Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.6 #292
Expected Predictive Rating -8.4 #304
Pace 62.2 #345
Improvement +2.1 #89

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #305 D+ D+ C D- C
Defense #254 F B+ D+ D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #153 1.08 #277 -1.2 #228
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #200 0.70 #255 -1.0 #229
Three Pointers 42% #170 0.95 #263 -1.1 #216
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #272 -3.2 #271
Freethrows 15.1 #308 70% #242 10.6 #310
Second Chance 28.1% #253 1.02 #214 0.29 #247
Turnovers 16.8% #207
Total Offense -5.1 #305

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #83 1.31 #331 -5.3 #338
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #166 0.75 #165 -0.1 #186
Three Pointers 37% #286 1.19 #355 -1.2 #233
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #347 -6.5 #347
Freethrows 19.8 #293 72% #177 14.3 #289
Second Chance 28.0% #92 0.92 #41 0.26 #44
Turnovers 15.1% #262
Total Defense -2.5 #254

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #159 0.5% #208
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.8% #289 12.2% #353
Possession Length 19.5 #348 17.4 #190
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #319 0.15 #101
Improvement +1.1 #123 +1.0 #115

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 2.9% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1.8% 3.0% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 24.6% 35.6% 12.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.7% 3.7% 12.0%
First Four1.9% 2.1% 1.6%
First Round1.3% 1.8% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Home) - 51.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 410 - 811 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 40 @Miami (FL) L 69 - 86 3% -9  0 - 1 -2 +1 B D- C -2 C F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 98 @High Point L 64 - 85 8% -11  0 - 2 -13 -7 F D C- -6 A- A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 349 @VMI W 69 - 67 57% +3  1 - 2 -7 -6 C A F -2 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 86 @George Mason L 57 - 79 6% -12  1 - 3 -12 -8 D C F -6 F A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 269 Bethune-Cookman W 69 - 64 44% -2  2 - 3 -1 -1 C D- B- +0 C+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 132 Pacific L 53 - 68 19% -7  2 - 4 -13 -12 F F B -4 B- B- F
 Tue, Dec 2 313 Florida A&M W 85 - 82 OT 67% -0  3 - 4 -9 +3 D+ C A+ -12 F A- B
 Sat, Dec 6 192 @Florida International L 65 - 88 21% -18  3 - 5 -22 -6 F C F -17 F A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 14 34 @Texas A&M L 75 - 112 2% -24  3 - 6 -20 +4 B D+ F -21 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 313 @Florida A&M L 65 - 72 45% -9  3 - 7 -13 -5 C F D -9 F A+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 111 @Florida St. L 63 - 87 10% -18  3 - 8 -17 -2 D- F A+ -17 F C D-
 Thu, Jan 1 174 @Lipscomb L 57 - 76 19% -9  3 - 9 0 - 1 -17 -3 D+ C+ F -18 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 171 @Austin Peay L 68 - 71 18% -2  3 - 10 0 - 2 -1 -1 B B+ F -0 B- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 177 Queens L 51 - 77 37% -15  3 - 11 0 - 3 -30 -25 F C F -7 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 338 West Georgia W 75 - 43 74% +20  4 - 11 1 - 3 +18 +8 A+ F A+ +16 A- A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 236 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 62 27% +5  4 - 12 1 - 4 -3 -2 F C A+ -2 D- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 328 @North Alabama W 90 - 68 49% +13  5 - 12 2 - 4 +15 +16 B A+ C- -0 C B D-
 Thu, Jan 22 300 Bellarmine L 70 - 77 63% -1  5 - 13 2 - 5 -18 -5 F D+ B -14 F D C+
 Sat, Jan 24 254 Eastern Kentucky W 72 - 71 51%
 Thu, Jan 29 174 Lipscomb L 69 - 72 37%
 Sat, Jan 31 225 Florida Gulf Coast L 71 - 72 47%
 Thu, Feb 5 177 @Queens L 70 - 79 19%
 Sat, Feb 7 338 @West Georgia W 71 - 70 53%
 Thu, Feb 12 332 @Stetson W 70 - 69 50%
 Sat, Feb 14 350 North Florida W 81 - 73 77%
 Thu, Feb 19 225 @Florida Gulf Coast L 68 - 75 26%
 Sat, Feb 21 171 Austin Peay L 66 - 70 37%
 Thu, Feb 26 332 Stetson W 73 - 67 72%
 Sat, Feb 28 350 @North Florida W 78 - 76 56%
Totals 10 - 19 7 - 11 -8 -5 D+ D+ C -3 F B+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 2.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 5.7 3.7 0.6 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 7.7 5.9 0.9 0.0 15.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 7.1 7.8 1.4 0.0 16.9 7th
8th 0.2 3.9 8.7 2.2 0.0 15.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.9 7.8 3.8 0.2 13.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 4.8 4.6 0.4 0.0 10.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.5 0.7 0.0 6.9 11th
12th 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.0 12th
Total 0.2 1.3 4.4 10.9 17.6 21.4 19.7 13.9 7.2 2.6 0.8 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 5.3% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.8% 13.4% 13.4% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
11-7 2.6% 8.0% 8.0% 15.7 0.1 0.1 2.4
10-8 7.2% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4 6.8
9-9 13.9% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6 13.3
8-10 19.7% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.4 19.2
7-11 21.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 21.1
6-12 17.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 17.4
5-13 10.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.8
4-14 4.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.4
3-15 1.3% 1.3
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 15.9 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%