Miami (OH)
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.4 #89
Expected Predictive Rating +17.2 #20
Pace 74.2 #54
Improvement +2.2 #82

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #62 A D B B C+
Defense #138 C- B+ C+ C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #197 1.37 #13 +3.5 #71
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #262 0.77 #148 -1.4 #249
Three Pointers 46% #84 1.14 #37 +5.2 #36
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #24 +7.3 #23
Freethrows 18.6 #133 79% #11 14.7 #78
Second Chance 23.0% #345 1.14 #69 0.26 #300
Turnovers 14.8% #76
Total Offense +5.5 #62

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #217 1.19 #219 +0.1 #175
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #131 0.85 #315 -1.5 #298
Three Pointers 41% #192 1.02 #193 +0.0 #181
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #222 -1.4 #224
Freethrows 16.9 #146 77% #348 12.9 #195
Second Chance 28.9% #110 0.90 #27 0.26 #43
Turnovers 17.1% #137
Total Defense +0.9 #138

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #127 -0.4% #123
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 13.3% #18 3.2% #241
Possession Length 16.5 #98 16.9 #113
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #217 0.15 #108
Improvement +1.4 #106 +0.9 #129

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.4% 31.4% 25.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.3% 1.5% 0.5%
Average Seed 11.5 11.5 11.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 69.6% 73.9% 46.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.9% 1.0% 0.3%
First Round29.8% 30.7% 24.7%
Second Round4.9% 5.2% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Home) - 84.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 02 - 0
Quad 310 - 212 - 3
Quad 415 - 027 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 240 Old Dominion W 87 - 72 90% -3  1 - 0 +8 +6 A+ F D+ +1 F B- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 340 @Air Force W 76 - 61 91% +10  2 - 0 +7 +6 A+ F C +1 B B D-
 Thu, Nov 20 306 Mercyhurst W 76 - 71 94% +5  3 - 0 -6 +5 C+ F B- -11 F C B
 Sun, Nov 23 334 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 111 - 84 96% +20  4 - 0 +13 +16 A+ F A -6 A C F
 Wed, Nov 26 294 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 71 90% -1  5 - 0 +3 +1 C F C +2 C+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 341 Maine W 93 - 61 96% +21  6 - 0 +17 +17 A- A+ F -0 D- D A+
 Wed, Dec 10 205 @UNC Asheville W 90 - 87 OT 73% +6  7 - 0 +3 +9 B+ F A+ -6 F A- D-
 Sat, Dec 13 254 @Eastern Kentucky W 79 - 69 79% +9  8 - 0 +8 +6 B- C B- +3 C+ A- A-
 Tue, Dec 16 154 @Wright St. W 83 - 76 62% +8  9 - 0 +10 +8 A+ F B +2 B+ A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 20 296 @Ball St. W 86 - 77 85% +3  10 - 0 1 - 0 +4 +11 A- F D- -7 F A+ F
 Tue, Dec 30 129 @Bowling Green W 93 - 83 55% +13  11 - 0 2 - 0 +15 +16 A+ A D+ -2 C B B
 Sat, Jan 3 64 Akron W 76 - 73 53% -1  12 - 0 3 - 0 +9 +1 F A+ D- +8 A+ B A+
 Tue, Jan 6 260 Western Michigan W 87 - 76 91% +6  13 - 0 4 - 0 +3 +4 B- C+ F -2 C+ A+ F
 Fri, Jan 9 166 @Toledo W 87 - 73 65% +17  14 - 0 5 - 0 +16 +13 A+ C- A +4 B A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 13 322 Central Michigan W 100 - 61 95% +17  15 - 0 6 - 0 +26 +21 A+ C A- +5 C A+ A
 Sat, Jan 17 201 Buffalo W 105 - 102 OT 87% -0  16 - 0 7 - 0 -3 +9 A+ F A+ -12 F A+ B
 Tue, Jan 20 148 @Kent St. W 107 - 101 OT 60% +6  17 - 0 8 - 0 +10 +17 A+ F A+ -8 D D B-
 Tue, Jan 27 176 Massachusetts W 88 - 77 84%
 Sat, Jan 31 318 Northern Illinois W 88 - 69 96%
 Tue, Feb 3 201 @Buffalo W 84 - 78 72%
 Sat, Feb 7 163 @Marshall W 84 - 80 63%
 Sat, Feb 14 196 Ohio W 89 - 77 87%
 Tue, Feb 17 176 @Massachusetts W 85 - 80 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 129 Bowling Green W 83 - 76 75%
 Tue, Feb 24 198 @Eastern Michigan W 79 - 73 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 260 @Western Michigan W 85 - 76 80%
 Tue, Mar 3 166 Toledo W 88 - 78 82%
 Fri, Mar 6 196 @Ohio W 86 - 80 70%
Totals 25 - 3 16 - 2 +6 +6 A D B +1 C- B+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.4 10.1 21.6 24.2 11.1 69.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.0 8.2 10.3 5.8 27.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.3 2.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.3 10.9 20.4 27.4 24.2 11.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 11.1    11.1
17-1 100.0% 24.2    19.3 4.9
16-2 78.8% 21.6    12.9 8.6
15-3 49.5% 10.1    4.5 5.3 0.3
14-4 21.7% 2.4    0.7 1.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 6.3% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 69.6% 69.6 48.6 20.3 0.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 11.1% 43.0% 38.7% 4.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 3.4 0.6 6.3 7.0%
17-1 24.2% 35.6% 34.3% 1.3% 11.4 0.0 0.1 5.2 3.2 0.0 15.6 2.0%
16-2 27.4% 30.4% 30.0% 0.4% 11.6 0.0 3.2 4.9 0.2 19.0 0.6%
15-3 20.4% 26.1% 26.0% 0.1% 11.8 1.4 3.7 0.3 15.1 0.1%
14-4 10.9% 21.3% 21.2% 0.0% 11.9 0.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.6 0.1%
13-5 4.3% 17.9% 17.9% 12.1 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.5
12-6 1.4% 14.1% 14.1% 12.3 0.1 0.1 1.2
11-7 0.3% 10.1% 10.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 30.4% 29.4% 0.9% 11.5 69.6 1.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.1% 100.0% 10.7 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.0 6.9 12.2 69.2 8.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.2% 11.5% 11.0 0.7 10.1 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4% 8.7% 11.0 0.3 8.3