Samford
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#228
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#209
Pace68.7#210
Improvement+0.2#172

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#191
First Shot-2.1#231
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#114
Layup/Dunks-2.5#267
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#215
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#127
Freethrows-0.8#216
Improvement-1.4#293

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#272
First Shot-4.9#328
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#79
Layups/Dunks-2.1#253
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#328
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#223
Freethrows+0.9#131
Improvement+1.6#50
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.5% 7.7% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 44.5% 57.7% 33.5%
.500 or above in Conference 64.4% 69.5% 60.0%
Conference Champion 5.8% 7.2% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 1.3% 2.5%
First Four1.4% 1.1% 1.7%
First Round5.9% 7.3% 4.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cornell (Home) - 45.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 412 - 515 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 172 @Tulane L 72-85 28%     0 - 1 -11.1 +2.4 -14.5
  Fri, Nov 7 352 South Carolina St. W 82-72 86%     1 - 1 -5.6 +0.5 -6.4
  Wed, Nov 12 296 @Texas Southern W 93-90 OT 52%     2 - 1 -1.6 +9.5 -11.3
  Fri, Nov 14 22 @Arkansas L 75-79 3%     2 - 2 +14.0 +8.6 +5.6
  Sun, Nov 16 273 @Central Arkansas W 84-77 OT 47%     3 - 2 +3.9 +5.4 -2.0
  Wed, Nov 19 177 Florida Gulf Coast L 62-77 51%     3 - 3 -19.3 -13.9 -5.7
  Fri, Nov 21 116 @New Mexico St. L 72-81 17%     3 - 4 -2.7 +12.1 -15.9
  Tue, Nov 25 334 Georgia St. W 78-63 73%     4 - 4 +4.5 +2.5 +2.0
  Wed, Nov 26 90 Utah Valley L 45-89 18%     4 - 5 -38.3 -25.6 -10.6
  Fri, Dec 5 43 @Virginia Commonwealth L 57-83 5%     4 - 6 -11.4 -7.1 -4.3
  Sun, Dec 7 150 Cornell L 83-84 45%    
  Thu, Jan 1 337 @VMI W 77-73 65%    
  Sat, Jan 3 293 @UNC Greensboro W 74-73 51%    
  Wed, Jan 7 281 Western Carolina W 79-73 70%    
  Sat, Jan 10 209 @Chattanooga L 71-75 36%    
  Wed, Jan 14 153 Furman L 73-74 46%    
  Sat, Jan 17 115 East Tennessee St. L 72-76 34%    
  Wed, Jan 21 208 @Wofford L 74-78 36%    
  Sat, Jan 24 209 Chattanooga W 74-72 57%    
  Thu, Jan 29 153 @Furman L 70-77 26%    
  Sat, Jan 31 281 @Western Carolina L 75-76 48%    
  Thu, Feb 5 363 The Citadel W 80-66 89%    
  Sat, Feb 7 191 Mercer W 79-78 54%    
  Wed, Feb 11 208 Wofford W 77-75 57%    
  Sat, Feb 14 115 @East Tennessee St. L 69-79 17%    
  Thu, Feb 19 363 @The Citadel W 77-69 75%    
  Sat, Feb 21 191 @Mercer L 76-81 33%    
  Thu, Feb 26 337 VMI W 80-70 81%    
  Sat, Feb 28 293 UNC Greensboro W 77-71 72%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 3.3 3.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.8 5.3 4.8 1.4 0.2 13.6 3rd
4th 0.1 2.2 6.1 5.2 1.1 0.1 14.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.6 7.2 5.3 1.1 0.0 16.5 5th
6th 0.3 2.5 6.0 4.6 0.9 0.0 14.3 6th
7th 0.3 2.3 5.0 3.5 0.8 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.1 3.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.1 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.7 6.3 10.0 12.7 14.9 14.2 12.8 9.6 6.4 3.9 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 96.9% 0.6    0.5 0.1
15-3 82.8% 1.5    1.1 0.4 0.0
14-4 48.5% 1.9    0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-5 21.2% 1.4    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1
12-6 3.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.8% 5.8 3.0 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 43.6% 43.6% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.6% 17.5% 17.5% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-3 1.8% 21.3% 21.3% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4
14-4 3.9% 14.8% 14.8% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 3.3
13-5 6.4% 14.5% 14.5% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 5.5
12-6 9.6% 12.0% 12.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 8.4
11-7 12.8% 8.6% 8.6% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 11.7
10-8 14.2% 5.7% 5.7% 15.7 0.2 0.6 13.4
9-9 14.9% 4.8% 4.8% 15.9 0.1 0.6 14.2
8-10 12.7% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4 12.3
7-11 10.0% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.2 9.8
6-12 6.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 6.2
5-13 3.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.7
4-14 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 2.9 93.5 0.0%