LSU
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.6#31
Expected Predictive Rating+13.1#44
Pace71.9#121
Improvement-2.6#329

Offense
Total Offense+7.1#44
First Shot+7.4#22
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#196
Layup/Dunks+9.3#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#245
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#290
Freethrows+2.9#44
Improvement-2.2#338

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#31
First Shot+4.2#55
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#63
Layups/Dunks+4.3#47
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#332
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#225
Freethrows+3.7#17
Improvement-0.4#224
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.8% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 1.8% 2.8% 0.9%
Top 4 Seed 10.9% 15.5% 6.4%
Top 6 Seed 28.4% 37.2% 19.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69.8% 79.0% 60.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 68.5% 78.0% 59.4%
Average Seed 7.1 6.7 7.5
.500 or above 97.4% 99.2% 95.7%
.500 or above in Conference 61.7% 67.6% 55.8%
Conference Champion 5.0% 6.3% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 2.0% 3.7%
First Four6.0% 5.5% 6.5%
First Round66.9% 76.3% 57.6%
Second Round42.2% 50.4% 34.2%
Sweet Sixteen15.9% 19.9% 12.0%
Elite Eight5.9% 7.4% 4.4%
Final Four2.1% 2.7% 1.6%
Championship Game0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
National Champion0.2% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Neutral) - 49.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 25 - 210 - 10
Quad 35 - 015 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 201 Tarleton St. W 96-60 95%     1 - 0 +30.5 +23.3 +8.1
  Mon, Nov 10 244 New Orleans W 93-58 96%     2 - 0 +27.4 +12.1 +14.0
  Thu, Nov 13 189 Florida International W 98-81 95%     3 - 0 +12.1 +13.1 -2.8
  Tue, Nov 18 334 Alcorn St. W 107-81 99%     4 - 0 +12.6 +24.1 -12.5
  Fri, Nov 21 233 Nebraska Omaha W 99-73 96%     5 - 0 +18.8 +11.2 +5.0
  Fri, Nov 28 124 Drake W 71-62 85%     6 - 0 +11.4 +1.5 +10.2
  Sat, Nov 29 134 DePaul W 96-63 86%     7 - 0 +34.8 +26.1 +9.1
  Wed, Dec 3 145 @Boston College W 78-69 OT 82%     8 - 0 +13.0 +4.4 +7.9
  Sun, Dec 7 29 Texas Tech L 75-76 50%    
  Sat, Dec 13 40 SMU W 80-78 55%    
  Fri, Dec 19 246 SE Louisiana W 82-61 98%    
  Mon, Dec 22 322 Prairie View W 90-64 99%    
  Mon, Dec 29 224 Southern Miss W 87-67 97%    
  Sat, Jan 3 39 @Texas A&M L 79-80 45%    
  Tue, Jan 6 87 South Carolina W 78-68 83%    
  Sat, Jan 10 11 @Vanderbilt L 76-84 23%    
  Wed, Jan 14 21 Kentucky W 78-77 55%    
  Sat, Jan 17 37 Missouri W 80-76 63%    
  Tue, Jan 20 14 @Florida L 74-81 25%    
  Sat, Jan 24 20 @Arkansas L 76-81 34%    
  Wed, Jan 28 78 Mississippi St. W 81-72 80%    
  Sat, Jan 31 87 @South Carolina W 75-71 66%    
  Sat, Feb 7 19 Georgia W 85-84 54%    
  Tue, Feb 10 20 Arkansas W 79-78 55%    
  Sat, Feb 14 17 @Tennessee L 71-77 31%    
  Tue, Feb 17 46 @Texas L 77-78 49%    
  Sat, Feb 21 10 Alabama L 86-88 42%    
  Wed, Feb 25 57 @Mississippi W 74-73 52%    
  Sat, Feb 28 53 Oklahoma W 82-76 72%    
  Tue, Mar 3 26 @Auburn L 76-80 37%    
  Sat, Mar 7 39 Texas A&M W 82-77 66%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 5.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 6.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 3.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 7.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.0 3.1 0.4 0.0 8.1 4th
5th 0.2 2.8 4.3 1.0 0.1 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 4.8 2.0 0.1 8.2 6th
7th 0.3 3.8 4.0 0.4 0.0 8.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 5.0 1.4 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 4.0 3.0 0.2 7.7 9th
10th 0.1 2.3 4.5 0.7 0.0 7.7 10th
11th 0.0 1.0 3.8 1.8 0.1 6.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.6 0.3 5.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.5 0.8 0.0 4.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.0 0.1 3.7 14th
15th 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.3 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.3 4.6 7.1 10.3 12.6 14.1 13.8 12.1 9.4 6.3 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 96.4% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-3 77.3% 1.3    0.8 0.4 0.1
14-4 46.1% 1.6    0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 15.8% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 42.9% 57.1% 1.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.7% 100.0% 26.2% 73.8% 2.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.7% 100.0% 18.8% 81.2% 3.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.5% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 3.8 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 6.3% 99.9% 11.4% 88.5% 4.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 9.4% 99.5% 9.2% 90.3% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.6 2.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
11-7 12.1% 98.4% 4.6% 93.7% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 3.1 3.2 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.3%
10-8 13.8% 94.4% 3.1% 91.4% 7.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.2 3.5 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.8 94.3%
9-9 14.1% 84.4% 1.6% 82.8% 8.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.0 3.1 2.4 1.0 0.0 2.2 84.1%
8-10 12.6% 59.2% 0.9% 58.2% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.6 2.0 0.0 5.1 58.8%
7-11 10.3% 30.5% 0.4% 30.1% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.6 0.1 7.1 30.2%
6-12 7.1% 10.3% 0.3% 10.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 6.4 10.1%
5-13 4.6% 0.7% 0.7% 11.2 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.7%
4-14 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 10.0 0.0 2.3 0.1%
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 69.8% 4.1% 65.7% 7.1 0.5 1.3 3.5 5.6 8.0 9.4 10.3 10.0 8.1 7.5 5.4 0.2 30.2 68.5%