Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.2 #107
Expected Predictive Rating +4.8 #96
Pace 72.3 #89
Improvement -3.7 #330

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #127 B A- F D+ A
Defense #100 B- C B+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 50% #3 1.25 #86 +9.0 #4
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #312 0.68 #295 -2.9 #317
Three Pointers 36% #288 1.03 #168 -2.4 #271
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #75 +3.7 #75
Freethrows 17.0 #224 67% #321 11.4 #267
Second Chance 35.3% #56 1.18 #41 0.42 #37
Turnovers 19.9% #346
Total Offense +1.5 #127

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #119 1.08 #83 +0.2 #169
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #128 0.80 #255 -0.9 #255
Three Pointers 37% #280 0.96 #105 +3.0 #71
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #114 +2.2 #113
Freethrows 18.0 #201 76% #337 13.7 #257
Second Chance 30.4% #170 1.07 #220 0.32 #201
Turnovers 19.2% #52
Total Defense +2.7 #100

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.3% #16 0.0% #165
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.7% #118 -4.4% #94
Possession Length 16.5 #100 17.0 #128
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #70 0.14 #84
Improvement -0.9 #229 -2.9 #327

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.2% 49.2% 40.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 12.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.8% 98.5%
Conference Champion 68.6% 81.3% 55.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round45.2% 49.2% 40.9%
Second Round4.4% 5.4% 3.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Away) - 51.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 310 - 411 - 7
Quad 411 - 221 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 66 @Boise St. L 77 - 101 25% -12  0 - 1 -13 +6 C+ A+ F -17 F F F
 Sat, Nov 15 143 @Fresno St. L 74 - 75 51% +4  0 - 2 +3 +5 A- B+ D- -2 F B A+
 Wed, Nov 19 123 UC Irvine W 79 - 72 68% +6  1 - 2 +6 +9 A+ A- B- -3 A D+ C-
 Tue, Nov 25 170 South Dakota St. W 75 - 52 69% +10  2 - 2 +22 +1 C A+ F +21 A+ A- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 249 Samford W 89 - 45 81% +23  3 - 2 +39 +7 A B+ F +30 A+ B+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 46 @San Diego St. L 66 - 77 18% -6  3 - 3 +3 +2 B+ B F +1 B+ D B
 Sat, Dec 6 129 @Bowling Green W 82 - 71 47% +10  4 - 3 +16 +10 A+ C+ F +6 A+ D- B+
 Wed, Dec 10 219 Idaho St. W 73 - 69 84% -1  5 - 3 -2 -4 C B- F +1 C+ A+ B
 Sat, Dec 13 144 UC Santa Barbara W 68 - 53 63% +12  6 - 3 +16 -6 F C- F +22 A+ C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 217 Weber St. W 90 - 74 84% +9  7 - 3 +10 +20 A+ A+ F -9 B+ F F
 Mon, Dec 29 142 California Baptist W 73 - 66 73% +0  8 - 3 1 - 0 +5 -0 A+ F A+ +5 F A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 1 189 @Tarleton St. W 91 - 85 62% +2  9 - 3 2 - 0 +7 +12 B C C- -5 B+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 258 @Abilene Christian L 68 - 85 73% -5  9 - 4 2 - 1 -19 -4 C B+ F -16 F B- F
 Thu, Jan 8 284 Southern Utah W 89 - 72 90% +10  10 - 4 3 - 1 +7 +10 A A F -3 D+ C- C
 Sat, Jan 10 233 Utah Tech W 92 - 76 85% +7  11 - 4 4 - 1 +9 +8 C+ A+ F -1 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 156 Texas Arlington W 86 - 74 75% +14  12 - 4 5 - 1 +9 +16 B+ A+ B- -7 B+ F B-
 Wed, Jan 21 284 @Southern Utah L 70 - 84 78% -4  12 - 5 5 - 2 -18 -4 F B- C -14 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 142 @California Baptist W 72 - 71 51%
 Thu, Jan 29 189 @Tarleton St. W 80 - 77 62%
 Thu, Feb 5 258 Abilene Christian W 78 - 66 88%
 Sat, Feb 7 156 Texas Arlington W 74 - 67 74%
 Thu, Feb 12 233 @Utah Tech W 77 - 72 69%
 Thu, Feb 19 142 California Baptist W 74 - 68 72%
 Sat, Feb 21 156 @Texas Arlington W 71 - 70 54%
 Thu, Feb 26 189 Tarleton St. W 83 - 74 80%
 Sat, Feb 28 258 Abilene Christian W 78 - 66 88%
 Thu, Mar 5 284 @Southern Utah W 80 - 72 77%
 Sat, Mar 7 233 @Utah Tech W 77 - 72 69%
Totals 20 - 8 13 - 5 +4 +2 B A- F +3 B- C B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 2.1 10.0 19.6 20.6 12.4 3.7 68.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 7.0 8.2 3.4 0.4 20.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.6 3.0 0.5 8.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 6.0 12.1 18.7 23.0 21.0 12.4 3.7 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 3.7    3.7
15-3 100.0% 12.4    12.3 0.1
14-4 98.3% 20.6    18.8 1.8
13-5 85.1% 19.6    13.7 5.6 0.3
12-6 53.6% 10.0    4.3 4.6 1.1 0.0
11-7 17.6% 2.1    0.3 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
10-8 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
9-9 0.2% 0.0    0.0
Total 68.6% 68.6 53.1 13.2 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 3.7% 61.4% 61.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.2 0.1 1.4
15-3 12.4% 57.6% 57.6% 12.3 0.4 4.6 2.1 0.1 5.3
14-4 21.0% 53.8% 53.8% 12.6 0.1 4.8 5.8 0.6 0.0 9.7
13-5 23.0% 46.4% 46.4% 12.8 0.0 3.0 6.3 1.4 0.0 12.3
12-6 18.7% 41.8% 41.8% 13.1 1.4 4.6 1.8 0.1 10.9
11-7 12.1% 33.2% 33.2% 13.3 0.4 2.2 1.3 0.1 8.1
10-8 6.0% 22.5% 22.5% 13.6 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 4.7
9-9 2.3% 21.1% 21.1% 13.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.8
8-10 0.7% 13.6% 13.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
7-11 0.2% 12.5% 12.5% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 45.2% 45.2% 0.0% 12.7 54.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 100.0% 11.6 0.2 0.2 42.3 53.7 3.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%