USC
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.5#38
Expected Predictive Rating+18.0#18
Pace74.4#58
Improvement-2.8#333

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#40
First Shot+7.0#27
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#164
Layup/Dunks+1.7#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#217
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#217
Freethrows+6.9#1
Improvement-1.9#321

Defense
Total Defense+5.3#45
First Shot+4.2#54
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#102
Layups/Dunks+1.1#134
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#230
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#90
Freethrows+1.0#111
Improvement-0.9#247
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 1.3% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 5.7% 16.4% 5.2%
Top 6 Seed 23.9% 46.4% 22.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 76.3% 92.1% 75.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 76.1% 92.0% 75.2%
Average Seed 7.6 6.5 7.7
.500 or above 98.6% 99.9% 98.6%
.500 or above in Conference 55.9% 82.4% 54.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 2.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four7.9% 3.5% 8.1%
First Round72.2% 90.5% 71.2%
Second Round40.1% 56.9% 39.2%
Sweet Sixteen11.7% 21.7% 11.1%
Elite Eight3.6% 7.3% 3.4%
Final Four1.1% 2.4% 1.0%
Championship Game0.3% 0.7% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.3% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan (Away) - 5.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 26 - 8
Quad 26 - 212 - 11
Quad 34 - 016 - 11
Quad 45 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 257 Cal Poly W 94-64 96%     1 - 0 +21.6 +2.2 +14.8
  Sun, Nov 9 313 Manhattan W 114-83 98%     2 - 0 +19.2 +15.5 -1.0
  Fri, Nov 14 82 Illinois St. W 87-67 71%     3 - 0 +26.9 +18.1 +9.1
  Thu, Nov 20 139 Troy W 107-106 3OT 90%     4 - 0 -0.5 +1.3 -2.1
  Mon, Nov 24 51 Boise St. W 70-67 59%     5 - 0 +13.1 +3.8 +9.4
  Tue, Nov 25 54 Seton Hall W 83-81 62%     6 - 0 +11.5 +19.0 -7.5
  Wed, Nov 26 71 Arizona St. W 88-75 68%     7 - 0 +20.8 +22.3 -0.8
  Tue, Dec 2 56 @Oregon W 82-77 52%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +17.2 +15.4 +1.9
  Sat, Dec 6 48 Washington L 76-84 68%     8 - 1 1 - 1 -0.2 +3.8 -3.7
  Tue, Dec 9 260 @San Diego W 94-81 91%     9 - 1 +10.5 +9.1 +0.0
  Sun, Dec 14 149 Washington St. W 68-61 91%     10 - 1 +4.8 -6.7 +11.5
  Wed, Dec 17 287 Texas San Antonio W 97-70 97%     11 - 1 +17.3 +16.4 -0.5
  Fri, Jan 2 1 @Michigan L 74-91 5%    
  Mon, Jan 5 16 @Michigan St. L 70-78 22%    
  Fri, Jan 9 96 @Minnesota W 74-70 64%    
  Tue, Jan 13 94 Maryland W 84-74 82%    
  Sat, Jan 17 5 Purdue L 74-80 28%    
  Wed, Jan 21 57 Northwestern W 81-74 72%    
  Sun, Jan 25 46 @Wisconsin L 79-81 44%    
  Wed, Jan 28 18 @Iowa L 70-77 26%    
  Sat, Jan 31 147 Rutgers W 83-68 91%    
  Tue, Feb 3 29 Indiana W 78-77 53%    
  Sun, Feb 8 126 @Penn St. W 84-77 75%    
  Wed, Feb 11 31 @Ohio St. L 77-82 34%    
  Wed, Feb 18 10 Illinois L 78-82 34%    
  Sat, Feb 21 56 Oregon W 82-76 72%    
  Tue, Feb 24 30 @UCLA L 74-79 33%    
  Sat, Feb 28 25 Nebraska W 78-77 52%    
  Wed, Mar 4 48 @Washington L 77-78 45%    
  Sat, Mar 7 30 UCLA W 77-76 54%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.0 0.8 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 4.4 1.6 0.1 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.8 3.2 0.3 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.0 5.0 0.8 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.6 6.3 2.1 0.1 11.3 9th
10th 0.0 1.5 5.7 3.6 0.3 11.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 4.2 4.4 0.8 0.0 10.1 11th
12th 0.2 2.5 4.4 1.4 0.1 8.5 12th
13th 0.1 1.2 3.3 1.7 0.2 6.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 4.4 14th
15th 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.8 15th
16th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 5.1 8.4 12.2 14.9 16.0 14.6 11.1 7.5 4.0 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 81.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 36.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 16.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 2.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 9.8% 90.2% 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.7% 100.0% 6.0% 94.0% 3.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.9% 100.0% 5.7% 94.3% 3.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 4.0% 100.0% 2.8% 97.2% 4.6 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.4 0.7 0.2 100.0%
13-7 7.5% 99.9% 1.9% 98.0% 5.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 11.1% 99.9% 1.0% 98.9% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.0 3.7 3.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 14.6% 98.9% 0.6% 98.2% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.8 4.5 4.0 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.2 98.9%
10-10 16.0% 95.8% 0.3% 95.5% 8.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.9 4.8 4.2 2.0 0.2 0.7 95.8%
9-11 14.9% 82.9% 0.1% 82.8% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.8 4.4 1.8 0.0 2.5 82.9%
8-12 12.2% 56.5% 0.1% 56.5% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 3.3 0.1 0.0 5.3 56.5%
7-13 8.4% 20.6% 0.0% 20.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.2 6.7 20.5%
6-14 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 11.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.8 5.1%
5-15 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 2.3 0.1%
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 76.3% 0.7% 75.6% 7.6 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.6 7.3 10.9 12.4 12.3 11.1 9.4 6.7 0.4 0.0 23.7 76.1%