Tennessee
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +18.0 18
Expected Predictive Rating +18.1 20
Pace 65.7 261
Improvement -0.9 225

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 35 B A+ D+ B+ C+
Defense A- 12 A- A- C+ B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 56 B- 63% 75 +4.8 31
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 195 C+ 40% 98 +0.1 180
Three Pointers 37% 263 B 37% 39 +0.0 175
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.5 123 B +4.3 58
1st FG Attempt B 1.12 54
Second Chance A+ 45.9% 1 C+ 1.05 140 A+ 0.48 4
Turnovers D+ 18.2% 265
Freethrows A- 0.37 14 D+ 70% 249 B+ 0.26 37
Total Offense B+ +8.4 35

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 300 B+ 52% 44 +4.5 44
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 149 B+ 33% 30 +0.8 126
Three Pointers 44% 88 A- 29% 18 +1.8 104
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.4 102 A -6.6 10
1st FG Attempt A- 0.88 13
Second Chance A- 24.3% 17 B- 0.94 69 A- 0.23 20
Turnovers C+ 18.0% 109
Freethrows C+ 0.29 139 A+ 66% 4 B 0.19 58
Total Defense A- +9.7 12

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.4 88 19.1 359
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 40 0.11 27
Improvement -0.5 #218 -0.5 #223

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 1% 1% 0%
Top 2 Seed 6% 6% 1%
Top 4 Seed 40% 43% 21%
Top 6 Seed 83% 86% 68%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 99%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 99%
Average Seed 5.0 4.8 5.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 99% 100% 97%
Conference Champion 3% 3% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 1%
First Round100% 100% 99%
Second Round84% 85% 76%
Sweet Sixteen43% 44% 35%
Elite Eight17% 17% 13%
Final Four7% 7% 5%
Championship Game3% 3% 2%
National Champion1% 1% 1%

Next Game: LSU (Home) - 86.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 75 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 9
Quad 26 - 113 - 10
Quad 33 - 016 - 10
Quad 47 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 173 Mercer W 76 - 61 97% +11  82% 1 - 0 B+ +11 D+ -2 D A+ F A+ +14 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 206 Northern Kentucky W 95 - 56 98% +18  94% 2 - 0 A+ +33 A+ +17 A- A+ B A+ +16 A+ C- A-
 Wed, Nov 12 343 North Florida W 99 - 66 99% +15  91% 3 - 0 A +18 C+ +3 C- A+ F A +13 A+ C- A-
 Mon, Nov 17 218 Rice W 91 - 66 98% +12  99% 4 - 0 A +19 A +13 B A+ C B+ +7 B+ A+ D+
 Thu, Nov 20 241 Tennessee St. W 89 - 60 98% +22  98% 5 - 0 A +22 C- -2 D- A+ D- A+ +20 A A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 121 Rutgers W 85 - 60 92% +19  97% 6 - 0 A+ +28 A+ +14 A A+ D A+ +14 A- A A
 Tue, Nov 25 5 Houston W 76 - 73 33% -2  33% 7 - 0 A+ +26 A+ +23 B+ A+ A+ B- +3 D+ A B+
 Wed, Nov 26 12 Kansas L 76 - 81 46% +3  70% 7 - 1 B+ +14 A +12 A- B+ A C+ +2 A A C-
 Tue, Dec 2 67 @Syracuse L 60 - 62 74% -2  14% 7 - 2 B +9 F+ -9 D B F A+ +19 A A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 6 Illinois L 62 - 75 37% -4  6% 7 - 3 B +8 C+ +2 D- A+ F B +5 B B+ D-
 Tue, Dec 16 11 Louisville W 83 - 62 56% +11  94% 8 - 3 A+ +38 A+ +15 A+ A- B- A+ +23 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 363 Gardner-Webb W 94 - 52 100% +26  86% 9 - 3 A +20 B+ +8 B+ B+ B- A +12 B+ B+ D
 Tue, Dec 30 358 South Carolina St. W 105 - 54 100% +23  99% 10 - 3 A+ +33 A+ +24 A+ A+ B A +10 A- B F
 Sat, Jan 3 19 @Arkansas L 75 - 86 39% -1  32% 10 - 4 0 - 1 B +10 C+ +2 B B- C- A- +8 A+ B A+
 Tue, Jan 6 30 Texas W 85 - 71 73% +11  90% 11 - 4 1 - 1 A+ +26 A+ +15 A+ A+ F+ A +11 A+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 4 @Florida L 67 - 91 22% -10  22% 11 - 5 1 - 2 C+ +2 C +1 B B- F B- +2 C- B D+
 Tue, Jan 13 31 Texas A&M W 87 - 82 2OT 73% -3  15% 12 - 5 2 - 2 A- +17 C+ +2 F A+ D- A+ +14 A A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 24 Kentucky L 78 - 80 68% +7  97% 12 - 6 2 - 3 B+ +11 A+ +17 A+ C- D+ D -6 B- F C
 Sat, Jan 24 17 @Alabama W 79 - 73 38% -1  36% 13 - 6 3 - 3 A+ +27 A +13 A C+ C- A+ +14 A+ B D+
 Wed, Jan 28 36 @Georgia W 86 - 85 OT 53% -1  42% 14 - 6 4 - 3 A +18 A+ +19 B A+ B C -1 F+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 28 Auburn W 77 - 69 71% +8  99% 15 - 6 5 - 3 A +20 B +6 C+ B+ D- A+ +15 A+ B C+
 Tue, Feb 3 65 Mississippi W 84 - 66 88% +7  89% 16 - 6 6 - 3 A+ +23 A+ +19 B+ A+ A+ B+ +6 C+ D+ C+
 Sat, Feb 7 24 @Kentucky L 71 - 74 46% +5  86% 16 - 7 6 - 4 A- +16 B +7 B+ B D+ A- +9 B B- C-
 Wed, Feb 11 79 @Mississippi St. W 73 - 64 78% +9  91% 17 - 7 7 - 4 A +19 B- +4 C+ A D+ A+ +15 A- A+ C
 Sat, Feb 14 57 LSU W 79 - 68 86%
 Wed, Feb 18 54 Oklahoma W 80 - 69 85%
 Sat, Feb 21 14 @Vanderbilt L 74 - 78 37%
 Tue, Feb 24 48 @Missouri W 75 - 71 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 17 Alabama W 84 - 81 60%
 Tue, Mar 3 92 @South Carolina W 75 - 65 82%
 Sat, Mar 7 14 Vanderbilt W 77 - 75 58%
Totals 22 - 9 12 - 6 +18 F +8 B B C+ A- +10 B D+ B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ B- C+ B B 43% 20% 37% C+ B A+ C+ A+ D+ A- D+ B+ A- B+ B+ A- A 35% 21% 44% C+ A- A- B- A- C+ C+ A+ B
1.21 63% 40% 37% +4 0 1.12 46% 1.0 .48 18% .37 70% .26 0.95 52% 33% 29% -7 0 0.88 24% 0.9 .23 18% .29 66% .25
Nov
3		 Mercer D+ F A A D 52% 20% 28% B- D A+ A A+ F B F C- A+ A+ A A+ A+ 31% 25% 44% B A+ A A+ A+ F C+ B B-
1.08 42% 50% 43% -2 +1 1.00 46% 1.2 .54 27% .29 60% .18 0.87 44% 27% 23% -14 -1 0.71 25% 0.7 .18 7% .32 71% .23
Nov
8		 Northern Kentucky A+ C+ A+ A A 37% 19% 44% C A- A+ D+ A+ B C A+ B- A+ B B- A+ A+ 39% 12% 49% C- A+ B+ F C- A- B+ A+ A+
1.36 60% 60% 42% +10 0 1.22 52% 1.1 .55 17% .33 79% .26 0.80 53% 33% 21% -12 +1 0.80 24% 1.3 .32 22% .24 38% .09
Nov
12		 North Florida C+ C- A+ D D+ 42% 15% 43% C C- A+ B+ A+ F A+ C+ A A A C A A+ 33% 9% 58% D+ A+ D+ C+ C- A- B- A+ A+
1.30 59% 63% 30% +2 +1 1.08 63% 1.4 .84 18% .39 71% .27 0.87 44% 40% 28% -9 +1 0.85 27% 1.1 .30 22% .20 50% .10
Nov
17		 Rice A B- C- C- C 52% 12% 36% A+ B A+ A A+ C B+ B B+ B+ A- C- A- A- 26% 26% 48% C- B+ B A+ A+ D+ F D F
1.33 65% 33% 33% +3 +2 1.12 51% 1.2 .63 16% .38 77% .29 0.96 46% 38% 29% -6 -2 0.86 33% 0.6 .19 16% .43 72% .31
Nov
20		 Tennessee St. C- C+ F C- D- 46% 12% 42% C+ D- B- A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ 24% 29% 47% B A C+ A+ A+ A+ F D+ F
1.12 61% 17% 33% -2 +2 1.02 36% 1.5 .54 21% .56 89% .50 0.76 73% 23% 19% -11 -2 0.76 30% 0.6 .18 28% .44 76% .33
Nov
24		 Rutgers A+ C- F A+ A 39% 17% 43% B- A A+ A+ A+ D A- D B A+ C+ A+ B- A 33% 31% 36% C A- A- A A A F A- F+
1.27 56% 25% 50% +7 0 1.17 47% 1.3 .59 19% .32 71% .22 0.90 53% 21% 31% -8 -2 0.82 28% 0.9 .26 21% .46 67% .30
Nov
25		 Houston A+ A F D B 45% 14% 40% A B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- C- D F D 29% 35% 37% C+ D+ D- A+ A B+ B B+ B+
1.26 68% 0% 29% -3 +1 0.98 42% 1.2 .52 15% .56 79% .45 1.21 67% 44% 42% +9 -2 1.15 44% 0.7 .29 15% .21 73% .16
Nov
26		 Kansas A C+ B+ C A 33% 27% 40% C- A- B A- B+ A A+ A+ A+ C+ B+ B+ C+ A 45% 25% 29% C A B- A A C- F F F
1.10 56% 40% 32% -2 -1 0.96 31% 1.0 .31 10% .35 77% .27 1.17 57% 31% 33% -3 0 0.96 29% 1.0 .29 13% .50 87% .43
Dec
2		 Syracuse F+ F+ F+ D+ D 47% 26% 28% C D B- B- B F C- F F+ A+ B D- A- A 39% 24% 37% B A B+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A- D+
0.87 45% 25% 31% -11 0 0.81 34% 1.2 .39 25% .29 53% .15 0.90 56% 45% 29% -2 0 0.98 26% 0.7 .18 23% .42 59% .25
Dec
6		 Illinois C+ F F D+ F 45% 21% 34% A+ D- A+ B- A+ F A+ F B+ B B- A- C A- 48% 6% 46% F B A+ D- B+ D- A- A+ A+
1.01 43% 10% 31% -14 0 0.74 53% 1.0 .51 21% .37 44% .16 1.22 58% 33% 35% 0 +3 1.08 32% 1.4 .44 10% .25 57% .14
Dec
16		 Louisville A+ A+ A A A+ 47% 20% 33% A A+ A C+ A- B- A+ F+ A+ A+ C D- A+ A+ 38% 4% 58% C- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ C- A+ B
1.20 71% 44% 40% +11 +1 1.24 36% 1.0 .36 16% .48 64% .31 0.90 63% 50% 24% -6 +2 0.94 32% 0.6 .19 23% .34 61% .21
Dec
21		 Gardner-Webb B+ A- B- B+ B 46% 9% 45% B+ B+ A- C B+ B- F D- F A D- A+ A+ B+ 30% 19% 52% B+ B+ A+ D+ B+ D A+ A+ A+
1.34 73% 40% 40% +11 +2 1.29 44% 1.1 .47 13% .20 67% .13 0.74 63% 10% 25% -11 0 0.80 15% 1.0 .15 19% .16 56% .09
Dec
30		 South Carolina St. A+ A+ A+ D A+ 48% 10% 42% C+ A+ A+ D A+ B A+ F B- A A+ B B+ A 27% 39% 35% B- A- A+ F B F C- A+ B
1.52 91% 80% 30% +18 +2 1.42 67% 1.1 .73 14% .56 58% .32 0.78 38% 32% 29% -10 -3 0.76 16% 1.5 .24 14% .34 50% .17
Jan
3		 Arkansas C+ F+ B- A+ B- 56% 20% 24% B+ B B- C+ B- C- A+ F B A- C- A+ B- A+ 29% 31% 40% A+ A+ C A- B A+ F F F
1.00 46% 40% 42% -3 +1 0.98 31% 1.3 .40 19% .38 52% .20 1.15 67% 25% 33% -2 -2 0.94 35% 1.1 .38 19% .54 88% .48
Jan
6		 Texas A+ A+ F A+ A+ 50% 18% 32% A A+ A+ B- A+ F+ A+ C+ A+ A A+ F+ C- A+ 34% 14% 52% C- A+ C- F+ F+ A+ C+ D- C-
1.27 73% 25% 43% +9 +1 1.23 48% 1.0 .48 19% .54 72% .39 1.06 33% 50% 35% -6 +1 0.91 41% 1.4 .57 24% .39 80% .31
Jan
10		 Florida C B+ F A- B+ 38% 33% 29% C B D+ A+ B- F A+ D A+ B- F F+ B D+ 38% 15% 46% B+ C- A+ D- B D+ D+ F F+
0.90 59% 27% 38% -2 -2 0.96 17% 1.0 .17 24% .51 66% .34 1.22 75% 50% 29% +5 +1 1.13 33% 1.2 .39 13% .39 80% .31
Jan
13		 Texas A&M C+ D+ D- F F 34% 26% 40% D+ F A+ C- A+ D- A+ C+ A+ A+ A- A+ C+ A+ 32% 2% 67% C A A+ A+ A+ C+ F A+ D-
1.05 53% 31% 25% -9 -1 0.82 49% 0.9 .43 23% .66 74% .48 0.99 50% 0% 34% -3 +2 1.00 22% 0.5 .11 16% .46 66% .30
Jan
17		 Kentucky A+ B A+ A+ A+ 46% 13% 41% A+ A+ A+ F C- D+ A+ D A+ D A+ A+ F B+ 39% 11% 50% D B- D- F+ F C D A+ C+
1.23 61% 60% 50% +14 +2 1.33 52% 0.4 .19 19% .56 69% .39 1.26 44% 20% 43% 0 +1 1.04 41% 1.4 .56 14% .39 62% .24
Jan
24		 Alabama A B+ A B+ A+ 33% 35% 33% D A A F C+ C- A+ C+ A+ A+ C- B A+ A+ 29% 20% 51% A+ A+ A D B D+ F+ A- D+
1.18 63% 47% 38% +6 -2 1.10 38% 0.7 .27 15% .44 68% .30 1.09 64% 40% 24% -5 -1 0.90 26% 1.3 .34 10% .40 71% .28
Jan
28		 Georgia A+ D+ A B+ A- 32% 30% 38% F+ B A+ C A+ B A+ F A+ C D- F D- F 36% 21% 43% A F+ A+ A+ A+ F C+ B+ B
1.24 50% 47% 37% +2 -2 1.02 57% 0.9 .52 17% .44 60% .26 1.23 70% 58% 38% +11 0 1.23 21% 0.6 .12 9% .32 70% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Auburn B A+ F B- B 37% 37% 26% F+ C+ A+ F B+ D- A+ A- A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 39% 11% 50% C- A+ A+ F B C+ B+ B+ A-
1.12 75% 25% 36% +2 -2 1.02 49% 0.8 .37 22% .58 81% .47 1.01 57% 17% 22% -11 +1 0.81 29% 1.3 .37 15% .34 70% .24
Feb
3		 Mississippi A+ F A+ B- B+ 31% 21% 48% C+ B+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ C- A+ B+ B D- C+ B- 16% 30% 55% C+ C+ A F D+ C+ F+ A+ C-
1.30 38% 67% 35% +1 -1 1.02 52% 1.2 .64 12% .60 68% .41 1.02 57% 46% 33% +2 -3 1.00 23% 1.6 .37 14% .38 62% .23
Feb
7		 Kentucky B A C B+ A 19% 40% 40% F B+ A+ F+ B D+ A+ D- A+ A- F B+ A+ B+ 48% 20% 32% C- B A+ F B- C- D+ A+ B-
1.05 67% 37% 37% +3 -4 1.00 45% 0.6 .29 19% .46 68% .31 1.09 75% 30% 19% -1 +1 1.02 23% 1.8 .40 13% .38 59% .22
Feb
11		 Mississippi St. B- A- F+ D- B- 39% 39% 22% D+ C+ A B+ A D+ B A+ A A+ B- B+ D+ B 25% 38% 36% A+ A- A+ A- A+ C A- A+ A
1.04 65% 30% 27% -3 -2 0.92 35% 1.2 .41 16% .31 83% .25 0.92 57% 33% 35% -1 -3 0.93 18% 0.9 .15 16% .22 54% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 2.1 3.0 1st
2nd 0.0 2.8 12.0 4.2 18.9 2nd
3rd 0.7 13.1 7.9 0.3 21.9 3rd
4th 0.0 5.3 11.9 0.5 17.8 4th
5th 0.6 10.7 3.1 0.0 14.3 5th
6th 0.1 3.7 7.0 0.1 10.9 6th
7th 0.4 5.1 1.2 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 2.2 0.1 3.6 8th
9th 0.2 1.2 0.4 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.7 3.5 12.1 24.9 31.0 21.3 6.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 31.8% 2.1    0.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.5% 1.0    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 6.5% 100.0% 19.2% 80.8% 2.7 0.7 2.0 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 21.3% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 3.8 0.3 2.1 6.4 7.5 4.2 0.9 0.0 100.0%
12-6 31.0% 100.0% 10.6% 89.4% 4.7 0.1 0.5 3.9 8.4 10.6 6.0 1.4 0.1 100.0%
11-7 24.9% 99.9% 6.0% 93.9% 5.6 0.1 0.7 3.0 7.1 8.7 4.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 99.9%
10-8 12.1% 99.5% 4.3% 95.2% 6.5 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.6 4.0 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
9-9 3.5% 97.7% 2.3% 95.5% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 97.7%
8-10 0.7% 86.7% 2.2% 84.4% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 86.4%
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.7% 10.1% 89.7% 5.0 0.3 99.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 1.7 37.5 52.0 10.1 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3% 100.0% 2.6 7.1 41.3 39.4 11.9 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8% 100.0% 2.9 6.3 26.2 42.2 23.4 1.6 0.3