Rice
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.1 220
Expected Predictive Rating -3.2 218
Pace 64.5 292
Improvement +3.7 47

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #157 D+ C+ C- C- F+
Defense D+ #278 C- C- C- D+ A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 26% 364 55% 242 -7.7 360
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 40 36% 249 +2.5 62
Three Pointers 45% 106 35% 140 +2.5 97
1st FG Attempt 0.97 260 -2.7 260
Second Chance 36.1% 42 0.91 319 0.33 131
Turnovers 17.7% 230
Freethrows 0.30 201 68% 314 0.21 243
Total Offense +0.1 157

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 311 65% 338 +0.5 153
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 14 33% 29 -1.7 311
Three Pointers 38% 267 36% 294 +0.1 173
1st FG Attempt 1.04 216 -1.1 217
Second Chance 32.7% 273 1.00 138 0.33 228
Turnovers 15.9% 236
Freethrows 0.33 263 74% 279 0.24 277
Total Defense -3.2 278

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.9 353 -1.4 19
Shot Type Accuracy -0.7 199 +2.5 281
Possession Length 18.2 268 17.2 165
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 126 0.21 306
Improvement +4.3 #12 -0.6 #227

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.8 16.0
.500 or above 1% 1% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 20% 27% 5%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: East Carolina (Home) - 67.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 34 - 75 - 14
Quad 47 - 412 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 80 @Oregon L 63 - 67 12% -0  47% 0 - 1 B- +6 D -5 D- C F A +10 A+ C+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 105 Stephen F. Austin L 69 - 81 33% -8  1% 0 - 2 D -11 C- -2 D F+ A D- -9 D- C B-
 Fri, Nov 14 300 East Texas A&M W 71 - 64 78% +2  48% 1 - 2 C- -4 D+ -3 B C F C -1 D+ C B
 Mon, Nov 17 18 @Tennessee L 66 - 91 2% -12  0% 1 - 3 C- -4 C+ +3 C- D+ B D- -8 C F D
 Thu, Nov 20 214 Tarleton St. L 74 - 90 61% -3  42% 1 - 4 F -22 D- -6 D F A F -15 F A D
 Mon, Nov 24 154 Kennesaw St. L 84 - 89 OT 38% +1  54% 1 - 5 D+ -5 D+ -3 C C- D- C -2 C- C+ C-
 Tue, Nov 25 243 @Florida Gulf Coast L 63 - 78 OT 44% +4  83% 1 - 6 F+ -17 F -21 F D- F B+ +6 B- A- B
 Wed, Nov 26 337 Oral Roberts W 81 - 62 79% +10  91% 2 - 6 B- +8 A +11 A- A+ D+ C -1 B+ F C
 Wed, Dec 3 234 Texas St. W 77 - 72 65% +2  63% 3 - 6 C- -2 C+ +3 F A+ C- D+ -4 D+ A D-
 Sat, Dec 13 141 Arkansas St. W 77 - 76 45% -7  1% 4 - 6 C -1 C +2 D+ C- A+ C- -2 D- A F+
 Sat, Dec 20 291 @Pepperdine L 62 - 84 56% -8  5% 4 - 7 F -27 F -14 F C D+ F -12 F F+ A-
 Wed, Dec 31 70 @Tulsa L 48 - 97 10% -16  0% 4 - 8 0 - 1 F -38 F -22 F F D F -20 F C+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 86 Memphis L 70 - 76 27% +1  45% 4 - 9 0 - 2 C- -3 B- +5 C- B+ C- D- -8 A+ F B+
 Wed, Jan 7 96 @Wichita St. W 66 - 64 14% +2  59% 5 - 9 1 - 2 B +10 C +1 B- D B- A- +9 A+ A+ F+
 Sun, Jan 11 168 Charlotte L 73 - 74 52% -5  5% 5 - 10 1 - 3 C- -5 C- -0 D- D C- D+ -4 F A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 14 350 @Texas San Antonio W 89 - 73 74% +11  100% 6 - 10 2 - 3 B- +6 A+ +21 A+ C+ C+ F -13 D- F D-
 Wed, Jan 21 148 Temple L 65 - 69 47% -0  40% 6 - 11 2 - 4 D+ -6 D+ -4 D+ B D C- -3 B F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 24 70 Tulsa L 81 - 87 22% -13  0% 6 - 12 2 - 5 C -1 B+ +9 A+ A- F+ F+ -10 B F C
 Wed, Jan 28 252 @East Carolina W 83 - 77 46% +7  95% 7 - 12 3 - 5 C+ +4 B+ +8 B+ B- D+ D+ -4 C D+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 168 @Charlotte L 70 - 80 30% -6  9% 7 - 13 3 - 6 D+ -8 B- +4 F A+ D+ F -13 F B- C-
 Wed, Feb 4 144 North Texas W 86 - 83 2OT 45% -1  39% 8 - 13 4 - 6 C +1 C+ +3 D- A F C- -3 C+ B- F+
 Sun, Feb 8 118 @UAB L 65 - 71 20% +1  62% 8 - 14 4 - 7 C -0 D+ -3 F+ B- C B- +3 C+ C D+
 Wed, Feb 11 114 Florida Atlantic W 81 - 73 38% +7  92% 9 - 14 5 - 7 B +8 B +6 B C- A+ C+ +2 A+ C+ F+
 Sat, Feb 14 252 East Carolina W 75 - 70 68%
 Sun, Feb 22 174 @Tulane L 70 - 75 31%
 Wed, Feb 25 62 South Florida L 74 - 83 20%
 Sun, Mar 1 148 @Temple L 69 - 76 26%
 Wed, Mar 4 144 @North Texas L 62 - 69 26%
 Sun, Mar 8 350 Texas San Antonio W 81 - 68 88%
Totals 12 - 17 8 - 10 -3 C +0 D+ C+ C- D+ -3 C- C- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- C- C+ C- 26% 29% 45% F+ D+ B D C+ C- C D C- D+ D- B+ D D+ 33% 29% 38% A- C- D+ C+ C- C- D+ D+ D+
1.09 55% 36% 35% -1 -2 0.97 36% 0.9 .33 18% .30 68% .21 1.13 65% 33% 36% +2 -1 1.04 33% 1.0 .33 16% .33 74% .22
Nov
7		 Oregon D F F A+ D 25% 30% 45% D D- B D C F D- D+ D- A B+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 18% 55% B+ A+ F+ A C+ B- F B- F
0.95 23% 31% 42% -5 -2 0.87 34% 0.8 .27 21% .21 73% .15 1.01 50% 14% 24% -15 -1 0.71 42% 0.9 .39 18% .70 68% .48
Nov
11		 Stephen F. Austin C- F F A+ C- 28% 43% 28% F D B F F+ A A+ D- A+ D- F C+ F F 24% 33% 43% A- D- A+ F C B- F F F
1.02 38% 30% 46% -4 -4 0.87 34% 0.6 .20 12% .57 68% .39 1.20 67% 38% 43% +8 -3 1.12 23% 1.4 .32 15% .40 74% .30
Nov
14		 East Texas A&M D+ F D+ A+ B 44% 13% 42% C+ B B+ F+ C F C- A+ B- C F F A F+ 33% 37% 31% A+ D+ B D- C B C A- C+
1.07 45% 33% 53% +5 +1 1.16 38% 0.9 .34 27% .31 80% .25 0.97 69% 44% 27% +3 -2 1.02 21% 1.0 .21 21% .25 62% .15
Nov
17		 Tennessee C+ F+ B- D C 26% 26% 48% D C- A- F D+ B A+ A- A+ D- D B+ B- C+ 52% 12% 36% F C D- F+ F D C F D
0.96 46% 38% 29% -6 -2 0.86 33% 0.6 .19 16% .43 72% .31 1.33 65% 33% 33% +3 +2 1.12 51% 1.2 .63 16% .38 77% .29
Nov
20		 Tarleton St. D- A- F B- D+ 24% 27% 49% F D C- F F A B- F F F F C- D- F 50% 34% 16% C+ F B- A+ A D F+ C F+
0.99 69% 27% 37% +2 -2 1.02 30% 0.5 .15 19% .40 46% .18 1.21 84% 41% 38% +15 -1 1.30 29% 0.8 .21 17% .41 76% .31
Nov
24		 Kennesaw St. D+ F+ B+ B C+ 33% 29% 38% F C B- F C- D- A+ F A C C+ A+ F+ C- 40% 17% 43% B- C- D B+ C+ C- F F+ F
1.04 44% 44% 38% 0 -2 0.98 34% 0.8 .27 19% .58 63% .37 1.10 54% 20% 38% -2 +1 1.00 39% 0.8 .32 16% .44 77% .34
Nov
25		 Florida Gulf Coast F C+ C- F F 39% 20% 41% C- F F B- D- F D+ F F+ B+ B A+ F B 34% 30% 36% C+ B- B- A A- B F C F
0.79 62% 36% 14% -11 0 0.80 21% 1.1 .23 24% .33 65% .21 0.98 53% 20% 44% -1 -2 0.96 28% 0.8 .23 20% .52 73% .38
Nov
26		 Oral Roberts A F A+ A+ A+ 37% 27% 37% F A- A A+ A+ D+ F A+ D+ C A+ F A A- 37% 14% 49% C B+ F+ F F C A+ A+ A+
1.31 44% 54% 56% +11 -1 1.22 43% 1.4 .61 16% .23 92% .21 1.00 39% 57% 25% -11 +1 0.82 33% 1.4 .45 18% .20 60% .12
Dec
3		 Texas St. C+ A+ D+ F F+ 23% 27% 50% F F A A+ A+ C- A+ B A+ D+ F+ B- D- D- 35% 44% 21% A+ D+ F+ A+ A D- D- B- D
1.13 80% 33% 23% -5 -2 0.89 39% 1.3 .50 19% .53 76% .40 1.06 67% 35% 36% +2 -3 1.00 38% 0.5 .18 16% .33 74% .25
Dec
13		 Arkansas St. C D- F A+ C- 35% 25% 40% D+ D+ C+ D- C- A+ B F+ C C- F C- A F 37% 33% 31% A+ D- B A+ A F+ C- A+ B
1.12 53% 14% 45% -1 -1 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 10% .37 65% .24 1.10 83% 38% 27% +6 -2 1.10 34% 0.8 .26 16% .33 63% .21
Dec
20		 Pepperdine F F D F F 51% 13% 36% B- F A- F+ C D+ A+ D A F B- B+ F F 31% 20% 49% C F F+ D F+ A- C D- D+
0.88 42% 33% 18% -18 +2 0.70 40% 0.9 .36 18% .38 68% .26 1.19 53% 30% 54% +12 -1 1.24 34% 1.0 .34 23% .29 81% .24
Dec
31		 Tulsa F D- F F F 24% 31% 45% F F C+ F F D B F C- F F A+ F F 53% 14% 33% C F F A+ C+ C A+ D A+
0.74 50% 20% 23% -15 -2 0.67 27% 0.6 .16 18% .32 59% .19 1.49 74% 14% 71% +24 +2 1.53 44% 0.9 .40 15% .22 83% .18
Jan
3		 Memphis B- B+ F D+ D+ 22% 12% 66% C+ C- B+ B B+ C- A+ A- A+ D- D- A+ A+ A 37% 34% 29% A A+ F F F B+ F F F
1.07 67% 0% 30% -7 0 0.88 38% 1.0 .38 21% .59 77% .45 1.16 67% 14% 25% -9 -2 0.80 45% 1.8 .83 23% .60 87% .52
Jan
7		 Wichita St. C C- A+ F A- 22% 45% 33% F B- C- F D B- C+ F C- A- A+ A+ C A+ 39% 27% 34% B+ A+ A- A+ A+ F+ F F F
1.02 55% 59% 25% +4 -4 1.02 27% 0.7 .19 15% .29 63% .18 0.99 41% 17% 33% -13 -1 0.75 33% 0.7 .22 11% .54 77% .42
Jan
11		 Charlotte C- B- D C C- 18% 41% 41% F D- A+ F D C- A+ A+ A+ D+ F C F F 31% 21% 49% A- F A A+ A+ B- F A+ F
1.13 63% 33% 33% -1 -4 0.91 43% 0.6 .26 15% .55 80% .44 1.15 83% 38% 47% +18 -1 1.36 27% 0.6 .17 20% .52 59% .31
Jan
14		 Texas San Antonio A+ B- B A+ A+ 18% 16% 66% F+ A+ C+ C C+ C+ A D B+ F D+ F C+ F+ 28% 20% 52% B- D- F C F D- C+ F D
1.44 63% 43% 55% +23 -1 1.45 39% 1.1 .43 15% .36 68% .25 1.19 57% 50% 31% 0 -1 1.00 43% 0.9 .37 15% .25 85% .21
Jan
21		 Temple D+ F C+ A+ C 37% 35% 29% F D+ C+ B+ B D F C F C- C+ C D+ C- 23% 48% 29% A+ B D F F+ F+ A- D- B
1.06 44% 41% 43% 0 -2 0.98 31% 1.2 .38 18% .14 71% .10 1.13 55% 39% 36% +1 -5 0.94 32% 1.2 .38 10% .31 82% .25
Jan
24		 Tulsa B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 31% 45% F A+ A+ D A- F+ C- F D F+ D+ A+ D- B- 38% 21% 42% A+ B F+ F F C F C+ F
1.22 67% 47% 45% +13 -2 1.22 41% 1.0 .41 20% .26 64% .17 1.31 61% 20% 40% +1 0 1.04 38% 1.8 .68 15% .50 79% .39
Jan
28		 East Carolina B+ A C A A 21% 28% 51% F+ B+ B- C B- D+ A+ F A D+ F+ A+ A+ C+ 43% 24% 33% C- C C+ F+ D+ F F F F
1.18 70% 38% 42% +9 -2 1.15 34% 1.2 .40 19% .44 60% .26 1.10 65% 23% 22% -6 0 0.89 31% 1.2 .37 13% .43 88% .38
Jan
30		 Charlotte B- D- D F F 8% 38% 54% F F A+ A- A+ D+ A C+ A F D+ F F F 28% 33% 38% A+ F D A B- C- F D F
1.15 50% 33% 23% -11 -4 0.71 54% 1.3 .71 16% .41 71% .29 1.31 64% 46% 53% +16 -2 1.28 38% 0.7 .28 18% .64 75% .48
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 North Texas C+ A+ F D D+ 13% 37% 50% F D- A+ D+ A F B+ C- B C- F C+ A+ D+ 31% 41% 28% A+ C+ D A B- F+ D B- D+
1.07 71% 25% 30% -6 -4 0.81 51% 1.0 .49 27% .44 69% .31 1.03 79% 32% 18% -3 -3 0.90 37% 0.8 .29 14% .39 67% .26
Feb
8		 UAB D+ C C+ F D- 22% 30% 48% F F+ A D- B- C F+ F F B- D+ A+ C+ C+ 37% 25% 38% B- C+ C- B- C D+ D A C
0.98 58% 38% 27% -5 -2 0.87 37% 0.8 .28 17% .18 50% .09 1.07 63% 23% 30% -4 -1 0.92 34% 1.0 .34 11% .35 62% .22
Feb
11		 Florida Atlantic B A+ C+ D- B+ 31% 22% 47% D- B D B+ C- A+ C F D C+ C C+ A+ A- 26% 44% 30% A+ A+ D+ B C+ F+ F C- F
1.16 78% 38% 30% +3 -1 1.07 22% 1.1 .24 7% .31 60% .19 1.05 57% 42% 19% -5 -4 0.83 36% 1.0 .36 14% .42 72% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 0.2 0.2 0.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 0.1 1.4 5th
6th 1.4 1.5 0.0 3.0 6th
7th 0.5 5.4 0.8 6.7 7th
8th 0.2 6.4 6.7 0.1 13.3 8th
9th 0.2 7.4 18.2 2.0 27.7 9th
10th 3.6 17.3 6.5 0.1 27.5 10th
11th 0.5 8.4 7.8 0.3 17.0 11th
12th 0.9 1.8 0.2 2.9 12th
13th 13th
Total 1.4 13.9 32.8 31.9 15.8 3.8 0.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.5% 2.1% 2.1% 13.0 0.0 0.5
10-8 3.8% 1.3% 1.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
9-9 15.8% 0.3% 0.3% 14.8 0.0 0.0 15.7
8-10 31.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 31.8
7-11 32.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 32.8
6-12 13.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.9
5-13 1.4% 1.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%