Tulane
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.9 174
Expected Predictive Rating +0.8 146
Pace 67.1 225
Improvement +3.2 58

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #174 C- D B A C
Defense C #179 C C- C+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 246 60% 122 -0.5 191
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 212 36% 237 -1.0 233
Three Pointers 45% 115 31% 294 +0.0 176
1st FG Attempt 0.99 219 -1.5 220
Second Chance 21.3% 354 1.15 48 0.24 325
Turnovers 14.9% 56
Freethrows 0.38 9 77% 28 0.29 5
Total Offense -0.6 174

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 236 56% 135 +1.6 120
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 199 38% 163 -0.1 200
Three Pointers 44% 98 35% 249 -2.3 292
1st FG Attempt 1.02 186 -0.8 208
Second Chance 33.9% 311 0.99 124 0.34 244
Turnovers 17.8% 121
Freethrows 0.32 233 70% 58 0.22 201
Total Defense -0.4 179

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.1 185 +0.0 166
Shot Type Accuracy -1.5 222 +0.3 197
Possession Length 16.7 120 18.2 308
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 271 0.17 168
Improvement -1.9 #291 +5.1 #11

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.2 13.7 14.5
.500 or above 56% 80% 48%
.500 or above in Conference 18% 39% 11%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UAB (Away) - 25.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 52 - 7
Quad 35 - 77 - 14
Quad 49 - 216 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 194 Samford W 85 - 72 66% +6  76% 1 - 0 B- +8 A +11 A+ F C+ C- -3 C F B+
 Sat, Nov 8 234 Texas St. W 79 - 71 72% -6  13% 2 - 0 C +1 B +6 C+ F B- D+ -5 C F D
 Tue, Nov 11 290 @Louisiana W 66 - 62 64% +3  73% 3 - 0 C -0 D+ -4 F+ C B B- +4 B F F
 Fri, Nov 14 225 New Orleans L 63 - 85 70% -11  0% 3 - 1 F -28 F -14 F F A+ F -16 F F B
 Fri, Nov 21 35 Utah St. L 75 - 96 9% -6  30% 3 - 2 D+ -7 B +7 A D B F -14 F C C-
 Sun, Nov 23 129 Boston College W 93 - 90 OT 39% +1  54% 4 - 2 B- +5 A +13 B A+ A+ D- -8 C- D D
 Fri, Nov 28 266 Nicholls St. W 82 - 72 78% +7  89% 5 - 2 C +1 C+ +3 B- F A C- -2 F B+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 285 Grambling St. W 65 - 63 81% +0  48% 6 - 2 D -8 D+ -3 F+ D A+ D+ -5 C- F B+
 Sat, Dec 6 72 Akron L 71 - 88 29% -8  11% 6 - 3 D- -12 D -5 F+ F+ A+ D -7 D D- A-
 Sat, Dec 13 139 UC San Diego L 67 - 93 42% -16  8% 6 - 4 F -25 F -13 D- F D- D- -9 D- D+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 223 Louisiana Tech W 61 - 53 70% +6  93% 7 - 4 C+ +2 D+ -3 F C+ A+ B+ +6 A B+ A-
 Sat, Dec 20 142 Portland St. W 63 - 61 54% +3  79% 8 - 4 C +0 D -5 F D F+ B +5 A D C
 Wed, Dec 31 252 @East Carolina W 79 - 70 54% +1  53% 9 - 4 1 - 0 B- +7 B+ +9 B- A- C- C -2 C- B F
 Sun, Jan 4 114 Florida Atlantic W 69 - 66 46% -1  28% 10 - 4 2 - 0 C+ +3 D -6 D C+ C+ A- +9 A- D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 350 @Texas San Antonio W 85 - 52 80% +19  92% 11 - 4 3 - 0 A+ +23 B +7 B- C- C+ A+ +17 A B A
 Wed, Jan 14 118 UAB L 69 - 82 47% -4  13% 11 - 5 3 - 1 D- -13 D -6 F+ B B D- -7 C- F B
 Sun, Jan 18 144 North Texas L 63 - 71 54% -6  6% 11 - 6 3 - 2 D -10 D -6 F+ D- A+ D+ -4 D B- A-
 Wed, Jan 21 114 @Florida Atlantic L 74 - 79 25% -6  5% 11 - 7 3 - 3 C +1 C +0 D C+ D+ C+ +1 F+ A D
 Fri, Jan 23 168 @Charlotte L 70 - 73 37% -5  19% 11 - 8 3 - 4 C -1 D -5 C- F B- B- +4 D- D A+
 Wed, Jan 28 62 South Florida L 83 - 97 26% -11  6% 11 - 9 3 - 5 D -8 B- +4 A+ F A F+ -11 B- F D
 Sun, Feb 1 86 @Memphis W 78 - 76 17% +5  88% 12 - 9 4 - 5 B+ +11 A +12 A+ D B C -1 A+ B- F+
 Sun, Feb 8 96 Wichita St. L 61 - 75 38% -6  12% 12 - 10 4 - 6 D- -12 F -14 F+ F D B- +3 D A+ A
 Wed, Feb 11 148 Temple W 77 - 66 55% +6  69% 13 - 10 5 - 6 B +9 C +1 B- A F+ A- +8 A+ B+ D+
 Sun, Feb 15 118 @UAB L 71 - 78 26%
 Wed, Feb 18 144 @North Texas L 63 - 68 32%
 Sun, Feb 22 220 Rice W 75 - 70 69%
 Wed, Feb 25 70 Tulsa L 74 - 80 29%
 Sun, Mar 1 62 @South Florida L 72 - 85 12%
 Thu, Mar 5 148 @Temple L 70 - 75 34%
 Sun, Mar 8 86 Memphis L 70 - 74 34%
Totals 15 - 15 7 - 11 -1 C -1 C- D B C +0 C C- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ C- D C- 36% 19% 45% C C- F B D B A- B+ A C C+ C C- C 37% 20% 44% C C D C+ C- C+ C- B C
1.08 60% 36% 31% -1 0 0.99 21% 1.1 .24 15% .38 77% .29 1.09 56% 38% 35% 0 0 1.02 34% 1.0 .34 18% .32 70% .27
Nov
3		 Samford A A- A+ A+ A+ 29% 29% 41% C- A+ F D F C+ F+ A+ C- C- B A F C- 25% 27% 48% A C F D F B+ B A A-
1.31 67% 60% 52% +20 -2 1.39 9% 1.0 .09 12% .23 92% .21 1.11 54% 29% 40% +1 -2 1.00 37% 1.1 .41 17% .31 59% .18
Nov
8		 Texas St. B C+ F A+ C+ 41% 14% 45% C+ C+ F F F B- A+ A+ A+ D+ A B F C 46% 25% 29% D C C- F F D B F C+
1.18 61% 0% 45% +4 +1 1.11 19% 0.0 .00 16% .54 100% .54 1.06 45% 33% 43% -3 0 0.96 32% 1.3 .41 16% .23 85% .20
Nov
11		 Louisiana D+ A+ F F F 54% 17% 29% C+ F+ F A+ C B A+ B+ A+ B- F B- A- B- 13% 31% 56% B B D- F F F F A+ D
1.03 73% 0% 17% -6 +2 0.93 19% 1.8 .35 16% .50 78% .39 0.97 67% 36% 28% -4 -3 0.87 31% 1.1 .33 13% .38 52% .20
Nov
14		 New Orleans F A A F F 36% 13% 51% C+ F F F F A+ A+ D+ A+ F A+ F F F 29% 17% 55% C- F D+ F F B F B F
0.96 69% 50% 9% -14 +1 0.76 21% 0.8 .15 8% .56 71% .40 1.29 42% 57% 57% +17 0 1.36 38% 1.3 .50 21% .54 71% .39
Nov
21		 Utah St. B F F A+ A+ 20% 22% 57% D A F A+ D B B- C+ B- F F F F F 34% 24% 42% A+ F C+ C C C- C+ B+ B-
1.09 30% 27% 50% +6 -2 1.10 16% 1.6 .25 19% .34 74% .25 1.40 76% 67% 52% +25 -1 1.50 36% 1.2 .44 15% .31 67% .20
Nov
23		 Boston College A A D F B 48% 24% 28% B- B D- A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ D- A- D+ D C- 33% 24% 43% C+ C- B- F D D F F F
1.18 69% 31% 20% -2 0 0.98 21% 2.1 .45 10% .51 72% .37 1.15 47% 43% 36% -1 -1 0.98 27% 1.3 .34 13% .52 78% .41
Nov
28		 Nicholls St. C+ B+ B B B- 42% 15% 44% C+ B- F F+ F A A F B- C- A- F F F 40% 19% 42% C F B- A+ B+ C- F A+ C
1.19 70% 43% 38% +8 +1 1.21 24% 0.9 .21 17% .44 68% .30 1.04 47% 67% 45% +8 0 1.19 24% 0.8 .18 16% .45 42% .19
Dec
2		 Grambling St. D+ D F C- F+ 38% 22% 40% D F+ D+ D D A+ B B B+ D+ F F+ A+ C- 26% 17% 57% B- C- D F F B+ F B- D-
1.05 53% 20% 33% -6 0 0.89 31% 0.9 .29 11% .38 76% .29 1.02 73% 43% 25% -3 0 0.95 32% 1.3 .43 24% .43 70% .30
Dec
6		 Akron D C A+ F F+ 25% 19% 56% D F+ F C F+ A+ B+ C B+ D B- F F D 32% 12% 56% C D F B D- A- D C- D
1.00 57% 55% 22% -7 -1 0.86 22% 1.0 .22 11% .35 73% .25 1.24 56% 50% 43% +8 +1 1.20 42% 1.2 .52 20% .30 76% .23
Dec
13		 UC San Diego F C+ C- F F+ 42% 25% 33% C D- F F+ F D- A- C- B+ D- D+ A+ F+ D 53% 5% 42% F D- F A D+ C- B- C- B-
0.86 58% 36% 16% -9 0 0.82 20% 0.9 .17 19% .35 68% .24 1.19 63% 0% 40% +4 +3 1.17 40% 0.8 .30 15% .24 69% .17
Dec
17		 Louisiana Tech D+ C A+ F F 28% 13% 59% C- F D+ A C+ A+ A+ B+ A+ B+ A- D A+ A+ 51% 16% 33% F A F A+ B+ A- F F F
1.04 55% 80% 13% -14 0 0.74 29% 1.3 .38 12% .60 77% .46 0.90 43% 43% 13% -17 +2 0.71 46% 0.5 .22 22% .39 78% .31
Dec
20		 Portland St. D F A+ F F 50% 18% 32% B F B+ F D F+ A+ A A+ B A+ F A+ A 40% 21% 38% B A C- F+ D C C A- B-
0.96 45% 50% 14% -13 +1 0.77 36% 0.6 .22 23% .59 83% .50 0.93 42% 60% 22% -8 0 0.85 32% 1.1 .35 20% .31 63% .19
Dec
31		 East Carolina B+ D- D A+ B 28% 28% 44% D- B- A- B- A- C- A+ F+ A+ C D A+ C- C- 43% 24% 33% C- C- D+ A B F C+ A B
1.20 50% 33% 47% +5 -2 1.09 38% 1.2 .47 18% .50 67% .33 1.06 61% 15% 33% -5 0 0.93 35% 0.8 .28 12% .33 63% .21
Jan
4		 Florida Atlantic D D+ F C+ D- 39% 19% 43% C- D D A+ C+ C+ D- A D+ A- B+ F A+ A- 28% 26% 46% A A- F B D+ A+ C+ A+ B+
0.99 52% 10% 35% -7 0 0.89 22% 1.4 .30 16% .26 80% .20 0.95 50% 62% 22% -4 -1 0.90 41% 1.0 .41 26% .29 60% .17
Jan
10		 Texas San Antonio B D F A B- 22% 12% 66% D+ B- F A+ C- C+ F A+ F A+ C A+ B+ A 33% 27% 40% B+ A B B- B A F A+ D
1.24 54% 29% 41% +5 0 1.12 28% 1.4 .39 15% .12 86% .10 0.76 53% 8% 28% -13 -1 0.73 26% 0.8 .21 23% .36 58% .21
Jan
14		 UAB D D+ A- F F 40% 13% 47% B+ F+ D A+ B B A- C- B+ D- B- A F C- 55% 28% 17% C- C- F D- F B C+ F F+
0.99 55% 43% 23% -8 +1 0.87 21% 1.5 .32 14% .32 74% .23 1.17 55% 27% 44% -2 0 0.98 44% 1.2 .53 14% .30 94% .28
Jan
18		 North Texas D F F B- F+ 25% 23% 52% D F+ F B D- A+ A+ B+ A+ D+ A- C F D 47% 13% 40% D+ D F A+ B- A- F F F
0.94 36% 10% 35% -11 -1 0.77 21% 1.1 .24 16% .59 76% .44 1.06 48% 33% 39% -2 +2 1.00 44% 0.6 .28 22% .52 81% .42
Jan
21		 Florida Atlantic C D- D+ C+ D+ 45% 26% 30% D D F+ A+ C+ D+ A+ A+ A+ C+ B- F F D- 51% 15% 34% F+ F+ A+ F A D F A+ F+
1.04 48% 33% 36% -5 0 0.91 19% 1.5 .29 18% .46 85% .39 1.11 54% 57% 44% +6 +2 1.17 20% 1.3 .27 15% .48 59% .28
Jan
23		 Charlotte D B A+ F C- 36% 23% 40% C- C- F A+ F B- A A+ A+ B- F A+ C D 45% 9% 45% D- D- D+ D+ D A+ C- C- C-
1.03 65% 55% 21% -1 -1 0.98 7% 2.0 .14 13% .41 83% .34 1.07 80% 0% 35% +7 +2 1.20 37% 1.0 .37 25% .35 72% .26
Jan
28		 South Florida B- A C A A+ 29% 14% 57% B- A+ F F F A B+ D+ B- F+ D+ B- A C+ 44% 12% 44% B- B- D- F F D F B- F
1.10 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 21% 0.1 .03 15% .37 67% .25 1.28 61% 33% 26% -4 +2 0.96 44% 1.6 .69 13% .53 71% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Memphis A C A+ A A+ 41% 9% 50% A A+ F A+ D B A+ A- A+ C C+ D A+ A+ 35% 26% 39% B A+ F+ A+ B- F+ F F F
1.13 58% 50% 39% +5 +2 1.15 14% 1.5 .21 19% .46 77% .36 1.10 56% 42% 17% -10 -1 0.80 43% 0.9 .38 16% .65 84% .55
Feb
8		 Wichita St. F B+ F F F 45% 20% 35% B+ F+ F F F D A+ A+ A+ B- D+ F B D- 42% 16% 42% D+ D B A+ A+ A C- A+ B
0.84 64% 10% 18% -12 0 0.80 16% 0.7 .11 19% .41 83% .34 1.03 61% 56% 30% +2 +1 1.07 36% 0.6 .21 21% .33 53% .17
Feb
11		 Temple C B- A+ F C+ 49% 13% 38% B+ B- D+ A+ A F+ A+ D A+ A- A C+ A+ A+ 40% 16% 44% D+ A+ C A B+ D+ F+ B- D-
1.13 63% 60% 27% +1 +2 1.08 27% 1.6 .43 19% .73 68% .49 0.97 45% 38% 23% -13 +1 0.78 29% 0.8 .21 12% .45 74% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.5 0.3 0.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 0.1 1.9 5th
6th 1.5 1.8 3.3 6th
7th 0.5 4.7 0.6 5.8 7th
8th 0.2 5.2 5.1 0.0 10.5 8th
9th 0.2 6.7 14.2 1.2 22.3 9th
10th 0.1 4.9 17.0 4.8 0.0 26.8 10th
11th 3.7 14.6 6.8 0.2 25.3 11th
12th 1.6 1.2 0.1 2.9 12th
13th 13th
Total 5.5 20.9 30.7 24.9 12.6 4.7 0.8 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 12.0 0.0 0.8
10-8 4.7% 1.7% 1.7% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.7
9-9 12.6% 1.1% 1.1% 13.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.5
8-10 24.9% 0.8% 0.8% 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 24.7
7-11 30.7% 0.6% 0.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 30.5
6-12 20.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.0 0.1 20.8
5-13 5.5% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 5.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 14.2 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.9%