Massachusetts
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.4 183
Expected Predictive Rating -1.7 198
Pace 74.5 45
Improvement -2.4 280

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #165 C B D C+ C
Defense C- #210 C- C+ C D- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 117 58% 182 +1.3 130
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 125 39% 143 +1.2 109
Three Pointers 36% 282 33% 212 -2.9 282
1st FG Attempt 1.01 188 -0.4 187
Second Chance 32.3% 134 1.18 32 0.38 55
Turnovers 18.9% 302
Freethrows 0.34 78 67% 338 0.23 152
Total Offense -0.3 165

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 154 63% 309 -2.7 270
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 269 40% 243 +0.8 120
Three Pointers 43% 119 33% 116 -0.1 185
1st FG Attempt 1.06 241 -2.0 241
Second Chance 28.2% 92 1.04 211 0.29 127
Turnovers 17.3% 159
Freethrows 0.38 339 71% 119 0.27 327
Total Defense -1.1 210

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.1 211 +0.5 255
Shot Type Accuracy -0.3 180 +1.5 234
Possession Length 16.6 101 16.8 92
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 149 0.22 328
Improvement +3.6 #33 -6.0 #362

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 4% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.3 13.7 14.5
.500 or above 94% 100% 93%
.500 or above in Conference 58% 89% 54%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round3% 4% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Akron (Away) - 12.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 34 - 75 - 10
Quad 412 - 417 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 164 Marshall L 72 - 78 58% -5  11% 0 - 1 D -9 F -16 C F F B+ +8 D- B+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 325 Albany W 83 - 62 86% +7  75% 1 - 1 B- +8 D+ -4 F A+ D- A +11 A C- A+
 Thu, Nov 13 303 Le Moyne W 94 - 80 82% +11  97% 2 - 1 C+ +3 B- +5 A B F+ C- -3 C+ C F
 Sun, Nov 16 294 Central Connecticut St. W 84 - 77 81% +12  99% 3 - 1 C- -4 D- -7 D- A+ F C+ +2 C C+ C
 Fri, Nov 21 156 College of Charleston L 65 - 69 45% +1  50% 3 - 2 C- -4 F+ -8 B- B- F B- +4 B+ F F+
 Sat, Nov 22 244 Green Bay L 75 - 79 62% -4  17% 3 - 3 D -9 D+ -4 F A+ D+ D+ -5 D+ B- F+
 Mon, Nov 24 178 Oregon St. W 73 - 65 49% +2  73% 4 - 3 B- +7 C +1 D A+ D B+ +6 D- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 153 Harvard W 78 - 71 56% +10  98% 5 - 3 C+ +4 C- -2 A F F B +6 B+ C+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 318 Umass Lowell W 80 - 60 85% +8  84% 6 - 3 B- +7 F+ -9 D+ D- F A+ +14 B- B+ A
 Wed, Dec 10 129 Boston College W 76 - 74 37% +3  69% 7 - 3 C+ +4 B +5 D+ A+ F C -2 A C+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 93 Florida St. W 103 - 95 26% +5  77% 8 - 3 B+ +13 A+ +16 A A+ B+ D+ -4 F+ A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 20 147 Kent St. L 59 - 69 53% -5  14% 8 - 4 0 - 1 D- -12 F -19 F F F+ B+ +7 B- A- C-
 Tue, Dec 30 231 @Eastern Michigan L 74 - 80 48% -2  31% 8 - 5 0 - 2 D+ -7 D+ -3 F C+ A+ C- -3 C C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 158 Bowling Green L 100 - 101 OT 57% -0  37% 8 - 6 0 - 3 C- -4 B +6 A+ B- D F+ -10 F+ B F
 Tue, Jan 6 199 @Ohio L 83 - 86 43% -3  22% 8 - 7 0 - 4 C- -3 C+ +3 B F C D+ -5 F B C
 Sat, Jan 10 310 Ball St. W 79 - 71 84% +3  75% 9 - 7 1 - 4 C- -4 C +1 A F C+ D+ -5 F+ C D
 Tue, Jan 13 295 @Western Michigan W 85 - 82 63% +4  79% 10 - 7 2 - 4 C- -2 B+ +8 D+ A+ D+ F+ -9 F F D
 Sat, Jan 17 314 @Northern Illinois L 68 - 70 67% -3  8% 10 - 8 2 - 5 D -8 F -10 F D F B- +2 B B- D
 Tue, Jan 20 165 Toledo W 84 - 82 58% +2  66% 11 - 8 3 - 5 C -1 B- +4 B B+ D+ D+ -5 D- C+ A
 Fri, Jan 23 202 @Buffalo W 68 - 67 43% +7  78% 12 - 8 4 - 5 C +1 D -6 F+ B- D B+ +7 C- C B-
 Tue, Jan 27 87 @Miami (OH) L 84 - 86 16% +3  76% 12 - 9 4 - 6 B- +7 A+ +14 B+ A+ B+ D -7 A- F D
 Sat, Jan 31 231 Eastern Michigan W 70 - 67 70% +4  89% 13 - 9 5 - 6 C- -4 C- -2 D C A+ C- -2 D+ B+ A-
 Tue, Feb 3 296 Central Michigan W 95 - 89 81% -1  44% 14 - 9 6 - 6 C- -5 A +13 A+ A- B+ F -18 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 238 @Coastal Carolina L 91 - 94 3OT 50% +4  68% 14 - 10 C- -4 C+ +2 D A D+ D -6 F+ B F+
 Fri, Feb 13 72 @Akron L 78 - 90 13%
 Tue, Feb 17 87 Miami (OH) L 81 - 86 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 202 Buffalo W 81 - 77 65%
 Tue, Feb 24 310 @Ball St. W 74 - 69 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 158 @Bowling Green L 74 - 78 35%
 Tue, Mar 3 199 Ohio W 83 - 79 64%
Totals 17 - 13 9 - 9 -1 C +0 C B D C- -1 C- C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C C+ C- C 41% 23% 36% C C C+ B+ B D B- D- C+ C- D C- C+ C- 40% 18% 43% D+ C- B- C C+ C F+ C+ D-
1.08 58% 39% 33% 0 0 1.01 32% 1.2 .38 19% .34 67% .23 1.10 63% 40% 33% +1 0 1.06 28% 1.0 .29 17% .38 71% .24
Nov
3		 Marshall F C- A- D- C- 43% 22% 35% B- C F+ F F F A+ F A+ B+ F A- C+ D 33% 14% 53% F D- D A+ B+ A+ F C- F
0.88 57% 45% 29% -1 0 1.00 25% 0.4 .10 25% .58 58% .34 0.96 82% 29% 33% +6 +1 1.16 36% 0.8 .29 32% .34 74% .25
Nov
8		 Albany D+ D+ B F F 44% 14% 42% B- F B+ A+ A+ D- A+ F+ A+ A C A+ A+ A+ 40% 10% 50% D- A A- F C- A+ F D- F
1.12 55% 43% 19% -10 +1 0.84 42% 1.8 .76 18% .49 70% .34 0.84 58% 20% 21% -12 +1 0.81 24% 1.3 .30 26% .42 70% .29
Nov
13		 Le Moyne B- B+ A A A 41% 20% 39% C- A B+ C B F+ C A- C+ C- C A+ B B 46% 9% 46% F+ C+ B F C F F A D
1.23 64% 45% 43% +9 0 1.20 39% 1.1 .42 18% .32 80% .26 1.05 58% 20% 31% -4 +2 0.98 22% 1.3 .27 13% .42 64% .27
Nov
16		 Central Connecticut St. D- F+ D+ C D- 40% 19% 40% D+ D- A+ A+ A+ F A+ F C C+ C- A D- C+ 43% 31% 27% D- C A+ F C+ C F A+ F
1.08 48% 36% 35% -4 0 0.95 44% 1.3 .56 22% .41 48% .20 0.99 62% 27% 38% 0 -1 1.00 16% 1.6 .25 17% .48 68% .32
Nov
21		 College of Charleston F+ F+ A+ D B- 35% 22% 43% B- B- C+ B B- F C+ F D- B- D- D A+ A 40% 15% 45% D- B+ A+ F F F+ F F F
0.96 50% 70% 30% +2 0 1.04 32% 1.1 .35 22% .25 46% .11 1.02 68% 43% 14% -8 +1 0.87 11% 4.3 .48 13% .49 83% .41
Nov
22		 Green Bay D+ B- F F F 38% 16% 47% B- F B A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ D+ F+ C+ A D+ 56% 19% 26% D D+ C- A B- F+ F D- F
1.11 65% 29% 19% -9 +1 0.84 35% 2.1 .73 15% .45 85% .38 1.17 67% 38% 27% +2 +2 1.09 25% 0.9 .21 12% .59 80% .47
Nov
24		 Oregon St. C C C+ F D 50% 20% 30% C D A A- A+ D C- F F+ B+ F B+ C+ F 22% 20% 59% B+ D- C+ A+ A+ A+ B- A- B+
1.10 56% 40% 20% -7 +1 0.90 41% 1.2 .49 17% .31 59% .18 0.98 90% 33% 33% +6 -1 1.11 24% 0.3 .07 24% .34 71% .24
Dec
3		 Harvard C- B C A+ A+ 45% 27% 29% D A D- F F F A F+ B+ B C+ F A+ B+ 42% 27% 31% B+ B+ F+ A C+ C- C B- C+
1.07 64% 38% 50% +10 0 1.20 24% 0.7 .17 21% .36 67% .24 0.97 57% 60% 18% -2 -1 0.96 32% 0.8 .24 18% .25 80% .20
Dec
6		 Umass Lowell F+ C- A- D- C- 50% 28% 22% D D+ B- F D- F C- D D+ A+ A- F A+ B 57% 20% 24% F+ B- A C B+ A F A+ D+
1.05 57% 47% 31% +1 0 1.03 34% 0.8 .26 17% .27 71% .19 0.78 46% 67% 18% -7 +1 0.91 24% 1.0 .24 26% .48 48% .23
Dec
10		 Boston College B F A- F D+ 43% 33% 24% D D+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ F B+ C C- A+ A+ A+ 56% 4% 40% F A D- A C+ D F F F
1.08 43% 44% 25% -8 -1 0.84 44% 1.4 .59 21% .43 54% .23 1.05 60% 0% 11% -14 +3 0.80 35% 0.8 .28 13% .57 77% .44
Dec
13		 Florida St. A+ C F+ A+ A 49% 17% 34% A- A B- A+ A+ B+ B- C B- D+ F A C+ F 42% 7% 52% D F+ D- A+ A+ C+ D+ F F+
1.26 59% 30% 50% +7 +1 1.19 33% 1.6 .53 17% .31 71% .22 1.17 76% 25% 32% +5 +2 1.17 38% 0.5 .20 15% .33 83% .27
Dec
20		 Kent St. F D F A+ F 40% 32% 28% D- F F+ F F F+ A+ C- A B+ B+ F A+ B- 33% 18% 49% C+ B- A+ F+ A- C- A C- A-
0.83 53% 0% 46% -9 -1 0.81 22% 0.8 .17 20% .42 71% .30 0.98 50% 67% 25% -4 0 0.94 23% 1.3 .29 18% .29 76% .23
Dec
30		 Eastern Michigan D+ B- F F F 31% 31% 39% F F D A+ C+ A+ D F D- C- C+ C- C C 53% 28% 19% D- C C+ C+ C+ F F B F
1.01 61% 22% 26% -8 -2 0.81 25% 1.3 .31 10% .27 67% .18 1.10 56% 38% 33% -1 0 1.00 27% 0.9 .24 12% .61 69% .42
Jan
3		 Bowling Green B B D A+ A+ 54% 12% 35% A- A+ F+ A+ B- D A+ C- A+ F+ D A- F F+ 54% 18% 29% C F+ A+ F B F F A- F
1.15 64% 33% 50% +11 +2 1.29 20% 1.7 .33 21% .51 71% .36 1.16 63% 30% 44% +6 +1 1.16 14% 1.2 .17 11% .58 67% .39
Jan
6		 Ohio C+ B- B- B+ B 44% 25% 32% C- B D F F C D B- D+ D+ D- C F F 34% 17% 49% D+ F A+ F B C D+ B C
1.12 60% 43% 39% +4 0 1.11 30% 0.6 .19 16% .27 76% .21 1.16 67% 44% 42% +10 0 1.23 19% 1.2 .22 16% .34 67% .23
Jan
10		 Ball St. C A+ D+ B A 33% 20% 47% C A D F F C+ A+ F A+ D+ C A D- F+ 42% 15% 42% D- F+ A F C D C- C- C-
1.15 87% 33% 38% +12 0 1.24 29% 0.4 .13 17% .51 69% .35 1.03 55% 25% 36% -2 +1 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 15% .31 72% .22
Jan
13		 Western Michigan B+ C C C- D+ 29% 19% 52% D D+ B- A+ A+ D+ B A A- F+ C+ F F+ F 32% 15% 53% D+ F D- F F D C D C-
1.26 60% 40% 33% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.8 .60 15% .35 80% .28 1.21 53% 63% 39% +6 0 1.15 35% 1.3 .47 15% .28 75% .21
Jan
17		 Northern Illinois F F F D- F 49% 15% 36% B- F D D+ D F A+ D+ A+ B- C+ A+ A B+ 43% 2% 55% F B F+ A+ B- D F D+ F
0.93 48% 29% 29% -9 +1 0.87 28% 1.0 .28 25% .55 70% .38 0.96 52% 0% 26% -10 +3 0.88 38% 0.6 .23 19% .51 70% .36
Jan
20		 Toledo B- B- D- A+ B 45% 12% 43% B- B A- B- B+ D+ A+ D A+ D+ D- F+ F F 36% 34% 30% A- D- B- C C+ A F D F
1.19 64% 33% 43% +8 +2 1.20 43% 1.0 .43 20% .39 68% .26 1.16 65% 50% 43% +11 -2 1.19 26% 1.0 .26 21% .45 80% .36
Jan
23		 Buffalo D B- F+ F+ F+ 36% 28% 36% F+ F+ C+ B B- D B- F C- B+ F C- B- D 23% 26% 51% A+ C- A+ F C B- A A+ A+
1.03 65% 31% 29% -2 -1 0.96 34% 1.1 .37 20% .30 63% .19 1.01 82% 42% 33% +6 -2 1.11 17% 1.6 .28 18% .26 50% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Miami (OH) A+ B- A+ A A 27% 33% 39% F B+ B+ A+ A+ B+ C+ C C+ D B F B A 27% 9% 64% C- A- F F F D F B F
1.25 64% 53% 40% +10 -2 1.18 36% 1.3 .45 15% .30 76% .23 1.28 58% 50% 32% 0 +1 1.02 33% 1.7 .58 13% .65 74% .48
Jan
31		 Eastern Michigan C- B A+ F D- 55% 16% 30% B+ D C C C A+ A+ D+ A+ C- F F A+ D 30% 30% 41% B+ D+ B+ B B+ A- F F F
1.08 63% 57% 8% -6 +2 0.93 29% 1.0 .29 11% .60 71% .43 1.03 85% 46% 22% +3 -2 1.05 22% 0.8 .19 22% .35 89% .31
Feb
3		 Central Michigan A A- A+ A+ A+ 48% 8% 44% B+ A+ C A+ A- B+ A+ C+ A F D+ C F F 35% 23% 42% C- F F D F A+ F B- F
1.36 70% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.31 36% 1.5 .54 13% .46 71% .33 1.27 60% 40% 72% +25 -1 1.51 38% 1.2 .46 30% .49 67% .33
Feb
7		 Coastal Carolina C+ F A+ B D+ 31% 39% 31% D D A B A D+ B- F F+ D C B F F 25% 34% 41% B+ F+ D- A+ B F+ B A+ A
1.09 21% 54% 37% -4 -3 0.89 39% 1.1 .44 14% .32 48% .15 1.12 56% 33% 48% +7 -3 1.10 31% 0.6 .19 12% .22 50% .11



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.8 3rd
4th 1.0 7.3 4.7 0.4 13.4 4th
5th 0.3 8.9 10.2 0.9 0.0 20.3 5th
6th 0.1 4.7 16.0 2.3 0.0 23.0 6th
7th 1.8 15.7 5.8 0.1 23.3 7th
8th 0.8 8.3 7.1 0.2 16.3 8th
9th 1.1 1.4 0.1 2.5 9th
10th 0.3 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 2.3 11.5 27.8 31.8 19.8 6.2 0.7 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.7% 7.6% 7.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 6.2% 5.3% 5.3% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.9
10-8 19.8% 4.6% 4.6% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 18.9
9-9 31.8% 3.1% 3.1% 14.5 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 30.8
8-10 27.8% 1.9% 1.9% 15.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 27.3
7-11 11.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 11.4
6-12 2.3% 2.3
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 14.3 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 2.3%