Texas Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.9 309
Expected Predictive Rating -12.1 341
Pace 72.2 85
Improvement +2.9 68

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #300 D+ D+ C- C- D+
Defense D+ #299 D+ D- C- D- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 168 55% 253 -0.9 216
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 68 38% 183 +2.3 67
Three Pointers 34% 314 31% 282 -4.8 326
1st FG Attempt 0.95 283 -3.4 281
Second Chance 26.7% 292 1.04 153 0.28 258
Turnovers 17.6% 223
Freethrows 0.30 202 71% 234 0.21 208
Total Offense -4.8 300

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 159 62% 292 -2.1 258
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 349 39% 226 +2.3 22
Three Pointers 47% 37 34% 211 -3.3 318
1st FG Attempt 1.08 284 -3.1 286
Second Chance 33.4% 298 1.16 329 0.39 333
Turnovers 15.8% 245
Freethrows 0.38 341 72% 146 0.27 335
Total Defense -4.1 299

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.8 284 +0.9 328
Shot Type Accuracy -2.6 271 +2.1 264
Possession Length 17.3 171 16.5 48
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 95 0.20 274
Improvement +0.9 #130 +2.0 #79

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 8% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1% 1% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 54% 72% 33%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four6% 8% 3%
First Round3% 4% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Grambling St. (Home) - 54.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 20 - 7
Quad 410 - 1110 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 13 @Gonzaga L 43 - 98 1% -20  12% 0 - 1 F -33 F -23 F C D D- -8 C F A-
 Thu, Nov 6 31 @Texas A&M L 70 - 104 2% -12  19% 0 - 2 F+ -16 D -5 B B- F D- -8 D D F
 Wed, Nov 12 194 Samford L 90 - 93 OT 36% +1  47% 0 - 3 D -8 C +1 A- F A F+ -9 C F C-
 Sat, Nov 15 234 @Texas St. L 67 - 77 23% -12  0% 0 - 4 D -11 D- -8 D+ D F C- -3 D F A
 Thu, Nov 20 14 @Vanderbilt L 74 - 109 1% -24  2% 0 - 5 D- -13 C+ +3 A+ F C+ F -14 D- F C-
 Sat, Dec 6 121 Sam Houston St. L 70 - 82 21% -6  27% 0 - 6 D- -12 F -14 F C- D+ B- +3 A C+ C
 Sun, Dec 14 71 @Minnesota L 53 - 89 4% -20  1% 0 - 7 F -25 F -17 F+ F+ F D- -9 F C+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 27 @North Carolina St. L 72 - 108 1% -24  0% 0 - 8 F -18 C+ +3 F+ A B+ F -20 F+ F D
 Mon, Dec 22 260 Abilene Christian L 68 - 75 49% +2  65% 0 - 9 F+ -16 F+ -9 D+ D B- D -7 D D- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 264 @Southern L 73 - 84 28% -8  2% 0 - 10 0 - 1 D- -14 F -11 F D+ D- C -1 F C+ D+
 Mon, Jan 5 285 @Grambling St. L 67 - 84 32% -9  7% 0 - 11 0 - 2 F -21 D- -6 F A+ F+ F -15 F F F+
 Sat, Jan 10 313 Arkansas Pine Bluff L 66 - 74 62% -8  10% 0 - 12 0 - 3 F -20 F -15 F F C- D+ -5 F B F+
 Mon, Jan 12 365 Mississippi Valley W 84 - 51 94% +18  98% 1 - 12 1 - 3 B- +6 C -0 B C- F B+ +7 A F B+
 Sat, Jan 17 351 @Alcorn St. W 72 - 71 55% +1  54% 2 - 12 2 - 3 D -9 D+ -3 F+ D- A- D -6 C+ D+ D
 Mon, Jan 19 343 @Jackson St. L 89 - 94 51% -5  1% 2 - 13 2 - 4 D- -14 B- +5 B- D C F -19 F C F
 Sat, Jan 24 305 Alabama A&M W 89 - 74 60% -1  46% 3 - 13 3 - 4 C+ +4 A +12 A- C A+ D- -8 F C C+
 Tue, Jan 27 316 Alabama St. W 96 - 64 64% +16  99% 4 - 13 4 - 4 A +19 A +12 A+ C- B+ B+ +6 A+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 31 336 @Prairie View L 78 - 85 48% -2  30% 4 - 14 4 - 5 F+ -15 D -5 D- A B- F+ -9 D+ D F
 Sat, Feb 7 328 @Florida A&M W 62 - 57 45% +4  78% 5 - 14 5 - 5 C- -3 F+ -9 C- F F B+ +7 B- A B+
 Mon, Feb 9 227 @Bethune-Cookman L 69 - 79 OT 21% +2  55% 5 - 15 5 - 6 D -11 F+ -9 F D C+ C -1 A- F C
 Sat, Feb 14 285 Grambling St. W 71 - 70 55%
 Mon, Feb 16 264 Southern L 77 - 78 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 313 @Arkansas Pine Bluff L 78 - 81 39%
 Sat, Feb 21 365 @Mississippi Valley W 79 - 67 87%
 Thu, Feb 26 351 Alcorn St. W 80 - 73 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 343 Jackson St. W 82 - 76 72%
 Thu, Mar 5 336 Prairie View W 84 - 79 70%
Totals 9 - 18 9 - 8 -9 D -5 D+ D+ C- D+ -4 D+ D- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D+ C D+ D+ 39% 27% 34% D+ D+ D+ C D+ C- C C- C- D+ D+ C- C- D+ 39% 14% 47% D D+ D+ D- D- C- F+ C D-
1.02 55% 38% 31% -3 -1 0.95 27% 1.0 .28 18% .30 71% .21 1.14 62% 39% 34% +2 +1 1.08 33% 1.2 .39 16% .38 72% .22
Nov
3		 Gonzaga F F F F F 30% 34% 36% D+ F C+ C- C D C+ F C- D- C- F B+ B 52% 13% 36% F C F C F A- D- F F
0.59 40% 12% 17% -24 -2 0.50 24% 0.8 .20 23% .31 59% .18 1.35 66% 57% 30% +4 +2 1.14 56% 1.2 .68 18% .35 81% .29
Nov
6		 Texas A&M D B- A+ B- A- 35% 33% 33% D- B C+ B B- F A+ F A D- F F+ D D- 39% 7% 54% C D A+ F D F F A- F
0.91 60% 50% 36% +5 -2 1.09 30% 1.0 .30 30% .46 60% .28 1.35 73% 50% 39% +10 +2 1.26 23% 1.7 .39 10% .53 70% .38
Nov
12		 Samford C C+ F+ A+ A 39% 36% 25% D+ A- F D F A C F D+ F+ A F C+ C+ 37% 8% 55% F C B F F C- F C- F
1.16 58% 32% 67% +10 -2 1.18 16% 1.0 .16 8% .29 67% .20 1.20 47% 75% 32% -2 +2 1.00 20% 2.0 .40 13% .65 68% .44
Nov
15		 Texas St. D- C- A F D+ 47% 29% 24% D- D+ C F D F A+ F A+ C- D C+ C+ D 43% 22% 35% D- D C F F A F C+ F
0.94 57% 46% 27% 0 0 1.00 29% 0.7 .21 23% .53 62% .33 1.08 63% 38% 31% 0 0 1.03 32% 1.9 .60 24% .59 75% .44
Nov
20		 Vanderbilt C+ A B+ A+ A+ 20% 50% 30% F A+ D F F C+ A+ F A- F F F C D- 35% 10% 55% D D- F C+ F C- C C+ C
0.99 67% 43% 50% +12 -5 1.15 21% 0.3 .06 19% .48 66% .31 1.46 77% 67% 35% +11 +1 1.26 49% 1.2 .57 12% .34 77% .26
Dec
6		 Sam Houston St. F F+ F F F 41% 19% 41% C+ F C- C- C- D+ A+ B+ A+ B- C+ A+ A+ A+ 55% 11% 34% F A C B- C+ C F C- F
0.88 50% 18% 21% -15 0 0.73 29% 1.0 .29 19% .44 75% .33 1.03 55% 17% 22% -10 +2 0.87 35% 0.9 .33 18% .49 72% .35
Dec
14		 Minnesota F C B- F F+ 33% 31% 37% D+ F+ F+ F F+ F C- A+ B+ D- F A+ F F 29% 8% 63% C F C+ C+ C+ C F+ D+ F+
0.76 56% 40% 17% -9 -2 0.80 20% 0.6 .11 24% .25 92% .23 1.28 79% 25% 43% +14 +1 1.31 29% 1.0 .29 16% .43 72% .31
Dec
17		 North Carolina St. C+ C- C F F 43% 15% 43% B- F+ A A- A B+ B A B+ F B F F F+ 30% 11% 58% C+ F+ F C F D F F F
1.01 52% 38% 22% -10 +1 0.83 35% 1.1 .40 18% .34 75% .26 1.52 56% 67% 45% +13 +1 1.28 49% 1.2 .60 10% .42 85% .36
Dec
22		 Abilene Christian F+ A F F D 57% 20% 24% C+ D+ F A+ D B- F D- F D F A+ A D+ 41% 20% 39% D D B F D- C+ F F F
0.98 73% 11% 27% +1 +1 1.07 15% 1.8 .26 20% .34 68% .23 1.08 74% 22% 28% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.3 .36 22% .50 81% .40
Jan
3		 Southern F A F+ F F 30% 34% 36% F F F A+ D+ D- A+ B- A+ C F F D+ F 37% 29% 33% C F A+ F C+ D+ F A- F
0.93 71% 31% 24% -4 -2 0.89 18% 1.8 .32 22% .52 78% .41 1.07 68% 47% 35% +7 -1 1.14 16% 1.8 .29 15% .51 62% .31
Jan
5		 Grambling St. D- F D+ F F 34% 30% 36% F F D A+ A+ F+ F A+ D F F A F F 25% 18% 57% B F F D- F F+ F A- F+
0.96 41% 33% 28% -10 -2 0.78 30% 2.1 .63 23% .22 92% .20 1.20 73% 25% 44% +10 -1 1.20 43% 1.1 .46 17% .47 67% .31
Jan
10		 Arkansas Pine Bluff F D- C F F 52% 21% 27% C+ F F+ D- F C- C+ D C D+ F A+ D F 44% 18% 38% F+ F B- B+ B F+ B A- B+
0.95 52% 36% 14% -11 +1 0.81 27% 1.0 .27 16% .39 70% .27 1.07 73% 22% 37% +5 +1 1.14 23% 0.9 .19 14% .27 69% .19
Jan
12		 Mississippi Valley C D F A+ B 31% 10% 60% C+ B D- B+ C- F F C F B+ A A+ B- A+ 47% 31% 22% F A F+ F F B+ D A+ A
1.23 56% 0% 52% +12 +1 1.27 31% 1.3 .41 22% .23 75% .17 0.75 43% 14% 30% -16 -1 0.69 31% 1.3 .38 25% .31 38% .12
Jan
17		 Alcorn St. D+ F+ A F+ F+ 62% 22% 16% C F+ F+ C D- A- A+ F A+ D D A A+ B+ 46% 9% 46% F C+ D+ D+ D+ D F F F
1.11 54% 50% 29% -1 +2 1.02 30% 1.2 .36 14% .59 64% .38 1.10 62% 25% 24% -6 +2 0.93 28% 0.9 .25 17% .43 91% .39
Jan
19		 Jackson St. B- A+ B- F B- 41% 9% 50% B B- C+ F D C B+ C- B F F F D- F 38% 24% 38% D- F C- C C F F F F
1.22 83% 40% 29% +6 +2 1.18 38% 0.8 .31 15% .39 71% .27 1.29 74% 58% 37% +13 0 1.26 27% 1.0 .27 14% .45 86% .38
Jan
24		 Alabama A&M A B+ F A+ A 37% 24% 39% D A- D B+ C A+ B+ B A- D- C+ F F F 42% 24% 33% D+ F B- D- C C+ D+ A C+
1.32 68% 17% 55% +11 0 1.24 27% 1.1 .30 10% .40 75% .30 1.10 53% 55% 47% +8 0 1.18 22% 1.1 .25 18% .36 65% .23
Jan
27		 Alabama St. A C- A+ A+ A+ 37% 16% 47% C- A+ B+ F C- B+ A- A A+ B+ A- F A+ A+ 43% 4% 53% F A+ D+ F+ D- F F A+ F
1.31 58% 75% 46% +14 +1 1.31 41% 0.9 .37 15% .42 85% .35 0.88 45% 50% 19% -17 +2 0.73 33% 1.0 .33 14% .46 59% .27
Jan
31		 Prairie View D F B- B+ D 42% 28% 30% D- D- C A+ A B- B+ F C F+ F+ B+ B C- 35% 23% 42% F+ D+ C- F D F D+ D- D
1.05 48% 43% 40% 0 -1 1.00 37% 1.5 .53 17% .44 63% .28 1.14 65% 31% 29% -2 -1 0.96 24% 1.2 .29 9% .37 80% .30
Feb
7		 Florida A&M F+ F A+ A+ C 46% 26% 28% D+ C- C- F F F F B- F B+ A C C+ B- 30% 26% 44% B- B- F A+ A B+ F C F
0.97 38% 67% 46% +4 0 1.09 30% 0.6 .17 23% .20 80% .16 0.89 46% 36% 32% -6 -1 0.88 41% 0.3 .12 25% .44 67% .29
Feb
9		 Bethune-Cookman F+ F B F F 31% 27% 42% F F D C- D C+ A+ B A+ C B+ A+ F B+ 31% 35% 33% A+ A- F F F C F B- F
0.93 44% 43% 18% -13 -1 0.73 27% 1.1 .29 15% .46 76% .35 1.06 50% 17% 41% -6 -2 0.84 40% 1.2 .47 18% .57 66% .38



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.4 2.4 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 4.4 2.4 6.9 3rd
4th 2.1 8.5 0.5 11.1 4th
5th 0.2 9.4 4.6 0.0 14.3 5th
6th 2.8 12.7 0.6 16.0 6th
7th 0.2 10.2 5.6 0.0 16.0 7th
8th 0.0 2.7 10.6 0.6 14.0 8th
9th 0.3 6.0 2.9 9.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 4.5 0.2 6.2 10th
11th 0.6 2.1 0.8 0.0 3.5 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.6 3.8 14.3 27.0 30.5 18.5 5.4 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 5.4% 15.7% 15.7% 16.0 0.0 0.8 4.6
10-8 18.5% 11.1% 11.1% 16.0 2.1 16.4
9-9 30.5% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 2.4 28.1
8-10 27.0% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.7 26.3
7-11 14.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.2
6-12 3.8% 3.8
5-13 0.6% 0.6
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 16.0 94.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 16.0 2.6 97.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3%