Tarleton St.
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#201
Expected Predictive Rating+4.1#115
Pace70.8#152
Improvement-0.1#197

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#214
First Shot-0.9#202
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#219
Layup/Dunks+0.4#162
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#53
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#335
Freethrows+2.1#71
Improvement-1.1#273

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#197
First Shot-0.7#196
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#205
Layups/Dunks+3.7#59
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#250
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#266
Freethrows-1.5#271
Improvement+1.0#102
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.8% 7.0% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.1 14.7
.500 or above 51.1% 52.8% 23.4%
.500 or above in Conference 51.7% 52.7% 36.0%
Conference Champion 5.4% 5.6% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 10.1% 9.6% 18.0%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round6.7% 6.9% 3.1%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Away) - 94.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 31 - 7
Quad 33 - 44 - 11
Quad 410 - 314 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 40 @SMU L 76-96 6%     0 - 1 -5.0 +6.8 -11.1
  Wed, Nov 5 31 @LSU L 60-96 5%     0 - 2 -19.4 -3.3 -17.1
  Sat, Nov 8 210 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 85-77 64%     1 - 2 +1.7 +13.1 -11.2
  Tue, Nov 11 283 Merrimack W 76-62 75%     2 - 2 +4.4 -4.3 +8.1
  Fri, Nov 14 34 @Baylor L 81-94 5%     2 - 3 +3.0 +9.5 -5.9
  Thu, Nov 20 213 @Rice W 90-74 41%     3 - 3 +15.7 +11.4 +3.3
  Mon, Dec 1 68 @Cincinnati L 58-76 10%     3 - 4 -6.7 -4.8 -1.7
  Tue, Dec 16 365 @Mississippi Valley W 81-64 94%    
  Fri, Dec 19 343 Florida A&M W 80-68 87%    
  Mon, Dec 29 191 @Texas Arlington L 70-74 37%    
  Thu, Jan 1 83 Utah Valley L 71-77 28%    
  Sat, Jan 3 131 California Baptist L 70-72 45%    
  Thu, Jan 8 215 Abilene Christian W 71-67 64%    
  Thu, Jan 15 320 @Southern Utah W 76-73 62%    
  Sat, Jan 17 257 @Utah Tech L 72-73 49%    
  Wed, Jan 21 191 @Texas Arlington L 70-74 37%    
  Sat, Jan 24 215 Abilene Christian W 71-67 64%    
  Thu, Jan 29 83 Utah Valley L 71-77 29%    
  Sat, Jan 31 257 Utah Tech W 75-69 70%    
  Thu, Feb 5 131 @California Baptist L 67-75 25%    
  Sat, Feb 7 320 @Southern Utah W 76-73 62%    
  Sat, Feb 14 215 @Abilene Christian L 68-70 43%    
  Thu, Feb 19 320 Southern Utah W 79-70 80%    
  Sat, Feb 21 257 Utah Tech W 75-69 69%    
  Thu, Feb 26 83 @Utah Valley L 68-80 14%    
  Sat, Feb 28 131 @California Baptist L 67-75 25%    
  Thu, Mar 5 191 Texas Arlington W 73-71 58%    
Projected Record 13 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.0 4.7 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 14.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.1 7.5 5.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 21.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.3 7.2 7.1 3.2 0.5 0.0 21.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 4.4 6.7 4.3 1.0 0.1 17.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 2.2 4.4 4.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 13.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.1 7th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.3 6.8 9.0 11.8 13.3 13.5 12.4 9.7 7.2 4.5 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 98.4% 0.4    0.4 0.0
15-3 85.6% 1.1    0.9 0.2 0.0
14-4 58.0% 1.4    0.9 0.5 0.0
13-5 31.8% 1.4    0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 10.0% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.4% 5.4 3.1 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 41.2% 41.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.4% 34.6% 34.6% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.3% 27.0% 27.0% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9
14-4 2.4% 25.5% 25.5% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.8
13-5 4.5% 22.4% 22.4% 13.6 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 3.5
12-6 7.2% 15.5% 15.5% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 6.1
11-7 9.7% 12.1% 12.1% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 8.6
10-8 12.4% 7.6% 7.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 11.5
9-9 13.5% 4.6% 4.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 12.9
8-10 13.3% 2.9% 2.9% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 12.9
7-11 11.8% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 11.6
6-12 9.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 8.9
5-13 6.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 6.7
4-14 4.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.2
3-15 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.4 1.8 0.7 93.2 0.0%