Texas San Antonio
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#269
Expected Predictive Rating-7.5#279
Pace73.1#97
Improvement+0.2#176

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#294
First Shot-6.1#333
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#89
Layup/Dunks-3.1#288
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#187
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#231
Freethrows-1.3#254
Improvement-1.5#296

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#218
First Shot+3.0#81
After Offensive Rebounds-4.5#353
Layups/Dunks+3.2#71
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#1
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#270
Freethrows-1.9#291
Improvement+1.7#48
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 1.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.0 14.8
.500 or above 1.7% 21.8% 1.6%
.500 or above in Conference 10.6% 27.8% 10.5%
Conference Champion 0.2% 3.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 38.4% 28.6% 38.4%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 1.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 0.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 33 - 93 - 16
Quad 45 - 68 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 206 SIU Edwardsville L 60-77 49%     0 - 1 -22.8 -15.2 -7.0
  Wed, Nov 12 232 @Texas St. L 69-80 32%     0 - 2 -12.2 -3.0 -9.1
  Sat, Nov 15 291 @Denver W 84-79 43%     1 - 2 +0.9 +10.9 -9.7
  Mon, Nov 24 234 Abilene Christian L 50-61 44%     1 - 3 -15.4 -15.3 -1.6
  Tue, Nov 25 226 Georgia Southern W 77-64 42%     2 - 3 +9.0 -1.6 +10.0
  Sun, Nov 30 165 South Alabama L 58-82 41%     2 - 4 -27.7 -17.8 -9.5
  Sun, Dec 7 11 @Alabama L 71-99 0.4%   
  Sat, Dec 13 64 @Colorado L 68-86 5%    
  Wed, Dec 17 32 @USC L 67-90 2%    
  Mon, Dec 22 114 Seattle L 68-75 27%    
  Wed, Dec 31 126 @Florida Atlantic L 69-81 14%    
  Sat, Jan 3 157 @Temple L 73-82 21%    
  Wed, Jan 7 186 Charlotte L 70-71 45%    
  Sat, Jan 10 172 Tulane L 75-77 43%    
  Wed, Jan 14 217 Rice W 72-71 50%    
  Sun, Jan 18 75 @Memphis L 67-84 7%    
  Wed, Jan 21 145 @North Texas L 63-73 18%    
  Sat, Jan 24 157 Temple L 76-79 40%    
  Wed, Jan 28 112 UAB L 72-79 27%    
  Wed, Feb 4 79 @South Florida L 71-87 7%    
  Sat, Feb 7 145 North Texas L 66-70 37%    
  Wed, Feb 11 245 @East Carolina L 72-76 35%    
  Sun, Feb 15 186 @Charlotte L 67-74 26%    
  Wed, Feb 18 126 Florida Atlantic L 72-78 31%    
  Sun, Feb 22 91 @Tulsa L 66-81 10%    
  Wed, Feb 25 245 East Carolina W 75-73 55%    
  Sun, Mar 1 97 Wichita St. L 68-76 24%    
  Sun, Mar 8 217 @Rice L 69-75 31%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.8 0.1 3.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.7 0.2 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.2 0.6 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.2 2.2 4.7 1.4 0.1 8.5 9th
10th 0.3 2.4 5.6 2.8 0.2 11.2 10th
11th 0.3 2.7 6.5 4.3 0.6 0.0 14.5 11th
12th 0.1 1.0 4.4 7.5 5.4 0.9 0.0 19.3 12th
13th 1.4 4.3 7.8 8.0 4.4 0.8 0.0 26.8 13th
Total 1.4 4.4 8.8 12.7 14.9 15.3 13.4 11.0 7.5 5.0 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 62.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 9.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 6.9% 6.9% 13.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 5.1% 5.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.7% 5.1% 5.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 1.5
10-8 2.9% 1.4% 1.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 2.9
9-9 5.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0
8-10 7.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.5
7-11 11.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.0
6-12 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.4
5-13 15.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.3
4-14 14.9% 14.9
3-15 12.7% 12.7
2-16 8.8% 8.8
1-17 4.4% 4.4
0-18 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%