Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.8 188
Expected Predictive Rating -1.1 181
Pace 72.8 67
Improvement -2.2 276

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 187 C D+ C+ D B+
Defense C 200 C C C+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 111 C 58% 168 +1.6 118
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% 335 F 28% 361 -4.4 355
Three Pointers 47% 61 C+ 35% 145 +3.4 70
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.2 34 C -0.7 196
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 153
Second Chance D 25.0% 329 C+ 1.07 117 D+ 0.27 275
Turnovers C+ 16.4% 148
Freethrows F+ 0.24 348 B+ 77% 23 D 0.18 318
Total Offense C -0.9 187

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 261 D+ 61% 259 +0.5 149
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 82 C 38% 188 -1.2 278
Three Pointers 41% 190 C 34% 197 +0.0 176
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +1.2 34 C- -0.7 196
1st FG Attempt 1.03 201 C -0.6 199
Second Chance C- 31.4% 217 C 1.01 150 C 0.32 201
Turnovers C+ 17.6% 137
Freethrows C+ 0.29 129 C 72% 162 C+ 0.21 127
Total Defense C -0.8 200

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.4 87 17.3 180
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 84 0.17 187
Improvement +0.8 #139 -3.0 #317

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18% 20% 17%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.4 15.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 99%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 1% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 1%
First Round18% 20% 17%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Queens (Away) - 43.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 33 - 44 - 8
Quad 414 - 418 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 14 @Vanderbilt L 61 - 105 2% -29  0% 0 - 1 F -22 F+ -9 F C F F+ -10 F A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 173 @Mercer L 77 - 92 34% -8  1% 0 - 2 D- -13 C+ +3 C- B- B- F -16 F F F
 Tue, Nov 11 208 @UNC Asheville L 64 - 69 42% -4  9% 0 - 3 C- -5 D- -6 F C C+ C+ +1 D- D- A
 Wed, Nov 19 78 @Belmont L 68 - 75 13% -7  4% 0 - 4 C+ +3 F -12 F B+ F A+ +16 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Nov 22 264 Western Carolina W 83 - 62 75% +12  77% 1 - 4 B+ +12 D -4 C C C+ A+ +15 B+ B A+
 Wed, Nov 26 165 @Marshall W 90 - 67 34% +17  94% 2 - 4 A+ +26 B +6 A+ F D A+ +18 A+ C- A-
 Sat, Nov 29 240 @Southeast Missouri St. W 88 - 77 48% +4  76% 3 - 4 B +10 C+ +2 B F+ D+ B+ +6 A- B+ A-
 Wed, Dec 3 321 Tennessee Tech W 83 - 80 85% +1  52% 4 - 4 D -10 D -4 D+ F C D -6 F+ C D-
 Sun, Dec 7 304 Alabama A&M W 92 - 58 82% +13  95% 5 - 4 A +23 A+ +18 A+ B- A+ B+ +7 A- C+ C+
 Tue, Dec 16 3 @Duke L 73 - 97 1% -5  33% 5 - 5 C+ +3 C +0 B F C+ B+ +6 B+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 45 @Cincinnati L 62 - 89 7% -16  12% 5 - 6 D- -12 D+ -3 C- B- C+ D- -8 C- F F
 Thu, Jan 1 309 Jacksonville W 76 - 57 83% +9  93% 6 - 6 1 - 0 B- +7 A- +10 A- F A+ C+ +1 C D A+
 Sat, Jan 3 343 North Florida W 82 - 74 89% +2  50% 7 - 6 2 - 0 D+ -7 D- -7 F D A- C +0 B- B C
 Thu, Jan 8 331 @Stetson L 83 - 91 72% -11  2% 7 - 7 2 - 1 F+ -16 D -4 C+ F F+ F -11 F A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 245 @Florida Gulf Coast W 84 - 77 49% +1  62% 8 - 7 3 - 1 B- +5 B +6 B C D- C -0 D+ C+ D
 Thu, Jan 15 282 Bellarmine W 81 - 71 78% +14  97% 9 - 7 4 - 1 C +0 C- -1 D+ C+ D- C+ +2 A+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 17 151 Austin Peay W 82 - 78 54% +2  70% 10 - 7 5 - 1 C +1 C +1 B- D- B+ C +0 C+ C- B
 Thu, Jan 22 331 Stetson W 79 - 74 OT 87% +5  81% 11 - 7 6 - 1 D -9 F -14 F+ F B B +5 C A- A-
 Fri, Jan 23 245 Florida Gulf Coast W 86 - 71 71% +5  68% 12 - 7 7 - 1 B- +7 A+ +16 A+ A+ C+ D -7 B F D-
 Thu, Jan 29 309 @Jacksonville L 65 - 70 66% -8  0% 12 - 8 7 - 2 D -11 C- -2 D- B+ A- F+ -10 F D+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 343 @North Florida W 100 - 94 76% -2  38% 13 - 8 8 - 2 C- -3 A- +10 A+ F A- F -14 F F C-
 Wed, Feb 4 151 @Austin Peay L 76 - 87 32% -4  32% 13 - 9 8 - 3 D+ -8 C +1 C C B D- -9 F A+ C-
 Sat, Feb 7 190 Central Arkansas L 78 - 86 62% -9  0% 13 - 10 8 - 4 D- -13 D+ -3 B D+ D+ F+ -10 C- F C
 Wed, Feb 11 268 Eastern Kentucky W 75 - 61 76% +8  77% 14 - 10 9 - 4 B- +5 D+ -3 C F+ D+ A- +9 C+ A B
 Sat, Feb 14 216 @Queens L 82 - 84 44%
 Wed, Feb 18 282 @Bellarmine W 81 - 79 58%
 Sat, Feb 21 344 North Alabama W 81 - 68 90%
 Wed, Feb 25 318 @West Georgia W 80 - 75 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 268 @Eastern Kentucky W 80 - 79 54%
Totals 17 - 12 12 - 6 -2 F -1 F C B+ C -1 C+ B+ D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C F C+ C 41% 12% 47% B+ C D C+ D+ C+ F+ B+ D C D+ C C C- 36% 24% 41% B- C C- C C C+ C+ C C+
1.07 58% 28% 35% -1 +1 1.03 25% 1.1 .27 16% .24 77% .18 1.10 61% 38% 34% +1 -1 1.03 31% 1.0 .32 18% .29 72% .17
Nov
3		 Vanderbilt F+ F F F F 34% 18% 48% B F D+ B+ C F B A+ A+ F+ F A+ F F 35% 20% 45% B- F A A+ A+ F A A A+
0.82 41% 11% 25% -17 0 0.68 24% 1.1 .26 24% .39 95% .37 1.40 76% 25% 63% +23 0 1.48 24% 0.5 .12 8% .25 71% .17
Nov
9		 Mercer C+ C F C+ D+ 42% 9% 49% B+ C- C+ B+ B- B- F A+ F F F A+ F F 43% 22% 34% D+ F D+ F F F A+ A- A+
1.12 57% 20% 37% 0 +2 1.05 33% 1.1 .36 16% .12 86% .10 1.34 76% 23% 45% +10 0 1.22 37% 1.4 .50 12% .21 69% .15
Nov
11		 UNC Asheville D- D+ A F F 42% 12% 46% B- F A- F+ C C+ D B+ C- C+ D F D F+ 26% 37% 37% C+ D- C- F D- A F A- F
0.99 55% 50% 21% -9 +1 0.87 39% 0.8 .29 15% .27 73% .20 1.07 64% 50% 38% +8 -3 1.12 31% 1.2 .38 23% .48 63% .30
Nov
19		 Belmont F F B F F 27% 8% 64% B F B- B+ B+ F F A+ F+ A+ C+ B A A+ 33% 7% 60% C A+ D+ B- C- A+ F D F
0.87 31% 40% 24% -17 +1 0.69 36% 1.2 .42 24% .17 90% .15 0.96 60% 33% 30% -3 +1 0.98 31% 1.2 .37 28% .52 72% .38
Nov
22		 Western Carolina D B F B C- 35% 10% 55% B C D+ A- C C+ F F F A+ F F A+ B+ 25% 22% 53% A- B+ A+ F B A+ C+ A B
1.11 64% 17% 38% +3 +1 1.11 25% 1.2 .30 15% .09 50% .05 0.83 77% 55% 15% -7 -1 0.86 15% 1.8 .26 24% .27 60% .16
Nov
26		 Marshall B A- D+ A+ A+ 37% 17% 46% B A+ F D F D A- D- B- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 35% 22% 43% D A+ B- F+ C- A- F D F
1.16 68% 33% 50% +14 0 1.31 18% 0.8 .15 19% .41 65% .27 0.86 53% 25% 17% -15 0 0.70 29% 1.3 .37 22% .36 77% .28
Nov
29		 Southeast Missouri St. C+ B- F+ A B 43% 11% 45% B- B F B+ F+ D+ C C- C B+ B- D A+ A- 43% 26% 30% B A- D A+ B+ A- F F F
1.10 61% 33% 42% +6 +2 1.17 18% 1.3 .24 20% .40 73% .30 0.96 52% 43% 19% -8 0 0.85 32% 0.8 .26 21% .47 77% .36
Dec
3		 Tennessee Tech D C F C- D 36% 7% 57% B+ D+ D- F F C C+ D- C D A+ F F F 30% 32% 39% A F+ B- D C D- C B C+
1.12 60% 25% 34% 0 +2 1.05 26% 1.0 .26 15% .32 70% .22 1.08 41% 50% 45% +5 -2 1.09 28% 1.1 .31 16% .27 71% .19
Dec
7		 Alabama A&M A+ A A+ B A 53% 5% 42% A A+ F A+ B- A+ F F F B+ A A B- A- 40% 32% 28% B- A- F A+ C+ C+ D- C+ D
1.40 73% 67% 38% +12 +3 1.32 21% 1.7 .36 6% .21 62% .13 0.88 42% 27% 31% -11 -1 0.77 33% 0.7 .23 18% .39 71% .28
Dec
16		 Duke C C- F C+ C+ 50% 14% 36% A+ B F F F C+ A A+ A+ B+ C F A- A- 50% 6% 44% D+ B+ F D+ F A+ C- D- D+
0.89 52% 25% 33% -5 +2 0.95 8% 0.0 .00 19% .30 90% .27 1.18 63% 67% 29% +1 +3 1.09 53% 1.3 .68 27% .36 77% .28
Dec
29		 Cincinnati D+ D A F+ D 38% 4% 58% A+ C- D- A+ B- C+ D F F+ D- C- A+ D C 40% 15% 45% D- C- D F F F A+ C+ A+
0.86 47% 50% 28% -9 +2 0.88 16% 1.8 .30 19% .22 54% .12 1.23 63% 22% 37% +2 +1 1.07 36% 1.4 .49 11% .14 67% .09
Jan
1		 Jacksonville A- A+ F A+ A 40% 16% 44% C+ A- F+ F F A+ F A+ F C+ D- A- B- C- 27% 24% 49% A- C F B D A+ C B C+
1.29 75% 25% 45% +12 +1 1.28 21% 0.7 .14 7% .20 91% .18 0.97 64% 30% 30% -3 -1 0.93 38% 0.9 .34 25% .27 67% .18
Jan
3		 North Florida D- F F C F 26% 18% 56% D- F C- D- D A- B+ C- B C A+ D+ D+ B- 23% 12% 65% B- B- D- A+ B C A+ F A+
1.16 47% 20% 34% -6 0 0.89 35% 1.1 .37 8% .34 68% .23 1.05 43% 43% 36% -1 0 1.00 30% 0.8 .23 18% .07 100% .07
Jan
8		 Stetson D C+ A+ D- C 50% 12% 38% A- C+ F A F F+ A+ C- A F F F D F 34% 13% 53% D- F A+ A+ A+ F+ F F F
1.08 65% 67% 30% +5 +2 1.15 17% 1.4 .23 18% .38 71% .27 1.19 78% 57% 36% +11 +1 1.25 13% 0.5 .06 14% .44 79% .35
Jan
10		 Florida Gulf Coast B F+ F A+ B- 39% 12% 49% B- B D- A+ C D- C A+ B C C- F A- D 35% 38% 27% A- D+ B D C+ D D A C
1.17 50% 17% 48% +5 +1 1.14 25% 1.3 .32 20% .37 86% .31 1.08 61% 55% 29% +5 -3 1.08 26% 1.1 .29 15% .31 63% .20
Jan
15		 Bellarmine C- C+ A C- D 39% 9% 52% A- D+ A- F+ C+ D- A+ F B C+ A+ F A+ A+ 32% 21% 47% A A+ F A D- F F A+ F
1.22 65% 50% 35% +4 +1 1.14 43% 1.0 .43 18% .42 61% .26 1.07 41% 55% 20% -12 0 0.77 32% 0.9 .27 9% .50 67% .33
Jan
17		 Austin Peay C B- A D- C 62% 7% 31% A+ B- D F D- B+ D- A+ B C B+ D+ D+ C- 33% 33% 34% A+ C+ C+ D- C- B B- D+ C+
1.10 65% 50% 29% +3 +3 1.15 26% 0.5 .13 16% .24 100% .24 1.04 47% 42% 35% -2 -2 0.95 26% 1.3 .34 19% .26 75% .20
Jan
22		 Stetson F C- F D F 41% 19% 41% C F+ F F F B C- A- C+ B C B+ C C 36% 28% 36% B- C D A+ A- A- B+ F C
0.98 62% 25% 31% -3 0 0.97 18% 0.5 .09 12% .27 79% .21 0.92 57% 31% 33% -2 -1 0.95 29% 0.5 .16 22% .24 87% .21
Jan
23		 Florida Gulf Coast A+ D+ F A+ A+ 19% 15% 66% D A+ B+ A+ A+ C+ D- A+ C- D F A+ D+ B 17% 28% 54% A- B C F F D- F A D-
1.36 56% 0% 55% +15 -1 1.30 37% 1.3 .48 16% .30 88% .26 1.13 75% 15% 36% -2 -3 0.93 31% 1.6 .50 14% .37 65% .24
Jan
29		 Jacksonville C- C- B- F F 58% 10% 32% A D- F A+ B+ A- F C F F+ F+ C- D F 43% 21% 36% C- F C D D+ F C F D+
1.08 59% 40% 25% -4 +3 1.00 19% 2.0 .38 12% .19 70% .13 1.16 65% 40% 35% +4 0 1.11 29% 1.1 .32 12% .28 80% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 North Florida A- B+ F A+ A 59% 5% 36% A+ A+ F A+ F A- F A- D- F D+ A+ F F 33% 5% 62% D- F F C- F C- D+ F F
1.37 69% 33% 45% +13 +4 1.34 18% 1.6 .29 8% .19 77% .15 1.29 61% 0% 44% +8 +2 1.22 37% 1.2 .43 18% .27 94% .25
Feb
4		 Austin Peay C A F F C- 51% 9% 40% A C F+ A+ C B F A+ D- D- F B- F F 36% 36% 27% A+ F A+ A- A+ C- B A- B+
1.06 71% 20% 27% +1 +2 1.09 22% 1.0 .22 17% .17 90% .15 1.21 85% 35% 60% +19 -2 1.36 8% 1.0 .08 15% .25 67% .16
Feb
7		 Central Arkansas D+ A- D A B+ 22% 13% 65% D+ B C D- D+ D+ A D A- F+ F C+ B- D- 25% 40% 36% A+ C- F C- F C F+ D F+
1.07 70% 33% 40% +8 0 1.17 29% 1.0 .29 21% .38 68% .26 1.18 92% 33% 32% +5 -3 1.06 36% 1.1 .38 17% .35 71% .25
Feb
11		 Eastern Kentucky D+ C- B+ B- D+ 33% 8% 59% B+ C C+ F F+ D+ F A+ D+ A- A- F B- C+ 33% 24% 43% D+ C+ C- A+ A B A- A+ A+
1.15 59% 50% 37% +4 +1 1.12 34% 0.7 .23 17% .24 92% .22 0.93 47% 50% 32% -2 -1 0.96 34% 0.7 .24 20% .19 50% .10



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 8.4 6.0 15.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 5.1 22.9 19.6 2.8 50.7 3rd
4th 0.3 5.5 15.8 10.4 0.6 32.6 4th
5th 0.2 0.2 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.6 6.0 20.9 34.5 28.7 9.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 5.7% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.3
13-5 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 9.3% 25.0% 25.0% 13.7 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.2 7.0
13-5 28.7% 21.4% 21.4% 14.5 0.2 2.8 2.9 0.2 22.6
12-6 34.5% 17.6% 17.6% 14.9 0.0 1.4 3.6 1.0 28.4
11-7 20.9% 14.7% 14.7% 15.3 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.2 17.8
10-8 6.0% 12.5% 12.5% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 5.2
9-9 0.6% 12.6% 12.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.5
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 14.7 81.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 100.0% 13.7 2.8 34.7 54.2 8.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.7%
Lose Out 0.2%