Auburn
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.2#26
Expected Predictive Rating+17.7#18
Pace69.6#181
Improvement+1.4#86

Offense
Total Offense+9.9#14
First Shot+8.8#12
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#127
Layup/Dunks+1.4#133
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#128
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#111
Freethrows+4.3#13
Improvement+0.2#161

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#62
First Shot+4.0#61
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#164
Layups/Dunks+2.9#78
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#296
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#201
Freethrows+3.2#26
Improvement+1.2#90
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 4.0% 4.1% 1.1%
Top 4 Seed 21.5% 22.0% 10.4%
Top 6 Seed 45.3% 46.2% 26.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 77.6% 78.5% 58.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 76.4% 77.4% 57.0%
Average Seed 6.3 6.3 7.2
.500 or above 87.1% 88.1% 66.3%
.500 or above in Conference 62.9% 63.7% 47.5%
Conference Champion 5.1% 5.2% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 2.0% 4.8%
First Four7.6% 7.5% 9.6%
First Round74.1% 75.1% 53.8%
Second Round51.4% 52.3% 33.9%
Sweet Sixteen22.1% 22.6% 11.2%
Elite Eight8.0% 8.1% 4.3%
Final Four2.8% 2.8% 1.7%
Championship Game1.0% 1.0% 0.8%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Neutral) - 95.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 94 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 12
Quad 25 - 212 - 13
Quad 32 - 014 - 13
Quad 45 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 220 Bethune-Cookman W 95-90 OT 96%     1 - 0 -1.7 +7.1 -9.4
  Thu, Nov 6 283 Merrimack W 95-57 98%     2 - 0 +28.4 +22.0 +7.9
  Tue, Nov 11 247 Wofford W 93-62 97%     3 - 0 +23.3 +14.6 +8.1
  Sun, Nov 16 8 Houston L 72-73 30%     3 - 1 +18.7 +13.5 +5.1
  Wed, Nov 19 312 Jackson St. W 112-66 98%     4 - 1 +34.6 +27.8 +3.4
  Mon, Nov 24 81 Oregon W 84-73 76%     5 - 1 +18.0 +14.3 +3.8
  Tue, Nov 25 1 Michigan L 72-102 13%     5 - 2 -3.6 +12.6 -15.8
  Wed, Nov 26 16 St. John's W 85-74 38%     6 - 2 +28.3 +24.7 +4.2
  Wed, Dec 3 36 North Carolina St. W 83-73 67%     7 - 2 +19.8 +11.7 +8.1
  Sat, Dec 6 5 @Arizona L 68-97 18%     7 - 3 -5.0 +2.9 -6.3
  Sat, Dec 13 222 Chattanooga W 84-66 95%    
  Sat, Dec 20 7 Purdue L 73-79 28%    
  Mon, Dec 29 196 Queens W 91-71 97%    
  Sat, Jan 3 19 @Georgia L 84-88 35%    
  Tue, Jan 6 39 Texas A&M W 83-78 69%    
  Sat, Jan 10 20 Arkansas W 80-78 58%    
  Wed, Jan 14 37 @Missouri L 78-80 45%    
  Sat, Jan 17 87 South Carolina W 80-69 85%    
  Tue, Jan 20 57 @Mississippi W 75-74 55%    
  Sat, Jan 24 14 @Florida L 76-83 27%    
  Wed, Jan 28 46 Texas W 82-76 72%    
  Sat, Jan 31 17 @Tennessee L 72-77 33%    
  Sat, Feb 7 10 Alabama L 88-89 45%    
  Tue, Feb 10 11 Vanderbilt L 81-82 45%    
  Sat, Feb 14 20 @Arkansas L 77-81 37%    
  Wed, Feb 18 78 @Mississippi St. W 80-76 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 21 Kentucky W 80-78 57%    
  Tue, Feb 24 53 @Oklahoma W 80-79 54%    
  Sat, Feb 28 57 Mississippi W 78-71 74%    
  Tue, Mar 3 31 LSU W 80-76 63%    
  Sat, Mar 7 10 @Alabama L 85-92 25%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.7 1.6 0.4 0.1 6.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 3.7 2.0 0.3 0.0 7.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.8 3.0 0.5 0.0 7.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.9 4.3 0.9 0.1 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 5.1 2.1 0.1 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.8 4.1 0.4 0.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.7 5.1 1.4 0.1 8.3 8th
9th 0.6 4.0 3.0 0.2 7.8 9th
10th 0.1 2.2 4.4 0.7 0.0 7.5 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 3.5 2.0 0.1 6.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.8 0.4 5.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.3 0.7 0.0 4.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.8 0.1 3.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.1 4.2 6.7 10.0 12.8 14.3 14.4 12.1 9.7 6.3 3.6 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-2 90.2% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-3 79.2% 1.4    0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 48.2% 1.8    0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 15.9% 1.0    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.1% 5.1 2.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 1.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.6% 100.0% 31.4% 68.6% 2.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.8% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 2.4 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.6% 100.0% 18.3% 81.7% 3.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 6.3% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 3.6 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 9.7% 100.0% 9.9% 90.1% 4.3 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.5 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 12.1% 99.8% 5.8% 94.0% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 3.9 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 14.4% 99.4% 3.6% 95.8% 6.2 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.1 4.3 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.4%
9-9 14.3% 96.4% 1.9% 94.5% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.9 2.8 2.5 1.5 0.6 0.0 0.5 96.4%
8-10 12.8% 81.1% 1.3% 79.7% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.7 3.0 0.2 2.4 80.8%
7-11 10.0% 42.1% 0.8% 41.4% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 5.8 41.7%
6-12 6.7% 9.1% 0.2% 8.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.1 8.9%
5-13 4.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.6%
4-14 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 2.1 0.2%
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 77.6% 4.9% 72.7% 6.3 0.9 3.0 7.0 10.5 12.1 11.7 8.5 6.0 5.4 5.4 6.4 0.6 0.0 22.4 76.4%