Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.5#324
Expected Predictive Rating-10.0#306
Pace62.5#346
Improvement-2.7#331

Offense
Total Offense-5.8#323
First Shot-6.1#337
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#159
Layup/Dunks-2.1#250
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#6
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.4#325
Freethrows-5.2#359
Improvement+1.3#79

Defense
Total Defense-3.8#298
First Shot-2.5#255
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#275
Layups/Dunks-1.7#239
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#64
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#194
Freethrows-2.3#311
Improvement-4.0#360
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 19.2% 41.5% 17.0%
.500 or above in Conference 61.0% 72.9% 59.8%
Conference Champion 6.0% 10.5% 5.6%
Last Place in Conference 7.7% 3.9% 8.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Davidson (Away) - 9.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 31 - 7
Quad 410 - 911 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 61 @Northwestern L 47-70 3%     0 - 1 -11.0 -20.3 +8.5
  Thu, Nov 6 260 @Loyola Chicago W 73-65 25%     1 - 1 +5.6 +0.5 +5.4
  Wed, Nov 12 355 @Canisius L 55-58 53%     1 - 2 -13.2 -13.9 +0.2
  Sat, Nov 15 358 Morgan St. W 86-72 76%     2 - 2 -3.0 +7.2 -9.7
  Thu, Nov 20 112 @Miami (OH) L 71-76 7%     2 - 3 +1.7 +5.5 -4.1
  Sun, Nov 23 172 @Marshall L 60-69 14%     2 - 4 -7.1 -5.5 -2.6
  Sun, Nov 30 71 @West Virginia L 38-70 4%     2 - 5 -21.0 -22.0 -3.9
  Fri, Dec 5 327 @Lafayette L 71-79 40%     2 - 6 -14.8 +2.9 -18.6
  Sat, Dec 13 138 @Davidson L 60-74 9%    
  Wed, Dec 17 60 @Syracuse L 57-79 2%    
  Sat, Dec 20 354 Binghamton W 70-63 73%    
  Fri, Jan 2 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-67 78%    
  Sun, Jan 4 306 Le Moyne W 74-72 56%    
  Thu, Jan 8 227 @LIU Brooklyn L 66-75 21%    
  Sat, Jan 10 298 @Wagner L 65-70 33%    
  Sat, Jan 17 339 Stonehill W 68-63 67%    
  Mon, Jan 19 243 Central Connecticut St. L 64-66 43%    
  Fri, Jan 23 332 @New Haven L 63-65 42%    
  Sun, Jan 25 352 Chicago St. W 73-67 71%    
  Thu, Jan 29 332 New Haven W 66-62 63%    
  Sat, Jan 31 352 @Chicago St. W 71-70 51%    
  Thu, Feb 5 357 St. Francis (PA) W 73-66 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 362 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 72-70 58%    
  Thu, Feb 19 298 Wagner W 68-67 54%    
  Sat, Feb 21 227 LIU Brooklyn L 69-72 41%    
  Thu, Feb 26 243 @Central Connecticut St. L 61-69 24%    
  Sat, Feb 28 339 @Stonehill L 65-66 45%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 6.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 3.9 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 9.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 5.5 3.7 0.8 0.1 12.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 6.4 4.4 0.8 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 6.0 4.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 13.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 5.4 5.4 1.1 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.2 5.2 1.2 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.3 4.2 1.3 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 2.8 0.9 0.1 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.0 4.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.3 7.4 10.5 13.6 14.7 14.4 12.4 9.2 5.8 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 97.7% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-2 85.1% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
13-3 63.5% 1.9    1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-4 32.9% 1.9    0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1
11-5 8.8% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 6.0% 6.0 2.8 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.3% 0.3
14-2 1.1% 1.1
13-3 3.0% 3.0
12-4 5.8% 5.8
11-5 9.2% 9.2
10-6 12.4% 12.4
9-7 14.4% 14.4
8-8 14.7% 14.7
7-9 13.6% 13.6
6-10 10.5% 10.5
5-11 7.4% 7.4
4-12 4.3% 4.3
3-13 2.2% 2.2
2-14 0.8% 0.8
1-15 0.2% 0.2
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%