Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#243
Expected Predictive Rating+3.3#124
Pace64.9#300
Improvement+1.7#68

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#285
First Shot-0.8#200
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#345
Layup/Dunks-2.6#270
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#32
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#246
Freethrows+0.5#152
Improvement+3.2#12

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#175
First Shot-2.6#258
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#62
Layups/Dunks-2.2#259
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#112
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#298
Freethrows+1.7#77
Improvement-1.5#301
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.6% 38.9% 31.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.7 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 89.0% 95.3% 85.3%
.500 or above in Conference 91.2% 91.6% 90.9%
Conference Champion 50.8% 58.4% 46.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.3% 0.7%
First Four12.7% 10.3% 14.0%
First Round27.5% 33.4% 24.1%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Away) - 37.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 32 - 33 - 4
Quad 416 - 618 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 154 @Quinnipiac L 49-71 24%     0 - 1 -19.0 -20.8 +1.5
  Tue, Nov 11 145 @Boston College W 60-59 21%     1 - 1 +5.0 -3.6 +8.6
  Sun, Nov 16 167 @Massachusetts L 77-84 26%     1 - 2 -4.8 +0.0 -4.1
  Fri, Nov 21 123 @Rutgers W 67-54 17%     2 - 2 +18.5 +6.0 +14.1
  Mon, Nov 24 256 Sacred Heart W 108-106 OT 64%     3 - 2 -6.2 +12.9 -19.4
  Wed, Dec 3 64 @Seton Hall L 61-77 7%     3 - 3 -4.4 +2.7 -8.7
  Sun, Dec 7 228 @Northeastern L 67-71 37%    
  Sat, Dec 13 354 @Binghamton W 70-64 70%    
  Thu, Dec 18 290 Fairfield W 72-66 70%    
  Fri, Jan 2 227 @LIU Brooklyn L 69-73 37%    
  Sun, Jan 4 332 New Haven W 69-60 79%    
  Thu, Jan 8 339 Stonehill W 71-61 81%    
  Sat, Jan 10 306 @Le Moyne W 74-73 52%    
  Sat, Jan 17 357 @St. Francis (PA) W 73-67 72%    
  Mon, Jan 19 324 @Mercyhurst W 66-64 57%    
  Fri, Jan 23 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-65 88%    
  Sun, Jan 25 339 @Stonehill W 68-64 62%    
  Thu, Jan 29 298 @Wagner W 68-67 50%    
  Sat, Jan 31 227 LIU Brooklyn W 72-70 58%    
  Thu, Feb 5 352 Chicago St. W 76-65 84%    
  Sat, Feb 7 298 Wagner W 71-65 71%    
  Thu, Feb 12 332 @New Haven W 66-63 59%    
  Sat, Feb 14 362 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-68 74%    
  Thu, Feb 19 306 Le Moyne W 77-70 72%    
  Sat, Feb 21 352 @Chicago St. W 73-68 68%    
  Thu, Feb 26 324 Mercyhurst W 69-61 76%    
  Sat, Feb 28 357 St. Francis (PA) W 76-64 86%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 5.7 10.1 12.4 10.2 6.8 46.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 5.5 6.7 3.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 19.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.3 4.2 1.4 0.1 11.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.1 0.7 0.0 7.3 4th
5th 0.2 1.7 2.1 0.5 0.0 4.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.5 3.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.5 4.5 6.6 9.5 11.9 13.9 14.0 13.5 10.5 6.8 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 99.7% 6.8    6.7 0.1
15-1 97.1% 10.2    9.6 0.6
14-2 91.4% 12.4    10.3 2.0 0.1
13-3 72.1% 10.1    6.2 3.5 0.4 0.0
12-4 41.2% 5.7    2.1 2.6 1.0 0.1 0.0
11-5 12.6% 1.5    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
10-6 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 46.8% 46.8 35.1 9.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 6.8% 56.9% 56.9% 14.7 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.9 0.5 2.9
15-1 10.5% 51.3% 51.3% 15.2 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.9 5.1
14-2 13.5% 44.3% 44.3% 15.6 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.9 7.5
13-3 14.0% 38.7% 38.7% 15.8 0.1 1.0 4.4 8.6
12-4 13.9% 30.6% 30.6% 15.9 0.0 0.3 3.9 9.6
11-5 11.9% 25.1% 25.1% 16.0 0.1 2.9 8.9
10-6 9.5% 19.6% 19.6% 16.0 0.0 1.8 7.6
9-7 6.6% 14.9% 14.9% 16.0 0.0 1.0 5.6
8-8 4.5% 10.9% 10.9% 16.0 0.5 4.0
7-9 2.5% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.3 2.3
6-10 1.3% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.1 1.2
5-11 0.6% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-12 0.2% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-13 0.1% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 31.6% 31.6% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.3 2.2 8.0 21.2 68.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.3 9.0 53.7 34.3 3.0