VMI
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -15.5 360
Expected Predictive Rating -16.0 355
Pace 67.9 206
Improvement -3.6 323

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #326 F+ D C D+ C+
Defense F+ #362 F F+ C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 338 49% 352 -6.9 354
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 296 35% 291 -2.7 308
Three Pointers 54% 5 29% 335 +2.7 89
1st FG Attempt 0.88 351 -6.9 351
Second Chance 25.9% 304 0.92 316 0.24 330
Turnovers 17.2% 196
Freethrows 0.29 245 70% 242 0.20 252
Total Offense -6.1 326

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 273 66% 346 -1.2 218
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 240 45% 353 -0.6 237
Three Pointers 46% 48 39% 344 -5.8 354
1st FG Attempt 1.17 361 -7.7 361
Second Chance 40.0% 364 1.02 180 0.41 352
Turnovers 16.8% 189
Freethrows 0.31 197 72% 165 0.22 194
Total Defense -9.4 362

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.2 164 +0.1 178
Shot Type Accuracy -6.9 357 +7.4 362
Possession Length 19.0 331 15.9 16
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 332 0.23 335
Improvement -1.9 #295 -1.6 #280

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 100% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Furman (Home) - 13.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 80 - 12
Quad 44 - 144 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 340 @Southern Indiana W 78 - 74 26% -3  9% 1 - 0 C- -5 D -6 F D B+ C+ +1 D+ C- D-
 Sun, Nov 9 48 @Missouri L 68 - 106 1% -11  18% 1 - 1 F -24 D- -7 B- F F F -14 B F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 308 Jacksonville L 67 - 69 36% -3  11% 1 - 2 D- -14 F -10 F A F D+ -4 F F A+
 Wed, Nov 19 128 @Richmond L 54 - 87 4% -21  0% 1 - 3 F -28 F -17 D- D+ F F -13 F D C
 Sat, Nov 22 333 @Stetson L 80 - 99 23% -9  2% 1 - 4 F -27 B- +5 D D+ A+ F -33 F F D-
 Mon, Nov 24 202 Buffalo L 70 - 78 12% -1  38% 1 - 5 D -11 D -6 F A- A+ D+ -5 C- D B-
 Wed, Nov 26 158 Bowling Green L 48 - 81 8% -22  0% 1 - 6 F -33 F -23 F F D F -12 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 52 @Central Florida L 57 - 82 1% -9  27% 1 - 7 D- -11 F -13 F C- D+ C+ +0 A- A D-
 Tue, Dec 9 312 Loyola Maryland W 86 - 70 37% +15  99% 2 - 7 C+ +4 A+ +14 A- C A+ D- -8 C F C-
 Sun, Dec 21 233 @Radford L 90 - 97 9% -2  30% 2 - 8 D -8 B+ +9 C A+ C- F -17 F F B-
 Thu, Jan 1 194 Samford L 58 - 78 17% -4  47% 2 - 9 0 - 1 F -25 F -20 F F D D -7 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 282 Chattanooga W 79 - 71 30% +8  98% 3 - 9 1 - 1 C- -2 C- -1 B- D- D- C -1 B+ F+ B-
 Wed, Jan 7 126 @East Tennessee St. L 67 - 81 4% -10  1% 3 - 10 1 - 2 D -9 D+ -3 F+ F A+ D -7 F C- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 176 @Furman L 48 - 69 6% -10  12% 3 - 11 1 - 3 F -19 F -22 F D+ F C+ +2 C+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 171 Mercer L 67 - 77 13% -2  22% 3 - 12 1 - 4 D- -14 D- -7 C+ F C- D -7 B+ F A
 Sat, Jan 17 347 The Citadel L 68 - 82 49% -10  4% 3 - 13 1 - 5 F -29 F -13 D- F D F -17 F A- C+
 Wed, Jan 21 302 UNC Greensboro L 78 - 85 33% -6  13% 3 - 14 1 - 6 F -18 C- -1 F A B F -18 F+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 24 263 @Western Carolina L 58 - 88 12% -12  13% 3 - 15 1 - 7 F -33 F+ -9 F D- B- F -30 F F F
 Thu, Jan 29 347 @The Citadel L 56 - 80 28% -12  7% 3 - 16 1 - 8 F -33 F -18 F F D- F -18 F A- F+
 Sat, Jan 31 171 @Mercer L 81 - 95 6% -4  12% 3 - 17 1 - 9 D- -12 C+ +3 C+ F+ B F -14 D- F D
 Wed, Feb 4 212 Wofford L 67 - 81 18% -12  4% 3 - 18 1 - 10 F -20 F -11 D F A- D- -9 F A+ D-
 Sat, Feb 7 126 East Tennessee St. L 70 - 87 9% -10  5% 3 - 19 1 - 11 F -18 D- -7 D+ C- B F+ -11 F F A+
 Wed, Feb 11 302 @UNC Greensboro L 71 - 92 16% -15  1% 3 - 20 1 - 12 F -26 F+ -9 D F D- F -18 F C- D
 Sat, Feb 14 176 Furman L 66 - 78 14%
 Wed, Feb 18 212 @Wofford L 70 - 86 7%
 Sat, Feb 21 263 Western Carolina L 76 - 83 26%
 Thu, Feb 26 194 @Samford L 69 - 85 7%
 Sat, Feb 28 282 @Chattanooga L 68 - 80 14%
Totals 4 - 24 2 - 16 -16 D -6 F+ D C F+ -9 F F+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D- D+ D- F+ 31% 15% 54% C+ F+ D D D C C- C- D+ F+ F+ F+ F+ F 36% 18% 46% C F F C F+ C C C C
1.00 49% 35% 29% -7 0 0.88 26% 0.9 .24 17% .29 70% .20 1.22 66% 45% 39% +7 0 1.17 40% 1.0 .41 17% .31 72% .21
Nov
7		 Southern Indiana D F C+ D- F 41% 14% 46% C+ F D D D B+ C D- C- C+ F+ D- A+ D+ 33% 20% 48% C- D+ D C+ C- D- B F C
1.00 46% 38% 30% -8 +1 0.88 28% 0.8 .23 13% .32 68% .22 0.95 60% 42% 21% -8 0 0.85 30% 0.8 .24 14% .25 76% .19
Nov
9		 Missouri D- F B+ B B 6% 17% 77% D+ B- F+ F F F B+ C+ B+ F F+ C- A+ B 49% 16% 35% D+ B F F F D- F D F
0.90 0% 44% 38% +2 -2 1.02 20% 0.3 .05 22% .34 75% .26 1.40 72% 38% 22% +1 +1 1.06 50% 1.8 .88 15% .54 71% .39
Nov
15		 Jacksonville F F B C F+ 35% 24% 41% D F C A+ A F F A+ F D+ F B C- F 40% 13% 47% D- F F F F A+ A- A+ A+
1.01 47% 42% 35% -2 -1 0.96 30% 1.4 .43 23% .21 82% .17 1.04 67% 33% 33% +2 +1 1.09 39% 1.3 .52 29% .21 50% .11
Nov
19		 Richmond F D+ A+ F F+ 26% 9% 65% A- D- D- B- D+ F A+ F C- F C- F F F 30% 26% 44% C- F D- C D C A A+ A+
0.82 55% 50% 25% -8 +1 0.86 25% 1.2 .31 24% .40 50% .20 1.32 63% 57% 50% +17 -1 1.33 31% 1.0 .31 15% .25 64% .16
Nov
22		 Stetson B- C- D+ C D 36% 15% 49% C+ D C- D D+ A+ D+ F+ D F F F F F 17% 13% 70% C F F F F D- A+ B- A+
1.21 60% 38% 33% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.1 .33 9% .25 67% .17 1.50 89% 57% 50% +25 -1 1.50 35% 1.4 .50 15% .16 67% .11
Nov
24		 Buffalo D D+ B F F 30% 17% 53% D+ F B- A A- A+ A- D- B D+ B+ F F+ C+ 45% 5% 50% F C- D D+ D B- F C- F
1.05 56% 44% 18% -12 0 0.77 36% 1.2 .43 12% .34 70% .24 1.17 50% 50% 40% +2 +2 1.10 31% 1.1 .34 18% .68 76% .51
Nov
26		 Bowling Green F F F F F 40% 5% 56% B+ F C+ F F D A+ A- A+ F F F F+ F 42% 17% 42% B- F F B- F A+ C+ C C
0.72 35% 0% 8% -32 +2 0.42 30% 0.5 .14 21% .61 78% .47 1.22 70% 50% 40% +11 +1 1.25 56% 0.8 .42 24% .30 73% .22
Nov
29		 Central Florida F F F F F 27% 12% 61% C+ F A+ F C- D+ A C- A- C+ F A+ A+ A 36% 24% 41% B- A- F A+ A D- C F C-
0.84 38% 17% 27% -14 0 0.73 36% 0.6 .22 19% .38 71% .27 1.21 95% 14% 17% -3 -1 0.95 56% 0.6 .34 12% .28 82% .23
Dec
9		 Loyola Maryland A+ C A+ A A- 35% 13% 52% B- A- C C C A+ C- D- D+ D- A+ F D+ C 47% 16% 38% D+ C F F+ F C- F A+ D-
1.37 61% 71% 41% +11 +1 1.25 32% 1.2 .39 8% .28 69% .19 1.12 43% 57% 35% -3 +1 0.98 39% 1.1 .45 18% .44 52% .23
Dec
21		 Radford B+ D+ B+ B C+ 38% 19% 44% D+ C D+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ F D- F F F 39% 11% 50% D F F F F B- F F F
1.23 56% 44% 38% +3 0 1.08 30% 1.9 .57 19% .47 89% .42 1.33 65% 60% 45% +14 +1 1.32 40% 1.3 .52 19% .68 80% .54
Jan
1		 Samford F A- D F F 17% 31% 52% F+ F D+ F F D F C F+ D F A+ F F 31% 25% 44% B F D+ A+ A+ D+ F A D
0.86 67% 35% 21% -9 -3 0.78 24% 0.7 .17 15% .21 75% .16 1.16 93% 17% 43% +12 -1 1.23 26% 0.3 .08 12% .46 59% .27
Jan
3		 Chattanooga C- A+ B- C- B- 24% 11% 65% C B- C+ F D- D- A+ C- A+ C D A- A+ B+ 33% 27% 41% B B+ C- F F+ B- F F F
1.14 73% 40% 33% +3 0 1.09 33% 0.8 .28 17% .50 72% .36 1.02 63% 31% 25% -6 -1 0.88 21% 1.4 .29 17% .42 83% .35
Jan
7		 East Tennessee St. D+ D B+ F F 42% 13% 44% C+ F+ C- F F A+ A+ F A D F F D- F 43% 23% 34% B- F A- F C- C- C- D+ D+
1.01 55% 43% 26% -6 +1 0.92 28% 0.4 .10 9% .45 63% .28 1.22 70% 55% 38% +11 0 1.23 21% 1.6 .33 15% .34 79% .27
Jan
10		 Furman F F F F F 31% 18% 51% C F C D D+ F C+ D+ C C+ C+ D- C+ C+ 24% 15% 61% B+ C+ F C- F A+ F A+ D
0.73 29% 25% 22% -21 0 0.60 30% 0.9 .28 24% .26 69% .18 1.05 60% 50% 32% +1 0 1.02 49% 1.0 .49 30% .39 56% .22
Jan
15		 Mercer D- C+ D- A- B- 23% 17% 60% D C+ D F F C- F C+ F D F D+ A+ A 47% 11% 42% F B+ F C- F A F C F
1.01 58% 33% 41% +5 -1 1.11 28% 0.5 .13 18% .07 75% .06 1.16 71% 40% 11% -8 +2 0.89 59% 1.0 .62 21% .46 75% .35
Jan
17		 The Citadel F F+ F C F 47% 2% 51% A D- F D+ F D A+ F+ A+ F B F F F 47% 9% 44% F F D- A+ A- C+ F F F
1.00 52% 0% 35% -3 +3 1.02 18% 1.0 .18 16% .49 64% .32 1.21 50% 75% 47% +9 +2 1.23 32% 0.5 .16 19% .58 84% .49
Jan
21		 UNC Greensboro C- F+ A+ F F 27% 13% 60% C F C- A+ A B A+ F B F A F F F 43% 28% 30% C F+ F+ D+ D- F F C F
1.18 50% 57% 29% -4 0 0.94 29% 1.6 .46 11% .37 59% .22 1.29 45% 46% 50% +4 -1 1.09 33% 1.1 .36 8% .54 70% .38
Jan
24		 Western Carolina F+ C+ F C- F 27% 14% 59% C F F A+ D- B- F A F F D+ F F F 41% 11% 48% D- F F D- F F A+ A+ A+
1.00 62% 0% 34% -4 0 0.94 16% 1.4 .22 14% .12 83% .10 1.51 59% 50% 42% +8 +1 1.20 57% 1.1 .63 7% .06 33% .02
Jan
29		 The Citadel F F F D F 36% 14% 50% C- F F F F D- F A+ D- F F A- F F 13% 15% 73% B+ F F A+ A- F+ C A+ A-
0.89 50% 14% 32% -8 +1 0.88 19% 0.7 .14 17% .19 80% .15 1.27 83% 29% 49% +18 -1 1.35 38% 0.4 .16 14% .28 47% .13
Jan
31		 Mercer C+ C D- C+ C 25% 5% 69% B- C+ F C+ F+ B C A B- F D F A- D 38% 9% 53% F D- F F F D F C- F
1.11 57% 33% 37% +3 +1 1.09 21% 1.0 .21 15% .26 81% .21 1.31 65% 80% 29% +2 +1 1.09 43% 1.2 .51 14% .46 76% .35
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Wofford F C- D C- D 42% 17% 40% C- D F F F A- B- D C+ D- F A F F 27% 22% 51% A F A- A+ A+ D- F D+ F
0.99 55% 33% 33% -3 +1 0.98 21% 0.4 .08 12% .32 74% .23 1.20 79% 27% 42% +10 -1 1.20 22% 0.5 .11 12% .40 75% .30
Feb
7		 East Tennessee St. D- F A+ C- D 39% 6% 56% B+ D+ F A+ C- B C- D- D+ F+ C- F F F 20% 31% 49% A+ F F D- F A+ B+ F B-
0.99 48% 67% 33% -3 +2 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 17% .27 69% .19 1.23 60% 67% 46% +18 -3 1.33 40% 1.3 .52 24% .26 86% .22
Feb
11		 UNC Greensboro F+ C- F C+ D- 38% 7% 55% A- D F D+ F D- F A- F F F F D- F 16% 20% 64% B F D C+ C- D B D- B-
1.03 57% 0% 37% -1 +2 1.04 20% 1.0 .20 16% .15 78% .12 1.33 89% 64% 37% +13 -2 1.25 30% 1.0 .30 13% .32 74% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 49.0 36.9 11.9 1.9 0.1 99.8 10th
Total 49.0 36.9 11.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 2.0% 2.0
3-15 11.9% 11.9
2-16 36.9% 36.9
1-17 49.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 49.0
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 39.1%