Tennessee Tech
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.0 320
Expected Predictive Rating -10.9 330
Pace 69.0 171
Improvement -2.6 288

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #290 D+ C- D- C- C-
Defense D #327 D D- D+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 209 54% 270 -2.1 256
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 119 36% 242 +0.6 139
Three Pointers 39% 217 32% 255 -2.0 252
1st FG Attempt 0.95 286 -3.4 282
Second Chance 30.1% 193 0.99 227 0.30 205
Turnovers 19.8% 335
Freethrows 0.28 254 74% 122 0.21 223
Total Offense -4.4 290

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 190 60% 246 -0.9 205
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 204 40% 247 +0.0 191
Three Pointers 42% 144 38% 336 -3.0 310
1st FG Attempt 1.10 300 -3.9 301
Second Chance 32.3% 257 1.22 359 0.40 343
Turnovers 15.2% 290
Freethrows 0.30 173 75% 316 0.22 200
Total Defense -5.6 327

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.4 245 +0.1 187
Shot Type Accuracy -3.0 290 +3.7 313
Possession Length 17.4 183 17.1 159
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 190 0.21 315
Improvement +1.5 #101 -4.1 #350

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 2% 5% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Morehead St. (Away) - 30.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 31 - 51 - 8
Quad 48 - 129 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 160 @Western Kentucky L 70 - 82 12% -9  3% 0 - 1 D -9 D- -8 C- B+ F C -1 A- F C
 Fri, Nov 7 168 @Charlotte L 65 - 70 13% -10  0% 0 - 2 C- -3 D- -7 D+ A+ F B +5 D+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 17 317 West Georgia L 59 - 61 60% -6  13% 0 - 3 F+ -15 F -21 F C- F B +6 B+ A B+
 Wed, Nov 19 297 @South Carolina Upstate W 88 - 84 31% +3  73% 1 - 3 C -1 B- +4 B- A- F D+ -5 F+ B F
 Wed, Nov 26 24 @Kentucky L 54 - 104 1% -18  15% 1 - 4 F -31 F -14 F C- B F -14 F F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 36 @Georgia L 81 - 123 1% -23  0% 1 - 5 F -25 D+ -3 C- C- A- F -14 F B- D
 Wed, Dec 3 187 @Lipscomb L 80 - 83 15% -1  41% 1 - 6 C- -2 C +1 B- C- B- C- -2 C- C D+
 Sat, Dec 6 317 @West Georgia W 87 - 59 37% +10  86% 2 - 6 A +21 B+ +8 A+ F C- A+ +14 A+ F B+
 Thu, Dec 18 230 Southeast Missouri St. W 85 - 74 37% +2  49% 3 - 6 1 - 0 C+ +4 B- +5 D- B- B+ C -1 A+ F B
 Sat, Dec 20 219 Tennessee Martin L 62 - 86 35% -7  8% 3 - 7 1 - 1 F -30 D- -7 B+ D- F F -26 F B+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 235 Tennessee St. L 76 - 88 39% -9  15% 3 - 8 1 - 2 F -19 D -4 B D- D- F -15 D- F C-
 Thu, Jan 1 301 @Arkansas Little Rock L 58 - 77 32% -5  18% 3 - 9 1 - 3 F -24 F -18 F C F D -7 F C D
 Thu, Jan 8 326 @Eastern Illinois L 61 - 71 39% +2  72% 3 - 10 1 - 4 F+ -17 D -6 D- D F F -13 D- F F
 Sat, Jan 10 362 @Western Illinois W 59 - 54 65% -2  28% 4 - 10 2 - 4 D -9 F -15 F F D- B+ +7 D C+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 340 Southern Indiana L 54 - 71 68% +0  58% 4 - 11 2 - 5 F -32 F -23 F F F+ F+ -9 C- D F
 Sat, Jan 17 292 Morehead St. L 70 - 76 53% -7  8% 4 - 12 2 - 6 F+ -17 D -5 F A- B F -12 C+ F F
 Thu, Jan 22 246 @Lindenwood L 68 - 89 21% -19  0% 4 - 13 2 - 7 F -23 F -12 F F+ F+ D- -9 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 24 245 @SIU Edwardsville L 58 - 62 21% -9  0% 4 - 14 2 - 8 D+ -6 D+ -2 D- C- A+ D+ -4 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 31 301 Arkansas Little Rock W 87 - 77 54% +8  88% 5 - 14 3 - 8 C -1 B+ +9 B+ B+ F F+ -10 F A+ F
 Mon, Feb 2 235 @Tennessee St. W 90 - 85 20% +10  92% 6 - 14 4 - 8 C+ +4 A+ +14 A+ D+ B- F+ -11 D F D-
 Thu, Feb 5 362 Western Illinois W 97 - 72 82% +18  94% 7 - 14 5 - 8 B- +5 A+ +26 A+ A+ B- F -17 F F C-
 Sat, Feb 7 326 Eastern Illinois L 54 - 60 62% -7  1% 7 - 15 5 - 9 F -19 F -19 F C+ F C -1 C C- D-
 Thu, Feb 12 292 @Morehead St. L 72 - 77 30%
 Sat, Feb 14 340 @Southern Indiana L 71 - 72 46%
 Thu, Feb 19 245 SIU Edwardsville L 67 - 69 41%
 Sat, Feb 21 246 Lindenwood L 77 - 79 42%
 Thu, Feb 26 219 @Tennessee Martin L 64 - 74 17%
 Sat, Feb 28 230 @Southeast Missouri St. L 71 - 80 20%
Totals 9 - 19 7 - 13 -10 D+ -4 D+ C- D- D -6 D D- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D+ C- D+ D+ 37% 23% 39% C- D+ C C- C- D- D+ C+ C- D C- C- D- D 38% 20% 42% C D D+ F D- D+ C D C
1.02 54% 36% 32% -3 0 0.95 30% 1.0 .30 20% .28 74% .21 1.17 60% 40% 38% +4 0 1.10 32% 1.2 .40 15% .30 75% .21
Nov
3		 Western Kentucky D- D A+ D+ C- 30% 17% 53% B- C- D+ A+ B+ F F F F C A+ F A+ A 54% 26% 20% C- A- C F F C F F+ F
0.92 50% 56% 32% -1 0 1.00 26% 1.3 .33 25% .21 50% .10 1.08 37% 46% 20% -13 0 0.76 33% 1.4 .46 14% .54 80% .43
Nov
7		 Charlotte D- D+ F B D 51% 21% 28% B D+ C+ A+ A+ F A+ F C+ B C- A- F D- 33% 25% 43% A D+ D+ F F A+ F C+ F+
0.99 55% 25% 36% -3 +1 0.97 32% 1.7 .55 26% .51 48% .25 1.07 62% 30% 47% +8 -1 1.15 37% 1.4 .52 29% .43 70% .30
Nov
17		 West Georgia F A+ C F F 36% 22% 42% F+ F F+ A+ C- F B- A+ A+ B A+ A- F C+ 16% 55% 29% A+ B+ D+ A+ A B+ D+ F F
0.88 75% 40% 5% -12 0 0.78 23% 1.3 .29 22% .37 89% .33 0.91 25% 30% 43% -6 -6 0.78 33% 0.6 .21 19% .30 88% .26
Nov
19		 South Carolina Upstate B- B F A+ B 38% 22% 40% D+ B- B- A A- F A+ A+ A+ D+ D- F A+ D- 53% 11% 37% F F+ B B B F F A- F+
1.14 65% 20% 44% +5 0 1.11 34% 1.3 .45 22% .53 81% .43 1.09 63% 83% 24% +2 +2 1.11 24% 0.8 .19 12% .40 63% .25
Nov
26		 Kentucky F D- D F F 28% 31% 41% D F D- A C- B F F F F D- D+ F F 44% 8% 47% F F C F F C- A+ F A
0.74 47% 32% 20% -14 -2 0.70 19% 1.0 .19 15% .08 40% .03 1.43 69% 40% 50% +17 +2 1.39 36% 1.6 .57 14% .21 85% .18
Nov
29		 Georgia D+ B- F+ F D+ 54% 22% 25% B C- F A+ C- A- B A- B+ F D+ F F F 36% 6% 58% D+ F B C- B- D D A- C-
0.93 57% 29% 19% -8 +1 0.88 21% 1.2 .26 16% .29 76% .22 1.42 65% 75% 51% +20 +2 1.45 33% 1.1 .36 12% .38 69% .26
Dec
3		 Lipscomb C F A+ A+ B 30% 32% 39% D- B- D+ B- C- B- C- C- C- C- C- A- C C- 36% 7% 57% C- C- C- B- C D+ F A D
1.08 41% 50% 45% +5 -2 1.09 28% 1.1 .31 16% .27 71% .19 1.12 60% 25% 34% 0 +2 1.05 26% 1.0 .26 15% .32 70% .22
Dec
6		 West Georgia B+ A+ F A+ A+ 50% 26% 24% D A+ D- F F C- D- A+ C- A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 25% 35% 40% B A+ A- F F B+ F+ B D
1.25 78% 29% 62% +17 0 1.37 24% 0.3 .08 16% .27 81% .22 0.85 33% 35% 21% -15 -3 0.67 24% 1.8 .42 20% .34 68% .23
Dec
18		 Southeast Missouri St. B- C- F A- D 43% 24% 33% D+ D- C B+ B- B+ A+ A A+ C A+ B B A+ 38% 13% 50% D+ A+ F D+ F B F F F
1.18 55% 18% 40% -3 0 0.96 29% 1.3 .39 15% .68 83% .57 1.02 22% 33% 29% -18 +1 0.69 37% 1.3 .49 19% .53 77% .41
Dec
20		 Tennessee Martin D- A+ A+ D+ A 18% 24% 58% D- B+ D- D- D- F F+ A- D F F F F F 27% 22% 51% B F A C+ B+ F A F B-
0.98 88% 55% 31% +7 -2 1.11 27% 0.8 .21 24% .25 75% .19 1.36 71% 55% 46% +17 -1 1.33 29% 0.9 .25 11% .23 85% .19
Dec
30		 Tennessee St. D A+ C- B- A- 42% 20% 38% D B D+ F D- D- F F+ F F D A- F F 25% 37% 39% A+ D- F F F C- A+ F A+
1.08 76% 40% 37% +10 0 1.22 28% 0.9 .24 21% .24 69% .16 1.25 64% 29% 45% +5 -3 1.05 39% 1.6 .64 16% .12 86% .10
Jan
1		 Arkansas Little Rock F F F F F 23% 21% 56% F F A- F+ C F B A+ A D F D- B- F 28% 32% 40% B- F A F C D F C- F
0.86 45% 10% 26% -15 -1 0.69 44% 0.8 .33 24% .33 82% .27 1.14 92% 40% 32% +9 -2 1.15 23% 1.3 .29 16% .39 68% .26
Jan
8		 Eastern Illinois D D- B F D- 33% 18% 49% D+ D- D+ D D F A+ A+ A+ F D A+ D+ D 47% 17% 36% F D- F F F F D- B- D
0.98 54% 43% 26% -6 0 0.90 32% 1.0 .32 24% .44 90% .40 1.14 59% 13% 35% -3 +1 0.98 33% 1.3 .42 13% .33 72% .24
Jan
10		 Western Illinois F D- F F F 55% 18% 27% B- F D+ F F D- D F F B+ C+ B F D- 35% 40% 25% A- D D- A C+ A+ F A+ D-
0.94 56% 22% 23% -9 +1 0.88 30% 0.8 .24 18% .27 50% .14 0.86 50% 31% 40% -3 -3 0.90 31% 0.7 .21 24% .46 55% .25
Jan
15		 Southern Indiana F F A+ F F 47% 16% 37% C+ F D+ F F F+ D- F F F+ B A+ C C+ 55% 8% 37% F C- D D D F C A+ A-
0.79 46% 50% 16% -14 +1 0.76 29% 0.6 .17 19% .27 60% .16 1.04 45% 0% 32% -11 +3 0.85 30% 0.9 .28 4% .29 47% .14
Jan
17		 Morehead St. D D C F F 57% 21% 21% C+ F C- A+ A- B A- D+ B F B- B+ F C- 31% 39% 31% A C+ F F F F C- D- D+
1.10 52% 40% 20% -8 +1 0.89 35% 1.3 .44 13% .40 68% .27 1.20 53% 32% 40% -1 -3 0.94 46% 1.1 .51 11% .32 78% .25
Jan
22		 Lindenwood F F C+ F F 51% 27% 22% D+ F C+ F F+ F+ A+ B- A+ D- F C A+ F 61% 6% 33% F F D- F F A- D+ F F+
0.89 36% 38% 27% -13 0 0.76 35% 0.7 .23 21% .50 73% .36 1.17 71% 33% 24% +2 +4 1.14 37% 1.7 .63 24% .34 80% .27
Jan
24		 SIU Edwardsville D+ C D- F D- 38% 33% 29% D D- C+ D C- A+ D C- D D+ F A+ A+ B 37% 26% 37% D B- F D F F C- F D-
1.00 56% 31% 21% -9 -2 0.81 35% 0.8 .30 10% .29 73% .21 1.07 71% 17% 24% -7 -1 0.87 35% 1.1 .38 14% .30 80% .24
Jan
31		 Arkansas Little Rock B+ B A+ A B+ 44% 7% 49% B B+ A+ F B+ F A+ A+ A+ F+ D F D- F 48% 28% 24% F F A A+ A+ F D+ F D-
1.28 68% 67% 43% +13 +2 1.33 60% 0.7 .43 31% .45 86% .38 1.13 65% 53% 38% +9 0 1.20 23% 0.7 .15 13% .25 80% .20
Feb
2		 Tennessee St. A+ F C+ A+ A+ 35% 15% 50% D A+ D+ D D+ B- A- C A- F+ C- D- B D 41% 29% 30% C- D F D+ F D- C- D D+
1.30 38% 43% 65% +17 0 1.37 29% 1.0 .29 17% .44 76% .33 1.23 61% 44% 29% +1 -1 1.02 48% 1.1 .50 13% .28 76% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Western Illinois A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 35% 14% 51% C- A+ A+ C- A+ B- C B- C+ F C+ D F F 26% 32% 43% B+ F D F F C- C F D-
1.57 61% 57% 58% +22 +1 1.47 50% 1.1 .54 13% .32 76% .24 1.16 50% 40% 45% +6 -2 1.09 29% 1.2 .35 16% .31 81% .25
Feb
7		 Eastern Illinois F D- C+ F F 39% 13% 47% C+ F B D C+ F A+ A A+ C C+ B+ C- C 39% 37% 24% B- C B F C- D- C- F D
0.84 53% 40% 17% -14 +1 0.76 40% 1.0 .40 33% .46 85% .39 0.93 53% 28% 33% -6 -2 0.86 22% 1.3 .28 15% .29 81% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.2 2.3 3.6 1.2 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 1.4 10.4 13.0 4.4 0.2 29.5 8th
9th 7.9 24.0 21.3 5.5 0.2 58.8 9th
10th 2.7 1.1 0.1 3.9 10th
11th 11th
Total 10.5 26.5 32.0 20.8 8.3 1.8 0.1 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.1% 0.0 0.1
10-10 1.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 1.8
9-11 8.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 8.2
8-12 20.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 20.7
7-13 32.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 31.9
6-14 26.5% 26.5
5-15 10.5% 10.5
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 10.5%