Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
219 Tennessee Martin 27.9%   16   16 - 6 11 - 3 -3.0      -4.9 303 +1.9 116 63.7 313 +0.4 154 -1.2 1
230 Southeast Missouri St. 15.3%   12 - 10 10 - 4 -3.7      -3.0 255 -0.7 196 72.7 72 -4.8 239 -4.0 4
235 Tennessee St. 15.9%   13 - 8 10 - 4 -4.2      -1.1 196 -3.1 271 74.9 33 -2.0 203 -3.7 3
245 SIU Edwardsville 16.1%   13 - 9 9 - 5 -4.6      -6.4 330 +1.8 119 62.9 327 -4.7 237 -4.0 5
246 Lindenwood 15.6%   12 - 10 9 - 5 -4.6      -4.2 283 -0.5 186 79.5 9 -4.1 231 -4.2 6
292 Morehead St. 6.5%   10 - 12 9 - 5 -7.7      -2.4 231 -5.3 323 64.7 285 -5.0 243 -2.8 2
301 Arkansas Little Rock 1.9%   7 - 16 6 - 8 -8.1      -4.3 287 -3.8 290 65.9 251 -8.8 304 -8.3 7
320 Tennessee Tech 0.3%   7 - 15 5 - 9 -10.0      -4.4 290 -5.6 327 69.0 171 -10.9 330 -12.2 9
326 Eastern Illinois 0.6%   7 - 16 6 - 9 -10.2      -9.6 356 -0.6 192 65.5 263 -9.8 318 -9.6 8
340 Southern Indiana 0.0%   3 - 19 2 - 12 -11.8      -10.1 360 -1.7 229 69.7 151 -17.5 356 -17.9 10
362 Western Illinois 0.0%   2 - 21 1 - 14 -16.8      -9.7 357 -7.2 348 65.3 269 -18.5 358 -20.9 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Feb 10 326 Eastern Illinois 70 362 Western Illinois 79   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Feb 12 245 SIU Edwardsville 69 230 Southeast Missouri St. 67 58%   
Thu, Feb 12 246 Lindenwood 72 219 Tennessee Martin 70 55%   
Thu, Feb 12 292 Morehead St. 77 320 Tennessee Tech 71 70%   
Thu, Feb 12 340 Southern Indiana 72 235 Tennessee St. 77 67%   
Thu, Feb 12 301 Arkansas Little Rock 72 362 Western Illinois 67 71%   
Sat, Feb 14 246 Lindenwood 80 230 Southeast Missouri St. 78 58%   
Sat, Feb 14 245 SIU Edwardsville 62 219 Tennessee Martin 61 55%   
Sat, Feb 14 292 Morehead St. 77 235 Tennessee St. 78 52%   
Sat, Feb 14 326 Eastern Illinois 67 301 Arkansas Little Rock 66 53%   
Sat, Feb 14 340 Southern Indiana 72 320 Tennessee Tech 71 55%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Tennessee Martin 1.5 74.1 12.8 7.1 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 3.5 11.7 18.7 20.4 18.4 17.2 12.4 1.2 0.0
Tennessee St. 3.2 16.5 23.4 19.4 15.9 13.9 10.3 0.6 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 3.2 16.7 24.3 20.2 15.8 12.8 9.5 0.6 0.0
Lindenwood 3.3 15.4 21.5 19.5 16.3 14.4 11.9 1.0 0.1
Morehead St. 3.5 10.5 21.2 20.0 17.9 15.7 12.9 1.8 0.1
Arkansas Little Rock 6.9 0.0 0.6 2.0 4.7 11.9 62.2 15.5 3.0
Tennessee Tech 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 7.3 29.5 58.8 3.9
Eastern Illinois 7.8 0.1 0.3 2.7 31.3 52.3 13.0 0.3
Southern Indiana 9.9 0.2 2.4 11.8 77.6 8.1
Western Illinois 10.8 0.2 20.2 79.6

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Tennessee Martin 15 - 5 20 - 8 0.4 4.3 14.1 27.9 30.5 17.4 5.3
Southeast Missouri St. 13 - 6 15 - 12 2.6 14.8 30.8 32.3 16.0 3.5
Tennessee St. 13 - 6 16 - 10 2.2 10.8 26.8 33.0 21.1 6.2
SIU Edwardsville 13 - 7 17 - 11 0.2 2.2 11.0 24.5 32.8 22.9 6.5
Lindenwood 13 - 7 16 - 12 0.3 3.4 13.2 26.1 30.9 20.3 5.7
Morehead St. 13 - 7 14 - 14 0.6 4.4 15.6 26.7 30.0 18.3 4.5
Arkansas Little Rock 9 - 11 10 - 19 0.9 6.1 17.4 28.9 27.6 15.0 4.2
Tennessee Tech 7 - 13 9 - 19 10.5 26.5 32.0 20.8 8.3 1.8 0.1
Eastern Illinois 8 - 12 9 - 19 5.2 22.8 35.3 26.7 9.0 1.0
Southern Indiana 4 - 16 5 - 23 6.3 20.6 31.2 25.0 13.0 3.5 0.4
Western Illinois 2 - 18 3 - 25 23.6 38.7 26.3 9.7 1.6 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Tennessee Martin 74.1% 49.7 15.7 6.6 1.7 0.4 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 11.7% 2.6 4.7 3.1 0.9 0.3 0.0
Tennessee St. 16.5% 5.6 5.8 3.8 1.0 0.3 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 16.7% 4.4 6.4 4.2 1.3 0.3 0.0
Lindenwood 15.4% 4.0 6.1 3.8 1.2 0.3 0.0
Morehead St. 10.5% 1.9 3.9 3.1 1.2 0.3 0.0
Arkansas Little Rock
Tennessee Tech
Eastern Illinois
Southern Indiana
Western Illinois


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Tennessee Martin 27.9% 27.9% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.7 4.9 15.2 7.1 72.1 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 5.5 8.9 84.8 0.0%
Tennessee St. 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.5 7.6 6.8 84.1 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 16.1% 16.1% 0.0% 0.3 3.7 12.0 83.9 0.0%
Lindenwood 15.6% 15.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 4.5 10.5 84.4 0.0%
Morehead St. 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 5.5 93.6 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 1.8 98.1 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.4 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 89.6% 0.9 10.4 89.6
2nd Round 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Tennessee Martin 27.9% 1.3% 27.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 15.3% 2.9% 13.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 15.9% 1.5% 15.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 16.1% 5.7% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 15.6% 4.2% 13.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 6.5% 3.2% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 1.9% 1.7% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%