Florida International
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.1 #192
Expected Predictive Rating -4.4 #231
Pace 76.6 #27
Improvement -1.7 #258

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #189 C B- C C- C+
Defense #215 C F A- C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #28 1.09 #256 +2.6 #94
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #173 0.73 #215 -0.3 #185
Three Pointers 34% #317 1.04 #150 -3.2 #291
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #210 -0.9 #210
Freethrows 18.2 #160 67% #335 12.1 #216
Second Chance 33.5% #101 1.09 #121 0.37 #87
Turnovers 16.2% #157
Total Offense -0.9 #189

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #272 1.10 #99 +2.9 #82
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #320 0.86 #321 +1.0 #117
Three Pointers 49% #15 1.02 #192 -4.0 #323
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #185 -0.1 #185
Freethrows 17.3 #171 72% #187 12.5 #167
Second Chance 35.9% #337 1.13 #289 0.41 #342
Turnovers 19.9% #31
Total Defense -1.2 #215

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #125 0.8% #241
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.7% #218 -0.5% #172
Possession Length 14.6 #7 18.0 #283
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #25 0.17 #165
Improvement -1.7 #279 -0.1 #191

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.7% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 12.3% 24.1% 8.0%
.500 or above in Conference 13.4% 27.4% 8.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.7% 4.4% 11.6%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 0.7%
First Round2.2% 3.6% 1.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Away) - 26.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 33 - 83 - 14
Quad 49 - 412 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 14 @Nebraska L 66 - 96 3% -21  0 - 1 -9 -2 D A F -4 F D- A+
 Thu, Nov 13 43 @LSU L 81 - 98 7% -10  0 - 2 -2 +6 C B+ A- -6 B F A-
 Mon, Nov 24 231 James Madison L 72 - 80 68% +1  0 - 3 -15 -4 D- F B -11 A+ F D
 Wed, Nov 26 261 Nebraska Omaha W 74 - 61 73% +8  1 - 3 +4 -6 F C A+ +10 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 225 Florida Gulf Coast W 89 - 83 67% +6  2 - 3 -1 +4 D+ A- D+ -5 B D- B
 Sat, Dec 6 292 Jacksonville W 88 - 65 79% +18  3 - 3 +12 +13 A+ C- C -0 A- F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 40 @Miami (FL) L 81 - 98 6% -6  3 - 4 -2 +10 B B B -10 F C- C
 Sat, Dec 20 222 LIU Brooklyn W 86 - 79 67% +2  4 - 4 +0 +3 A C D -3 C+ D- A+
 Sun, Dec 28 94 Liberty L 94 - 97 OT 33% +0  4 - 5 0 - 1 -0 +11 C A+ C- -12 C F C
 Fri, Jan 2 133 New Mexico St. W 89 - 74 47% +11  5 - 5 1 - 1 +14 +13 A- A+ D- +1 F A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 256 UTEP W 76 - 64 72% +2  6 - 5 2 - 1 +4 +3 C A+ C- +1 B B C+
 Wed, Jan 7 216 @Jacksonville St. L 64 - 71 43% -1  6 - 6 2 - 2 -7 -3 C- F F -5 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 179 @Missouri St. L 71 - 79 36% -6  6 - 7 2 - 3 -6 -3 F C B- -3 C F A+
 Wed, Jan 14 150 @Kennesaw St. L 86 - 89 29% +4  6 - 8 2 - 4 +1 +10 D- A+ B- -9 F C+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 124 Sam Houston St. L 63 - 76 44% -7  6 - 9 2 - 5 -14 -15 F D- F +2 C+ B A+
 Thu, Jan 22 256 @UTEP L 77 - 83 50% -5  6 - 10 2 - 6 -8 +2 B F C -10 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 133 @New Mexico St. L 74 - 81 26%
 Wed, Jan 28 216 Jacksonville St. W 76 - 72 65%
 Wed, Feb 4 128 @Middle Tennessee L 71 - 78 25%
 Sat, Feb 7 162 @Western Kentucky L 79 - 84 33%
 Thu, Feb 12 295 Delaware W 77 - 68 79%
 Sat, Feb 14 228 Louisiana Tech W 72 - 67 67%
 Thu, Feb 19 94 @Liberty L 72 - 83 16%
 Sat, Feb 21 179 Missouri St. W 76 - 74 59%
 Thu, Feb 26 124 @Sam Houston St. L 78 - 86 24%
 Sat, Feb 28 228 @Louisiana Tech L 69 - 70 45%
 Thu, Mar 5 128 Middle Tennessee L 74 - 75 46%
 Sat, Mar 7 162 Western Kentucky W 82 - 81 54%
Totals 11 - 17 7 - 13 -2 -1 C B- C -1 C F A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.4 4th
5th 0.3 2.5 1.2 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.7 3.7 0.4 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.9 6.0 1.6 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 6.9 4.5 0.2 12.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 7.6 8.1 1.1 0.0 18.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 7.4 9.3 2.3 0.1 20.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.5 6.8 7.4 2.6 0.1 19.6 11th
12th 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.0 4.4 12th
Total 0.2 1.1 4.2 9.8 16.6 20.8 19.4 14.6 8.5 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.2% 16.7% 16.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 1.1% 13.4% 13.4% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0
11-9 3.5% 8.2% 8.2% 14.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.2
10-10 8.5% 5.2% 5.2% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 8.1
9-11 14.6% 3.2% 3.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 14.1
8-12 19.4% 2.4% 2.4% 15.8 0.1 0.4 18.9
7-13 20.8% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 20.5
6-14 16.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 16.4
5-15 9.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.7
4-16 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.2
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 15.0 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%