Miami (FL)
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +12.3 #40
Expected Predictive Rating +13.3 #39
Pace 71.4 #109
Improvement -3.6 #328

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #58 B+ B+ B- C+ A-
Defense #34 B- B A B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 51% #2 1.30 #52 +10.8 #1
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #247 0.82 #83 -0.7 #212
Three Pointers 32% #338 1.00 #201 -4.8 #324
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #47 +5.3 #47
Freethrows 19.3 #104 70% #265 13.5 #141
Second Chance 38.0% #20 1.04 #186 0.40 #51
Turnovers 15.4% #115
Total Offense +5.8 #58

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #304 1.09 #93 +3.7 #62
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #63 0.67 #55 -0.5 #215
Three Pointers 41% #170 1.05 #224 -0.8 #214
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #102 +2.4 #102
Freethrows 16.7 #133 66% #7 11.0 #67
Second Chance 24.8% #19 1.09 #244 0.27 #65
Turnovers 20.2% #24
Total Defense +6.5 #34

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.7% #29 -1.7% #56
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.4% #68 -3.0% #127
Possession Length 15.8 #50 18.3 #315
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #71 0.13 #47
Improvement -2.0 #297 -1.7 #280

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 4.2% 6.1% 1.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 63.8% 72.1% 53.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 62.8% 71.2% 52.8%
Average Seed 9.1 8.8 9.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 91.0% 96.3% 84.6%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.5% 12.2% 15.0%
First Round57.1% 66.0% 46.3%
Second Round26.5% 31.7% 20.3%
Sweet Sixteen5.9% 7.3% 4.3%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.4% 1.4%
Final Four0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Syracuse (Away) - 54.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 14 - 7
Quad 25 - 29 - 9
Quad 35 - 114 - 10
Quad 49 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 292 Jacksonville W 86 - 69 97% +9  1 - 0 +6 +5 C A+ F +1 D- A+ A-
 Thu, Nov 6 269 Bethune-Cookman W 101 - 61 97% +20  2 - 0 +31 +21 A+ D- A+ +9 A+ D- C
 Mon, Nov 10 332 Stetson W 102 - 61 98% +18  3 - 0 +27 +10 A D+ C- +12 A+ C A-
 Sun, Nov 16 10 Florida L 68 - 82 22% -7  3 - 1 +6 -1 C- D+ B+ +9 C+ A+ B+
 Thu, Nov 20 184 Elon W 99 - 72 93% +10  4 - 1 +22 +16 A A+ B- +6 F A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 355 Delaware St. W 97 - 41 99% +31  5 - 1 +39 +20 A+ B- A +19 B- A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 12 BYU L 62 - 72 27% -3  5 - 2 +9 -1 F B- B+ +10 B- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 93 Georgetown W 78 - 65 74% +14  6 - 2 +19 +14 A+ B- F +6 A+ F A-
 Tue, Dec 2 62 @Mississippi W 75 - 66 52% +8  7 - 2 +21 +11 A+ A+ F +10 A+ D+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 244 Southern Miss W 88 - 64 96% +5  8 - 2 +16 +9 B B+ D- +6 B- F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 361 Louisiana Monroe W 104 - 79 99% +12  9 - 2 +6 +20 A+ B- A+ -14 F D F
 Tue, Dec 16 192 Florida International W 98 - 81 94% +6  10 - 2 +12 +15 A+ C A+ -4 D+ B B
 Sun, Dec 21 350 North Florida W 105 - 67 99% +18  11 - 2 +23 +13 A C+ C +7 A+ D A+
 Tue, Dec 30 91 Pittsburgh W 76 - 69 82% -1  12 - 2 1 - 0 +10 +8 F A+ B +2 A+ C F
 Wed, Jan 7 63 @Wake Forest W 81 - 77 53% -1  13 - 2 2 - 0 +16 +16 C A+ A -1 F A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 113 Georgia Tech W 91 - 81 86% +10  14 - 2 3 - 0 +10 +15 A+ C+ A+ -5 C B+ B
 Tue, Jan 13 84 @Notre Dame W 81 - 69 59% +5  15 - 2 4 - 0 +22 +17 A+ D+ B+ +6 C+ C- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 32 @Clemson L 59 - 69 32% -9  15 - 3 4 - 1 +7 +1 C B F +5 D- A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 20 111 Florida St. L 63 - 65 86% -0  15 - 4 4 - 2 -1 -9 F C C +8 D+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 67 @Syracuse W 76 - 75 54%
 Wed, Jan 28 77 Stanford W 79 - 71 77%
 Sat, Jan 31 75 California W 79 - 71 76%
 Sat, Feb 7 134 @Boston College W 74 - 66 77%
 Tue, Feb 10 31 North Carolina W 79 - 78 54%
 Sat, Feb 14 26 @North Carolina St. L 75 - 81 29%
 Tue, Feb 17 58 Virginia Tech W 79 - 73 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 16 @Virginia L 69 - 78 22%
 Tue, Feb 24 111 @Florida St. W 84 - 78 70%
 Sat, Feb 28 134 Boston College W 77 - 63 90%
 Wed, Mar 4 29 @SMU L 77 - 82 32%
 Sat, Mar 7 13 Louisville L 78 - 81 39%
Totals 22 - 9 11 - 7 +12 +6 B+ B+ B- +7 B- B A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.6 0.9 0.1 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.3 6.0 1.9 0.1 11.7 3rd
4th 0.1 3.3 8.6 3.7 0.3 0.0 16.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.6 8.9 5.5 0.5 16.5 5th
6th 0.4 6.1 7.5 1.0 0.0 15.1 6th
7th 0.0 2.5 7.5 2.0 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.5 4.7 3.2 0.1 8.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.6 3.6 0.5 5.8 9th
10th 0.3 2.4 1.1 0.0 3.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.1 2.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.9 0.3 1.3 12th
13th 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.1 6.3 12.4 19.0 22.2 18.8 12.0 5.0 1.4 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 51.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 24.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 4.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 5.7% 94.3% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.4% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 5.0% 97.9% 7.9% 90.0% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 97.7%
13-5 12.0% 94.4% 5.7% 88.7% 8.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 3.7 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.7 94.1%
12-6 18.8% 85.3% 3.6% 81.7% 9.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.6 5.0 4.4 1.4 2.8 84.7%
11-7 22.2% 70.0% 1.9% 68.1% 9.7 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.0 6.1 3.6 0.0 6.7 69.4%
10-8 19.0% 52.2% 1.3% 50.9% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.8 4.2 0.0 9.1 51.5%
9-9 12.4% 30.3% 0.9% 29.4% 10.5 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.3 0.0 8.7 29.7%
8-10 6.3% 11.1% 0.5% 10.6% 10.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 5.6 10.7%
7-11 2.1% 2.2% 0.5% 1.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.7%
6-12 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% 11.0 0.0 0.6 0.9%
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 63.8% 2.7% 61.1% 9.1 36.2 62.8%