Rice
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -3.6 222
Results Rating -3.6 230
Consistency 0.17 275
Pace 64.7 278
Improvement +2.4 102

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 168 D+ C C- C- F+
Defense D+ 277 C- C- C- D+ A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 26% 364 C- 57% 205 -7.5 360
2 Pt. Jumpers 44% 106 D+ 36% 258 +2.3 65
Three Pointers 45% 92 C+ 35% 134 +2.9 81
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ -1.8 348 C -0.5 187
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 253
Second Chance B 34.7% 59 D 0.92 323 C 0.32 153
Opponents' Steals D+ 10.3% 269
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 207
Turnovers C- 17.7% 250
Freethrows C 0.30 198 D+ 70% 265 C- 0.21 220
Total Offense C -0.2 168

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D+ 43% 276 B- 9.0% 78
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 11% 352 D- 8.0% 329
Three Pointers C 83% 208 C- 1.0% 234
Total D+ 50% 293 C+ 5.1% 127


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 314 D- 64% 330 -1.0 130
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 20 B 35% 62 +1.9 326
Three Pointers 39% 256 D 37% 313 +0.7 216
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- -1.3 20 D +2.9 295
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 230
Second Chance D+ 32.1% 260 C 1.02 155 C- 0.33 230
Turnovers from Steals C 9.7% 170
Other Turnovers D 6.3% 308
Turnovers C- 16.0% 223
Freethrows D+ 0.33 272 D+ 74% 286 D+ 0.25 286
Total Defense D+ -3.5 277

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 162 C- 10.4% 199
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 19% 69 A- 9.4% 21
Three Pointers C 83% 153 C+ 1.2% 106
Total C+ 53% 120 B- 6.6% 101

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.1 258 17.2 165
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 146 0.20 270
Consistency 0.14 280 0.10 48
Improvement +3.7 39 -1.3 256

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 251 227 202
Results Rating Rank 244 230 198
Conference Record 6 - 12 7 - 11 8 - 10
Conference Finish 11 10 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: North Texas (Away) - 21.5% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 34 - 66 - 13
Quad 46 - 612 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 82 @Oregon L 63 - 67 11% -0  47% 0 - 1 B- +6 D+ -3 D C F+ A +9 A+ C C+
 Tue, Nov 11 100 Stephen F. Austin L 69 - 81 30% -8  1% 0 - 2 D -10 D+ -3 D- F+ A F+ -8 F+ C+ B-
 Fri, Nov 14 307 East Texas A&M W 71 - 64 78% +2  48% 1 - 2 C- -5 D+ -4 B C- F C -0 D+ C+ B+
 Mon, Nov 17 13 @Tennessee L 66 - 91 2% -12  0% 1 - 3 C- -3 B- +4 C- C- B- D- -8 C- F C-
 Thu, Nov 20 219 Tarleton St. L 74 - 90 61% -3  42% 1 - 4 F -23 D- -7 D F B+ F -15 F A- D
 Mon, Nov 24 157 Kennesaw St. L 84 - 89 OT 36% +1  54% 1 - 5 D+ -5 D+ -3 C- C- D C -1 C+ C C-
 Tue, Nov 25 269 @Florida Gulf Coast L 63 - 78 OT 48% +4  83% 1 - 6 F -18 F -22 F F+ F B+ +6 B- B+ B+
 Wed, Nov 26 318 Oral Roberts W 81 - 62 72% +10  91% 2 - 6 B +9 A +12 A A+ D+ C -0 A- F C-
 Wed, Dec 3 232 Texas St. W 77 - 72 63% +2  63% 3 - 6 C- -2 C+ +2 F A+ C- D+ -4 C- A D
 Sat, Dec 13 146 Arkansas St. W 77 - 76 44% -7  1% 4 - 6 C -1 C +1 D+ C- A C- -2 D- A F+
 Sat, Dec 20 270 @Pepperdine L 62 - 84 48% -8  5% 4 - 7 F -25 F -16 F C D F+ -9 F D- A
 Wed, Dec 31 65 @Tulsa L 48 - 97 8% -16  0% 4 - 8 0 - 1 F -37 F -21 F F D F -19 F C C+
 Sat, Jan 3 119 Memphis L 70 - 76 36% +1  45% 4 - 9 0 - 2 D+ -6 C+ +3 D B+ C- F+ -9 A F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 91 @Wichita St. W 66 - 64 12% +2  59% 5 - 9 1 - 2 B +11 C +2 B D C+ A +10 A+ A+ F+
 Sun, Jan 11 169 Charlotte L 73 - 74 50% -5  5% 5 - 10 1 - 3 C- -5 C- -1 D- D C- D+ -4 F A+ B-
 Wed, Jan 14 334 @Texas San Antonio W 89 - 73 69% +11  100% 6 - 10 2 - 3 B- +7 A+ +21 A+ C+ C+ F -12 D- F+ D
 Wed, Jan 21 166 Temple L 65 - 69 50% -0  40% 6 - 11 2 - 4 D+ -8 D -4 D+ B D- D+ -4 B F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 24 65 Tulsa L 81 - 87 18% -13  0% 6 - 12 2 - 5 C -0 B+ +9 A+ A- F+ F+ -9 B F C
 Wed, Jan 28 233 @East Carolina W 83 - 77 40% +7  95% 7 - 12 3 - 5 B- +5 B+ +8 B+ B- D+ D+ -3 C+ D+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 169 @Charlotte L 70 - 80 28% -6  9% 7 - 13 3 - 6 D+ -8 C+ +3 F A+ D F -12 F B- C
 Wed, Feb 4 134 North Texas W 86 - 83 2OT 41% -1  39% 8 - 13 4 - 6 C +2 C+ +3 F+ A+ F C -1 C+ B D-
 Sun, Feb 8 123 @UAB L 65 - 71 19% +1  62% 8 - 14 4 - 7 C -0 D+ -2 F+ B- C C+ +2 C+ C- D+
 Wed, Feb 11 126 Florida Atlantic W 81 - 73 38% +7  92% 9 - 14 5 - 7 B- +8 B +7 B C- A+ C+ +1 A+ C- D-
 Sat, Feb 14 233 East Carolina L 75 - 85 63% -6  12% 9 - 15 5 - 8 F+ -17 C +1 F+ B- A- F -19 F F F
 Sun, Feb 22 184 @Tulane L 75 - 81 32% -5  20% 9 - 16 5 - 9 C- -5 C+ +2 C+ F B- D- -7 F F C+
 Wed, Feb 25 54 South Florida L 56 - 75 15% -12  0% 9 - 17 5 - 10 D- -12 F -15 B- F F B +4 A- A C-
 Sun, Mar 1 166 @Temple W 80 - 74 28% +0  46% 10 - 17 6 - 10 B +8 A- +10 B+ A+ B+ C -1 D- B- B-
 Wed, Mar 4 134 @North Texas L 63 - 71 21%
 Sun, Mar 8 334 Texas San Antonio W 81 - 70 86%
Totals 11 - 18 7 - 11 -4 C +0 F+ C F+ D+ -3 C+ D+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- D+ C+ C 26% 44% 45% F+ D+ B D C C- C D+ C- D+ D- B D D 33% 28% 39% A- C- D+ C C- C- D+ D+ D+
1.08 57% 36% 35% 0 -2 0.97 35% 0.9 .32 18% .30 70% .21 1.14 64% 35% 37% +3 -1 1.05 32% 1.0 .33 16% .33 74% .22
Nov
7		 Oregon D+ F F+ A+ D+ 25% 30% 45% D D B D C F+ D D+ D- A B+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 18% 55% A- A+ F A C C+ F B+ F
0.95 23% 31% 42% -5 -2 0.87 34% 0.8 .27 21% .21 73% .15 1.01 50% 14% 24% -15 -1 0.71 42% 0.9 .39 18% .70 68% .48
Nov
11		 Stephen F. Austin D+ F F A+ C- 28% 43% 28% F D- B F F+ A A+ F+ A+ F+ F C F F 24% 33% 43% A- F+ A+ F C+ B- F F+ F
1.02 38% 30% 46% -4 -4 0.87 34% 0.6 .20 12% .57 68% .39 1.20 67% 38% 43% +8 -3 1.12 23% 1.4 .32 15% .40 74% .30
Nov
14		 East Texas A&M D+ F D A+ B 44% 13% 42% C+ B B F C- F C A B- C F F+ A F+ 33% 37% 31% A+ D+ B D C+ B+ C- B C
1.07 45% 33% 53% +5 +1 1.16 38% 0.9 .34 27% .31 80% .25 0.97 69% 44% 27% +2 -2 1.02 21% 1.0 .21 21% .25 62% .15
Nov
17		 Tennessee B- F+ B- D C 26% 26% 48% D C- A- F C- B- A+ A- A+ D- D B+ C+ C 52% 12% 36% F C- D- F+ F C- D+ F D-
0.96 46% 38% 29% -6 -2 0.86 33% 0.6 .19 16% .43 72% .31 1.33 65% 33% 33% +3 +2 1.12 51% 1.2 .63 16% .38 77% .29
Nov
20		 Tarleton St. D- A- F B- D+ 24% 27% 49% F D D+ F F B+ C+ F F F F D+ D- F 50% 34% 16% C+ F B- A+ A- D F C- F
0.99 69% 27% 37% +2 -2 1.02 30% 0.5 .15 19% .40 46% .18 1.21 84% 41% 38% +15 -1 1.30 29% 0.8 .21 17% .41 76% .31
Nov
24		 Kennesaw St. D+ F B B C 33% 29% 38% F C- B F C- D A+ F A- C C+ A+ D- C 40% 17% 43% B- C+ D- B+ C C- F F F
1.04 44% 44% 38% 0 -2 0.98 34% 0.8 .27 19% .58 63% .37 1.10 54% 20% 38% -2 +1 1.00 39% 0.8 .32 16% .44 77% .34
Nov
25		 Florida Gulf Coast F B- D+ F F 39% 20% 41% C- F F C F+ F D+ F D- B+ B A+ F C+ 34% 30% 36% B- B- B- A+ B+ B+ F C F
0.79 62% 36% 14% -11 0 0.80 21% 1.1 .23 24% .33 65% .21 0.98 53% 20% 44% -2 -2 0.96 28% 0.8 .23 20% .52 73% .38
Nov
26		 Oral Roberts A F A+ A+ A+ 37% 27% 37% F A A A+ A+ D+ F A+ C- C A+ F A+ A 37% 14% 49% C- A- F+ F F C- A+ A+ A+
1.31 44% 54% 56% +11 -1 1.22 43% 1.4 .61 16% .23 92% .21 1.00 39% 57% 25% -11 +1 0.82 33% 1.4 .45 18% .20 60% .12
Dec
3		 Texas St. C+ A+ D+ F F 23% 27% 50% F F A A+ A+ C- A+ B A+ D+ F+ B D- D- 35% 44% 21% A+ C- F+ A+ A D D- B- D
1.13 80% 33% 23% -5 -2 0.89 39% 1.3 .50 19% .53 76% .40 1.06 67% 35% 36% +2 -3 1.00 38% 0.5 .18 16% .33 74% .25
Dec
13		 Arkansas St. C D- F A+ C- 35% 25% 40% D+ D+ C+ D- C- A B D- C+ C- F C- A F 37% 33% 31% A+ D- B A+ A F+ C A+ B+
1.12 53% 14% 45% -1 -1 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 10% .37 65% .24 1.10 83% 38% 27% +6 -2 1.10 34% 0.8 .26 16% .33 63% .21
Dec
20		 Pepperdine F F D F F 51% 13% 36% B- F B+ F C D A+ D A F+ B- A- F F 31% 20% 49% C+ F D- D+ D- A C D- D+
0.88 42% 33% 18% -18 +2 0.70 40% 0.9 .36 18% .38 68% .26 1.19 53% 30% 54% +12 -1 1.24 34% 1.0 .34 23% .29 81% .24
Dec
31		 Tulsa F D- F F F 24% 31% 45% F F C+ F F D B+ F C F F A+ F F 53% 14% 33% C- F F A+ C C+ A+ D A
0.74 50% 20% 23% -15 -2 0.67 27% 0.6 .16 18% .32 59% .19 1.49 74% 14% 71% +23 +2 1.53 44% 0.9 .40 15% .22 83% .18
Jan
3		 Memphis C+ B+ F D D 22% 12% 66% C+ D B B B+ C- A+ B A+ F+ D- A+ A+ A 37% 34% 29% A- A F F F A- F F F
1.07 67% 0% 30% -7 0 0.88 38% 1.0 .38 21% .59 77% .45 1.16 67% 14% 25% -9 -2 0.80 45% 1.8 .83 23% .60 87% .52
Jan
7		 Wichita St. C C- A+ F A- 22% 45% 33% F B C F D C+ C+ F+ C- A A+ A+ C A+ 39% 27% 34% B- A+ A A+ A+ F+ F F F
1.02 55% 59% 25% +4 -4 1.02 27% 0.7 .19 15% .29 63% .18 0.99 41% 17% 33% -13 -1 0.75 33% 0.7 .22 11% .54 77% .42
Jan
11		 Charlotte C- B- D+ C- C- 18% 41% 41% F D- A+ F D C- A+ A+ A+ D+ F C- F F 31% 21% 49% A- F A- A+ A+ B- F A+ F
1.13 63% 33% 33% -2 -4 0.91 43% 0.6 .26 15% .55 80% .44 1.15 83% 38% 47% +17 -1 1.36 27% 0.6 .17 20% .52 59% .31
Jan
14		 Texas San Antonio A+ B- B A+ A+ 18% 16% 66% D- A+ B- C C+ C+ A D A- F D+ F C+ F+ 28% 20% 52% B- D- F B F+ D C+ F D
1.44 63% 43% 55% +22 -1 1.45 39% 1.1 .43 15% .36 68% .25 1.19 57% 50% 31% 0 -1 1.00 43% 0.9 .37 15% .25 85% .21
Jan
21		 Temple D F C+ A+ C- 37% 35% 29% F D+ C+ A- B D- F C- F D+ B- C D+ C 23% 48% 29% A+ B D F F+ F+ B+ F B-
1.06 44% 41% 43% 0 -2 0.98 31% 1.2 .38 18% .14 71% .10 1.13 55% 39% 36% 0 -5 0.94 32% 1.2 .38 10% .31 82% .25
Jan
24		 Tulsa B+ B+ A A+ A+ 24% 31% 45% F A+ A+ D- A- F+ C F D+ F+ D+ A+ D- B- 38% 21% 42% A B F+ F F C F C+ F
1.22 67% 47% 45% +12 -2 1.22 41% 1.0 .41 20% .26 64% .17 1.31 61% 20% 40% +1 0 1.04 38% 1.8 .68 15% .50 79% .39
Jan
28		 East Carolina B+ A C A A 21% 28% 51% F+ B+ B- C B- D+ A+ F A D+ F+ A+ A+ B- 43% 24% 33% D+ C+ C+ F+ D+ F F F F
1.18 70% 38% 42% +9 -2 1.15 34% 1.2 .40 19% .44 60% .26 1.10 65% 23% 22% -6 0 0.89 31% 1.2 .37 13% .43 88% .38
Jan
30		 Charlotte C+ F+ D+ F F 8% 38% 54% F F A+ A A+ D A C+ A F D+ F F F 28% 33% 38% A+ F D- A B- C F D+ F
1.15 50% 33% 23% -11 -4 0.71 54% 1.3 .71 16% .41 71% .29 1.31 64% 46% 53% +15 -2 1.28 38% 0.7 .28 18% .64 75% .48
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 North Texas C+ A+ F D- D 13% 37% 50% F F+ A+ C- A+ F A C- B+ C F C+ A+ D+ 31% 41% 28% A+ C+ D+ A+ B D- D B D+
1.07 71% 25% 30% -6 -4 0.81 51% 1.0 .49 27% .44 69% .31 1.03 79% 32% 18% -3 -3 0.90 37% 0.8 .29 14% .39 67% .26
Feb
8		 UAB D+ C C+ F D 22% 30% 48% F F+ A F+ B- C D- F F C+ D+ A+ B- C+ 37% 25% 38% B- C+ D+ C C- D+ D A C
0.98 58% 38% 27% -5 -2 0.87 37% 0.8 .28 17% .18 50% .09 1.07 63% 23% 30% -4 -1 0.92 34% 1.0 .34 11% .35 62% .22
Feb
11		 Florida Atlantic B A+ C+ D- B+ 31% 22% 47% D- B D B+ C- A+ C+ F D C+ C+ C A+ A- 26% 44% 30% A+ A+ D B- C- D- F C- F
1.16 78% 38% 30% +3 -1 1.07 22% 1.1 .24 7% .31 60% .19 1.05 57% 42% 19% -5 -4 0.83 36% 1.0 .36 14% .42 72% .30
Feb
14		 East Carolina C A+ D- F D 15% 40% 45% F F+ A F+ B- A- C+ A+ B+ F D+ F F F 24% 45% 31% A+ F C F F F F D+ F
1.13 88% 32% 28% -2 -4 0.89 40% 1.0 .40 14% .28 88% .24 1.28 58% 50% 47% +11 -4 1.16 32% 1.6 .50 12% .44 73% .32
Feb
22		 Tulane C+ C F A+ B- 31% 24% 45% D C+ F C F B- B- A+ A- D- A F F F 36% 2% 62% F F D+ F F C+ F C+ F
1.09 56% 25% 43% +3 -1 1.06 18% 1.0 .18 16% .35 80% .28 1.18 47% 100% 42% +5 +2 1.17 25% 1.4 .36 16% .54 74% .40
Feb
25		 South Florida F F F+ A+ B 22% 24% 54% D B- D+ F F F B+ C+ B B B A+ C B 33% 24% 44% A+ A- B A A C- B+ F C-
0.81 33% 30% 45% +2 -2 1.02 26% 0.4 .12 33% .37 71% .26 1.08 50% 23% 33% -7 -1 0.87 35% 0.9 .33 14% .32 89% .29
Mar
1		 Temple A- A+ A C- A 26% 30% 45% F B+ C A+ A+ B+ B- C+ B- C F F B F 39% 32% 30% A- D- C+ B B- B- F C+ F
1.23 83% 50% 33% +10 -2 1.17 29% 1.9 .54 12% .33 74% .24 1.14 71% 50% 31% +7 -1 1.14 28% 0.9 .24 15% .47 73% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 7.1 7.1 8th
9th 6.4 10.0 16.3 9th
10th 28.0 1.5 29.5 10th
11th 7.8 34.4 42.1 11th
12th 3.7 1.2 4.9 12th
13th 13th
Total 11.5 69.9 18.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 18.6% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 18.6
7-11 69.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 69.8
6-12 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.5
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.9 99.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 2.9%