Northwestern
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.2#60
Expected Predictive Rating+8.6#76
Pace65.7#283
Improvement-1.8#307

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#51
First Shot+4.9#55
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#95
Layup/Dunks+6.5#20
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#167
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#254
Freethrows+0.5#146
Improvement+0.6#130

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#90
First Shot+3.6#67
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#241
Layups/Dunks+2.8#85
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#259
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#77
Freethrows-1.4#272
Improvement-2.4#341
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.1% 3.6% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.0% 29.4% 13.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 19.9% 29.2% 13.2%
Average Seed 8.9 8.8 9.1
.500 or above 58.2% 73.3% 47.4%
.500 or above in Conference 25.2% 38.1% 16.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 2.6% 8.7%
First Four4.8% 6.5% 3.7%
First Round17.5% 26.2% 11.3%
Second Round8.5% 12.9% 5.4%
Sweet Sixteen2.1% 3.2% 1.3%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.0% 0.6%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Home) - 41.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b1 - 43 - 12
Quad 24 - 37 - 15
Quad 34 - 111 - 15
Quad 46 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 328 Mercyhurst W 70-47 97%     1 - 0 +10.4 -5.8 +17.0
  Fri, Nov 7 235 Boston University W 76-52 93%     2 - 0 +16.5 +8.0 +12.4
  Mon, Nov 10 308 Cleveland St. W 110-63 96%     3 - 0 +35.9 +23.3 +10.2
  Fri, Nov 14 121 @DePaul W 81-79 62%     4 - 0 +8.0 +14.6 -6.5
  Fri, Nov 21 26 Virginia L 78-83 31%     4 - 1 +9.4 +8.8 +0.7
  Sun, Nov 23 89 South Carolina W 79-77 63%     5 - 1 +7.8 +16.3 -8.3
  Thu, Nov 27 47 Oklahoma St. L 81-86 43%     5 - 2 +6.0 +9.5 -3.3
  Wed, Dec 3 36 @Wisconsin L 73-85 26%     5 - 3 0 - 1 +4.0 +8.0 -4.1
  Sat, Dec 6 25 Ohio St. L 74-76 42%    
  Sat, Dec 13 312 Jackson St. W 82-61 97%    
  Tue, Dec 16 214 Valparaiso W 77-62 92%    
  Sat, Dec 20 44 Butler L 76-78 42%    
  Tue, Dec 30 315 Howard W 85-64 97%    
  Sat, Jan 3 95 Minnesota W 72-65 75%    
  Thu, Jan 8 10 @Michigan St. L 64-77 12%    
  Sun, Jan 11 120 @Rutgers W 72-69 61%    
  Wed, Jan 14 17 Illinois L 75-80 33%    
  Sat, Jan 17 49 Nebraska W 76-75 55%    
  Wed, Jan 21 32 @USC L 74-81 26%    
  Sat, Jan 24 31 @UCLA L 67-74 25%    
  Thu, Jan 29 96 Penn St. W 79-72 73%    
  Sat, Jan 31 57 Washington W 76-73 60%    
  Wed, Feb 4 17 @Illinois L 72-83 16%    
  Sun, Feb 8 27 @Iowa L 66-74 24%    
  Wed, Feb 11 1 Michigan L 69-83 11%    
  Sat, Feb 14 49 @Nebraska L 73-78 34%    
  Wed, Feb 18 86 Maryland W 77-71 70%    
  Tue, Feb 24 24 @Indiana L 69-77 23%    
  Sat, Feb 28 80 Oregon W 76-71 67%    
  Wed, Mar 4 2 Purdue L 68-78 19%    
  Sat, Mar 7 95 @Minnesota W 69-68 54%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.2 1.0 0.1 4.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.1 2.2 0.2 6.3 8th
9th 0.4 3.0 3.6 0.7 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.1 2.1 4.8 1.9 0.1 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 1.2 4.7 3.5 0.4 9.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 4.0 5.3 1.2 0.0 11.3 12th
13th 0.2 2.5 5.5 2.1 0.1 10.4 13th
14th 0.1 1.4 4.6 3.1 0.3 0.0 9.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.7 3.3 3.6 0.6 0.0 8.2 15th
16th 0.4 2.2 3.2 1.0 0.0 6.9 16th
17th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.8 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.0 5.8 9.2 12.5 14.6 14.9 13.3 10.4 6.7 4.1 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 66.7% 0.0    0.0
16-4 21.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 6.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 10.8% 89.2% 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.3% 100.0% 1.9% 98.1% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.1% 98.8% 1.8% 97.0% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
13-7 2.3% 97.3% 1.4% 95.8% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.2%
12-8 4.1% 91.6% 0.5% 91.1% 8.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.4 91.5%
11-9 6.7% 72.2% 0.2% 72.0% 9.2 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.5 0.7 1.9 72.1%
10-10 10.4% 47.8% 0.3% 47.5% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 1.7 0.0 5.4 47.7%
9-11 13.3% 15.5% 0.0% 15.4% 10.6 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.4 0.1 11.3 15.4%
8-12 14.9% 2.8% 2.8% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 14.5 2.8%
7-13 14.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.5 0.2%
6-14 12.5% 12.5
5-15 9.2% 9.2
4-16 5.8% 5.8
3-17 3.0% 3.0
2-18 1.2% 1.2
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 20.0% 0.2% 19.8% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.2 3.8 4.5 4.2 0.2 80.0 19.9%