New Haven
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.5#346
Expected Predictive Rating-5.1#240
Pace64.8#303
Improvement+0.4#153

Offense
Total Offense-8.8#359
First Shot-4.5#301
After Offensive Rebound-4.3#353
Layup/Dunks-0.9#210
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#297
Freethrows-2.8#321
Improvement+0.1#168

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#257
First Shot-2.9#273
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#173
Layups/Dunks-1.2#219
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#154
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#318
Freethrows+2.0#69
Improvement+0.3#155
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 17.8% 40.0% 16.4%
.500 or above in Conference 54.7% 69.2% 53.8%
Conference Champion 6.5% 10.6% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 12.5% 6.7% 12.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston College (Away) - 6.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 40 - 8
Quad 410 - 1011 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 5 @Connecticut L 55-79 0.4%    0 - 1 -0.5 -3.5 +1.8
  Fri, Nov 7 140 Columbia L 53-71 17%     0 - 2 -19.5 -18.1 -2.6
  Sat, Nov 8 96 Penn St. L 43-87 11%     0 - 3 -41.9 -25.7 -21.7
  Mon, Nov 10 314 @Umass Lowell W 73-67 28%     1 - 3 +0.6 -1.8 +2.5
  Sat, Nov 15 355 Delaware St. W 65-52 69%     2 - 3 -3.5 -8.6 +5.9
  Tue, Nov 18 76 @Seton Hall L 45-68 3%     2 - 4 -12.5 -15.0 -0.6
  Sat, Dec 6 132 @Boston College L 56-72 6%    
  Wed, Dec 10 351 @NJIT L 66-68 42%    
  Mon, Dec 22 211 @Fordham L 59-70 15%    
  Mon, Dec 29 12 @Vanderbilt L 56-89 0.1%   
  Fri, Jan 2 338 @Stonehill L 63-66 38%    
  Sun, Jan 4 244 @Central Connecticut St. L 59-69 18%    
  Thu, Jan 8 321 @Le Moyne L 70-75 31%    
  Sat, Jan 10 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 74-68 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 297 Wagner L 66-67 48%    
  Mon, Jan 19 350 @Chicago St. L 68-71 40%    
  Fri, Jan 23 328 Mercyhurst W 65-64 55%    
  Sun, Jan 25 356 St. Francis (PA) W 71-66 68%    
  Thu, Jan 29 328 @Mercyhurst L 62-67 34%    
  Sat, Jan 31 356 @St. Francis (PA) L 68-69 48%    
  Thu, Feb 5 230 @LIU Brooklyn L 64-74 17%    
  Sat, Feb 7 350 Chicago St. W 71-68 62%    
  Thu, Feb 12 244 Central Connecticut St. L 62-66 37%    
  Sat, Feb 14 230 LIU Brooklyn L 67-71 35%    
  Thu, Feb 19 338 Stonehill W 66-63 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 362 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 71-70 51%    
  Thu, Feb 26 297 @Wagner L 63-70 28%    
  Sat, Feb 28 321 Le Moyne W 73-72 53%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.3 6.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.9 3.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.7 4.9 3.1 0.8 0.1 10.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 5.7 3.6 0.6 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 5.5 3.8 0.6 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 5.3 4.5 0.7 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.3 5.2 1.1 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 3.5 4.8 1.3 0.1 10.6 8th
9th 0.2 1.3 2.9 3.5 1.2 0.1 9.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.3 2.0 0.7 0.1 7.4 10th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.7 5.8 8.5 11.4 13.3 13.2 12.1 10.5 7.3 5.6 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.3 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-1 93.9% 0.7    0.6 0.1
14-2 79.3% 1.3    1.0 0.3
13-3 54.8% 1.8    1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-4 28.8% 1.6    0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0
11-5 7.8% 0.6    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 6.5% 6.5 3.5 2.1 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.3% 0.3
15-1 0.8% 0.8
14-2 1.7% 1.7
13-3 3.4% 3.4
12-4 5.6% 5.6
11-5 7.3% 7.3
10-6 10.5% 10.5
9-7 12.1% 12.1
8-8 13.2% 13.2
7-9 13.3% 13.3
6-10 11.4% 11.4
5-11 8.5% 8.5
4-12 5.8% 5.8
3-13 3.7% 3.7
2-14 1.9% 1.9
1-15 0.5% 0.5
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%