Rice
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.4 #239
Expected Predictive Rating -5.1 #239
Pace 64.5 #296
Improvement +0.6 #147

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #206 D+ C C- C- F
Defense #270 C- C C C A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #359 1.02 #326 -7.7 #358
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #42 0.72 #227 +2.5 #66
Three Pointers 43% #145 1.07 #109 +2.2 #107
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #265 -3.1 #266
Freethrows 17.6 #194 70% #273 12.2 #210
Second Chance 34.3% #74 0.90 #340 0.31 #199
Turnovers 17.5% #252
Total Offense -1.4 #206

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #308 1.32 #340 +0.0 #178
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #24 0.64 #27 -1.1 #273
Three Pointers 38% #260 1.12 #316 -0.7 #206
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #240 -1.9 #239
Freethrows 17.8 #191 74% #277 13.2 #219
Second Chance 31.8% #242 0.99 #104 0.31 #169
Turnovers 15.9% #211
Total Defense -3.0 #270

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.4% #346 -2.5% #24
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.8% #220 6.3% #299
Possession Length 18.2 #264 17.4 #204
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #184 0.20 #275
Improvement +2.4 #61 -1.8 #285

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.3
.500 or above 1.1% 3.7% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 9.0% 21.7% 6.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 0.7% 2.6%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Home) - 18.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 33 - 94 - 15
Quad 46 - 511 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 68 @Oregon L 63 - 67 8% -0  0 - 1 +7 -2 D- C F +9 A+ B C
 Tue, Nov 11 105 Stephen F. Austin L 69 - 81 29% -8  0 - 2 -11 +2 D- C A+ -13 F C C+
 Fri, Nov 14 308 East Texas A&M W 71 - 64 75% +2  1 - 2 -4 -1 B C F -3 D+ B- B
 Mon, Nov 17 22 @Tennessee L 66 - 91 2% -12  1 - 3 -5 +5 C D+ B+ -11 C F D
 Thu, Nov 20 189 Tarleton St. L 74 - 90 52% -3  1 - 4 -21 -6 F F B+ -14 F A+ C
 Mon, Nov 24 150 Kennesaw St. L 84 - 89 OT 31% +1  1 - 5 -4 -0 C C- F -3 C C C
 Tue, Nov 25 225 @Florida Gulf Coast L 63 - 78 OT 36% +4  1 - 6 -16 -20 F F F +6 B+ A+ A-
 Wed, Nov 26 321 Oral Roberts W 81 - 62 70% +10  2 - 6 +9 +15 A+ A+ C- -3 A F C
 Wed, Dec 3 263 Texas St. W 77 - 72 66% +2  3 - 6 -4 +4 F A+ D+ -8 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 145 Arkansas St. W 77 - 76 41% -7  4 - 6 -1 +3 D+ D+ A+ -5 F A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 20 279 @Pepperdine L 62 - 84 47% -8  4 - 7 -26 -10 F C+ D- -15 F F A
 Wed, Dec 31 70 @Tulsa L 48 - 97 8% -16  4 - 8 0 - 1 -38 -19 F F D- -22 F C C
 Sat, Jan 3 92 Memphis L 70 - 76 25% +1  4 - 9 0 - 2 -3 +7 C- B+ C- -11 A+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 103 @Wichita St. W 66 - 64 13% +2  5 - 9 1 - 2 +10 +2 C+ F C +8 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Jan 11 173 Charlotte L 73 - 74 49% -3  5 - 10 1 - 3 -5 +2 D- D- D -7 F A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 345 @Texas San Antonio W 89 - 73 67% +11  6 - 10 2 - 3 +7 +25 A+ C+ B- -16 F F D-
 Wed, Jan 21 140 Temple L 65 - 69 40% -0  6 - 11 2 - 4 -6 -0 C- B+ F -6 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 24 70 Tulsa L 72 - 81 19%
 Wed, Jan 28 267 @East Carolina L 70 - 71 44%
 Sat, Jan 31 173 @Charlotte L 68 - 74 27%
 Wed, Feb 4 127 North Texas L 63 - 66 38%
 Sun, Feb 8 117 @UAB L 70 - 80 17%
 Wed, Feb 11 95 Florida Atlantic L 71 - 78 26%
 Sat, Feb 14 267 East Carolina W 73 - 68 66%
 Sun, Feb 22 172 @Tulane L 68 - 74 28%
 Wed, Feb 25 74 South Florida L 73 - 82 20%
 Sun, Mar 1 140 @Temple L 67 - 76 22%
 Wed, Mar 4 127 @North Texas L 60 - 69 19%
 Sun, Mar 8 345 Texas San Antonio W 79 - 68 84%
Totals 10 - 19 6 - 12 -4 -1 D+ C C- -3 C- C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.2 1.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.1 0.4 3.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.3 2.1 0.1 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 5.0 5.0 0.6 11.4 9th
10th 0.2 3.1 9.8 10.1 1.9 0.0 25.2 10th
11th 0.7 6.6 14.6 11.3 2.8 0.1 36.1 11th
12th 0.4 3.6 5.9 3.1 0.5 0.0 13.4 12th
13th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 13th
Total 0.6 4.6 12.8 20.8 22.4 18.6 11.2 5.9 2.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 25.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 6.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 3.4% 3.4% 13.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 14.0 0.0 0.7
10-8 2.3% 1.1% 1.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 2.3
9-9 5.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 5.8
8-10 11.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.2
7-11 18.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.6
6-12 22.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 22.4
5-13 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 20.8
4-14 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.8
3-15 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.6
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.3 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%