Gonzaga
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +18.9 13
Expected Predictive Rating +22.3 7
Pace 74.1 51
Improvement -7.6 362

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- 20 B+ A B+ C- D+
Defense A- 13 A- A A- B- A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 142 A- 68% 14 +5.0 29
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 49 B+ 44% 38 +4.6 18
Three Pointers 32% 338 B 37% 58 -3.0 287
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 292 A +7.3 12
1st FG Attempt B+ 1.15 30
Second Chance B+ 36.8% 31 A- 1.20 23 A 0.44 17
Turnovers B+ 13.9% 31
Freethrows C- 0.29 225 D+ 70% 258 C- 0.21 233
Total Offense A- +9.6 20

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 353 B 52% 52 +7.0 13
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 21 B 34% 46 -1.7 313
Three Pointers 43% 123 B+ 30% 38 +1.7 110
Shot Selection/Accuracy A -0.8 292 A- +7.3 12
1st FG Attempt 0.88 15 A- +6.9 15
Second Chance A 23.1% 8 A- 0.86 16 A 0.20 5
Turnovers A- 20.9% 19
Freethrows C+ 0.29 123 B+ 69% 35 B- 0.20 85
Total Defense A- +9.3 13

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.2 18 18.3 323
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 27 0.13 50
Improvement -3.7 #337 -3.9 #343

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 2% 2% 0%
Top 2 Seed 9% 14% 2%
Top 4 Seed 61% 73% 41%
Top 6 Seed 96% 99% 92%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 4.2 3.8 4.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 76% 96% 41%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round91% 94% 88%
Sweet Sixteen52% 56% 45%
Elite Eight22% 24% 18%
Final Four10% 11% 8%
Championship Game4% 4% 3%
National Champion1% 2% 1%

Next Game: Santa Clara (Away) - 63.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 22 - 2
Quad 1b4 - 06 - 2
Quad 25 - 012 - 2
Quad 310 - 122 - 3
Quad 48 - 030 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 308 Texas Southern W 98 - 43 99% +20  85% 1 - 0 A+ +43 A +14 B- A+ D A+ +28 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 54 Oklahoma W 83 - 68 86% +13  89% 2 - 0 A +22 B- +4 B- C+ A+ A+ +18 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 61 Creighton W 90 - 63 89% +11  88% 3 - 0 A+ +33 A +12 A+ D+ A A+ +20 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 68 @Arizona St. W 77 - 65 77% +7  72% 4 - 0 A+ +23 B +6 C B- C+ A+ +17 A A- C-
 Mon, Nov 17 287 Southern Utah W 122 - 50 99% +34  99% 5 - 0 A+ +62 A+ +25 A+ A+ B+ A+ +26 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 17 Alabama W 95 - 85 53% +1  52% 6 - 0 A+ +28 A+ +16 B+ A+ C A +11 C+ A+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 104 Maryland W 100 - 61 91% +19  99% 7 - 0 A+ +43 A+ +26 A+ A+ C A+ +17 A+ B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 1 Michigan L 61 - 101 25% -25  0% 7 - 1 D- -14 F+ -9 D+ C- A C -0 F A+ B
 Fri, Dec 5 24 Kentucky W 94 - 59 61% +21  100% 8 - 1 A+ +51 A+ +25 A+ A A A+ +26 A+ A- B-
 Sun, Dec 7 343 North Florida W 109 - 58 100% +26  97% 9 - 1 A+ +36 A- +10 A- A+ F+ A+ +21 A+ A A
 Sat, Dec 13 35 UCLA W 82 - 72 67% +2  66% 10 - 1 A+ +24 A+ +18 A+ F+ A+ B+ +7 C- A+ B-
 Wed, Dec 17 191 Campbell W 98 - 70 98% +14  96% 11 - 1 A+ +23 C+ +3 A- B- C- A+ +15 B+ A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 80 Oregon W 91 - 82 87% +4  70% 12 - 1 A- +16 A+ +22 A- B A+ D -6 C D- C-
 Sun, Dec 28 294 @Pepperdine W 96 - 56 98% +22  99% 13 - 1 1 - 0 A+ +35 A+ +19 A B- A- A+ +16 A+ C- C+
 Tue, Dec 30 215 @San Diego W 99 - 93 95% +10  94% 14 - 1 2 - 0 B- +6 A- +11 B+ A+ C+ D -6 F B F+
 Fri, Jan 2 134 Seattle W 80 - 72 OT 96% -6  17% 15 - 1 3 - 0 B- +7 B- +4 C+ B- A B- +2 B+ C- C+
 Sun, Jan 4 150 Loyola Marymount W 82 - 47 97% +15  70% 16 - 1 4 - 0 A+ +32 B+ +9 A B+ A A+ +24 A+ A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 8 44 Santa Clara W 89 - 77 82% +6  83% 17 - 1 5 - 0 A +21 A +12 A+ A+ B+ A- +8 A B A
 Thu, Jan 15 125 @Washington St. W 86 - 65 90% +10  80% 18 - 1 6 - 0 A+ +26 A +14 B- A+ B+ A+ +13 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 134 @Seattle W 71 - 50 90% +8  87% 19 - 1 7 - 0 A+ +26 B- +5 B- A+ D+ A+ +21 A+ C+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 294 Pepperdine W 84 - 60 99% +15  95% 20 - 1 8 - 0 B+ +13 B +6 F+ A+ A+ B+ +8 A- B- B+
 Sat, Jan 24 118 San Francisco W 68 - 66 95% +8  98% 21 - 1 9 - 0 C+ +2 D- -7 D- C+ B+ A- +8 C A A+
 Sat, Jan 31 40 St. Mary's W 73 - 65 80% +3  75% 22 - 1 10 - 0 A +18 B +6 B- A+ C+ A +13 A+ A+ C
 Wed, Feb 4 209 @Portland L 80 - 87 95% -6  1% 22 - 2 10 - 1 D+ -7 C+ +2 D+ B A D- -8 F B B+
 Sat, Feb 7 152 @Oregon St. W 81 - 61 92% +5  80% 23 - 2 11 - 1 A+ +23 A+ +28 A A+ A+ C+ +1 D+ C D+
 Tue, Feb 10 125 Washington St. W 83 - 53 96% +21  98% 24 - 2 12 - 1 A+ +29 B- +4 A- C+ D A+ +25 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 44 @Santa Clara W 83 - 79 63%
 Wed, Feb 18 118 @San Francisco W 83 - 70 89%
 Sat, Feb 21 115 Pacific W 83 - 64 96%
 Wed, Feb 25 209 Portland W 89 - 64 99%
 Sat, Feb 28 40 @St. Mary's W 75 - 72 60%
Totals 28 - 3 16 - 2 +19 F +10 B+ A D+ A- +9 B D+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- A- B+ B A 40% 28% 32% D+ B+ B+ A- A B+ C- D+ C- A- B B B+ A- 29% 28% 43% A A- A A- A A- C+ B+ B-
1.22 68% 44% 37% +7 -1 1.15 37% 1.2 .44 14% .29 70% .21 0.95 52% 34% 30% -5 -2 0.88 23% 0.9 .20 21% .29 69% .20
Nov
3		 Texas Southern A B A+ D- B- 52% 13% 36% B B- A+ B- A+ D D+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 34% 36% A A+ B- A B+ A+ C A+ B
1.35 66% 57% 30% +4 +2 1.14 56% 1.2 .68 18% .35 81% .29 0.59 40% 12% 17% -24 -2 0.50 24% 0.8 .20 23% .31 59% .18
Nov
8		 Oklahoma B- B- A+ D- B- 48% 20% 33% A- B- B+ D- C+ A+ F F F A+ C D A+ A 24% 26% 50% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C F D-
1.12 59% 50% 30% +1 +1 1.05 37% 0.9 .33 9% .16 45% .07 0.92 58% 46% 24% -5 -2 0.88 22% 1.0 .22 22% .31 89% .28
Nov
11		 Creighton A A+ A+ C A+ 28% 33% 39% D- A+ B- F D+ A C- F D A+ F B+ A- A 13% 33% 53% A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ F A+ F
1.23 82% 60% 33% +14 -2 1.25 31% 0.8 .26 11% .20 54% .11 0.86 83% 33% 29% -2 -3 0.91 23% 0.3 .08 25% .56 65% .36
Nov
14		 Arizona St. B C+ C+ D- C- 42% 11% 47% A- C B- B- B- C+ A+ B- A+ A+ B+ A+ B- A+ 36% 11% 53% D A A+ D A- C- C- A+ A-
1.10 58% 40% 29% -4 +1 0.98 34% 1.1 .38 20% .63 77% .48 0.93 53% 0% 32% -8 +1 0.89 23% 1.3 .30 14% .38 57% .22
Nov
17		 Southern Utah A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 42% 22% F A+ B- A+ A+ B+ B- A+ B+ A+ C+ A A+ A+ 29% 29% 43% A A+ A A+ A+ A+ C- B C
1.49 74% 63% 57% +24 -3 1.44 35% 1.6 .54 11% .27 80% .22 0.61 56% 25% 17% -15 -2 0.68 20% 0.6 .11 28% .26 67% .17
Nov
24		 Alabama A+ B- A+ F B+ 35% 31% 35% C- B+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ A- A+ A F+ B C+ C+ 36% 17% 47% B+ C+ B- A+ A+ A D+ A+ B
1.24 58% 53% 26% +1 -2 1.00 47% 1.3 .58 14% .40 73% .29 1.11 71% 40% 33% +5 0 1.12 32% 0.8 .24 17% .36 61% .22
Nov
25		 Maryland A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 36% 9% 55% B A+ A+ C A+ C D+ A+ C+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 39% 26% 35% B A+ C A- B+ A+ F+ B- D-
1.43 79% 60% 45% +19 +1 1.42 46% 1.0 .46 17% .26 80% .21 0.87 33% 42% 25% -13 -1 0.74 35% 0.9 .33 26% .44 70% .31
Nov
26		 Michigan F+ F A F D 34% 37% 29% C- D+ C- C- C- A C F D- C F A+ F F 46% 7% 47% C F A+ C- A+ B C A+ B
0.76 32% 46% 16% -14 -2 0.69 24% 0.9 .22 14% .22 53% .12 1.25 77% 25% 48% +18 +2 1.42 16% 1.4 .23 17% .38 64% .24
Dec
5		 Kentucky A+ A+ B A+ A+ 41% 30% 29% C A+ A- A A A D+ A C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 25% 18% 57% B A+ A+ D+ A- B- F D F
1.33 70% 41% 56% +15 -1 1.30 34% 1.0 .34 13% .26 81% .21 0.84 38% 0% 21% -23 -1 0.55 27% 1.3 .33 16% .44 77% .34
Dec
7		 North Florida A- A+ F A+ A 40% 31% 29% F A- B A+ A+ F+ C B- C A+ A+ D A+ A 9% 29% 62% A+ A+ A B+ A A C+ A+ B+
1.41 78% 28% 53% +13 -1 1.26 42% 1.8 .74 16% .28 72% .20 0.75 40% 44% 26% -7 -3 0.82 17% 1.0 .17 23% .22 62% .13
Dec
13		 UCLA A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 28% 41% 30% F A+ B F F+ A+ A+ F A+ B+ D+ C F D+ 30% 38% 32% A C- A+ A- A+ B- C D+ C-
1.25 85% 42% 43% +13 -3 1.22 34% 0.5 .17 12% .56 63% .35 1.10 64% 39% 47% +8 -3 1.13 20% 1.0 .20 15% .34 79% .27
Dec
17		 Campbell C+ B B A+ A- 59% 24% 17% B- A- B- C B- C- B D+ B- A+ C+ D+ A+ B+ 42% 19% 40% B B+ A A+ A+ A+ C A B
1.19 68% 43% 50% +11 +1 1.26 34% 1.2 .41 18% .36 71% .25 0.85 55% 40% 24% -7 0 0.89 25% 0.7 .18 24% .38 63% .24
Dec
21		 Oregon A+ C- D A+ A 29% 33% 37% D A- B+ C+ B A+ A+ A A+ D C- F C+ D+ 22% 20% 57% A C A F D- C- A+ F C+
1.34 53% 35% 53% +8 -2 1.14 35% 0.9 .32 7% .45 82% .37 1.21 58% 55% 32% +2 -1 1.04 29% 1.7 .48 16% .23 100% .23
Dec
28		 Pepperdine A+ A+ F A+ A+ 42% 25% 33% D- A B+ D+ B- A- B C+ B A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 34% 32% 34% A- A+ B F C- C+ F+ A+ C-
1.36 79% 29% 42% +11 0 1.23 38% 1.0 .38 13% .31 74% .23 0.79 41% 31% 24% -13 -2 0.72 24% 1.1 .27 20% .35 65% .23
Dec
30		 San Diego A- A- F A+ B+ 49% 22% 29% C B+ B+ A+ A+ C+ B- F D- D F F D- F 29% 17% 53% C- F A+ F B F+ F A D-
1.24 70% 25% 44% +8 +1 1.18 42% 1.5 .61 19% .37 54% .20 1.17 71% 50% 39% +10 0 1.21 17% 1.3 .23 14% .33 65% .22
Jan
2		 Seattle B- C+ A+ F B+ 30% 46% 24% F C+ F+ A+ B- A A C A B- D- A+ C B- 21% 29% 50% A+ B+ F B C- C+ A B A
1.06 56% 52% 23% +2 -4 0.98 24% 1.4 .32 16% .39 72% .28 0.95 67% 24% 34% -2 -2 0.93 32% 0.7 .23 18% .19 67% .13
Jan
4		 Loyola Marymount B+ A+ A- F+ A+ 31% 38% 31% F A C+ A+ B+ A F F F A+ C+ A+ B+ A+ 13% 52% 36% A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+
1.19 83% 45% 28% +8 -3 1.12 32% 1.3 .41 12% .16 40% .07 0.68 57% 21% 30% -11 -6 0.68 22% 0.6 .13 19% .12 43% .05
Jan
8		 Santa Clara A A+ B- A A+ 44% 26% 30% D+ A+ B A+ A+ B+ C+ C- C+ A- D F+ A+ B+ 22% 35% 44% A+ A B B B A D+ F F
1.21 77% 38% 40% +11 0 1.24 36% 1.4 .50 18% .35 71% .25 1.05 67% 53% 25% +1 -3 0.98 34% 1.0 .34 20% .27 88% .24
Jan
15		 Washington St. A B D- C C+ 50% 22% 28% B B- A+ C A+ B+ C- D+ D+ A+ A+ B+ F C- 32% 14% 55% C C- B- A+ A+ A+ F A+ B-
1.27 63% 33% 33% +1 +1 1.06 47% 1.1 .53 12% .28 71% .20 0.96 43% 33% 50% +8 0 1.18 28% 0.4 .11 25% .39 50% .20
Jan
17		 Seattle B- A+ B- D- A- 27% 44% 29% F B- A A- A+ D+ D- D+ D- A+ B A A+ A+ 31% 25% 44% A A+ A+ F C+ A+ A- A- A-
1.03 69% 43% 29% +3 -4 1.00 42% 1.1 .45 22% .24 69% .17 0.72 53% 25% 24% -11 -1 0.77 16% 1.2 .19 26% .21 64% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
21		 Pepperdine B B- F F F+ 46% 20% 34% C- F+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C- A B+ B F A+ B+ 31% 33% 37% A A- C+ B B- B+ B- F D+
1.21 62% 27% 21% -7 +1 0.89 38% 1.5 .56 10% .38 71% .27 0.86 50% 53% 16% -8 -2 0.83 27% 0.8 .22 22% .26 93% .24
Jan
24		 San Francisco D- F+ A+ F D- 43% 26% 30% C- D- D+ A C+ B+ A F D+ A- A+ A F C- 23% 23% 53% A C A B A A+ A A+ A
1.00 48% 64% 13% -7 0 0.87 24% 1.3 .31 10% .36 50% .18 0.97 18% 27% 52% +3 -1 1.04 25% 1.0 .25 22% .25 62% .15
Jan
31		 St. Mary's B A+ F B B+ 29% 42% 29% F B- B A+ A+ C+ A+ F A- A D- A+ A A+ 26% 38% 36% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C F F F
1.07 71% 25% 36% -1 -3 0.94 29% 1.5 .45 15% .36 62% .22 0.96 67% 22% 29% -6 -3 0.83 20% 0.7 .14 16% .44 92% .40
Feb
4		 Portland C+ D- C C D+ 32% 21% 47% D+ D+ C+ A- B A A+ D A- D- F F F F 47% 21% 32% C F C A- B B+ D- F+ F
1.08 50% 33% 33% -4 -1 0.93 33% 1.2 .41 12% .40 69% .28 1.18 73% 60% 47% +18 +1 1.38 30% 1.0 .30 23% .35 80% .28
Feb
7		 Oregon St. A+ B+ A+ D A 52% 28% 20% D+ A B+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ B- C+ A+ C- F F+ 28% 31% 41% A+ D+ A- F C D+ C- B+ C+
1.46 65% 50% 30% +6 0 1.14 38% 1.8 .69 4% .30 88% .26 1.10 36% 42% 50% +5 -2 1.08 20% 1.6 .32 16% .39 72% .28
Feb
10		 Washington St. B- A- A+ F A 45% 36% 19% D A- A F C+ D D- A+ C- A+ F+ C+ A+ A+ 30% 17% 52% B- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C F+ D+
1.17 67% 63% 20% +9 -1 1.17 36% 0.9 .32 17% .24 86% .20 0.75 71% 38% 21% -6 0 0.89 10% 0.7 .07 30% .30 80% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 3.8 38.6 33.6 76.0 1st
2nd 0.9 13.2 5.0 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 2.9 5.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 2.8 19.8 43.6 33.6 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 33.6    33.6
16-2 88.5% 38.6    16.6 22.0
15-3 19.0% 3.8    0.2 1.5 2.1
14-4 0.4% 0.0    0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 76.0% 76.0 50.4 23.5 2.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 33.6% 100.0% 73.0% 27.0% 3.2 1.5 6.4 12.9 9.8 2.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-2 43.6% 100.0% 62.7% 37.3% 4.4 0.1 1.1 7.2 16.3 13.4 4.8 0.7 0.1 100.0%
15-3 19.8% 99.8% 51.2% 48.5% 5.1 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.3 7.1 5.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
14-4 2.8% 99.1% 46.3% 52.8% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.3%
13-5 0.2% 96.7% 33.3% 63.3% 6.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 63.4% 36.6% 4.2 0.1 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 24.5% 100.0% 3.0 5.8 24.2 41.7 24.8 3.4 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.6% 100.0% 3.8 0.9 5.5 29.7 41.2 19.3 3.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5% 100.0% 4.0 1.0 3.7 26.1 39.8 24.4 4.7 0.3