Utah Tech
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.7 203
Expected Predictive Rating -0.6 173
Pace 67.6 213
Improvement +3.6 49

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #195 C+ D C D- C+
Defense C- #225 C- C- C- C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 171 62% 84 +1.8 113
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 226 36% 234 -1.3 250
Three Pointers 43% 137 34% 153 +1.5 126
1st FG Attempt 1.06 112 +2.0 112
Second Chance 28.6% 234 0.88 340 0.25 310
Turnovers 16.7% 169
Freethrows 0.24 345 71% 225 0.17 347
Total Offense -1.1 195

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 54 63% 310 -5.2 336
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 308 37% 142 +1.8 47
Three Pointers 40% 206 30% 43 +2.7 72
1st FG Attempt 1.03 207 -0.7 205
Second Chance 32.1% 244 1.03 187 0.33 233
Turnovers 16.2% 224
Freethrows 0.30 177 73% 215 0.22 173
Total Defense -1.6 225

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.3 142 +0.9 325
Shot Type Accuracy +1.6 116 -0.2 175
Possession Length 17.7 221 17.4 213
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 228 0.18 221
Improvement +3.6 #34 +0.1 #186

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7% 10% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 42% 67% 32%
.500 or above in Conference 88% 98% 83%
Conference Champion 6% 16% 2%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 1%
First Round7% 9% 6%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 30.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 50 - 8
Quad 36 - 56 - 13
Quad 49 - 215 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 281 @South Dakota W 81 - 79 OT 55% +2  66% 1 - 0 C- -2 F+ -9 C- F D B+ +7 A C C-
 Fri, Nov 7 2 @Arizona L 67 - 93 1% -11  8% 1 - 1 C+ +2 B- +5 C+ B- C- C- -3 F A+ B-
 Sun, Nov 9 69 @Arizona St. L 66 - 81 10% -11  0% 1 - 2 C- -4 D- -6 C- C- D B- +2 B D+ F+
 Wed, Nov 12 323 Manhattan L 75 - 79 76% -3  12% 1 - 3 D- -14 C- -2 F+ C B+ F -12 F F B
 Fri, Nov 14 365 Mississippi Valley W 81 - 75 2OT 97% +3  69% 2 - 3 F -18 F+ -9 D F B- F+ -10 F A- F
 Sat, Nov 15 102 @Hawaii L 62 - 68 16% -6  0% 2 - 4 C+ +2 D- -6 C F D+ A- +8 B+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 142 Portland St. L 63 - 68 47% -1  41% 2 - 5 D+ -7 F -10 C+ F C+ B- +3 B+ B- A-
 Sat, Nov 29 293 UC Riverside W 77 - 69 78% +4  87% 3 - 5 C- -3 B- +5 B- C A D -7 D- D D+
 Wed, Dec 3 44 @Santa Clara L 80 - 90 6% -12  0% 3 - 6 B- +5 B- +4 A+ D F B- +2 C+ D+ B
 Sat, Dec 20 232 @Weber St. W 82 - 80 43% +1  59% 4 - 6 C +1 B+ +8 A F B+ D -7 F A+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 61 @Creighton L 69 - 92 10% -11  0% 4 - 7 D- -11 D -5 B C F D -6 F A+ C+
 Mon, Dec 29 284 Southern Utah W 80 - 66 76% +2  51% 5 - 7 1 - 0 C+ +4 C- -2 C+ C- D- B +5 B- C+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 260 @Abilene Christian W 79 - 64 50% +14  83% 6 - 7 2 - 0 B+ +12 B+ +9 A+ D- C- B +4 D- B+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 138 @California Baptist L 72 - 84 25% -7  5% 6 - 8 2 - 1 D+ -8 A- +10 A F+ C+ F -19 C F F
 Sat, Jan 10 91 @Utah Valley L 76 - 92 15% -7  9% 6 - 9 2 - 2 D+ -8 C- -1 C+ B- F D+ -5 C+ D D
 Thu, Jan 15 169 Texas Arlington L 52 - 56 54% -5  8% 6 - 10 2 - 3 D+ -8 F -21 F C- A A+ +13 A- A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 214 Tarleton St. W 75 - 71 63% +6  99% 7 - 10 3 - 3 C- -2 C- -0 B D- C C -2 B A F
 Wed, Jan 21 138 @California Baptist L 64 - 73 25% -5  8% 7 - 11 3 - 4 C- -5 C +2 D- A- A+ D- -8 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 284 Southern Utah W 102 - 91 76% +8  91% 8 - 11 4 - 4 C +1 A+ +19 B+ A A+ F -19 F D- F
 Thu, Jan 29 260 @Abilene Christian W 76 - 70 50% +7  99% 9 - 11 5 - 4 C+ +3 C- -2 C C+ F B +5 C+ F C
 Sat, Jan 31 214 @Tarleton St. W 65 - 59 40% +1  46% 10 - 11 6 - 4 B- +6 C- -1 A+ F C+ B+ +8 A+ F C+
 Thu, Feb 5 169 Texas Arlington W 87 - 84 2OT 54% +1  49% 11 - 11 7 - 4 C -1 B- +5 B B A D -6 B- F F
 Thu, Feb 12 91 Utah Valley L 72 - 77 31%
 Sat, Feb 14 138 California Baptist L 69 - 70 48%
 Thu, Feb 19 169 @Texas Arlington L 67 - 72 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 214 @Tarleton St. L 72 - 75 40%
 Thu, Feb 26 260 Abilene Christian W 74 - 68 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 284 @Southern Utah W 76 - 75 55%
 Sat, Mar 7 91 Utah Valley L 72 - 77 31%
Totals 14 - 15 10 - 8 -3 C- -1 C+ D C C- -2 C- C- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B- C- C+ C+ 39% 18% 43% C+ C+ C- D- D C F+ C- D- C- D C+ B+ C 43% 16% 40% D C- C- C C- C- C C C
1.07 62% 36% 34% +2 0 1.06 29% 0.9 .25 17% .24 71% .17 1.11 63% 37% 30% 0 +1 1.03 32% 1.0 .33 16% .30 73% .17
Nov
3		 South Dakota F+ C+ A+ F C- 54% 8% 38% B C- D F F D F F F B+ B- C+ A+ A+ 49% 24% 27% C A D B+ C C- F C- F
0.98 61% 80% 26% 0 +3 1.08 28% 0.6 .16 18% .19 62% .12 0.96 52% 36% 13% -12 0 0.78 32% 0.9 .27 17% .51 77% .39
Nov
7		 Arizona B- B+ D+ F+ C+ 26% 26% 48% B- C+ B+ C- B- C- A+ B- A+ C- F B F F 47% 26% 26% C- F C A+ A+ B- B- B B
0.94 58% 33% 27% -6 -2 0.87 29% 0.8 .24 20% .47 70% .33 1.31 84% 36% 50% +18 0 1.38 41% 0.5 .22 17% .34 70% .24
Nov
9		 Arizona St. D- C+ C- D+ C- 24% 22% 53% D+ C- D- A- C- D A+ F C+ B- C- B B- B 36% 26% 38% B B B- F D+ F+ A+ C A+
0.93 58% 36% 31% -3 -1 0.94 25% 1.2 .30 23% .40 59% .24 1.14 62% 33% 32% -1 -1 0.98 30% 1.5 .43 11% .25 75% .19
Nov
12		 Manhattan C- F+ C- D+ F 38% 15% 46% C+ F+ B D C B+ B- F D+ F D+ C+ F F 52% 17% 30% F F F D+ F B F D- F
1.16 50% 38% 33% -4 +1 0.96 43% 1.0 .43 12% .26 60% .16 1.22 58% 38% 43% +4 +1 1.13 38% 1.1 .41 19% .38 85% .32
Nov
14		 Mississippi Valley F+ A+ B+ F D 32% 17% 51% C- D D+ F F B- B+ F C+ F+ F D+ A F 31% 29% 41% F F B- A+ A- F A F B+
1.09 82% 44% 26% +3 0 1.08 34% 0.6 .22 15% .44 68% .30 1.01 83% 41% 25% +3 -2 1.05 22% 0.5 .11 16% .18 82% .14
Nov
15		 Hawaii D- A- C- F C+ 35% 26% 39% D C F F F D+ D A- C- A- D- F A+ A- 50% 17% 33% C- B+ C- F F A+ F F F
0.88 63% 36% 24% -5 -1 0.91 14% 0.8 .11 18% .26 73% .19 0.96 67% 57% 7% -6 +1 0.93 32% 1.7 .54 27% .49 84% .41
Nov
25		 Portland St. F A- D+ F B- 43% 21% 36% C C+ F F F C+ F B+ F B- D+ A+ A B+ 43% 19% 38% C+ B+ F A+ B- A- F C- F
0.89 67% 33% 25% -2 0 0.98 10% 0.7 .06 18% .17 80% .14 0.96 60% 22% 28% -6 0 0.91 41% 0.6 .26 24% .44 71% .31
Nov
29		 UC Riverside B- C- A+ C+ B 49% 22% 29% C B- F A+ C A C- A+ B D F F A- F+ 39% 22% 39% C+ D- C- D- D D+ D+ B- C-
1.22 58% 64% 36% +7 +1 1.16 22% 1.4 .30 11% .32 83% .27 1.09 72% 50% 28% +5 0 1.11 29% 1.0 .29 17% .32 71% .23
Dec
3		 Santa Clara B- A+ C- B A+ 45% 11% 45% B A+ A+ F D F F A+ F B- F C+ B+ B- 38% 12% 50% D+ C+ F B D+ B B- A+ A-
1.05 72% 33% 36% +7 +2 1.20 44% 0.6 .25 29% .15 100% .15 1.18 74% 43% 30% +4 +1 1.12 45% 1.0 .45 18% .21 54% .11
Dec
20		 Weber St. B+ A+ A+ B A+ 28% 28% 44% F A C- F F B+ A- F B- D D- A+ F F 51% 5% 44% F F A A+ A+ C F D+ F
1.23 86% 57% 36% +15 -2 1.28 29% 0.4 .13 14% .40 65% .26 1.20 64% 0% 53% +14 +3 1.35 23% 0.3 .08 17% .54 73% .40
Dec
22		 Creighton D B D+ C B- 49% 17% 34% A B F A+ C F F+ F+ F+ D F B+ F F 43% 5% 52% F F C+ A+ A+ C+ C+ C+ C+
0.96 62% 33% 33% +1 +1 1.06 17% 1.8 .30 21% .14 63% .09 1.28 75% 33% 45% +16 +2 1.38 28% 0.4 .13 15% .25 73% .18
Dec
29		 Southern Utah C- C- F A+ C 53% 11% 36% A C+ B F C- D- D F D- B A- F+ B B+ 51% 14% 35% F B- C B C+ B- F A+ F+
1.11 55% 17% 45% +2 +2 1.11 38% 0.7 .28 17% .22 62% .13 0.92 48% 43% 29% -7 +2 0.92 28% 0.9 .26 21% .37 62% .23
Jan
1		 Abilene Christian B+ A A+ A+ A+ 37% 11% 52% C A+ D+ F D- C- F A+ F B F A+ A+ D- 46% 22% 33% D D- C+ A B+ A+ F+ C+ D-
1.19 71% 60% 46% +16 +1 1.37 26% 0.8 .22 23% .23 92% .21 0.96 86% 20% 20% +2 0 1.07 31% 0.7 .21 27% .39 68% .27
Jan
8		 California Baptist A- A- D A A 49% 19% 32% B A B- F F+ C+ C+ B B- F B D C C 46% 15% 39% D+ C F F F F F D- F
1.15 65% 33% 40% +6 +1 1.15 29% 0.4 .13 14% .34 78% .26 1.35 48% 43% 33% -4 +1 0.96 52% 1.4 .73 11% .47 77% .36
Jan
10		 Utah Valley C- D+ C+ B- C 49% 21% 30% B- C+ C- A- B- F C+ A+ A D+ C F A C+ 54% 13% 33% C- C+ B+ F D D F F F
0.99 52% 40% 36% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.2 .35 25% .35 90% .31 1.20 59% 57% 28% 0 +2 1.06 31% 1.5 .47 18% .43 89% .38
Jan
15		 Texas Arlington F F F F F 51% 23% 26% B+ F B- F C- A F+ F F A+ A B A+ A+ 62% 13% 26% F A- B- A+ A+ B+ D- F F
0.77 44% 17% 7% -22 +1 0.58 32% 0.9 .28 12% .30 50% .15 0.83 41% 33% 25% -14 +3 0.79 33% 0.5 .15 24% .41 81% .33
Jan
17		 Tarleton St. C- A+ F C B- 38% 11% 51% B- B F B- D- C B+ C+ B+ C C+ F A+ A- 57% 17% 26% F B F A+ A F D+ A+ B
1.08 88% 0% 35% +8 +1 1.20 23% 1.2 .27 23% .43 74% .32 1.02 55% 50% 13% -8 +2 0.90 39% 0.6 .22 11% .36 59% .21
Jan
21		 California Baptist C F F A+ D- 36% 28% 36% D D- B A A- A+ F A+ F+ D- B- B B- C+ 49% 18% 33% C- C+ B- F F F F+ A+ C+
1.03 37% 20% 42% -8 -1 0.83 31% 1.2 .36 10% .18 100% .18 1.18 50% 33% 31% -6 +1 0.92 35% 1.4 .49 11% .38 57% .22
Jan
24		 Southern Utah A+ B B+ A B 52% 18% 31% B+ B+ C+ A+ A A+ B B+ B F F A B- F 50% 24% 26% D+ F C- F D- F F F F
1.41 63% 45% 42% +7 +1 1.19 34% 1.3 .46 4% .29 75% .22 1.26 76% 25% 31% +5 0 1.12 30% 1.2 .37 12% .47 80% .38
Jan
29		 Abilene Christian C- B- F A+ C 45% 17% 38% C C C+ C+ C+ F A+ F+ A- B C+ A+ B- B 48% 14% 38% F C+ B- F F C A- A+ A+
1.03 63% 14% 44% +4 +1 1.12 31% 1.1 .34 28% .57 67% .38 0.95 54% 14% 32% -6 +2 0.92 30% 1.5 .43 20% .26 53% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Tarleton St. C- A D+ A+ A+ 30% 17% 52% D+ A+ F F F C+ F F F B+ A- C- A+ A+ 46% 10% 44% F A+ F C+ F C+ C- F+ D+
1.02 71% 38% 50% +17 0 1.35 21% 0.0 .00 22% .16 38% .06 0.93 45% 40% 14% -18 +2 0.69 44% 1.0 .44 20% .34 82% .28
Feb
5		 Texas Arlington B- D B A B 48% 21% 31% B+ B B B- B A F+ C- F+ D C D+ A+ B 46% 18% 36% C- B- B F F F A+ A+ A+
1.14 54% 42% 39% +1 +1 1.05 33% 1.2 .39 12% .30 70% .21 1.10 55% 42% 21% -8 +1 0.88 33% 1.4 .47 10% .16 64% .10



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.3 2.9 0.5 6.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 6.2 6.6 0.9 14.9 2nd
3rd 1.0 8.0 19.1 13.8 2.1 43.9 3rd
4th 0.9 8.2 14.6 8.0 1.2 32.8 4th
5th 0.8 1.2 0.1 2.2 5th
6th 0.2 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 7th
Total 1.9 10.4 22.7 28.3 21.5 10.9 3.8 0.5 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
13-5 77.5% 2.9    1.3 1.4 0.3
12-6 20.7% 2.3    0.3 1.0 1.0 0.1
11-7 1.5% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.0% 6.0 2.0 2.5 1.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.5% 12.5% 12.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 3.8% 21.0% 21.0% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 3.0
12-6 10.9% 14.4% 14.4% 14.4 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.0 9.4
11-7 21.5% 9.0% 9.0% 14.7 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.1 19.6
10-8 28.3% 5.2% 5.2% 15.1 0.1 1.2 0.2 26.9
9-9 22.7% 3.7% 3.7% 15.7 0.3 0.6 21.9
8-10 10.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 10.2
7-11 1.9% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 1.8
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 14.8 93.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 1.0%