Purdue
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.3#7
Expected Predictive Rating+23.5#7
Pace63.7#321
Improvement-1.6#289

Offense
Total Offense+13.4#1
First Shot+11.2#5
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#55
Layup/Dunks+3.8#63
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#81
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#37
Freethrows-0.2#191
Improvement-1.4#296

Defense
Total Defense+6.9#25
First Shot+6.3#26
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#151
Layups/Dunks+7.1#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#344
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#322
Freethrows+6.8#1
Improvement-0.1#201
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.2% 6.4% 2.3%
#1 Seed 27.1% 27.7% 13.2%
Top 2 Seed 56.6% 57.6% 35.6%
Top 4 Seed 88.4% 89.0% 76.0%
Top 6 Seed 97.1% 97.4% 91.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.7% 99.8% 98.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.6% 99.7% 98.2%
Average Seed 2.6 2.6 3.5
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 98.3% 90.8%
Conference Champion 19.4% 19.9% 7.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 1.6%
First Round99.6% 99.7% 97.9%
Second Round94.2% 94.5% 88.6%
Sweet Sixteen67.5% 67.9% 58.2%
Elite Eight39.4% 39.9% 27.8%
Final Four20.4% 20.7% 13.3%
Championship Game10.1% 10.2% 5.9%
National Champion4.7% 4.8% 2.3%

Next Game: Minnesota (Home) - 95.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 56 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 112 - 7
Quad 26 - 118 - 7
Quad 35 - 023 - 7
Quad 43 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 265 Evansville W 82-51 99%     1 - 0 +22.4 +17.8 +8.8
  Fri, Nov 7 146 Oakland W 87-77 97%     2 - 0 +7.9 +8.5 -0.6
  Thu, Nov 13 10 @Alabama W 87-80 45%     3 - 0 +28.7 +22.5 +6.3
  Sun, Nov 16 54 Akron W 97-79 89%     4 - 0 +25.2 +20.1 +4.4
  Thu, Nov 20 69 Memphis W 80-71 87%     5 - 0 +17.2 +15.5 +2.1
  Fri, Nov 21 29 Texas Tech W 86-56 74%     6 - 0 +43.7 +23.6 +21.7
  Fri, Nov 28 329 Eastern Illinois W 109-62 99%     7 - 0 +34.1 +28.7 +4.2
  Tue, Dec 2 123 @Rutgers W 81-65 91%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +21.5 +18.1 +4.7
  Sat, Dec 6 2 Iowa St. L 58-81 52%     8 - 1 -3.2 -0.7 -4.2
  Wed, Dec 10 102 Minnesota W 77-59 96%    
  Sat, Dec 13 88 Marquette W 84-67 95%    
  Sat, Dec 20 26 Auburn W 79-73 72%    
  Mon, Dec 29 121 Kent St. W 90-70 97%    
  Sat, Jan 3 30 @Wisconsin W 79-75 64%    
  Wed, Jan 7 49 Washington W 81-68 88%    
  Sat, Jan 10 96 Penn St. W 85-67 95%    
  Wed, Jan 14 25 Iowa W 76-67 78%    
  Sat, Jan 17 35 @USC W 80-76 66%    
  Tue, Jan 20 27 @UCLA W 72-69 62%    
  Sat, Jan 24 15 Illinois W 79-74 69%    
  Tue, Jan 27 28 @Indiana W 75-72 62%    
  Sun, Feb 1 93 @Maryland W 80-68 86%    
  Sat, Feb 7 81 Oregon W 82-66 93%    
  Tue, Feb 10 48 @Nebraska W 79-72 72%    
  Sat, Feb 14 25 @Iowa W 73-70 59%    
  Tue, Feb 17 1 Michigan L 75-78 39%    
  Fri, Feb 20 28 Indiana W 78-69 80%    
  Thu, Feb 26 12 Michigan St. W 72-67 66%    
  Sun, Mar 1 24 @Ohio St. W 77-74 59%    
  Wed, Mar 4 61 @Northwestern W 78-70 77%    
  Sat, Mar 7 30 Wisconsin W 82-72 80%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.3 6.4 4.0 1.1 19.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 5.9 10.0 7.5 2.5 0.2 27.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 5.1 7.2 3.5 0.5 0.0 17.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.5 5.3 2.1 0.2 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 4.0 1.8 0.2 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.3 4.4 7.1 10.8 14.0 15.8 15.9 13.4 8.9 4.2 1.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
19-1 95.8% 4.0    3.3 0.7
18-2 71.9% 6.4    3.8 2.5 0.1
17-3 39.9% 5.3    2.2 2.6 0.6 0.0
16-4 13.7% 2.2    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 2.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.4% 19.4 10.9 6.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.1% 100.0% 36.9% 63.1% 1.1 1.0 0.2 100.0%
19-1 4.2% 100.0% 34.0% 66.0% 1.2 3.4 0.7 0.0 100.0%
18-2 8.9% 100.0% 27.9% 72.1% 1.3 5.9 2.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 13.4% 100.0% 22.1% 77.9% 1.6 6.9 5.6 0.9 0.0 100.0%
16-4 15.9% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 1.8 5.6 7.6 2.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 15.8% 100.0% 15.1% 84.9% 2.3 3.0 6.9 4.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 14.0% 100.0% 11.0% 89.0% 2.8 1.1 4.0 5.7 2.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 10.8% 100.0% 6.9% 93.1% 3.4 0.2 1.5 4.1 3.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 7.1% 100.0% 5.2% 94.8% 4.2 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.6 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 4.4% 100.0% 3.5% 96.5% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-10 2.3% 99.9% 2.2% 97.7% 5.9 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-11 1.2% 96.9% 2.5% 94.4% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.8%
8-12 0.6% 82.6% 1.8% 80.8% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 82.3%
7-13 0.2% 59.0% 59.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 59.0%
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.7% 15.6% 84.1% 2.6 27.1 29.6 20.3 11.5 6.0 2.7 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 99.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 89.7 10.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 88.8 11.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.1 86.4 13.6