Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.9 308
Expected Predictive Rating -9.1 307
Pace 61.7 345
Improvement +0.9 146

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #315 D C- C- D+ C
Defense D+ #283 D- C+ D+ D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 157 54% 283 -1.3 231
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 162 37% 187 +0.1 172
Three Pointers 39% 212 30% 328 -3.2 290
1st FG Attempt 0.93 313 -4.4 314
Second Chance 28.6% 235 1.02 194 0.29 225
Turnovers 17.8% 243
Freethrows 0.28 264 71% 232 0.20 266
Total Offense -5.5 315

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 61 64% 331 -5.5 342
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 173 37% 143 +0.2 174
Three Pointers 36% 322 39% 341 +0.0 175
1st FG Attempt 1.12 338 -5.3 338
Second Chance 29.6% 142 0.98 104 0.29 110
Turnovers 15.1% 294
Freethrows 0.37 337 70% 66 0.26 319
Total Defense -3.4 283

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.0 199 +0.3 228
Shot Type Accuracy -4.3 320 +4.9 341
Possession Length 19.4 348 17.1 157
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 311 0.14 86
Improvement +0.6 #143 +0.3 #168

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 2% 3% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 4% 2% 12%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: North Florida (Home) - 72.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 31 - 61 - 12
Quad 49 - 810 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 41 @Miami (FL) L 69 - 86 2% -9  5% 0 - 1 C -1 C- -2 B D C+ C+ +2 C+ F A-
 Tue, Nov 11 92 @High Point L 64 - 85 6% -11  17% 0 - 2 D- -13 F+ -9 F D B- D+ -4 B B+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 360 @VMI W 69 - 67 64% +3  84% 1 - 2 D -11 F -11 D A- F C +0 D F A
 Tue, Nov 18 89 @George Mason L 57 - 79 6% -12  0% 1 - 3 D- -13 F -10 D C- F D+ -5 F A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 227 Bethune-Cookman W 69 - 64 30% -2  26% 2 - 3 C +1 C- -1 B- D B- B- +2 C+ A F+
 Tue, Nov 25 115 Pacific L 53 - 68 13% -7  5% 2 - 4 D- -12 F -12 F F+ B C- -2 B- B- D-
 Tue, Dec 2 328 Florida A&M W 85 - 82 OT 68% -0  49% 3 - 4 D -11 C +0 D+ C+ A+ F -11 F B C+
 Sat, Dec 6 188 @Florida International L 65 - 88 17% -18  3% 3 - 5 F -22 F+ -8 F B- F F -14 F A C-
 Sun, Dec 14 31 @Texas A&M L 75 - 112 2% -24  2% 3 - 6 F -19 C +0 B+ D- F F -16 F F C+
 Wed, Dec 17 328 @Florida A&M L 65 - 72 45% -9  0% 3 - 7 F+ -15 D- -7 D+ F C D- -8 F+ A F
 Mon, Dec 22 93 @Florida St. L 63 - 87 6% -18  0% 3 - 8 F+ -16 D+ -3 D+ F A+ F -14 D- C- D+
 Thu, Jan 1 187 @Lipscomb L 57 - 76 17% -9  2% 3 - 9 0 - 1 F -18 D- -7 D C+ F F -14 F A F
 Sat, Jan 3 152 @Austin Peay L 68 - 71 13% -2  22% 3 - 10 0 - 2 C +0 D+ -4 B A- F B- +4 B+ A F
 Thu, Jan 8 218 Queens L 51 - 77 39% -15  0% 3 - 11 0 - 3 F -32 F -29 F C- F D+ -5 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 317 West Georgia W 75 - 43 64% +17  99% 4 - 11 1 - 3 A +19 B +6 A- F A+ A+ +19 B+ A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 190 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 62 18% +5  70% 4 - 12 1 - 4 C -1 D+ -4 F B A+ B- +2 D A C+
 Sat, Jan 17 344 @North Alabama W 90 - 68 51% +13  85% 5 - 12 2 - 4 B+ +13 A +13 B- A+ C C+ +1 C C+ D-
 Thu, Jan 22 283 Bellarmine L 70 - 77 54% -1  32% 5 - 13 2 - 5 F+ -17 F+ -8 F C- B F+ -10 F D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 267 Eastern Kentucky W 81 - 76 OT 51% -3  13% 6 - 13 3 - 5 C- -4 C- -1 C A F C- -3 D F+ A-
 Thu, Jan 29 187 Lipscomb W 70 - 65 35% +8  97% 7 - 13 4 - 5 C +0 C+ +3 B C A+ C- -2 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 31 243 Florida Gulf Coast L 49 - 68 45% -3  44% 7 - 14 4 - 6 F -27 F -28 F F F C -0 B- C F+
 Thu, Feb 5 218 @Queens L 84 - 93 20% -11  1% 7 - 15 4 - 7 D -9 C+ +3 C+ C D F -12 F B+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 317 @West Georgia L 73 - 87 41% -6  4% 7 - 16 4 - 8 F -21 D+ -4 F+ B D+ F -17 D F F
 Wed, Feb 11 333 @Stetson L 62 - 67 46% -5  6% 7 - 17 4 - 9 D- -13 F -11 F C- C+ C- -3 D- B+ F+
 Sat, Feb 14 345 North Florida W 81 - 75 73%
 Thu, Feb 19 243 @Florida Gulf Coast L 67 - 74 25%
 Sat, Feb 21 152 Austin Peay L 67 - 73 29%
 Thu, Feb 26 333 Stetson W 72 - 67 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 345 @North Florida W 78 - 77 51%
Totals 9 - 20 6 - 12 -9 D -5 D C- C- D+ -3 D- C+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D+ C D- D 39% 21% 39% C D C- C C- C- D+ C- D+ D+ D- C+ F+ D- 43% 21% 36% C- D- C+ C+ C+ D+ D- B- D
1.01 54% 37% 30% -4 0 0.93 29% 1.0 .29 18% .28 71% .20 1.13 64% 37% 39% +5 0 1.12 30% 1.0 .29 15% .37 70% .20
Nov
3		 Miami (FL) C- A+ C- D- B- 33% 17% 50% B B F+ B+ D C+ D+ F F+ C+ F C A+ B- 61% 11% 27% F C+ B F F A- F F F
0.94 72% 33% 30% +1 0 1.04 16% 1.2 .19 19% .23 50% .12 1.17 74% 40% 17% +3 +3 1.14 35% 2.0 .70 20% .63 78% .49
Nov
11		 High Point F+ F+ F D F 32% 8% 60% B- F C F+ D B- C- D C- D+ B- A+ C- B+ 48% 13% 38% C- B A- B- B+ F F D+ F
0.93 50% 0% 30% -9 +1 0.86 32% 0.9 .29 20% .29 69% .20 1.23 56% 14% 35% -4 +2 0.98 25% 1.1 .28 4% .46 77% .35
Nov
15		 VMI F B- F+ D+ D- 40% 13% 47% B D C- A+ A- F F F F C B D D D- 35% 24% 41% B+ D D F F A A- F B-
1.04 67% 33% 33% +2 +1 1.09 39% 1.3 .52 29% .21 50% .11 1.01 47% 42% 35% -2 -1 0.96 30% 1.4 .43 23% .21 82% .17
Nov
18		 George Mason F F+ A+ F D- 50% 19% 31% A- D A+ F C- F A- A+ A+ D+ F C+ F F 47% 21% 32% D+ F C A+ A+ B+ F A F
0.87 48% 50% 23% -8 +1 0.88 39% 0.6 .23 29% .32 87% .28 1.21 83% 38% 58% +23 +1 1.50 32% 0.4 .12 20% .67 63% .42
Nov
24		 Bethune-Cookman C- B+ F D+ C+ 53% 13% 34% B B- C- D- D B- A+ F B- B- F C A+ C 36% 28% 36% B+ C+ B A+ A F+ F A+ C
1.07 64% 17% 31% -1 +2 1.04 30% 1.0 .30 14% .45 56% .25 0.99 72% 36% 22% -2 -1 0.96 24% 0.7 .16 14% .43 50% .22
Nov
25		 Pacific F A+ F F F 30% 40% 30% F+ F F+ F+ F+ B C+ C+ C+ C- F F A+ B- 32% 18% 50% C+ B- F A+ B- D- F B- F
0.87 79% 21% 14% -9 -3 0.77 17% 0.8 .14 13% .34 72% .25 1.12 71% 63% 23% 0 0 1.02 50% 0.6 .31 16% .45 74% .34
Dec
2		 Florida A&M C C- F B D 39% 12% 49% C+ D+ C B- C+ A+ D F F+ F F A+ F F 33% 28% 39% B F A+ F B C+ A+ A+ A+
1.15 57% 14% 38% 0 +1 1.03 33% 1.0 .33 12% .29 68% .20 1.11 83% 20% 62% +20 -1 1.39 8% 2.0 .16 23% .11 50% .05
Dec
6		 Florida International F+ F F C F 23% 19% 58% D- F A- D+ B- F D+ F D- F F+ A+ F F 48% 18% 34% D+ F A+ C+ A C- F F F
0.95 33% 30% 33% -8 -1 0.85 43% 0.9 .41 26% .28 64% .18 1.29 67% 25% 67% +19 +1 1.41 23% 1.0 .23 16% .52 77% .40
Dec
14		 Texas A&M C D+ A+ B B+ 39% 12% 49% B+ B+ D+ F D- F C+ A+ B+ F D F F F 43% 17% 41% B+ F F F F C+ D+ A- C
0.98 53% 67% 38% +4 +1 1.12 26% 0.7 .18 25% .30 82% .24 1.46 65% 67% 50% +18 +1 1.39 52% 1.2 .64 16% .36 70% .25
Dec
17		 Florida A&M D- F F A+ D 49% 11% 40% B+ D+ F F F C D D+ D D- F D C- F 39% 31% 31% B F+ C+ A+ A F F A F
1.00 48% 0% 47% -1 +2 1.04 23% 0.6 .13 18% .30 75% .23 1.10 68% 40% 33% +4 -1 1.08 27% 0.4 .10 12% .51 59% .30
Dec
22		 Florida St. D+ A+ A+ F C- 15% 32% 53% F D+ D- F F A+ D C D F F B- C F 29% 12% 59% B- D- F A+ C- D+ F D F
0.97 88% 59% 18% -2 -3 0.92 24% 0.6 .14 11% .24 71% .17 1.34 80% 33% 33% +5 0 1.14 46% 0.9 .40 12% .46 77% .35
Jan
1		 Lipscomb D- B- F+ D- D 27% 24% 49% D+ D B+ D C+ F C- D- D+ F F A- F F 40% 16% 44% B- F B A+ A F B F C
0.97 64% 30% 30% -3 -1 0.93 38% 0.9 .34 25% .27 67% .18 1.29 75% 25% 45% +12 +1 1.28 21% 0.7 .14 7% .20 91% .18
Jan
3		 Austin Peay D+ B- D A+ B 38% 20% 42% C B C- A+ A- F A F C+ B- C- A+ A A- 44% 20% 35% D+ B+ B+ A+ A F F+ D- F
0.99 65% 33% 42% +7 0 1.16 29% 1.1 .32 25% .38 55% .21 1.03 58% 18% 26% -8 0 0.87 23% 0.9 .20 12% .36 77% .28
Jan
8		 Queens F F F F F 48% 16% 36% B- F C- C- C- F B- F F D+ C+ F F F 44% 4% 52% F F B+ A+ A+ C+ C- A+ B
0.78 43% 29% 25% -14 +1 0.77 32% 1.0 .32 20% .38 45% .17 1.18 57% 50% 52% +14 +2 1.35 25% 0.4 .11 17% .31 59% .18
Jan
10		 West Georgia B F A+ A+ A 43% 26% 32% F+ A- F A+ F A+ D- A C- A+ F A+ A+ A 40% 31% 29% D B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A F
1.27 45% 58% 60% +12 0 1.26 13% 1.3 .17 8% .28 80% .22 0.73 71% 18% 10% -11 -1 0.77 19% 0.8 .15 25% .50 64% .32
Jan
15		 Central Arkansas D+ F A+ F F 34% 13% 53% C F A D- B A+ B B B B- D F B D- 43% 25% 33% B- D D- A+ A C+ F D F
1.02 31% 50% 24% -15 +1 0.72 39% 1.0 .39 10% .32 76% .25 1.05 65% 50% 31% +4 0 1.10 31% 0.5 .16 17% .43 71% .31
Jan
17		 North Alabama A D- C+ A+ C+ 61% 14% 25% A- B- C- A+ A+ C B A+ A C+ C F A+ C+ 53% 11% 36% F C A+ F C+ D- F F F
1.34 52% 43% 54% +4 +3 1.16 35% 1.9 .65 15% .31 89% .28 1.01 54% 60% 19% -8 +2 0.91 19% 1.5 .29 15% .52 77% .40
Jan
22		 Bellarmine F+ D- A F+ F 43% 13% 43% B+ F F A+ C- B C A+ A+ F+ B C- F F 56% 11% 33% F+ F F+ B- D+ C+ B- F C
1.12 55% 50% 30% -2 +1 1.00 21% 1.8 .38 13% .31 100% .31 1.23 56% 40% 60% +12 +2 1.31 25% 1.0 .25 18% .27 86% .23
Jan
24		 Eastern Kentucky C- D A+ C- B 30% 43% 27% F C B+ A- A F A+ B- A+ C- C+ F+ D- D 40% 24% 36% D D F C- F+ A- F C F
1.18 54% 63% 33% +9 -4 1.14 39% 1.2 .46 20% .55 77% .42 1.11 56% 45% 38% +3 0 1.07 40% 1.2 .47 22% .52 71% .37
Jan
29		 Lipscomb C+ B C+ C+ B- 43% 21% 36% B- B D+ B C A+ C A B- C- C D- A+ B 58% 10% 32% F C+ A- F F F B+ A A-
1.16 65% 40% 35% +4 0 1.11 29% 1.1 .32 12% .28 80% .22 1.08 59% 40% 25% -4 +3 1.00 19% 2.0 .38 12% .19 70% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Florida Gulf Coast F C- A+ F F 34% 30% 36% F+ F D F F F D- F F C C+ A+ D- B 48% 25% 27% F+ B- A F C F+ F A+ F
0.74 56% 50% 6% -12 -1 0.74 26% 0.7 .18 24% .30 53% .16 1.03 57% 25% 38% -2 0 0.98 22% 1.4 .31 14% .44 60% .26
Feb
5		 Queens C+ D A+ A+ B- 38% 27% 36% D- C+ F A+ C D A+ A+ A+ F F A F F 43% 26% 30% B+ F B+ B- B+ F F B- F
1.19 53% 50% 44% +7 -1 1.13 24% 1.5 .36 17% .50 86% .43 1.32 74% 29% 50% +12 0 1.25 25% 1.0 .25 7% .40 73% .29
Feb
7		 West Georgia D+ C- F F F 56% 14% 30% B- F+ B- B B D+ A+ D A- F D+ B+ C- D+ 46% 28% 26% F D F F F F F C F
1.08 57% 29% 27% -5 +2 0.96 34% 1.1 .37 16% .44 68% .30 1.29 57% 31% 33% -3 0 0.96 47% 1.2 .58 12% .54 72% .39
Feb
11		 Stetson F C+ F F F 42% 25% 33% D+ F B- F+ C- C+ A- C+ A- C- B+ F+ F F+ 35% 23% 43% C D- C+ A+ B+ F+ F A+ F
0.99 65% 17% 13% -13 0 0.75 37% 1.0 .37 14% .35 74% .26 1.07 50% 44% 41% +3 0 1.08 24% 0.8 .18 14% .60 56% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.8 1.9 4.7 5th
6th 1.6 6.2 0.5 8.3 6th
7th 0.2 9.5 4.0 0.0 13.6 7th
8th 2.8 13.9 0.8 17.5 8th
9th 0.1 13.1 6.0 0.0 19.3 9th
10th 3.8 15.9 0.7 20.4 10th
11th 2.6 11.2 1.5 15.3 11th
12th 0.6 0.3 0.9 12th
Total 3.1 15.5 33.5 31.8 13.8 2.4 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 2.4% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.1 2.3
8-10 13.8% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 13.6
7-11 31.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.4 31.4
6-12 33.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.3 33.2
5-13 15.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 15.4
4-14 3.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 16.0 98.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 2.2%