Preseason Rankings
Ohio Valley
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
177 Arkansas Little Rock 28.5%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 14 - 6 -1.4      -1.6 220 +0.2 154 67.1 208 0.0 1 0.0 1
231 Southeast Missouri St. 15.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 13 12 - 7 -3.8      -3.2 268 -0.7 187 71.1 94 0.0 1 0.0 1
240 SIU Edwardsville 15.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 12 - 8 -4.4      -4.0 289 -0.3 177 65.4 253 0.0 1 0.0 1
259 Tennessee St. 11.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 13 10 - 8 -5.2      -2.7 248 -2.6 262 74.9 34 0.0 1 0.0 1
293 Morehead St. 7.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 10 - 10 -7.3      -5.2 318 -2.1 245 61.8 334 0.0 1 0.0 1
298 Southern Indiana 7.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 15 10 - 10 -7.5      -3.0 260 -4.5 315 67.5 195 0.0 1 0.0 1
322 Eastern Illinois 3.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 8 - 12 -9.6      -7.4 356 -2.2 247 66.1 230 0.0 1 0.0 1
323 Tennessee Martin 3.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 12 -9.6      -4.7 307 -4.9 324 66.0 235 0.0 1 0.0 1
327 Lindenwood 3.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 8 - 12 -9.8      -6.6 345 -3.3 282 72.5 65 0.0 1 0.0 1
328 Tennessee Tech 2.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 11 -9.9      -4.8 310 -5.1 326 69.0 145 0.0 1 0.0 1
339 Western Illinois 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 13 -11.2      -6.0 335 -5.2 331 62.4 329 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Arkansas Little Rock 2.8 41.2 18.8 12.0 8.4 6.4 4.6 3.2 2.4 1.6 1.0 0.4
Southeast Missouri St. 4.2 16.2 17.1 15.0 12.5 10.2 8.5 6.9 5.4 3.7 2.9 1.6
SIU Edwardsville 4.0 20.5 17.2 13.4 11.2 9.5 7.8 6.6 5.2 3.9 2.8 1.7
Tennessee St. 5.1 8.8 12.3 12.9 12.6 11.8 10.6 9.5 7.8 6.1 4.7 3.0
Morehead St. 5.5 8.8 10.7 11.0 10.9 10.5 10.0 9.5 8.9 7.8 6.9 5.0
Southern Indiana 5.6 8.6 9.7 10.7 10.5 10.8 10.2 9.7 9.0 8.3 7.0 5.4
Eastern Illinois 6.8 4.0 5.8 7.1 8.5 9.1 9.9 11.0 11.3 11.3 11.4 10.7
Tennessee Martin 6.8 4.1 6.0 7.1 8.5 8.7 9.7 10.7 11.3 11.7 11.3 11.0
Lindenwood 6.9 4.0 5.4 6.8 7.9 8.7 9.5 10.8 11.4 11.6 12.3 11.7
Tennessee Tech 7.3 2.3 4.1 5.7 6.9 8.7 9.6 10.9 11.7 12.8 13.6 13.6
Western Illinois 7.6 2.1 3.9 4.8 5.8 7.3 8.6 10.2 11.7 13.0 15.3 17.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Arkansas Little Rock 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 2.7 4.0 5.4 7.0 9.0 9.8 11.3 11.5 11.6 9.8 7.4 4.6 1.8
Southeast Missouri St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.0 4.3 6.3 7.9 9.6 10.6 11.6 11.3 10.5 8.6 6.3 3.8 1.9 0.5
SIU Edwardsville 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.9 3.1 4.5 5.7 7.6 8.7 9.8 10.6 10.3 10.2 8.7 6.9 5.2 3.1 1.4 0.4
Tennessee St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.5 4.9 6.8 8.5 10.2 11.2 11.5 10.7 9.8 7.9 5.7 3.5 1.5 0.4
Morehead St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.1 4.9 6.2 8.2 9.0 9.7 10.2 9.9 9.5 8.0 6.5 4.7 3.3 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1
Southern Indiana 10 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.2 3.4 4.8 6.6 8.2 9.3 9.9 10.3 10.0 9.1 7.7 6.1 4.7 3.0 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1
Eastern Illinois 8 - 12 0.3 1.2 2.3 4.2 6.2 7.9 9.3 10.3 10.9 9.9 9.4 8.1 6.6 5.1 3.4 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Martin 8 - 12 0.3 1.1 2.6 4.3 6.3 7.7 9.3 10.5 10.4 9.7 9.3 7.9 6.8 5.1 3.5 2.3 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lindenwood 8 - 12 0.4 1.3 2.7 4.6 6.4 8.4 9.5 10.3 10.7 10.2 9.0 7.5 6.1 4.9 3.5 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Tech 8 - 12 0.5 1.6 3.4 5.3 7.2 9.3 10.6 10.9 10.9 10.1 8.6 7.3 5.2 4.0 2.4 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Western Illinois 7 - 13 0.7 2.2 4.4 6.7 8.6 9.9 10.9 10.9 10.6 9.0 7.5 5.9 4.6 3.3 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arkansas Little Rock 41.2% 31.6 7.8 1.5 0.2 0.0
Southeast Missouri St. 16.2% 10.4 4.4 1.1 0.2 0.0
SIU Edwardsville 20.5% 14.4 4.9 1.0 0.2 0.0
Tennessee St. 8.8% 5.2 2.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
Morehead St. 8.8% 5.7 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
Southern Indiana 8.6% 5.5 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Eastern Illinois 4.0% 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Martin 4.1% 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lindenwood 4.0% 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tennessee Tech 2.3% 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Western Illinois 2.1% 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arkansas Little Rock 28.5% 28.5% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.4 5.0 7.5 7.8 6.8 71.5 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 3.6 5.2 4.9 84.7 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 15.2% 15.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.3 4.9 5.9 84.8 0.0%
Tennessee St. 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 4.0 4.4 88.6 0.0%
Morehead St. 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.6 4.0 92.8 0.0%
Southern Indiana 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.1 92.8 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.1 96.6 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 96.4 0.0%
Lindenwood 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.0 96.8 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 97.1 0.0%
Western Illinois 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 98.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arkansas Little Rock 28.5% 3.1% 28.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southeast Missouri St. 15.3% 2.4% 15.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SIU Edwardsville 15.2% 3.1% 15.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee St. 11.4% 2.2% 11.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morehead St. 7.2% 2.3% 7.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Indiana 7.2% 2.3% 6.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Illinois 3.4% 1.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Martin 3.6% 1.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lindenwood 3.2% 1.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tennessee Tech 2.9% 1.1% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Illinois 2.0% 1.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 91.8% 1.0 8.2 84.7 7.1
2nd Round 2.8% 0.0 97.2 2.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0