Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.6#11
Expected Predictive Rating+21.7#10
Pace73.1#93
Improvement+0.4#161

Offense
Total Offense+12.2#3
First Shot+10.4#7
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#76
Layup/Dunks+6.7#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#192
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#48
Freethrows-0.9#233
Improvement-1.2#282

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#32
First Shot+3.4#71
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#24
Layups/Dunks+5.1#37
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#270
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#115
Freethrows-2.4#316
Improvement+1.7#60
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.4% 2.4% 0.8%
#1 Seed 14.1% 14.2% 4.9%
Top 2 Seed 36.4% 36.4% 13.8%
Top 4 Seed 74.2% 74.3% 52.0%
Top 6 Seed 90.7% 90.8% 80.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.0% 99.0% 96.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.8% 98.8% 96.2%
Average Seed 3.5 3.5 4.6
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 91.5% 91.5% 83.7%
Conference Champion 27.0% 27.1% 15.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.8%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 1.6%
First Round98.7% 98.7% 95.1%
Second Round88.4% 88.4% 80.5%
Sweet Sixteen57.1% 57.1% 48.8%
Elite Eight29.3% 29.3% 14.6%
Final Four13.7% 13.7% 6.5%
Championship Game6.1% 6.1% 2.4%
National Champion2.6% 2.6% 0.8%

Next Game: Central Arkansas (Home) - 99.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 44 - 4
Quad 1b7 - 211 - 6
Quad 27 - 118 - 7
Quad 32 - 020 - 7
Quad 46 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 161 Lipscomb W 105-61 97%     1 - 0 +40.5 +25.2 +12.5
  Sat, Nov 8 62 @Central Florida W 105-93 74%     2 - 0 +23.8 +29.8 -6.7
  Wed, Nov 12 269 Eastern Kentucky W 92-62 99%     3 - 0 +21.4 +9.1 +11.1
  Sat, Nov 15 353 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 104-75 99.5%    4 - 0 +13.2 +18.8 -7.4
  Thu, Nov 20 305 Texas Southern W 109-74 99%     5 - 0 +23.9 +25.2 -3.5
  Wed, Nov 26 128 Western Kentucky W 83-78 93%     6 - 0 +7.1 +0.5 +6.0
  Thu, Nov 27 42 Virginia Commonwealth W 89-74 75%     7 - 0 +26.6 +17.5 +8.0
  Fri, Nov 28 41 St. Mary's W 96-71 74%     8 - 0 +36.9 +26.9 +9.2
  Wed, Dec 3 40 SMU W 88-69 82%     9 - 0 +28.0 +21.6 +7.0
  Sat, Dec 13 279 Central Arkansas W 91-63 99.6%   
  Wed, Dec 17 69 @Memphis W 83-76 76%    
  Sun, Dec 21 50 @Wake Forest W 84-79 68%    
  Mon, Dec 29 332 New Haven W 89-57 99.8%   
  Sat, Jan 3 87 @South Carolina W 81-71 82%    
  Tue, Jan 6 10 Alabama W 92-89 60%    
  Sat, Jan 10 31 LSU W 84-76 77%    
  Wed, Jan 14 46 @Texas W 83-78 66%    
  Sat, Jan 17 14 Florida W 83-79 62%    
  Tue, Jan 20 20 @Arkansas W 82-81 52%    
  Sat, Jan 24 78 @Mississippi St. W 84-76 77%    
  Tue, Jan 27 21 Kentucky W 84-78 72%    
  Sat, Jan 31 57 @Mississippi W 79-73 70%    
  Sat, Feb 7 53 Oklahoma W 87-76 85%    
  Tue, Feb 10 26 @Auburn W 82-81 55%    
  Sat, Feb 14 39 Texas A&M W 88-78 81%    
  Wed, Feb 18 37 @Missouri W 83-80 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 17 Tennessee W 79-74 68%    
  Wed, Feb 25 19 Georgia W 91-85 70%    
  Sat, Feb 28 21 @Kentucky W 82-81 52%    
  Wed, Mar 4 57 Mississippi W 82-70 85%    
  Sat, Mar 7 17 @Tennessee L 76-77 47%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.8 6.6 8.2 5.7 2.7 0.7 27.0 1st
2nd 0.3 2.8 6.7 5.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 17.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 5.7 4.3 1.0 0.1 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.2 4.4 1.0 0.1 10.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 4.4 1.3 0.1 8.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.5 1.9 0.1 0.0 6.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 2.7 0.4 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.3 0.8 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 1.3 0.1 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.1 2.4 4.2 6.5 9.8 12.7 14.7 14.9 13.3 10.2 6.0 2.7 0.7 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 99.6% 2.7    2.6 0.1
16-2 94.9% 5.7    4.9 0.7 0.0
15-3 79.9% 8.2    5.5 2.4 0.3 0.0
14-4 49.2% 6.6    2.8 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 18.8% 2.8    0.5 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.0% 27.0 17.0 7.2 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 100.0% 52.2% 47.8% 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.7% 100.0% 42.7% 57.3% 1.3 1.9 0.7 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.0% 100.0% 34.5% 65.5% 1.5 3.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-3 10.2% 100.0% 30.8% 69.2% 1.8 3.7 5.0 1.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 13.3% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 2.2 2.7 6.0 3.8 0.8 0.1 100.0%
13-5 14.9% 100.0% 21.5% 78.5% 2.7 1.3 5.0 6.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.7% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 3.3 0.4 2.4 6.0 4.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 12.7% 100.0% 10.7% 89.3% 4.0 0.1 0.7 3.6 4.5 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 9.8% 100.0% 6.3% 93.7% 4.8 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.6 3.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 6.5% 99.9% 4.2% 95.8% 5.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
8-10 4.2% 99.1% 2.5% 96.6% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.1%
7-11 2.4% 94.2% 1.5% 92.7% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 94.1%
6-12 1.1% 77.2% 0.3% 76.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 77.2%
5-13 0.6% 46.4% 46.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 46.4%
4-14 0.1% 9.1% 9.1% 11.0 0.0 0.1 9.1%
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.0% 18.1% 80.9% 3.5 14.1 22.2 22.5 15.4 10.4 6.2 3.4 2.2 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.0 98.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 88.0 12.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 86.2 13.8