Central Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -5.6 259
Results Rating -8.2 296
Consistency 0.20 359
Pace 67.4 210
Improvement +6.5 17

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 236 C- C D+ D D
Defense D+ 272 C- F C C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 187 C- 56% 219 -0.8 212
2 Pt. Jumpers 55% 32 B- 42% 61 +3.8 33
Three Pointers 34% 319 C- 33% 244 -4.3 322
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -0.9 299 C -0.4 181
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 217
Second Chance C- 28.6% 233 B- 1.10 87 C 0.31 163
Opponents' Steals D- 11.6% 339
Other Turnovers C+ 6.8% 123
Turnovers D+ 18.4% 288
Freethrows D+ 0.27 270 D+ 69% 275 D 0.19 292
Total Offense C- -2.3 236

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B- 55% 78 D+ 12.3% 260
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 39% 26 C 5.3% 211
Three Pointers C- 81% 246 C 1.0% 206
Total C+ 58% 137 D+ 6.5% 286


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 70 D+ 61% 255 +3.8 305
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 272 B- 36% 101 -1.5 63
Three Pointers 39% 232 C- 35% 221 -0.4 164
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 296 C- +1.2 229
1st FG Attempt C- 1.06 244
Second Chance F+ 35.8% 343 D- 1.16 341 F 0.42 358
Turnovers from Steals C- 9.1% 203
Other Turnovers C+ 7.5% 135
Turnovers C 16.6% 182
Freethrows D+ 0.34 283 B 70% 60 C- 0.24 252
Total Defense D+ -3.3 272

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 57% 331 C- 9.4% 231
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 22% 121 A- 9.2% 24
Three Pointers D 89% 329 A+ 2.7% 8
Total D 61% 309 B- 6.7% 91

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 285 16.9 104
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 137 0.22 330
Consistency 0.14 313 0.15 335
Improvement +2.1 86 +4.3 18

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 275 262 245
Results Rating Rank 300 294 275
Conference Record 6 - 12 6 - 12 7 - 11
Conference Finish 10 10 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 1% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Ball St. (Away) - 46.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 33 - 63 - 13
Quad 46 - 89 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 172 Appalachian St. W 82 - 66 44% +12  95% 1 - 0 B+ +12 A +13 A+ B- F C+ +0 A+ F D
 Sat, Nov 8 110 @Bradley L 54 - 85 13% -14  0% 1 - 1 F -25 F -17 F D- D- D- -8 F C C+
 Thu, Nov 13 187 South Alabama L 64 - 66 36% -3  1% 1 - 2 C- -4 D+ -3 F+ B C- C -1 A F C
 Fri, Nov 14 362 Coppin St. W 82 - 59 88% +13  94% 2 - 2 C+ +5 C- -1 D- B+ C+ B+ +5 A+ F F+
 Thu, Nov 20 183 Northern Kentucky L 66 - 90 46% -13  0% 2 - 3 F -29 F+ -10 D A F F -19 F F C-
 Sat, Nov 22 79 @Marquette L 71 - 85 8% -5  4% 2 - 4 C- -4 C +1 D+ F+ A+ D+ -4 F+ C D
 Tue, Dec 2 279 @Loyola Chicago L 72 - 83 42% -2  32% 2 - 5 D- -14 C- -1 C+ C D F -14 B- F F
 Sun, Dec 7 25 @Saint Louis L 65 - 107 2% -23  1% 2 - 6 F -23 C- -1 B- C D- F -23 C- F F
 Sat, Dec 13 227 @Stony Brook L 55 - 78 32% -16  0% 2 - 7 F -24 F -15 F D A- F -11 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 339 @Northern Illinois L 73 - 74 65% +10  90% 2 - 8 0 - 1 D -10 C- -0 D A+ D- F -10 C F B
 Mon, Dec 22 24 @Wisconsin L 61 - 88 2% -15  1% 2 - 9 D -8 D -5 D- D- A D+ -4 F A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 30 222 Ohio L 64 - 80 54% -5  42% 2 - 10 0 - 2 F -23 F -21 F F F+ C -0 B C- C
 Sat, Jan 3 150 Toledo L 75 - 78 38% +5  75% 2 - 11 0 - 3 D+ -6 D+ -4 C- D- A C- -2 A- C+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 71 @Akron L 69 - 82 7% -10  0% 2 - 12 0 - 4 C -2 D -4 C F F B- +3 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 152 Kent St. W 87 - 85 39% +1  62% 3 - 12 1 - 4 C -1 B +6 D- A+ A+ D -6 A- F B
 Tue, Jan 13 91 @Miami (OH) L 61 - 100 9% -17  1% 3 - 13 1 - 5 F -30 F -11 D F F F -19 F F D
 Tue, Jan 20 291 Ball St. L 67 - 68 68% -5  10% 3 - 14 1 - 6 D- -12 C+ +2 B+ C- D F -14 F C- F
 Sat, Jan 24 280 @Western Michigan L 65 - 77 42% -3  24% 3 - 15 1 - 7 F+ -16 F -12 F B- D- D+ -4 C+ D+ F
 Tue, Jan 27 247 Eastern Michigan W 100 - 65 59% +9  61% 4 - 15 2 - 7 A+ +27 A+ +16 A+ C- A- A- +8 C- C A+
 Sat, Jan 31 166 Bowling Green W 62 - 59 42% -4  26% 5 - 15 3 - 7 C -1 F -14 F A C- A+ +13 A A+ C-
 Tue, Feb 3 194 @Massachusetts L 89 - 95 27% +1  47% 5 - 16 3 - 8 D+ -5 A +13 A+ A+ F F -18 F F F
 Sat, Feb 7 298 @Louisiana L 80 - 85 49% +1  64% 5 - 17 D -10 A- +11 A B+ A- F -22 F F C+
 Sat, Feb 14 339 Northern Illinois W 88 - 46 82% +25  99% 6 - 17 4 - 8 A+ +27 A- +10 A+ A- B- A+ +18 A+ A+ B+
 Tue, Feb 17 247 @Eastern Michigan L 54 - 66 36% -9  3% 6 - 18 4 - 9 D- -14 F -16 F D F B- +2 F+ F A+
 Sat, Feb 21 280 Western Michigan W 83 - 70 65% +7  83% 7 - 18 5 - 9 C+ +3 D+ -4 C- D+ D B+ +7 A F B+
 Tue, Feb 24 152 @Kent St. L 81 - 83 20% +9  95% 7 - 19 5 - 10 C +1 A- +10 A- A+ F+ F+ -8 F+ F C+
 Sat, Feb 28 212 @Buffalo W 75 - 70 29% +5  70% 8 - 19 6 - 10 B- +5 B- +4 B B- F C+ +1 B- F F+
 Tue, Mar 3 71 Akron L 64 - 77 15% -3  23% 8 - 20 6 - 11 D+ -8 F+ -9 C D F+ C+ +2 C D- B-
 Fri, Mar 6 291 @Ball St. L 66 - 67 46%
Totals 8 - 21 6 - 12 -6 C- -2 D- C D D+ -3 C- D+ D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- B- C- C 38% 55% 34% D C- C- B- C D+ D+ D+ D D+ D+ B- C- C- 43% 18% 39% D C- F+ D- F C D+ B C-
1.05 56% 42% 33% 0 -1 1.00 29% 1.1 .31 18% .27 69% .19 1.13 61% 36% 35% +1 +1 1.06 36% 1.2 .42 17% .34 70% .19
Nov
3		 Appalachian St. A B+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 16% 35% B+ A+ A+ F B- F B+ A+ A C+ A+ A+ B A+ 33% 17% 50% C+ A+ F+ F+ F D F A+ D-
1.26 63% 50% 47% +11 +1 1.27 45% 0.7 .31 18% .32 82% .26 1.02 38% 25% 29% -13 0 0.77 36% 1.2 .43 14% .52 48% .25
Nov
8		 Bradley F F B F F 23% 55% 21% F F F+ C+ D- D- D- A C- D- F A+ F F 36% 13% 51% F+ F D- A- C C+ F A- D-
0.79 36% 42% 20% -7 -6 0.77 22% 1.0 .22 22% .28 80% .22 1.24 82% 17% 42% +12 +1 1.28 32% 0.9 .29 15% .43 68% .29
Nov
13		 South Alabama D+ F F D F 15% 8% 77% D+ F+ A D B C- D F F+ C B+ B A+ A+ 57% 7% 37% F A F F F C F C F
1.03 43% 25% 30% -8 0 0.85 41% 1.0 .41 18% .20 60% .12 1.07 50% 33% 18% -14 +3 0.80 32% 1.6 .51 13% .43 65% .28
Nov
14		 Coppin St. C- C- A+ F D- 38% 26% 36% D- D- B B- B+ C+ F D+ F B+ A A+ A+ A+ 42% 23% 35% D- A+ C- F F F+ C+ D- C-
1.16 60% 57% 26% +2 -1 1.04 40% 1.2 .49 16% .25 73% .18 0.83 41% 17% 17% -21 0 0.60 30% 1.5 .43 18% .31 72% .22
Nov
20		 Northern Kentucky F+ C+ A+ F D+ 35% 28% 37% F+ D B A- A F B- F C- F C B- F F 37% 17% 46% B- F F F F C- A- C+ A-
0.97 60% 50% 25% -1 -1 0.98 39% 1.3 .52 28% .36 61% .22 1.32 58% 33% 46% +7 0 1.17 39% 1.5 .61 16% .23 69% .16
Nov
22		 Marquette C B- F+ D- C- 40% 31% 29% D- D+ B- F F+ A+ D D+ D D+ F A+ B- F+ 57% 2% 40% F+ F+ B D- C D F A- F
1.00 61% 28% 29% -4 -1 0.91 35% 0.5 .19 15% .23 71% .17 1.19 70% 0% 32% +5 +4 1.19 28% 1.1 .31 13% .56 63% .35
Dec
2		 Loyola Chicago C- B- A D+ B 42% 33% 25% D- C+ F A+ C D C+ C C+ F D B+ A B- 43% 14% 43% C B- C- F F F F C- F
1.08 60% 50% 33% +5 -1 1.08 17% 1.8 .31 15% .30 76% .23 1.25 63% 33% 26% -3 +1 0.98 31% 1.7 .53 12% .57 70% .39
Dec
7		 Saint Louis C- F A+ B+ B+ 30% 30% 40% D- B- C C+ C D- A+ D A- F D- D+ C 55% 0% 45% F C- F F F F D C+ D+
0.94 36% 50% 37% -1 -2 0.96 25% 0.9 .22 19% .41 70% .28 1.55 69% 38% +9 +4 1.28 43% 1.5 .63 6% .34 73% .25
Dec
13		 Stony Brook F D+ C+ F F 34% 25% 42% D F F A+ D A- D+ A C F B- F F F 42% 23% 35% B- F F F F A+ F C- F
0.86 56% 38% 9% -16 -1 0.68 18% 1.3 .23 12% .27 80% .21 1.22 50% 50% 67% +16 0 1.35 54% 1.2 .63 31% .34 73% .25
Dec
20		 Northern Illinois C- D A+ F F+ 53% 8% 39% A- D A A A+ D- F F F F C- F A+ B- 51% 5% 44% F C F F F B F F F
1.10 56% 75% 25% -4 +3 1.00 41% 1.3 .53 20% .24 54% .13 1.12 57% 50% 22% -8 +3 0.93 41% 1.3 .55 24% .68 74% .50
Dec
22		 Wisconsin D C- D+ F D 33% 37% 31% F+ D- F A+ D- A B C- B- D+ F A+ F F 41% 4% 54% F+ F C A+ A+ B- F A+ D-
0.91 53% 37% 25% -6 -2 0.85 6% 2.5 .15 12% .29 71% .20 1.31 79% 0% 48% +18 +2 1.43 31% 0.8 .24 13% .45 65% .29
Dec
30		 Ohio F A- D+ F F 53% 22% 25% C+ F F F F F+ B+ D B- C C+ F A+ A 55% 13% 32% F B B- F C- C F B+ F
0.83 67% 36% 0% -9 +1 0.86 21% 0.5 .11 19% .37 70% .26 1.04 55% 57% 18% -7 +2 0.92 25% 1.2 .30 16% .52 65% .34
Jan
3		 Toledo D+ C- D A+ C 38% 27% 35% F+ C- F A+ D- A D B D+ C- B+ B- C- B+ 37% 41% 22% A+ A- F+ A+ C+ F F D- F
1.07 57% 33% 42% +3 -1 1.05 13% 2.0 .25 13% .20 75% .15 1.12 50% 40% 36% -1 -3 0.94 35% 0.8 .27 10% .51 81% .41
Jan
6		 Akron D B- F+ D C- 48% 16% 36% B C F C+ F F A+ A+ A+ B- F F D F 44% 8% 48% F+ F F C- F A+ A A+ A+
0.97 62% 29% 31% -1 +1 1.02 18% 1.0 .18 24% .50 81% .41 1.15 73% 75% 38% +12 +2 1.30 42% 1.3 .54 27% .17 67% .12
Jan
10		 Kent St. B D+ B F D 34% 29% 37% F+ D- A- A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ C D B- A+ B A 38% 15% 47% D+ A- F F F B A B A
1.20 55% 41% 27% -4 -1 0.92 39% 1.4 .52 10% .35 70% .24 1.17 52% 13% 31% -8 +1 0.87 50% 1.4 .68 21% .30 71% .21
Jan
13		 Miami (OH) F D- B+ D- D+ 33% 35% 33% F+ D D+ F F F D- F F+ F F+ F F F 37% 16% 47% C- F C- F F D F F F
0.87 53% 44% 29% -2 -2 0.94 26% 0.4 .11 21% .22 67% .15 1.43 72% 50% 48% +17 0 1.37 24% 2.0 .48 13% .46 89% .41
Jan
20		 Ball St. C+ F B A+ A 33% 27% 40% D B+ C+ D- C- D F F F F D A- F F 41% 22% 37% C+ F F A C- F A D+ B+
1.14 33% 42% 61% +9 -1 1.18 34% 0.9 .31 20% .21 50% .11 1.15 60% 27% 39% +1 0 1.04 35% 0.7 .24 8% .20 73% .15
Jan
24		 Western Michigan F C- F F F 39% 14% 47% C F C A B- D- A+ B- A+ D+ C+ A B B 50% 15% 35% F C+ C- D+ D+ F F B F
0.96 58% 0% 17% -17 +1 0.69 29% 1.3 .39 16% .46 73% .33 1.13 52% 29% 31% -6 +2 0.93 30% 1.1 .33 10% .54 70% .38
Jan
27		 Eastern Michigan A+ C A+ A+ A+ 50% 20% 30% B- A+ C+ D- C- A- A C A- A- D+ F A C 38% 21% 40% D C- A+ F C A+ F A- F+
1.32 57% 73% 53% +15 +1 1.34 31% 0.9 .28 12% .39 73% .29 0.86 61% 50% 26% -1 0 1.00 17% 1.6 .28 25% .37 67% .25
Jan
31		 Bowling Green F C F F F 46% 28% 26% D+ F C+ A+ A C- F+ F F A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 59% 15% 25% D A B- A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+
0.88 57% 21% 15% -13 0 0.76 29% 1.5 .44 18% .26 47% .12 0.84 49% 22% 27% -11 +2 0.85 25% 0.4 .09 16% .20 58% .12
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Massachusetts A C C+ A+ A+ 35% 23% 42% D A+ A A- A+ F A+ F+ B+ F F F F F 48% 8% 44% F F D- F F F F D- F
1.27 60% 40% 72% +25 -1 1.51 38% 1.2 .46 30% .49 67% .33 1.36 70% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.31 36% 1.5 .54 13% .46 71% .33
Feb
7		 Louisiana A- D A+ A+ A+ 34% 25% 41% F+ A F+ A+ B+ A- C D+ C- F C F F F 28% 41% 30% B F F B F C+ F F F
1.25 53% 73% 44% +13 -1 1.27 24% 1.8 .43 14% .38 71% .27 1.33 54% 47% 64% +16 -3 1.28 45% 0.8 .34 17% .36 84% .30
Feb
14		 Northern Illinois A- C+ A+ A+ A+ 54% 28% 19% D+ A+ C- A+ A- B- F D+ F A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 40% 20% 40% B A+ D A+ A+ B+ F A+ C-
1.29 62% 60% 60% +15 0 1.33 29% 1.6 .46 15% .17 70% .12 0.67 44% 22% 22% -16 0 0.71 33% 0.1 .04 25% .53 44% .23
Feb
17		 Eastern Michigan F B- C F F 31% 38% 31% F F B- F D F A- F D B- F D C F 36% 36% 29% B+ F+ F D F A+ D- F+ F+
0.81 60% 39% 13% -9 -3 0.79 33% 0.7 .23 21% .38 50% .19 1.00 73% 40% 33% +6 -2 1.10 34% 1.1 .38 27% .31 80% .25
Feb
21		 Western Michigan D+ B B+ F C- 51% 15% 34% B- C- D C D+ D A+ A- A+ B+ B- A- A+ A+ 47% 25% 27% D+ A C F F B+ F D+ F
1.11 67% 43% 25% 0 +2 1.06 25% 1.1 .29 15% .60 76% .46 0.94 50% 31% 21% -11 0 0.80 30% 1.4 .41 20% .42 76% .32
Feb
24		 Kent St. A- A+ D- A+ A+ 26% 28% 47% F A- C A+ A+ F+ A- D B F+ D- D+ D+ F+ 39% 11% 50% D F+ F F F C+ F D F
1.21 75% 31% 45% +10 -2 1.19 30% 1.7 .50 19% .41 68% .28 1.24 65% 40% 36% +5 +1 1.14 47% 1.3 .60 19% .52 79% .41
Feb
28		 Buffalo B- D+ A A+ B+ 37% 23% 40% D B A+ F+ B- F A- A- A C+ D A+ B B+ 48% 10% 42% F B- B- F F F+ A+ A A+
1.18 56% 50% 47% +10 0 1.21 45% 0.8 .35 24% .35 82% .29 1.10 64% 0% 32% -2 +2 1.02 24% 1.6 .39 13% .16 67% .11
Mar
3		 Akron F+ F+ F A+ C 40% 21% 38% C- C F A+ D F+ F F+ F C+ D F C+ C 36% 10% 54% D+ C F B+ D- B- A- A+ A+
0.94 48% 27% 45% 0 0 1.02 18% 1.3 .24 22% .11 67% .08 1.13 67% 60% 33% +5 +1 1.14 42% 1.1 .48 18% .20 55% .11



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 33.4 33.4 7th
8th 12.7 12.7 8th
9th 9th
10th 53.9 53.9 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 53.9 46.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 46.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.3 45.8
6-12 53.9% 53.9
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 99.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.0%
Lose Out 53.9%