Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#275
Expected Predictive Rating-0.9#187
Pace65.8#280
Improvement-0.7#240

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#302
First Shot-3.6#281
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#244
Layup/Dunks+3.2#77
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#275
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#223
Freethrows-3.7#341
Improvement+0.4#145

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#214
First Shot-2.7#265
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#105
Layups/Dunks-3.3#299
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#99
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#171
Freethrows-1.0#246
Improvement-1.1#287
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 6.0% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.5
.500 or above 26.1% 41.4% 20.4%
.500 or above in Conference 47.0% 55.9% 43.7%
Conference Champion 4.2% 6.0% 3.5%
Last Place in Conference 7.6% 4.6% 8.7%
First Four1.4% 1.5% 1.4%
First Round3.7% 5.4% 3.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Away) - 27.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 12
Quad 411 - 613 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 34 @Miami (FL) L 69-86 3%     0 - 1 -0.9 +1.8 -1.9
  Tue, Nov 11 93 @High Point L 64-85 9%     0 - 2 -12.7 -7.1 -5.9
  Sat, Nov 15 337 @VMI W 69-67 57%     1 - 2 -6.0 -4.7 -1.3
  Tue, Nov 18 66 @George Mason L 57-79 6%     1 - 3 -10.4 -6.7 -5.3
  Mon, Nov 24 218 Bethune-Cookman W 69-64 40%     2 - 3 +1.5 -0.3 +2.2
  Tue, Nov 25 139 Pacific L 53-68 23%     2 - 4 -13.5 -10.7 -5.0
  Tue, Dec 2 345 Florida A&M W 85-82 OT 78%     3 - 4 -11.4 +1.4 -12.9
  Sat, Dec 6 207 @Florida International L 69-75 27%    
  Sun, Dec 14 38 @Texas A&M L 63-84 2%    
  Wed, Dec 17 345 @Florida A&M W 71-69 58%    
  Mon, Dec 22 100 @Florida St. L 68-82 9%    
  Thu, Jan 1 164 @Lipscomb L 66-75 22%    
  Sat, Jan 3 182 @Austin Peay L 65-73 24%    
  Thu, Jan 8 199 Queens L 74-75 47%    
  Sat, Jan 10 285 West Georgia W 71-68 63%    
  Thu, Jan 15 273 @Central Arkansas L 67-70 39%    
  Sat, Jan 17 200 @North Alabama L 65-72 27%    
  Thu, Jan 22 292 Bellarmine W 74-70 65%    
  Sat, Jan 24 258 Eastern Kentucky W 75-73 58%    
  Thu, Jan 29 164 Lipscomb L 69-72 41%    
  Sat, Jan 31 177 Florida Gulf Coast L 72-74 44%    
  Thu, Feb 5 199 @Queens L 71-78 27%    
  Sat, Feb 7 285 @West Georgia L 68-71 41%    
  Thu, Feb 12 348 @Stetson W 71-68 59%    
  Sat, Feb 14 343 North Florida W 81-73 75%    
  Thu, Feb 19 177 @Florida Gulf Coast L 69-77 25%    
  Sat, Feb 21 182 Austin Peay L 68-70 44%    
  Thu, Feb 26 348 Stetson W 74-65 77%    
  Sat, Feb 28 343 @North Florida W 78-76 57%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.0 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.8 2.7 0.7 0.0 6.8 3rd
4th 0.5 3.0 3.8 1.0 0.1 8.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.8 4.4 1.6 0.1 9.1 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 5.7 2.7 0.2 0.0 11.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 6.0 3.5 0.4 11.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 5.3 4.4 0.8 0.0 12.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 4.4 4.2 0.9 0.0 11.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.3 3.6 1.0 0.1 9.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 2.3 0.7 0.1 6.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.9 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.5 4.6 7.4 10.4 12.6 14.2 13.3 11.0 9.1 6.3 3.9 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 97.8% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 91.9% 0.9    0.7 0.2
14-4 64.1% 1.2    0.6 0.5 0.1
13-5 29.6% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.3% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 2.1 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 61.5% 61.5% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 30.1% 30.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.9% 24.0% 24.0% 14.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-4 1.9% 15.9% 15.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.6
13-5 3.9% 15.5% 15.5% 15.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 3.3
12-6 6.3% 9.4% 9.4% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 5.7
11-7 9.1% 7.3% 7.3% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 8.5
10-8 11.0% 6.3% 6.3% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 10.3
9-9 13.3% 3.7% 3.7% 15.9 0.0 0.5 12.8
8-10 14.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 13.8
7-11 12.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 12.5
6-12 10.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.4
5-13 7.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 7.4
4-14 4.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.6
3-15 2.5% 2.5
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.4 95.6 0.0%