Fairleigh Dickinson
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.4 #348
Expected Predictive Rating -15.0 #350
Pace 67.0 #235
Improvement +3.6 #39

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #337 D D- D D+ C
Defense #328 F B+ C- C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #334 1.09 #255 -5.0 #334
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #252 0.83 #79 -0.8 #218
Three Pointers 51% #19 0.88 #336 +1.7 #123
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #291 -4.1 #291
Freethrows 16.8 #236 68% #310 11.4 #273
Second Chance 30.2% #192 0.84 #359 0.25 #312
Turnovers 18.1% #287
Total Offense -6.9 #337

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #208 1.35 #354 -3.3 #290
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #288 0.75 #150 +1.4 #86
Three Pointers 45% #68 1.20 #358 -6.2 #356
1st FG Attempt 1.18 #359 -8.1 #359
Freethrows 19.5 #280 71% #95 13.8 #260
Second Chance 27.5% #70 0.93 #45 0.26 #40
Turnovers 15.4% #241
Total Defense -5.5 #328

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #197 0.8% #245
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.9% #305 14.9% #360
Possession Length 18.8 #319 16.6 #67
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.08 #362 0.20 #263
Improvement -1.8 #284 +5.4 #6

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 7.1% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 53.9% 78.0% 47.7%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.9% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 5.7% 1.4% 6.8%
First Four4.6% 7.0% 4.0%
First Round1.8% 2.9% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Away) - 20.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 8
Quad 48 - 138 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 8 @Iowa St. L 50 - 88 0% -24  0 - 1 -15 -11 F C D+ -3 F A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 220 @St. Peter's L 83 - 93 14% -7  0 - 2 -11 +8 A+ A F -18 F B D
 Wed, Nov 12 38 @Texas L 58 - 93 1% -17  0 - 3 -19 -13 F F A- -5 F A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 15 336 @NJIT L 81 - 93 34% -11  0 - 4 -20 -1 F D C -18 F C A+
 Mon, Nov 24 308 East Texas A&M L 65 - 70 46% +5  0 - 5 -16 -8 B- C- F -9 F B+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 333 Army L 73 - 81 56% -2  0 - 6 -22 -6 F A A+ -17 D- D+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 65 @Providence L 64 - 94 2% -23  0 - 7 -19 -3 C- C F -17 F B- C
 Wed, Dec 10 193 @Fordham L 54 - 75 11% -11  0 - 8 -20 -13 C F F -9 F C B-
 Mon, Dec 22 134 @Boston College L 61 - 72 7% +2  0 - 9 -6 +4 C D A+ -12 F F F
 Mon, Dec 29 71 @Minnesota L 43 - 60 3% -7  0 - 10 -6 -18 F F F +9 A+ B+ A
 Fri, Jan 2 306 @Mercyhurst W 74 - 67 25% -0  1 - 10 1 - 0 +2 +8 A+ F F -6 C C+ B+
 Sun, Jan 4 358 @St. Francis (PA) L 82 - 85 48% +0  1 - 11 1 - 1 -15 +2 F C- A+ -17 F F F
 Thu, Jan 8 357 Chicago St. W 70 - 63 68% +9  2 - 11 2 - 1 -10 -7 F F D -3 F A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 331 @New Haven L 55 - 65 32% -10  2 - 12 2 - 2 -18 -12 F F B -7 F B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 222 LIU Brooklyn L 59 - 66 29% -2  2 - 13 2 - 3 -14 -12 F F C- -2 F A+ C
 Mon, Jan 19 326 Wagner W 68 - 61 54% +4  3 - 13 3 - 3 -6 +1 D+ A F -6 B- A+ F
 Fri, Jan 23 277 @Central Connecticut St. L 67 - 76 20%
 Sun, Jan 25 278 Le Moyne L 72 - 75 40%
 Thu, Jan 29 339 @Stonehill L 65 - 69 35%
 Sat, Jan 31 326 @Wagner L 69 - 74 32%
 Thu, Feb 5 339 Stonehill W 68 - 66 57%
 Sat, Feb 7 306 Mercyhurst L 66 - 67 46%
 Thu, Feb 12 358 St. Francis (PA) W 76 - 71 69%
 Sat, Feb 14 277 Central Connecticut St. L 70 - 73 39%
 Thu, Feb 19 357 @Chicago St. L 71 - 72 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 331 New Haven W 66 - 65 55%
 Thu, Feb 26 278 @Le Moyne L 69 - 78 21%
 Sat, Feb 28 222 @LIU Brooklyn L 67 - 79 14%
Totals 8 - 20 8 - 10 -12 -7 D D- D -5 F B+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 6.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.1 5.3 1.2 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 5.0 7.5 2.3 0.1 15.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 5.1 9.5 3.5 0.2 18.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 4.2 9.7 4.4 0.3 19.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.1 7.3 4.1 0.4 15.2 8th
9th 0.2 1.7 4.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 9.0 9th
10th 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.0 2.0 10th
Total 0.6 2.9 8.3 14.6 19.7 19.8 15.8 10.6 5.2 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-2 85.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-3 43.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-4 14.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-5 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.0% 0.0
14-2 0.1% 25.0% 25.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
13-3 0.5% 23.8% 23.8% 16.0 0.1 0.4
12-4 2.0% 13.1% 13.1% 16.0 0.3 1.7
11-5 5.2% 11.4% 11.4% 16.0 0.6 4.6
10-6 10.6% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.9 9.7
9-7 15.8% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.9 14.9
8-8 19.8% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.8 19.0
7-9 19.7% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.6 19.1
6-10 14.6% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 14.3
5-11 8.3% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 8.1
4-12 2.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 2.9
3-13 0.6% 0.6
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 16.0 95.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%