Southern Indiana
Ohio Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.8 340
Expected Predictive Rating -17.5 356
Pace 69.7 151
Improvement +0.3 173

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F+ #360 F D- C- D+ C-
Defense C- #229 C- C D+ C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 299 44% 364 -7.3 357
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 143 31% 349 -0.9 227
Three Pointers 43% 130 28% 352 -2.3 267
1st FG Attempt 0.81 365 -10.5 365
Second Chance 26.9% 283 0.82 360 0.22 346
Turnovers 17.6% 221
Freethrows 0.29 228 66% 351 0.19 284
Total Offense -10.1 360

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% 3 59% 220 -6.5 355
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 184 35% 63 +0.8 128
Three Pointers 31% 361 35% 252 +4.4 28
1st FG Attempt 1.05 226 -1.4 225
Second Chance 32.8% 277 0.94 63 0.31 166
Turnovers 15.4% 268
Freethrows 0.32 240 73% 251 0.24 256
Total Defense -1.7 229

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.5 259 +0.7 302
Shot Type Accuracy -9.9 365 +0.6 208
Possession Length 18.1 257 15.6 5
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 296 0.26 362
Improvement -0.3 #206 +0.6 #142

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 20% 9% 26%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Home) - 33.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 31 - 61 - 7
Quad 44 - 165 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 75 @Butler L 58 - 88 3% -18  0% 0 - 1 F -19 F -18 F F B- C +0 C- B B
 Fri, Nov 7 360 VMI L 74 - 78 74% +3  77% 0 - 2 F -23 F -20 F F B+ C- -2 C C F+
 Wed, Nov 12 281 @South Dakota L 74 - 89 23% -9  12% 0 - 3 F -19 F -16 F D D+ C -0 C+ F+ A-
 Thu, Nov 20 255 Incarnate Word L 81 - 87 27% -8  1% 0 - 4 D- -11 C- -2 C- F B+ F+ -9 F C D
 Sat, Nov 22 137 Illinois-Chicago L 73 - 84 11% -11  0% 0 - 5 D -10 D+ -4 C F B- D -5 F A C+
 Wed, Nov 26 155 @Valparaiso W 64 - 56 9% +6  92% 1 - 5 B +11 F+ -8 D B- F+ A+ +19 A+ B D-
 Wed, Dec 3 295 @Western Michigan L 74 - 88 25% -13  1% 1 - 6 F -19 F+ -9 D- F+ A- F+ -10 F D+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 197 @Indiana St. L 55 - 77 13% -11  7% 1 - 7 F -21 F -16 F+ F B- D- -7 D- A F
 Thu, Dec 18 301 Arkansas Little Rock L 62 - 77 47% -4  20% 1 - 8 0 - 1 F -26 F -16 F D+ B+ F+ -10 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 292 Morehead St. L 60 - 64 OT 46% +5  84% 1 - 9 0 - 2 F+ -15 F -16 F F F+ C+ +1 B+ B+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 245 @SIU Edwardsville L 55 - 59 17% -6  0% 1 - 10 0 - 3 D+ -6 F -14 F C- F A- +8 A- F+ A-
 Sat, Jan 3 246 @Lindenwood L 80 - 83 17% -5  10% 1 - 11 0 - 4 C- -5 B- +4 B- D D D- -8 C F D
 Thu, Jan 8 230 Southeast Missouri St. L 76 - 84 31% -5  20% 1 - 12 0 - 5 F+ -15 C- -2 D B D- F -13 F A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 219 Tennessee Martin L 56 - 73 29% -2  32% 1 - 13 0 - 6 F -23 F -12 F C C- F -13 F+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 320 @Tennessee Tech W 71 - 54 32% -0  30% 2 - 13 1 - 6 B +10 D- -6 F F+ A+ A+ +17 A A C-
 Sat, Jan 17 235 @Tennessee St. L 67 - 73 16% -4  14% 2 - 14 1 - 7 D+ -7 D- -7 F+ F+ C- C +0 D A- F
 Thu, Jan 22 326 Eastern Illinois L 51 - 59 OT 56% +3  73% 2 - 15 1 - 8 F -21 F -28 F D+ F B+ +7 A- B+ C-
 Fri, Jan 23 362 Western Illinois W 96 - 64 78% +22  99% 3 - 15 2 - 8 B+ +12 B+ +7 B- D+ D+ B- +3 B B- F
 Thu, Jan 29 246 Lindenwood L 60 - 73 34% -8  6% 3 - 16 2 - 9 F -21 F -23 F D+ F B- +4 B- B C
 Sat, Jan 31 245 SIU Edwardsville L 46 - 58 34% -0  55% 3 - 17 2 - 10 F -20 F -22 F F F+ C +0 C D B+
 Thu, Feb 5 219 @Tennessee Martin L 54 - 76 14% -13  0% 3 - 18 2 - 11 F -22 F -13 F F C- F+ -11 D+ F B-
 Sat, Feb 7 230 @Southeast Missouri St. L 65 - 90 15% -5  40% 3 - 19 2 - 12 F -26 D- -7 F D B F -19 C- F F
 Thu, Feb 12 235 Tennessee St. L 72 - 77 33%
 Sat, Feb 14 320 Tennessee Tech W 72 - 71 54%
 Thu, Feb 19 362 @Western Illinois W 69 - 67 57%
 Sat, Feb 21 326 @Eastern Illinois L 62 - 67 33%
 Tue, Feb 24 292 @Morehead St. L 66 - 73 25%
 Sat, Feb 28 301 @Arkansas Little Rock L 65 - 72 27%
Totals 5 - 23 4 - 16 -12 F+ -10 F D- C- C- -2 C- C D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F+ F D- F+ F 34% 22% 43% C- F D+ F D- C- C- F+ D+ C- C- B D+ C- 49% 20% 31% D C- D+ B C D+ C- C- C-
0.94 44% 31% 28% -10 -1 0.81 27% 0.8 .22 18% .29 66% .19 1.11 59% 35% 35% +1 +1 1.05 33% 0.9 .31 15% .32 73% .22
Nov
5		 Butler F F F D F 33% 22% 45% C- F F+ F F B- B+ C B C B+ B F C 64% 11% 25% F C- D A+ B B F B- F
0.77 37% 15% 31% -14 -1 0.72 20% 0.6 .12 16% .27 71% .19 1.17 50% 33% 54% +2 +3 1.11 40% 0.9 .36 17% .47 69% .32
Nov
7		 VMI F C- C F F 33% 20% 48% C- F F F F B+ D- B D+ C- B+ C- B- C+ 41% 14% 46% D C C- B- C F+ D B- D+
0.95 60% 42% 21% -8 0 0.85 30% 0.8 .24 14% .25 76% .19 1.00 46% 38% 30% -8 +1 0.88 28% 0.8 .23 13% .32 68% .22
Nov
12		 South Dakota F F F F F 44% 19% 37% D F F A+ D D+ A+ A A+ C D- A+ B+ B- 61% 24% 14% D C+ F+ D F+ A- F D- F
0.88 43% 20% 21% -17 +1 0.69 22% 1.6 .34 18% .48 82% .39 1.06 63% 8% 29% -5 +1 0.94 34% 1.1 .37 21% .70 80% .56
Nov
20		 Incarnate Word C- B+ A+ F C- 42% 21% 37% D+ C- F F F B+ D B D+ F+ F+ D F F 55% 27% 18% D- F D B C D F B F
1.11 67% 58% 24% +2 0 1.07 21% 0.9 .18 14% .33 76% .25 1.19 64% 43% 44% +8 0 1.18 35% 0.8 .29 14% .46 66% .30
Nov
22		 Illinois-Chicago D+ B+ A+ F C- 38% 9% 53% B+ C C- F F B- B- F F D D+ F C D- 60% 13% 27% F F C+ A+ A C+ F F F
0.99 64% 80% 23% -3 +2 0.98 35% 0.6 .21 19% .34 40% .13 1.14 59% 50% 33% +2 +2 1.11 35% 0.7 .26 19% .55 85% .47
Nov
26		 Valparaiso F+ F+ F C+ D 27% 22% 51% D D B- C+ B- F+ A+ F B+ A+ A A- A+ A+ 27% 36% 37% B+ A+ D- A+ B D- A+ A+ A+
0.91 50% 20% 35% -5 -1 0.89 34% 0.9 .32 21% .45 60% .27 0.80 44% 29% 14% -19 -3 0.59 36% 0.8 .28 13% .16 60% .10
Dec
3		 Western Michigan F+ F D+ A+ D 33% 23% 44% D- D- F B- F+ A- A+ F A- F+ D- F D- F 49% 15% 36% F F A+ F D+ D- A B+ A
1.02 38% 36% 43% -1 -1 0.98 20% 1.2 .24 10% .55 50% .28 1.22 62% 56% 38% +7 +1 1.19 17% 2.0 .34 14% .19 67% .13
Dec
7		 Indiana St. F F F C F+ 33% 25% 41% D+ F+ F F F B- C- B C D- D- A+ F+ F+ 52% 9% 39% C- D- C A+ A F A- F C+
0.84 41% 31% 33% -8 -1 0.84 16% 0.3 .05 14% .23 77% .18 1.18 68% 20% 38% +6 +2 1.19 25% 0.5 .13 14% .18 90% .16
Dec
18		 Arkansas Little Rock F D- F C- F 38% 15% 48% C- F F A+ D+ B+ B- F F+ F+ F F F F 41% 17% 41% F F F A+ A+ A+ F B F
0.92 56% 0% 35% -6 +1 0.92 21% 1.4 .29 16% .32 44% .14 1.14 74% 50% 47% +17 +1 1.37 39% 0.2 .06 25% .38 63% .24
Dec
20		 Morehead St. F F F C+ F 17% 25% 58% F F B- F F F+ A A- A+ C+ B+ A C A- 54% 28% 18% F+ B+ A- B- B+ F F B+ D-
0.95 25% 25% 36% -7 -2 0.83 40% 0.4 .18 19% .43 77% .33 1.01 48% 29% 33% -8 0 0.86 29% 0.8 .23 13% .40 68% .27
Jan
1		 SIU Edwardsville F F F F F 44% 19% 37% B F C D C- F A+ F B- A- A+ C+ F A 40% 33% 27% C- A- F C+ F+ A- F A+ F
0.83 42% 25% 25% -14 +1 0.74 34% 0.9 .29 26% .51 52% .26 0.89 28% 33% 42% -11 -2 0.78 38% 0.9 .36 23% .51 58% .29
Jan
3		 Lindenwood B- A B F B- 46% 21% 32% C- B- C F D D F+ A+ D+ D- B- A+ C- B- 70% 19% 11% F C F F F D A+ F A-
1.12 69% 42% 28% +3 0 1.09 33% 0.8 .27 20% .24 86% .21 1.16 54% 10% 33% -8 +2 0.91 46% 1.5 .69 17% .20 75% .15
Jan
8		 Southeast Missouri St. C- D- A+ F D 41% 14% 45% C+ D B+ C- B D- A A+ A+ F F D+ F F 50% 24% 26% C+ F B A+ A+ F+ F A+ D
1.08 50% 71% 27% -3 +1 0.98 35% 1.2 .41 21% .49 85% .42 1.20 68% 42% 54% +14 0 1.30 25% 0.7 .18 13% .46 54% .25
Jan
10		 Tennessee Martin F F D- D- F 30% 23% 48% C- F C- B- C C- A+ F A+ F B- A+ F D- 53% 14% 33% F F+ F D F C+ F F F
0.89 23% 30% 29% -16 -1 0.68 32% 1.0 .32 19% .57 62% .36 1.17 52% 17% 50% +2 +2 1.09 53% 1.0 .53 22% .41 80% .33
Jan
15		 Tennessee Tech D- F F D F 55% 8% 37% A+ F C- F F+ A+ C F F A+ A- F A+ A+ 47% 16% 37% F A C+ A+ A C- C+ A+ B+
1.04 45% 0% 32% -11 +3 0.85 30% 0.9 .28 4% .29 47% .14 0.79 46% 50% 16% -14 +1 0.76 29% 0.6 .17 19% .27 60% .16
Jan
17		 Tennessee St. D- F B- C+ D- 35% 17% 48% D F+ C+ F F+ C- F F F C D+ A C+ C- 52% 20% 29% F D A+ C A- F B C+ B
0.99 44% 44% 36% -2 0 0.98 33% 0.7 .23 19% .17 67% .11 1.08 62% 27% 31% -1 +1 1.02 21% 1.0 .21 7% .22 71% .16
Jan
22		 Eastern Illinois F F F F F 33% 18% 49% D F D- C+ D+ F A+ F A+ B+ D+ B+ A+ B 28% 50% 22% A+ A- A C B+ C- F D+ F
0.71 38% 22% 8% -28 0 0.45 29% 1.1 .33 24% .49 70% .34 0.82 57% 28% 18% -10 -5 0.72 18% 1.0 .18 18% .37 77% .29
Jan
23		 Western Illinois B+ C- A+ A B- 42% 18% 40% C- B- B- F D+ D+ D- A D+ B- C+ A+ A+ B 42% 33% 25% C B A D B- F F+ D F+
1.31 60% 55% 42% +9 +1 1.20 36% 0.9 .33 16% .26 81% .21 0.87 50% 24% 23% -12 -1 0.75 19% 1.0 .19 12% .37 71% .26
Jan
29		 Lindenwood F F B- D- F 49% 19% 32% C F A- F D+ F A- F C B- F A+ A+ C+ 44% 35% 21% A B- C- A+ B C F F F
0.77 23% 40% 29% -19 +1 0.66 41% 0.8 .31 27% .39 59% .23 0.94 70% 17% 18% -7 -1 0.85 33% 0.9 .29 19% .43 78% .34
Jan
31		 SIU Edwardsville F B+ F F F 17% 38% 46% F F D- F F F+ D- B- D C C F A+ C+ 49% 27% 24% F C C+ F D B+ F F F
0.76 63% 17% 23% -15 -4 0.65 28% 0.6 .18 20% .27 77% .21 0.96 55% 45% 20% -5 0 0.93 26% 1.3 .33 22% .38 78% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Tennessee Martin F F F D F 23% 34% 43% F F C- F F C- A C- A- F+ B- F C- D 28% 26% 46% A- D+ F D F B- D+ A+ B
0.84 45% 13% 30% -14 -3 0.68 32% 0.6 .18 19% .42 68% .29 1.18 54% 50% 33% +2 -1 1.02 55% 1.0 .55 23% .35 53% .18
Feb
7		 Southeast Missouri St. D- F B- F F 44% 18% 38% C F C+ F D B C D- D+ F F C+ A+ D+ 53% 23% 23% C- C- F F F F F F F
0.96 41% 44% 26% -11 +1 0.82 30% 0.9 .27 16% .41 70% .28 1.33 68% 36% 18% -1 +1 1.02 44% 1.6 .70 9% .52 88% .45



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.2 7th
8th 0.6 1.5 0.2 2.4 8th
9th 3.7 6.4 1.7 0.0 11.8 9th
10th 2.3 17.2 30.7 21.2 5.9 0.3 77.6 10th
11th 4.0 3.5 0.6 8.1 11th
Total 6.3 20.6 31.2 25.0 13.0 3.5 0.4 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 0.4% 0.4
7-13 3.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.5
6-14 13.0% 13.0
5-15 25.0% 25.0
4-16 31.2% 31.2
3-17 20.6% 20.6
2-18 6.3% 6.3
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.3%