Gonzaga
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+21.6#4
Expected Predictive Rating+25.5#4
Pace74.3#70
Improvement+1.3#89

Offense
Total Offense+11.2#8
First Shot+8.7#14
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#50
Layup/Dunks+9.7#2
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#123
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#242
Freethrows-0.1#188
Improvement+2.5#15

Defense
Total Defense+10.4#5
First Shot+9.9#8
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#147
Layups/Dunks+11.2#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#251
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#179
Freethrows-0.7#232
Improvement-1.2#292
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.5% 3.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 22.6% 22.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 45.9% 45.9% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 79.4% 79.4% 10.0%
Top 6 Seed 93.8% 93.8% 70.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.8% 99.8% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.0% 99.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 3.1 3.1 6.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 91.8% 91.8% 50.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round99.8% 99.7% 100.0%
Second Round93.9% 93.9% 80.0%
Sweet Sixteen69.1% 69.1% 50.0%
Elite Eight42.8% 42.8% 30.0%
Final Four24.6% 24.7% 0.0%
Championship Game13.4% 13.4% 0.0%
National Champion7.2% 7.2% 0.0%

Next Game: North Florida (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b4 - 16 - 2
Quad 27 - 013 - 2
Quad 38 - 021 - 3
Quad 49 - 030 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 296 Texas Southern W 98-43 99%     1 - 0 +44.4 +17.0 +25.5
  Sat, Nov 8 41 Oklahoma W 83-68 88%     2 - 0 +23.8 +6.7 +16.3
  Tue, Nov 11 45 Creighton W 90-63 89%     3 - 0 +35.3 +16.4 +17.8
  Fri, Nov 14 82 @Arizona St. W 77-65 86%     4 - 0 +22.0 +7.5 +14.6
  Mon, Nov 17 320 Southern Utah W 122-50 99%     5 - 0 +59.8 +26.9 +22.6
  Mon, Nov 24 11 Alabama W 95-85 61%     6 - 0 +28.8 +19.5 +8.5
  Tue, Nov 25 86 Maryland W 100-61 92%     7 - 0 +45.1 +31.0 +14.0
  Wed, Nov 26 1 Michigan L 61-101 33%     7 - 1 -13.9 -5.4 -3.3
  Fri, Dec 5 23 Kentucky W 94-59 74%     8 - 1 +50.0 +27.8 +21.9
  Sun, Dec 7 343 North Florida W 102-66 99.9%   
  Sat, Dec 13 31 UCLA W 77-69 77%    
  Wed, Dec 17 224 Campbell W 93-65 99.6%   
  Sun, Dec 21 80 Oregon W 84-70 91%    
  Sun, Dec 28 298 @Pepperdine W 87-61 99%    
  Tue, Dec 30 262 @San Diego W 93-69 99%    
  Fri, Jan 2 114 Seattle W 84-63 97%    
  Sun, Jan 4 143 Loyola Marymount W 84-61 98%    
  Thu, Jan 8 55 Santa Clara W 86-71 91%    
  Thu, Jan 15 158 @Washington St. W 90-71 96%    
  Sat, Jan 17 114 @Seattle W 81-66 91%    
  Wed, Jan 21 298 Pepperdine W 90-58 99.8%   
  Sat, Jan 24 99 San Francisco W 86-66 96%    
  Sat, Jan 31 42 St. Mary's W 79-66 88%    
  Wed, Feb 4 270 @Portland W 90-65 99%    
  Sat, Feb 7 163 @Oregon St. W 82-63 96%    
  Tue, Feb 10 158 Washington St. W 93-68 99%    
  Sat, Feb 14 55 @Santa Clara W 83-74 79%    
  Wed, Feb 18 99 @San Francisco W 83-69 89%    
  Sat, Feb 21 139 Pacific W 86-63 98%    
  Wed, Feb 25 270 Portland W 93-62 99.8%   
  Sat, Feb 28 42 @St. Mary's W 76-69 72%    
Projected Record 29 - 2 17 - 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 4.7 17.1 34.7 34.5 91.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.2 2.0 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.7 7.9 19.1 34.7 34.5 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 34.5    34.5
17-1 100.0% 34.7    33.2 1.5
16-2 89.3% 17.1    13.1 3.9 0.1
15-3 59.1% 4.7    2.3 2.0 0.4 0.0
14-4 28.3% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 3.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 91.8% 91.8 83.4 7.7 0.6 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 34.5% 100.0% 84.2% 15.8% 1.7 16.9 12.2 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 34.7% 100.0% 78.1% 21.9% 2.8 5.4 10.0 9.8 7.0 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-2 19.1% 99.9% 70.1% 29.8% 4.3 0.2 1.1 3.7 6.1 4.5 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
15-3 7.9% 99.6% 64.8% 34.8% 5.8 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.8 2.1 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 98.8%
14-4 2.7% 97.6% 56.0% 41.6% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 94.5%
13-5 0.8% 93.0% 48.2% 44.7% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 86.4%
12-6 0.2% 88.9% 38.9% 50.0% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.8%
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.8% 76.7% 23.1% 3.1 22.6 23.3 17.9 15.6 8.8 5.6 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.2 99.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 22.2% 100.0% 1.5 57.6 34.8 6.7 0.7 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.6% 100.0% 2.0 34.9 36.0 20.6 7.5 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1% 100.0% 2.1 28.4 40.3 22.7 8.1 0.6