12 34.4% 34.4
5-13 7.3% 7.3
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.8%