Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -0.8 171
Results Rating -0.5 164
Consistency 0.17 263
Pace 69.3 155
Improvement +5.0 32

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 162 C C- C+ D C+
Defense C 203 D C B B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 296 C+ 60% 106 -1.4 234
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 286 D- 32% 342 -3.0 314
Three Pointers 50% 27 C 34% 182 +4.4 45
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 131 C -0.2 171
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 163
Second Chance D+ 27.2% 267 C+ 1.06 127 C- 0.29 235
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.9% 124
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 174
Turnovers C+ 16.1% 138
Freethrows D 0.27 290 D+ 70% 256 D 0.19 302
Total Offense C +0.0 162

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 175 C 10.7% 163
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 156 C- 5.9% 251
Three Pointers C+ 86% 133 C 1.0% 220
Total B- 61% 71 C+ 5.1% 129


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 312 D 63% 307 -1.4 123
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 361 C+ 37% 124 -3.2 4
Three Pointers 54% 2 D+ 36% 268 +8.1 363
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.7 289 D+ +2.7 288
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 293
Second Chance B- 27.9% 88 D 1.13 313 C 0.32 211
Turnovers from Steals B+ 12.1% 27
Other Turnovers C- 7.1% 206
Turnovers B 19.2% 46
Freethrows B- 0.27 93 C- 73% 232 B- 0.20 106
Total Defense C -0.8 203

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 55% 308 D 7.4% 319
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 33% 309 C+ 6.1% 96
Three Pointers D 89% 331 D 0.2% 335
Total F 67% 356 D- 3.3% 339

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 181 16.9 116
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 126 0.20 293
Consistency 0.15 350 0.11 103
Improvement +5.4 5 -0.4 206

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 184 173 156
Results Rating Rank 182 170 138
Conference Record 15 - 3 15 - 3 15 - 3
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27% 34% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.5 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round27% 34% 0%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 33 - 24 - 6
Quad 416 - 520 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 26 @North Carolina L 54 - 94 5% -24  0% 0 - 1 F -22 F -17 F B F C -1 C- F B+
 Tue, Nov 11 18 @Arkansas L 56 - 93 3% -16  0% 0 - 2 F+ -16 F -16 F C- A+ B- +2 C- A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 16 191 Samford L 77 - 84 OT 66% +3  62% 0 - 3 D- -12 D- -8 D+ D- D+ D+ -4 D B+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 134 @North Texas L 56 - 74 30% -5  17% 0 - 4 D- -13 F -12 D F F C- -2 B B D
 Sun, Nov 23 174 Eastern Washington W 92 - 65 62% +20  98% 1 - 4 A +23 A- +9 A+ F C A+ +13 A- C A+
 Tue, Nov 25 326 Eastern Illinois W 81 - 60 88% +16  96% 2 - 4 B- +7 A- +11 A A+ C C -1 D C- C+
 Sat, Nov 29 141 @East Tennessee St. L 57 - 80 32% -10  7% 2 - 5 F -19 F -18 F D+ C+ C -0 F A+ D
 Wed, Dec 3 299 Arkansas Little Rock W 85 - 47 83% +29  96% 3 - 5 A+ +27 C+ +2 B+ D- D+ A+ +24 A+ B+ A+
 Sun, Dec 7 307 @East Texas A&M L 68 - 75 68% -1  30% 3 - 6 D- -13 F -12 C- F C+ C -0 B+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 17 @Vanderbilt L 72 - 83 3% -15  0% 3 - 7 B +10 C +0 C- C+ A- A +10 A+ F A
 Sun, Dec 21 39 @SMU L 82 - 99 6% -11  0% 3 - 8 C -1 A- +10 A A- D- F -11 D- F B
 Thu, Jan 1 269 Florida Gulf Coast W 85 - 83 78% -3  21% 4 - 8 1 - 0 D+ -7 A +13 B A A+ F -19 F D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 320 Stetson W 93 - 73 87% +13  88% 5 - 8 2 - 0 B- +7 A +13 B+ A D+ D+ -5 F D+ B+
 Thu, Jan 8 285 @Bellarmine L 78 - 84 OT 62% +0  43% 5 - 9 2 - 1 D -10 F -11 F C- B+ C+ +2 D C- C
 Sat, Jan 10 288 @Eastern Kentucky L 75 - 79 OT 63% -1  35% 5 - 10 2 - 2 D -8 D- -7 C+ F D- C -1 F C+ C+
 Thu, Jan 15 293 Jacksonville W 62 - 60 83% -5  19% 6 - 10 3 - 2 D -9 D- -7 C- F D C- -2 A+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 17 339 North Florida W 98 - 69 91% +23  95% 7 - 10 4 - 2 B+ +14 A- +10 A- C B B- +3 C- A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 22 308 @West Georgia W 86 - 65 68% +9  68% 8 - 10 5 - 2 A- +15 A- +11 A+ F B+ B +5 D F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 202 @Queens W 100 - 90 44% -1  35% 9 - 10 6 - 2 B +11 A +14 A C- B+ D+ -4 F A C-
 Sat, Jan 31 288 Eastern Kentucky W 90 - 81 81% +8  98% 10 - 10 7 - 2 C -1 C- -1 C D A+ C -1 F+ A+ B
 Wed, Feb 4 342 North Alabama W 81 - 60 91% +7  81% 11 - 10 8 - 2 B- +6 C+ +2 B D+ C B +4 C+ B+ B-
 Sat, Feb 7 195 @Lipscomb W 86 - 78 44% +9  98% 12 - 10 9 - 2 B +9 B+ +8 C B+ C+ C +0 F+ D+ A-
 Mon, Feb 9 342 @North Alabama W 72 - 65 79% -5  10% 13 - 10 10 - 2 C- -2 D -5 F+ C+ F B- +3 F C- A+
 Wed, Feb 11 285 Bellarmine W 84 - 76 81% -2  36% 14 - 10 11 - 2 C- -2 C +2 D+ D+ A+ C- -3 F C+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 308 West Georgia W 79 - 62 85% +9  97% 15 - 10 12 - 2 B- +5 C- -1 D+ C- B- B+ +6 D+ B A-
 Thu, Feb 19 320 @Stetson W 88 - 76 72% +15  95% 16 - 10 13 - 2 B- +5 A +13 A- C C- D- -7 F F A
 Sat, Feb 21 269 @Florida Gulf Coast L 71 - 75 OT 59% +1  53% 16 - 11 13 - 3 D+ -7 D- -8 F B- C+ C+ +1 B+ D- F
 Wed, Feb 25 177 @Austin Peay W 93 - 88 40% -5  13% 17 - 11 14 - 3 B- +7 A+ +22 A+ A A F -15 F C A+
 Sat, Feb 28 202 Queens W 84 - 79 67% +8  98% 18 - 11 15 - 3 C -0 C- -0 D D+ C+ C +0 C- A+ C
Totals 18 - 11 15 - 3 -1 C +0 A C C+ C -1 C D+ D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ D- C C 35% 28% 50% C+ C D+ C+ C- C+ D D+ D C D C+ D+ D+ 33% 13% 54% D+ D B- D C B B- C- B-
1.09 60% 32% 34% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.1 .29 16% .27 70% .19 1.10 63% 37% 36% +3 +1 1.09 28% 1.1 .32 19% .27 73% .20
Nov
3		 North Carolina F F F D F 24% 29% 47% D+ F C- A+ B F D D D C F A+ B- C 48% 12% 40% F+ C- D F F B+ C F D-
0.72 38% 13% 31% -14 -2 0.69 23% 1.2 .28 23% .15 67% .10 1.25 80% 0% 33% +6 +2 1.17 38% 1.5 .56 16% .35 82% .28
Nov
11		 Arkansas F C+ F+ F F 21% 12% 67% C F F+ A+ C- A+ A- D+ B B- F B D D+ 29% 16% 55% B- C- A+ C+ A+ C- C- F+ D
0.75 58% 29% 8% -27 0 0.47 20% 1.6 .31 11% .32 67% .21 1.25 81% 33% 39% +10 0 1.21 24% 1.3 .30 11% .33 82% .27
Nov
16		 Samford D- B+ F C- D- 45% 24% 31% B+ D+ B- F D- D+ A- F C- D+ F A+ C- D 22% 14% 64% C D B- A B+ F A D A-
1.02 65% 14% 33% -3 0 0.97 30% 0.7 .21 15% .36 57% .20 1.12 85% 13% 34% +3 0 1.07 21% 0.9 .19 9% .26 72% .19
Nov
20		 North Texas F D- F C D- 37% 16% 47% B- D C+ F F F A+ F A+ C- F A+ A+ B- 43% 25% 32% B+ B B- B B D F F F
0.82 50% 17% 33% -7 +1 0.89 33% 0.5 .15 28% .64 56% .36 1.08 74% 18% 14% -8 0 0.86 31% 0.9 .29 15% .55 84% .46
Nov
23		 Eastern Washington A- B F A+ A+ 43% 4% 53% A- A+ D+ F F C F F F A+ A A+ C+ A 27% 10% 63% D+ A- D- B+ C A+ B B+ B+
1.28 65% 0% 54% +17 +3 1.42 30% 0.8 .24 17% .23 64% .15 0.90 46% 20% 33% -6 +1 0.92 36% 1.0 .36 31% .26 69% .18
Nov
25		 Eastern Illinois A- A+ F B+ A 36% 6% 57% B- A C A+ A+ C F+ F F C F C+ A+ D 33% 25% 42% D+ D A+ F C- C+ B F C-
1.28 82% 0% 37% +9 +2 1.23 35% 1.8 .62 19% .25 62% .16 0.95 69% 33% 25% -3 -1 0.94 17% 1.6 .28 19% .23 92% .21
Nov
29		 East Tennessee St. F F F F+ F 17% 13% 70% D F F A+ D+ C+ F C+ F C F C F F 35% 9% 56% D F A+ B+ A+ D B+ A+ A+
0.79 44% 14% 29% -11 -1 0.80 13% 1.8 .24 18% .14 75% .10 1.12 74% 40% 40% +11 +1 1.26 13% 1.0 .13 14% .26 50% .13
Dec
3		 Arkansas Little Rock C+ A- B B 33% 0% 67% B+ B+ C F D- D+ D C D A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 37% 24% 39% F+ A+ B B B+ A+ B+ A+ A+
1.19 72% 39% +10 +2 1.26 36% 0.7 .25 20% .24 71% .17 0.66 44% 17% 26% -15 -1 0.71 26% 0.9 .24 29% .18 22% .04
Dec
7		 East Texas A&M F B F F D- 61% 4% 35% A+ C- F D- F C+ F F F C D- A+ A+ A- 29% 10% 60% D+ B+ B+ F F C+ F F F
0.91 63% 0% 25% -3 +4 1.04 11% 1.0 .11 16% .24 33% .08 1.01 64% 20% 24% -9 +1 0.85 19% 2.1 .42 19% .41 76% .31
Dec
13		 Vanderbilt C B- F D C- 22% 22% 56% C- C- D+ A+ C+ A- A D B+ A B+ F A+ A+ 31% 6% 63% D- A+ C F F A D+ D D
0.96 58% 25% 30% -6 -1 0.87 23% 1.2 .28 16% .43 70% .30 1.10 56% 67% 24% -8 +1 0.88 33% 1.6 .54 17% .35 82% .29
Dec
21		 SMU A- D- C A+ A 31% 27% 42% C- A B A A- D- B C- B- F F F B+ D 36% 12% 53% F D- F F F B A+ F+ A+
1.16 50% 36% 50% +7 -1 1.13 34% 1.2 .40 21% .31 71% .22 1.41 86% 71% 32% +12 +1 1.29 55% 1.3 .72 17% .17 80% .14
Jan
1		 Florida Gulf Coast A B+ F A+ B+ 37% 20% 43% C- B B- A+ A A+ C A- C+ F F C+ F F 27% 16% 57% D- F A+ F D+ D+ B F C-
1.33 67% 30% 43% +7 0 1.16 34% 1.4 .47 11% .35 80% .28 1.29 79% 38% 45% +15 0 1.31 19% 1.8 .35 16% .22 92% .20
Jan
3		 Stetson A A+ F B+ B+ 40% 8% 52% B+ B+ A B- A D+ A+ B+ A+ D+ D F F+ F 24% 13% 62% D+ F D- C+ D+ B+ F B- F
1.37 80% 0% 38% +9 +2 1.24 42% 1.2 .52 16% .40 78% .32 1.07 64% 50% 39% +8 0 1.18 30% 1.0 .30 22% .40 67% .26
Jan
8		 Bellarmine F F F F F 25% 14% 61% C F D+ C+ C- B+ F A D C+ F D+ D+ D- 34% 9% 57% C+ D B+ F C- C A- A A
1.05 47% 25% 28% -10 0 0.81 32% 1.2 .38 12% .25 81% .20 1.13 74% 40% 38% +8 +1 1.21 16% 1.6 .26 16% .23 71% .16
Jan
10		 Eastern Kentucky D- D A+ B- C 34% 15% 51% B- C+ C- F F D- F C F+ C D A+ F F 15% 11% 75% D F B D- C+ C+ A+ A+ A+
1.06 56% 75% 37% +7 0 1.17 32% 0.3 .11 18% .26 73% .19 1.12 63% 17% 41% +7 0 1.15 28% 1.2 .33 18% .12 57% .07
Jan
15		 Jacksonville D- B- A+ D- C 43% 25% 33% D C- C+ F F D B+ B- B+ C- A+ F A+ A+ 34% 13% 53% D A+ F B- D- F D D- D-
1.05 65% 50% 31% +4 0 1.10 31% 0.5 .16 17% .43 71% .31 1.02 31% 50% 24% -16 +1 0.72 39% 1.0 .39 10% .32 76% .25
Jan
17		 North Florida A- B+ A+ A- A- 33% 11% 56% C A- C+ D+ C B C A B- B- B+ F C- D+ 24% 14% 63% B C- A- A+ A+ B- F A+ D+
1.39 67% 67% 39% +10 +1 1.24 39% 1.1 .45 10% .28 78% .22 0.98 50% 57% 34% +1 0 1.04 19% 0.6 .11 20% .32 67% .21
Jan
22		 West Georgia A- B+ B- A+ A+ 44% 13% 43% C A+ F A+ F B+ F C F B C+ F A- D+ 40% 19% 42% F D F F F A+ F B F
1.28 67% 43% 52% +16 +1 1.37 11% 1.3 .15 12% .19 73% .13 0.96 53% 63% 28% -1 0 1.00 38% 1.5 .58 33% .40 67% .26
Jan
28		 Queens A A+ A A A+ 29% 20% 51% D A F A+ C- B+ A+ A A+ D+ F F F F 23% 9% 68% C+ F A+ D A C- C- B C
1.35 80% 50% 42% +15 -1 1.31 22% 1.5 .33 12% .52 82% .43 1.22 75% 60% 44% +17 0 1.36 17% 1.2 .20 15% .33 71% .24
Jan
31		 Eastern Kentucky C- C- A+ C+ C 37% 15% 47% B- C F A D A+ B F F+ C B A+ F D 31% 4% 65% F F+ A A+ A+ B F C- F
1.19 59% 67% 36% +6 +1 1.15 21% 1.2 .26 8% .37 50% .19 1.07 50% 0% 41% +3 +2 1.12 24% 0.8 .19 20% .43 73% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 North Alabama C+ B+ F A B 39% 7% 54% B- B D B- D+ C F B- F B A C+ C+ C+ 43% 12% 45% D C+ A+ D B+ B- C+ A+ A
1.22 67% 0% 41% +6 +2 1.19 29% 1.2 .35 15% .16 78% .12 0.90 43% 33% 32% -9 +1 0.88 22% 1.1 .24 20% .30 50% .15
Feb
7		 Lipscomb B+ A+ D D+ B 25% 40% 36% F C B B B+ C+ A- C+ A- C F C+ F F 22% 13% 65% A- F+ D C D+ A- F A F
1.18 92% 33% 32% +5 -3 1.06 36% 1.1 .38 17% .35 71% .25 1.07 70% 33% 40% +8 0 1.17 29% 1.0 .29 21% .38 68% .26
Feb
9		 North Alabama D D+ A+ F F 39% 9% 52% C+ F+ D- A+ C+ F A+ C- A+ B- C F B- F+ 58% 8% 34% F F C+ D C- A+ F F+ F
1.07 56% 75% 25% -5 +2 0.96 28% 1.4 .41 19% .42 74% .31 0.96 55% 67% 31% -1 +3 1.05 30% 1.1 .33 28% .47 74% .35
Feb
11		 Bellarmine C D C+ B+ D- 41% 10% 49% A- D+ D C+ D+ A+ A F+ B- C- D+ F F F 30% 9% 61% B- F B- D C+ A+ A+ F A+
1.28 57% 40% 40% +4 +2 1.14 30% 1.2 .36 8% .40 67% .26 1.16 64% 50% 50% +18 +1 1.39 18% 1.3 .23 24% .16 88% .14
Feb
14		 West Georgia C- D F B+ D 50% 10% 40% B D+ B- D- C- B- D- A+ C- B+ B D C- C- 41% 29% 31% D- D+ B+ C+ B A- C A+ A-
1.15 54% 20% 38% -1 +2 1.04 34% 0.8 .29 13% .28 82% .23 0.90 50% 43% 33% -2 -1 0.96 25% 1.0 .25 20% .26 50% .13
Feb
19		 Stetson A A A+ B+ A- 31% 15% 54% C A- B+ F C C- A C+ A D- F A+ F F 20% 22% 59% B+ F B+ F F A A+ F A-
1.33 73% 57% 38% +11 0 1.25 40% 0.9 .37 15% .36 75% .27 1.15 78% 20% 52% +16 -1 1.30 21% 1.8 .38 24% .16 88% .14
Feb
21		 Florida Gulf Coast D- F+ F F+ F 34% 15% 51% C F D A+ B- C+ D- B D C+ D+ A A+ A 40% 17% 43% F B+ B F D- F B+ A+ A+
0.99 50% 25% 30% -8 0 0.87 26% 1.5 .38 15% .30 78% .23 1.04 63% 30% 23% -7 +1 0.90 26% 1.5 .38 11% .20 54% .11
Feb
25		 Austin Peay A+ A A+ A+ A+ 41% 4% 55% A A+ F A+ A A C A+ B F D- A+ F F 50% 2% 48% F F F A+ C A+ F F F
1.37 71% 50% 43% +13 +2 1.33 20% 2.0 .40 13% .31 83% .26 1.30 64% 0% 57% +18 +3 1.45 36% 0.9 .32 22% .40 86% .34
Feb
28		 Queens C- A F F D- 48% 12% 40% B+ D C- D+ D+ C+ A A+ A+ C F F B+ C- 29% 8% 63% D+ C- A A+ A+ C C+ F D-
1.18 71% 17% 25% -2 +2 1.02 31% 1.0 .31 14% .43 88% .38 1.11 73% 75% 30% +4 +1 1.12 22% 0.6 .13 16% .30 94% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 26.7% 26.7% 14.5 0.0 1.2 11.8 12.7 1.0 73.3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.7% 26.7% 0.0% 14.5 73.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 26.7% 100.0% 14.5 0.1 4.5 44.3 47.5 3.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 20.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 31.0%
Lose Out 21.8%