Rice
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.4#217
Expected Predictive Rating-6.6#270
Pace65.2#293
Improvement-0.4#220

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#209
First Shot-1.7#219
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#170
Layup/Dunks-7.5#352
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#49
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#55
Freethrows-1.7#271
Improvement+0.2#161

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#228
First Shot-1.6#221
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#200
Layups/Dunks+1.1#140
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#326
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#82
Freethrows-3.0#327
Improvement-0.6#245
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.7% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 10.9% 16.4% 5.6%
.500 or above in Conference 23.9% 28.5% 19.5%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 18.3% 14.6% 21.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas St. (Home) - 48.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 33 - 94 - 15
Quad 47 - 411 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 80 @Oregon L 63-67 11%     0 - 1 +6.2 -1.9 +7.9
  Tue, Nov 11 144 Stephen F. Austin L 69-81 44%     0 - 2 -13.9 -0.7 -13.6
  Fri, Nov 14 300 East Texas A&M W 71-64 76%     1 - 2 -3.8 -0.8 -2.6
  Mon, Nov 17 16 @Tennessee L 66-91 2%     1 - 3 -4.8 +4.8 -10.1
  Thu, Nov 20 202 Tarleton St. L 74-90 58%     1 - 4 -21.6 -5.8 -14.8
  Mon, Nov 24 162 Kennesaw St. L 84-89 OT 39%     1 - 5 -5.4 -1.9 -2.9
  Tue, Nov 25 177 @Florida Gulf Coast L 63-78 OT 31%     1 - 6 -13.3 -18.6 +7.1
  Wed, Nov 26 311 Oral Roberts W 81-62 68%     2 - 6 +10.6 +13.3 -0.1
  Wed, Dec 3 232 Texas St. W 77-72 64%     3 - 6 -2.2 +4.8 -6.8
  Sat, Dec 13 155 Arkansas St. L 75-76 49%    
  Sat, Dec 20 298 @Pepperdine W 70-69 55%    
  Wed, Dec 31 91 @Tulsa L 65-77 14%    
  Sat, Jan 3 75 Memphis L 68-76 24%    
  Wed, Jan 7 97 @Wichita St. L 64-75 14%    
  Sun, Jan 11 186 Charlotte W 69-67 55%    
  Wed, Jan 14 269 @Texas San Antonio L 71-72 50%    
  Wed, Jan 21 157 Temple L 75-76 49%    
  Sun, Jan 25 91 Tulsa L 68-74 30%    
  Wed, Jan 28 245 @East Carolina L 70-72 44%    
  Sat, Jan 31 186 @Charlotte L 66-70 35%    
  Wed, Feb 4 145 North Texas L 65-66 47%    
  Sun, Feb 8 112 @UAB L 68-78 18%    
  Wed, Feb 11 126 Florida Atlantic L 71-74 39%    
  Sat, Feb 14 245 East Carolina W 73-69 65%    
  Sun, Feb 22 172 @Tulane L 71-76 32%    
  Wed, Feb 25 79 South Florida L 72-80 25%    
  Sun, Mar 1 157 @Temple L 72-78 28%    
  Wed, Mar 4 145 @North Texas L 62-69 26%    
  Sun, Mar 8 269 Texas San Antonio W 75-69 69%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.7 3rd
4th 0.2 1.2 1.8 0.4 0.0 3.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.6 1.8 0.2 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.5 3.7 0.4 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.5 4.8 1.2 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.2 2.6 6.2 2.4 0.2 11.5 9th
10th 0.3 2.1 6.5 3.7 0.3 12.9 10th
11th 0.3 2.3 5.9 4.4 0.8 0.0 13.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.4 3.9 0.8 0.0 13.4 12th
13th 0.3 1.2 2.8 3.5 2.4 0.7 0.0 10.9 13th
Total 0.3 1.2 3.3 6.5 10.4 12.8 14.7 14.8 12.1 9.9 6.2 4.3 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 64.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 47.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 21.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 12.9% 12.9% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.3% 12.7% 12.7% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 0.9% 9.6% 9.6% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
12-6 2.1% 5.2% 5.2% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.0
11-7 4.3% 2.4% 2.4% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2
10-8 6.2% 0.9% 0.9% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1
9-9 9.9% 0.9% 0.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.8
8-10 12.1% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 12.1
7-11 14.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.7
6-12 14.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.7
5-13 12.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.8
4-14 10.4% 10.4
3-15 6.5% 6.5
2-16 3.3% 3.3
1-17 1.2% 1.2
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%