Utah Tech
Western Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#257
Expected Predictive Rating-6.3#269
Pace67.8#229
Improvement+1.9#57

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#269
First Shot-0.7#197
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#337
Layup/Dunks+0.9#146
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#164
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#162
Freethrows-2.5#319
Improvement+1.7#56

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#218
First Shot-0.3#178
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#281
Layups/Dunks-6.1#349
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#147
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#63
Freethrows+1.7#86
Improvement+0.3#167
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.6% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 7.4% 14.2% 4.7%
.500 or above in Conference 25.4% 31.5% 22.9%
Conference Champion 1.3% 2.0% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 23.5% 18.6% 25.4%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
First Round2.0% 3.1% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Away) - 28.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 33 - 73 - 15
Quad 48 - 511 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 270 @South Dakota W 81-79 OT 40%     1 - 0 -0.7 -6.7 +5.8
  Fri, Nov 7 5 @Arizona L 67-93 1%     1 - 1 -2.0 +4.8 -6.3
  Sun, Nov 9 66 @Arizona St. L 66-81 7%     1 - 2 -3.5 -3.6 +0.4
  Wed, Nov 12 308 Manhattan L 75-79 61%     1 - 3 -12.2 +0.7 -13.2
  Fri, Nov 14 365 Mississippi Valley W 81-75 2OT 93%     2 - 3 -16.1 -5.2 -11.2
  Sat, Nov 15 104 @Hawaii L 62-68 12%     2 - 4 +1.4 -4.3 +5.7
  Tue, Nov 25 171 Portland St. L 63-68 45%     2 - 5 -9.1 -9.9 +0.9
  Sat, Nov 29 258 UC Riverside W 77-69 62%     3 - 5 -0.3 +7.2 -6.6
  Wed, Dec 3 75 @Santa Clara L 80-90 8%     3 - 6 +0.6 +4.3 -2.8
  Sat, Dec 20 195 @Weber St. L 71-77 28%    
  Mon, Dec 22 43 @Creighton L 62-82 4%    
  Mon, Dec 29 320 Southern Utah W 76-69 73%    
  Thu, Jan 1 215 @Abilene Christian L 65-70 33%    
  Thu, Jan 8 131 @California Baptist L 64-74 17%    
  Sat, Jan 10 83 @Utah Valley L 64-79 9%    
  Thu, Jan 15 191 Texas Arlington L 69-70 49%    
  Sat, Jan 17 201 Tarleton St. W 73-72 51%    
  Wed, Jan 21 131 @California Baptist L 64-74 17%    
  Sat, Jan 24 320 Southern Utah W 76-69 73%    
  Thu, Jan 29 215 @Abilene Christian L 65-70 33%    
  Sat, Jan 31 201 @Tarleton St. L 69-75 30%    
  Thu, Feb 5 191 Texas Arlington L 69-70 49%    
  Thu, Feb 12 83 Utah Valley L 67-76 22%    
  Sat, Feb 14 131 California Baptist L 67-71 35%    
  Thu, Feb 19 191 @Texas Arlington L 67-73 28%    
  Sat, Feb 21 201 @Tarleton St. L 69-75 31%    
  Thu, Feb 26 215 Abilene Christian W 68-67 54%    
  Sat, Feb 28 320 @Southern Utah W 73-72 52%    
  Sat, Mar 7 83 Utah Valley L 67-76 22%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.7 4.3 2.1 0.6 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.3 6.4 5.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 16.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.2 6.5 8.4 4.4 0.9 0.1 22.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 5.1 8.7 7.2 2.6 0.4 0.0 26.0 6th
7th 0.2 1.0 2.7 4.3 4.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 15.6 7th
Total 0.2 1.0 3.0 6.1 9.8 13.0 14.7 14.4 12.4 9.8 7.0 4.3 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 90.3% 0.2    0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 75.2% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 29.5% 0.3    0.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 11.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 27.4% 27.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.5% 21.5% 21.5% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.2% 17.5% 17.5% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
12-6 2.4% 13.5% 13.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.1
11-7 4.3% 8.3% 8.3% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.9
10-8 7.0% 5.9% 5.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.5
9-9 9.8% 3.2% 3.2% 15.9 0.0 0.3 9.5
8-10 12.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 12.2
7-11 14.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 14.2
6-12 14.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 14.6
5-13 13.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.0
4-14 9.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.8
3-15 6.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.1
2-16 3.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.0
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%