Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
85 Utah Valley 53.7%   13   7 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 7 14 - 4 +6.6      +1.5 127 +5.1 49 70.6 149 +7.3 85 0.0 1
134 California Baptist 19.3%   10 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 7 +1.7      +0.6 148 +1.1 132 65.1 297 +8.0 74 0.0 1
167 Texas Arlington 10.7%   6 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 12 10 - 8 -0.6      -3.5 266 +2.9 88 65.6 283 +3.0 129 0.0 1
180 Tarleton St. 8.4%   5 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 9 -1.5      -2.1 222 +0.6 145 74.0 62 +4.2 108 0.0 1
204 Abilene Christian 5.3%   5 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -2.8      -3.8 272 +0.9 135 66.3 267 +0.6 155 0.0 1
251 Utah Tech 2.3%   4 - 7 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -5.2      -2.7 240 -2.5 254 68.0 223 -4.1 232 0.0 1
319 Southern Utah 0.4%   1 - 9 0 - 0 5 - 23 4 - 14 -9.4      -6.2 333 -3.2 285 72.6 96 -13.2 341 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 20 251 Utah Tech 82 223 Weber St. 80   
Sat, Dec 20 134 California Baptist 74 276 Sacramento St. 67   
Mon, Dec 22 303 Oral Roberts 57 167 Texas Arlington 69   
Mon, Dec 22 204 Abilene Christian 75 327 Texas Southern 68   
Mon, Dec 22 36 Creighton 92 251 Utah Tech 69   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
Utah Valley 1.4 74.4 16.9 5.5 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
California Baptist 2.6 19.5 35.8 22.4 12.8 6.5 2.6 0.5
Texas Arlington 3.4 9.0 22.0 24.5 20.3 14.2 7.9 2.1
Tarleton St. 3.8 6.6 17.0 22.1 21.7 17.6 11.3 3.6
Abilene Christian 4.2 3.4 11.4 17.7 22.1 22.9 16.9 5.7
Utah Tech 5.1 1.1 4.7 9.5 15.3 23.5 30.8 15.2
Southern Utah 6.3 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.6 10.1 23.2 59.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Utah Valley 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.9 5.3 9.1 13.2 16.5 18.4 16.5 11.2 4.1
California Baptist 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.8 6.4 10.0 13.4 15.6 15.6 13.2 9.8 5.6 2.5 0.7 0.1
Texas Arlington 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.4 5.9 9.1 11.9 14.4 14.4 13.2 10.7 7.5 4.1 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0
Tarleton St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.8 5.1 8.3 10.9 13.0 13.9 13.8 11.3 8.6 5.5 3.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Abilene Christian 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.5 8.0 11.4 13.6 14.7 14.2 11.5 8.2 5.7 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Utah Tech 7 - 11 0.1 1.0 3.3 6.5 10.2 13.7 15.2 15.0 12.5 9.3 6.1 3.7 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Utah 4 - 14 3.5 9.4 14.7 18.3 17.0 13.9 9.7 6.4 3.7 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah Valley 74.4% 63.9 9.2 1.2 0.1 0.0
California Baptist 19.5% 12.4 6.0 1.0 0.1 0.0
Texas Arlington 9.0% 5.1 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
Tarleton St. 6.6% 3.7 2.3 0.6 0.0 0.0
Abilene Christian 3.4% 1.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Utah Tech 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Utah 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah Valley 53.7% 53.6% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 7.4 24.5 16.9 3.2 0.3 0.0 46.3 0.1%
California Baptist 19.3% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.3 9.1 4.5 0.9 0.1 80.7 0.0%
Texas Arlington 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 3.5 4.0 1.9 0.5 89.3 0.0%
Tarleton St. 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.9 1.8 0.5 91.6 0.0%
Abilene Christian 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 1.7 0.8 94.7 0.0%
Utah Tech 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 97.7 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah Valley 53.7% 0.0% 53.6% 9.4% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 19.3% 0.0% 19.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 10.7% 0.2% 10.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 8.4% 0.3% 8.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 5.3% 0.5% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 2.3% 0.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 99.1% 1.0 0.9 99.1 0.0
2nd Round 11.8% 0.1 88.2 11.8
Sweet Sixteen 2.2% 0.0 97.8 2.2
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0