Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
97 Utah Valley 53.7%   13   19 - 7 12 - 4 +5.6      +1.3 133 +4.2 66 71.3 104 +5.0 101 +3.6 1
134 California Baptist 27.0%   21 - 8 11 - 5 +1.8      -1.9 221 +3.7 78 65.0 272 +5.2 98 +3.3 2
179 Texas Arlington 7.5%   13 - 13 7 - 9 -1.2      -4.7 298 +3.5 82 64.7 281 -0.5 163 -3.2 4
195 Utah Tech 7.5%   15 - 13 11 - 6 -2.1      +0.2 158 -2.3 247 66.4 240 +0.5 149 +2.2 3
220 Tarleton St. 1.7%   10 - 16 5 - 12 -3.6      -4.2 280 +0.6 149 72.4 77 -3.5 227 -6.1 7
236 Abilene Christian 1.3%   10 - 16 5 - 11 -4.1      -5.1 304 +1.0 142 67.6 203 -4.0 235 -6.1 6
261 Southern Utah 1.3%   7 - 19 6 - 10 -5.7      -2.7 245 -3.0 261 74.2 42 -5.9 254 -3.8 5


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Mar 5 220 Tarleton St. 68 179 Texas Arlington 67 53%   
Thu, Mar 5 236 Abilene Christian 62 134 California Baptist 71 80%   
Thu, Mar 5 261 Southern Utah 73 97 Utah Valley 82 78%   
Sat, Mar 7 236 Abilene Christian 66 179 Texas Arlington 65 50%   
Sat, Mar 7 195 Utah Tech 72 97 Utah Valley 77 67%   
Sat, Mar 7 134 California Baptist 75 261 Southern Utah 70 67%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
Utah Valley 1.0 96.2 3.8
California Baptist 1.7 28.3 69.5 2.2
Utah Tech 2.7 4.0 20.0 76.0
Texas Arlington 4.0 97.7 2.3
Southern Utah 4.9 16.9 77.6 5.5
Abilene Christian 5.8 5.4 30.8 43.4 20.5
Tarleton St. 6.1 24.6 45.0 30.5

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Utah Valley 13 - 5 20 - 8 7.8 39.3 52.9
California Baptist 12 - 6 22 - 9 7.0 39.6 53.4
Utah Tech 11 - 7 15 - 14 67.1 32.9
Texas Arlington 8 - 10 14 - 14 27.6 48.4 24.1
Southern Utah 7 - 11 8 - 20 52.3 39.7 8.0
Abilene Christian 6 - 12 11 - 17 40.2 48.8 11.0
Tarleton St. 6 - 12 11 - 16 47.4 52.6

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah Valley 96.2% 71.1 21.7 3.4
California Baptist 28.3% 3.8 21.1 3.4
Utah Tech 4.0% 0.6 3.4
Texas Arlington
Southern Utah
Abilene Christian
Tarleton St.


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah Valley 53.7% 53.7% 0.0% 13   1.0 29.7 21.0 2.1 0.0 46.3 0.0%
California Baptist 27.0% 27.0% 0.0% 0.0 5.5 16.5 4.9 0.1 73.0 0.0%
Texas Arlington 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.7 1.2 92.5 0.0%
Utah Tech 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.8 0.2 92.5 0.0%
Tarleton St. 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 1.7 98.3 0.0%
Abilene Christian 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 1.3 98.7 0.0%
Southern Utah 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 1.3 98.7 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.4% 1.0 1.6 98.4
2nd Round 7.4% 0.1 92.6 7.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.9% 0.0 99.1 1.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah Valley 53.7% 0.0% 53.7% 6.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 27.0% 0.0% 27.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 7.5% 0.4% 7.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 7.5% 0.0% 7.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 1.7% 1.5% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 1.3% 1.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 1.3% 1.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%