Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
214 Tennessee Martin 20.0%   16   6 - 4 1 - 1 18 - 10 13 - 7 -3.5      -2.7 243 -0.7 191 66.0 274 +1.7 145 -2.6 3
215 Southeast Missouri St. 18.4%   3 - 7 1 - 1 14 - 13 12 - 7 -3.5      -1.9 220 -1.5 215 74.6 53 -4.4 237 -2.6 3
229 Lindenwood 17.7%   5 - 5 2 - 0 16 - 12 13 - 7 -4.1      -3.7 271 -0.5 176 78.2 21 -2.4 200 +5.3 2
237 Tennessee St. 13.0%   4 - 5 1 - 1 14 - 11 11 - 7 -4.5      -4.5 291 0.0 165 74.9 52 -0.3 170 -6.5 5
249 SIU Edwardsville 13.2%   5 - 5 1 - 1 15 - 13 11 - 9 -5.0      -5.4 318 +0.4 147 65.4 288 -5.1 246 -8.8 9
285 Tennessee Tech 6.8%   3 - 7 1 - 1 12 - 15 10 - 9 -6.6      -3.4 263 -3.2 287 71.8 116 -6.4 258 -6.5 5
307 Morehead St. 4.7%   3 - 7 2 - 0 11 - 17 10 - 10 -8.4      -5.6 322 -2.8 270 67.4 240 -8.3 295 +5.5 1
309 Arkansas Little Rock 3.6%   2 - 9 1 - 1 10 - 19 9 - 11 -8.5      -5.1 308 -3.4 291 66.3 266 -9.3 310 -6.9 7
325 Eastern Illinois 2.0%   2 - 8 1 - 1 9 - 19 8 - 12 -9.8      -7.0 339 -2.8 269 66.1 272 -9.8 314 -7.6 8
339 Southern Indiana 0.6%   1 - 9 0 - 2 7 - 21 6 - 14 -11.4      -8.1 350 -3.2 286 72.0 109 -17.9 355 -26.6 11
356 Western Illinois 0.2%   1 - 9 0 - 2 6 - 22 5 - 15 -13.8      -7.9 347 -5.8 342 64.3 314 -16.8 350 -20.8 10




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 20 215 Southeast Missouri St. 91 237 Tennessee St. 82   
Sat, Dec 20 285 Tennessee Tech 62 214 Tennessee Martin 86   
Sat, Dec 20 307 Morehead St. 64 339 Southern Indiana 60   
Mon, Dec 22 249 SIU Edwardsville 66 356 Western Illinois 61   
Tue, Dec 23 229 Lindenwood 65 254 Missouri St. 70   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Tennessee Martin 3.1 31.0 19.9 14.6 11.0 8.2 6.1 4.1 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.2
Southeast Missouri St. 3.5 21.7 19.4 15.8 12.9 10.2 7.5 5.5 3.7 2.1 0.9 0.3
Lindenwood 3.2 31.0 19.0 13.9 10.7 8.4 6.6 4.7 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.1
Tennessee St. 4.6 9.3 13.9 14.9 14.6 13.2 11.3 8.9 6.6 4.5 2.2 0.8
SIU Edwardsville 4.3 15.9 15.0 13.4 12.8 11.4 9.7 8.3 6.7 4.2 1.9 0.6
Tennessee Tech 5.7 5.2 8.1 10.3 11.6 12.6 12.9 12.6 11.0 8.5 5.1 2.0
Morehead St. 5.5 7.4 8.4 10.0 11.0 11.9 12.5 12.5 11.3 8.9 4.8 1.5
Arkansas Little Rock 6.3 4.0 5.7 7.4 8.7 10.6 12.2 13.8 14.2 12.5 7.9 3.0
Eastern Illinois 7.2 1.9 3.2 4.9 6.5 8.2 11.0 12.9 15.3 16.3 13.0 6.8
Southern Indiana 9.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.0 3.2 4.6 7.5 11.2 17.2 27.3 24.8
Western Illinois 9.7 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.7 4.6 7.9 13.3 24.9 43.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Tennessee Martin 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 3.0 5.3 8.3 11.3 13.7 15.2 14.4 11.4 8.1 4.5 1.7 0.4
Southeast Missouri St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 4.2 7.0 10.3 13.3 15.1 15.7 13.5 9.4 5.3 2.2 0.4
Lindenwood 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.4 5.6 8.6 11.4 13.5 14.5 13.9 10.7 7.7 4.7 2.1 0.7 0.2
Tennessee St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.5 7.3 11.0 14.1 15.6 15.4 12.9 8.5 4.7 1.7 0.3
SIU Edwardsville 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 4.4 6.9 9.6 12.3 14.1 14.3 12.5 10.0 6.4 3.6 1.5 0.4 0.1
Tennessee Tech 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.8 5.4 8.4 11.5 14.3 15.0 13.6 11.4 7.8 4.7 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
Morehead St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.8 5.5 8.6 11.6 13.7 14.2 13.1 10.9 7.9 5.0 2.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.5 4.8 8.2 11.4 13.7 14.6 13.5 11.4 8.3 5.2 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1
Eastern Illinois 8 - 12 0.1 0.6 2.2 4.7 8.1 11.3 13.9 14.6 13.9 11.3 8.2 5.5 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Southern Indiana 6 - 14 0.4 2.1 5.3 9.3 12.9 14.9 15.2 13.3 10.4 7.3 4.4 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Illinois 5 - 15 1.3 4.8 10.1 13.5 16.5 15.6 13.5 9.9 6.8 4.0 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Tennessee Martin 31.0% 20.7 7.5 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 21.7% 13.1 6.1 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
Lindenwood 31.0% 21.1 7.3 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Tennessee St. 9.3% 4.3 3.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 15.9% 9.4 4.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Tech 5.2% 2.5 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Morehead St. 7.4% 4.0 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock 4.0% 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Eastern Illinois 1.9% 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Indiana 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Western Illinois 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Tennessee Martin 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.2 0.9 3.8 9.1 5.9 80.0 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 6.7 9.4 81.6 0.0%
Lindenwood 17.7% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 6.3 9.7 82.3 0.0%
Tennessee St. 13.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 1.8 5.7 5.0 87.0 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.8 8.6 86.8 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.1 93.2 0.0%
Morehead St. 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 4.3 95.3 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 3.3 96.4 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.9 98.0 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Tennessee Martin 20.0% 1.8% 19.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 18.4% 3.9% 16.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 17.7% 3.9% 15.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 13.0% 1.6% 12.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 13.2% 4.1% 11.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 6.8% 2.9% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 4.7% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 3.6% 2.6% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 2.0% 1.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 87.1% 0.9 13.0 87.1
2nd Round 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0