USC
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.9 #48
Expected Predictive Rating +13.6 #37
Pace 74.3 #52
Improvement -3.1 #316

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #74 B+ B- C A+ C
Defense #39 B A C+ C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #77 1.29 #55 +5.2 #32
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #107 0.83 #77 +2.1 #77
Three Pointers 34% #321 1.06 #115 -2.9 #283
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #60 +4.4 #60
Freethrows 25.3 #1 72% #182 18.3 #1
Second Chance 34.1% #87 1.05 #177 0.36 #100
Turnovers 16.6% #185
Total Offense +4.6 #74

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #226 1.05 #63 +2.7 #86
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #118 0.86 #322 -1.8 #313
Three Pointers 41% #196 0.92 #68 +2.2 #106
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #78 +3.1 #78
Freethrows 17.3 #169 74% #299 12.9 #194
Second Chance 27.5% #71 0.86 #14 0.24 #18
Turnovers 17.5% #111
Total Defense +6.3 #39

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.3% #208 -0.6% #115
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.9% #49 -5.6% #78
Possession Length 15.9 #53 17.9 #273
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #122 0.16 #125
Improvement -5.0 #362 +1.9 #68

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.4% 5.3% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.4% 64.8% 38.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 46.3% 64.7% 38.8%
Average Seed 9.2 8.8 9.5
.500 or above 98.1% 99.8% 97.4%
.500 or above in Conference 25.8% 44.0% 18.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four12.3% 11.6% 12.6%
First Round40.0% 58.8% 32.3%
Second Round16.8% 25.5% 13.3%
Sweet Sixteen3.3% 5.0% 2.6%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.4% 0.8%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin (Away) - 28.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 24 - 9
Quad 26 - 310 - 12
Quad 35 - 115 - 13
Quad 44 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 281 Cal Poly W 94 - 64 96% +12  1 - 0 +20 +2 C+ D D +14 A- A- A+
 Sun, Nov 9 327 Manhattan W 114 - 83 98% +16  2 - 0 +18 +15 D A+ C+ -2 C A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 14 90 Illinois St. W 87 - 67 67% +12  3 - 0 +26 +19 A+ A A+ +8 A+ C C+
 Thu, Nov 20 112 Troy W 107 - 106 3OT 84% +2  4 - 0 +1 +1 C- F A+ -0 A- F A-
 Mon, Nov 24 66 Boise St. W 70 - 67 60% +2  5 - 0 +11 +3 B+ C- D- +9 A+ C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 56 Seton Hall W 83 - 81 53% -2  6 - 0 +12 +21 A+ A+ D+ -8 F A+ D
 Wed, Nov 26 88 Arizona St. W 88 - 75 67% +4  7 - 0 +19 +21 A+ A+ C+ -1 C A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 2 68 @Oregon W 82 - 77 49% -1  8 - 0 1 - 0 +16 +16 A+ A F +0 D- B+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 47 Washington L 76 - 84 61% +8  8 - 1 1 - 1 -0 +3 D C- A+ -3 B+ D B+
 Tue, Dec 9 209 @San Diego W 94 - 81 85% +5  9 - 1 +13 +11 A+ C F +1 A- C C+
 Sun, Dec 14 141 Washington St. W 68 - 61 88% +6  10 - 1 +5 -8 F F D+ +13 A+ A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 17 345 Texas San Antonio W 97 - 70 98% +10  11 - 1 +12 +12 A+ B- C -2 B F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 1 @Michigan L 66 - 96 6% -16  11 - 2 1 - 2 -2 -3 C+ C F +6 A A+ C-
 Mon, Jan 5 11 @Michigan St. L 51 - 80 13% -14  11 - 3 1 - 3 -6 -8 F C+ F +2 F A+ C
 Fri, Jan 9 71 @Minnesota W 70 - 69 OT 50% +3  12 - 3 2 - 3 +12 +8 A+ F F +5 B B- C+
 Tue, Jan 13 100 Maryland W 88 - 71 80% +4  13 - 3 3 - 3 +19 +20 A B- A+ -0 D A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 5 Purdue L 64 - 69 24% +2  13 - 4 3 - 4 +13 -2 D A+ D+ +15 A+ A+ C
 Wed, Jan 21 60 Northwestern L 68 - 74 68% -1  13 - 5 3 - 5 +0 -1 D- D+ A+ +1 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Jan 25 35 @Wisconsin L 78 - 84 29%
 Wed, Jan 28 23 @Iowa L 67 - 76 21%
 Sat, Jan 31 115 Rutgers W 80 - 69 84%
 Tue, Feb 3 37 Indiana W 78 - 77 52%
 Sun, Feb 8 116 @Penn St. W 81 - 76 67%
 Wed, Feb 11 30 @Ohio St. L 75 - 81 27%
 Wed, Feb 18 9 Illinois L 74 - 81 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 68 Oregon W 78 - 72 70%
 Tue, Feb 24 36 @UCLA L 71 - 77 30%
 Sat, Feb 28 14 Nebraska L 74 - 78 34%
 Wed, Mar 4 47 @Washington L 75 - 78 39%
 Sat, Mar 7 36 UCLA W 74 - 73 51%
Totals 18 - 12 8 - 12 +11 +5 B+ B- C +6 B A C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 2.6 1.5 0.1 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.3 3.0 0.4 7.2 8th
9th 0.3 3.5 5.7 1.2 0.0 10.7 9th
10th 0.3 3.3 8.4 3.6 0.1 15.7 10th
11th 0.1 2.3 8.9 5.6 0.5 17.3 11th
12th 0.0 1.3 7.3 7.3 1.3 0.0 17.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 4.4 6.3 1.5 0.1 12.9 13th
14th 0.1 1.6 3.5 1.1 0.0 6.3 14th
15th 0.4 1.6 0.9 0.0 2.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.3 16th
17th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.1 1.3 4.4 10.2 17.3 21.4 19.5 13.8 7.5 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 100.0% 2.8% 97.2% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 1.0% 100.0% 1.5% 98.5% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 100.0%
12-8 3.4% 99.3% 0.7% 98.5% 7.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.3%
11-9 7.5% 96.9% 0.5% 96.5% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 2.7 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.2 96.9%
10-10 13.8% 89.4% 0.3% 89.1% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 4.3 3.2 0.8 1.5 89.3%
9-11 19.5% 66.8% 0.1% 66.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 5.4 4.1 0.0 6.5 66.7%
8-12 21.4% 35.6% 0.1% 35.5% 10.6 0.1 0.4 1.9 5.1 0.1 13.8 35.6%
7-13 17.3% 9.0% 0.0% 9.0% 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.1 15.7 9.0%
6-14 10.2% 0.9% 0.9% 11.2 0.1 0.0 10.1 0.9%
5-15 4.4% 4.4
4-16 1.3% 1.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 46.4% 0.2% 46.2% 9.2 53.7 46.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%