Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Michigan 100.0%   1   11 - 0 2 - 0 28 - 3 18 - 2 +26.8      +12.7 4 +14.2 1 79.7 11 +27.4 3 +20.9 4
5 Purdue 100.0%   1   11 - 1 2 - 0 25 - 6 16 - 4 +21.8      +13.8 1 +8.0 19 63.7 327 +24.1 9 +18.6 5
10 Illinois 99.3%   3   9 - 3 1 - 1 23 - 8 14 - 6 +20.0      +12.7 3 +7.3 24 69.7 181 +17.2 23 +14.6 7
16 Michigan St. 99.2%   3   11 - 1 2 - 0 23 - 8 13 - 7 +17.4      +6.8 47 +10.6 7 66.2 268 +23.3 10 +26.0 3
18 Iowa 91.1%   6   10 - 2 1 - 1 22 - 9 12 - 8 +16.5      +8.6 25 +7.9 20 61.7 352 +16.5 25 +11.7 11
25 Nebraska 97.2%   5   12 - 0 2 - 0 23 - 8 12 - 8 +15.1      +8.3 28 +6.8 28 68.8 202 +26.8 5 +34.7 1
29 Indiana 68.4%   9   10 - 3 1 - 1 19 - 12 10 - 10 +14.6      +7.1 43 +7.6 22 69.8 174 +10.2 58 +4.1 15
30 UCLA 79.6%   8   10 - 3 2 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 8 +14.4      +8.8 23 +5.6 39 65.3 291 +13.1 43 +26.4 2
31 Ohio St. 74.4%   8   9 - 3 1 - 1 19 - 12 11 - 9 +14.1      +8.8 22 +5.3 46 70.1 165 +11.9 49 +14.5 8
38 USC 76.3%   9   11 - 1 1 - 1 20 - 10 10 - 10 +12.5      +7.3 40 +5.3 45 74.4 58 +18.0 18 +10.0 12
46 Wisconsin 31.3%   8 - 4 1 - 1 17 - 14 9 - 11 +11.1      +6.1 57 +5.0 51 72.8 88 +9.3 65 +12.1 10
48 Washington 34.3%   8 - 4 1 - 1 17 - 14 9 - 11 +10.8      +5.5 63 +5.3 42 69.1 196 +8.4 72 +13.5 9
56 Oregon 8.5%   6 - 6 0 - 2 14 - 17 7 - 13 +9.2      +6.2 56 +3.0 85 69.3 192 +4.7 102 -3.0 18
57 Northwestern 9.9%   7 - 5 0 - 2 15 - 16 7 - 13 +9.0      +5.5 64 +3.5 74 67.5 235 +5.9 91 -2.8 17
94 Maryland 1.8%   6 - 6 0 - 2 13 - 18 6 - 14 +5.9      +3.0 101 +2.9 91 71.6 122 +5.9 93 +6.1 14
96 Minnesota 2.2%   7 - 5 1 - 1 14 - 17 7 - 13 +5.8      +2.6 110 +3.2 81 60.3 362 +3.0 128 +18.2 6
126 Penn St. 0.1%   8 - 4 0 - 2 13 - 18 4 - 16 +2.3      +3.2 98 -0.9 198 70.4 155 +3.8 115 +0.6 16
147 Rutgers 0.0%   6 - 6 0 - 2 11 - 20 4 - 16 +0.9      -0.5 176 +1.4 123 67.3 244 -0.2 167 +6.7 13




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 20 21 North Carolina 71 31 Ohio St. 70   
Sat, Dec 20 34 Auburn 60 5 Purdue 88   
Sat, Dec 20 50 Butler 61 57 Northwestern 58   
Sat, Dec 20 94 Maryland 72 26 Virginia 80   
Sat, Dec 20 16 Michigan St. 79 137 Oakland 70   
Sat, Dec 20 240 Penn 69 147 Rutgers 70   
Sat, Dec 20 308 Bucknell 39 18 Iowa 94   
Sat, Dec 20 336 Chicago St. 58 29 Indiana 78   
Sun, Dec 21 6 Gonzaga 91 56 Oregon 82   
Sun, Dec 21 126 Penn St. 46 84 Pittsburgh 80   
Sun, Dec 21 225 Campbell 50 96 Minnesota 78   
Sun, Dec 21 233 La Salle 50 1 Michigan 102   
Sun, Dec 21 25 Nebraska 78 333 North Dakota 55   
Mon, Dec 22 10 Illinois 91 60 Missouri 48   
Mon, Dec 22 29 Indiana 81 179 Siena 60   
Mon, Dec 22 260 San Diego 56 48 Washington 86   
Mon, Dec 22 323 Central Michigan 61 46 Wisconsin 88   
Tue, Dec 23 245 Grambling St. 63 31 Ohio St. 89   
Tue, Dec 23 272 UC Riverside 65 30 UCLA 97   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 28 94 Maryland 82 217 Old Dominion 70 87%   
Sun, Dec 28 221 Nebraska Omaha 69 56 Oregon 85 92%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th
Michigan 1.4 73.6 17.2 5.5 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Purdue 2.8 24.8 32.7 16.9 9.9 6.2 3.8 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Illinois 3.9 9.0 21.0 22.9 16.1 11.5 7.9 4.8 3.1 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Michigan St. 4.8 5.8 13.5 17.7 16.1 13.5 10.6 7.8 5.6 3.6 2.5 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Iowa 6.3 2.1 7.0 10.4 12.2 12.5 12.4 10.8 9.2 7.3 5.7 4.1 2.8 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Nebraska 6.0 2.5 8.2 12.4 13.2 12.7 12.3 10.4 8.4 6.6 5.0 3.6 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Indiana 8.3 0.4 2.3 4.5 6.2 7.9 9.7 10.9 11.5 11.3 10.4 8.5 6.5 4.6 2.8 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0
UCLA 6.4 1.8 6.7 10.3 12.0 12.5 12.3 11.5 9.3 7.7 6.0 4.2 2.8 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Ohio St. 7.6 0.8 2.8 5.5 8.1 10.0 11.2 11.9 11.6 10.5 8.5 7.0 5.0 3.5 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
USC 9.1 0.2 1.2 2.8 4.5 6.3 8.3 9.5 10.4 11.3 11.1 10.1 8.5 6.5 4.4 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.1
Wisconsin 10.2 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.4 3.9 5.3 7.2 9.0 10.4 11.3 12.1 11.4 9.4 6.9 4.7 2.6 1.1 0.3
Washington 10.2 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.6 4.1 5.6 7.2 9.1 10.6 11.4 11.5 10.9 9.1 7.0 4.8 2.7 1.2 0.2
Oregon 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.7 2.7 3.7 5.4 7.3 9.3 11.4 13.2 13.7 12.0 9.7 5.8 2.4
Northwestern 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.9 3.1 4.6 6.6 9.0 11.8 13.6 14.2 13.3 10.4 6.4 2.6
Maryland 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.6 5.2 7.8 10.6 13.7 16.2 16.4 13.7 7.4
Minnesota 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.8 2.7 4.1 6.1 8.3 10.3 12.7 14.5 14.6 12.2 7.6 3.0
Penn St. 16.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.5 3.8 6.9 11.1 17.3 26.4 29.6
Rutgers 16.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.2 4.2 6.7 11.2 16.8 24.0 32.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Michigan 18 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.8 6.4 12.2 19.6 24.9 22.3 10.4
Purdue 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.4 4.9 8.4 13.1 16.2 17.8 16.3 11.7 5.7 1.6
Illinois 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.5 5.7 9.8 14.8 18.3 18.9 15.2 9.0 3.5 0.7
Michigan St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.0 5.7 9.7 13.5 16.8 17.4 14.4 9.8 5.1 2.1 0.5 0.0
Iowa 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.2 7.4 10.8 14.0 15.8 15.8 12.5 8.6 4.8 1.9 0.5 0.1
Nebraska 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.6 6.4 10.0 13.1 15.7 16.0 13.9 9.7 5.6 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
Indiana 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.1 6.0 9.7 13.4 16.3 16.0 13.6 9.7 6.1 3.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
UCLA 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.9 4.2 7.5 11.2 14.8 16.3 15.1 12.4 8.3 4.6 1.9 0.5 0.2 0.0
Ohio St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.0 4.4 7.7 11.4 15.1 16.3 15.0 12.3 7.8 4.4 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
USC 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 5.1 8.4 12.2 14.9 16.0 14.6 11.1 7.5 4.0 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 4.4 8.0 12.1 15.6 16.2 14.8 11.6 7.8 4.0 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Washington 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.8 4.2 8.3 11.8 14.7 16.1 15.1 11.7 7.7 4.7 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Oregon 7 - 13 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.1 8.0 12.5 15.6 16.2 14.6 11.6 7.4 4.3 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 7 - 13 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.5 9.0 13.5 16.4 17.3 14.5 10.4 6.4 3.4 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Maryland 6 - 14 0.3 1.7 5.1 10.4 14.7 17.8 16.3 13.9 9.4 5.8 3.0 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Minnesota 7 - 13 0.4 1.9 5.6 10.5 14.8 17.0 16.4 13.4 9.5 5.5 3.0 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Penn St. 4 - 16 2.6 9.1 16.5 20.7 19.5 14.3 9.0 5.0 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rutgers 4 - 16 3.1 10.0 16.8 19.9 18.6 14.2 8.8 4.9 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Michigan 73.6% 58.4 12.8 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Purdue 24.8% 14.2 8.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Illinois 9.0% 3.8 3.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Michigan St. 5.8% 2.6 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Iowa 2.1% 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nebraska 2.5% 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Indiana 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
UCLA 1.8% 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ohio St. 0.8% 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
USC 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oregon 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Northwestern 0.0% 0.0
Maryland 0.0% 0.0
Minnesota
Penn St.
Rutgers


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Michigan 100.0% 51.6% 48.4% 1   78.5 18.9 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Purdue 100.0% 18.8% 81.2% 1   35.5 32.9 18.2 8.0 3.3 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Illinois 99.3% 11.5% 87.8% 3   8.6 15.3 20.6 20.1 14.4 9.5 5.6 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.7 99.3%
Michigan St. 99.2% 5.2% 94.0% 3   5.0 12.0 21.0 20.9 17.2 11.1 5.9 3.0 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.8 99.2%
Iowa 91.1% 3.8% 87.3% 6   1.4 3.3 8.3 12.5 13.8 14.1 12.6 9.3 7.2 5.1 3.3 0.1 8.9 90.7%
Nebraska 97.2% 2.6% 94.5% 5   1.7 5.8 13.2 17.4 17.7 15.5 10.4 6.2 4.6 2.8 1.9 0.1 2.8 97.1%
Indiana 68.4% 1.7% 66.7% 9   0.1 0.4 1.3 3.7 6.1 8.2 10.5 11.8 10.3 9.0 6.6 0.3 0.0 31.6 67.8%
UCLA 79.6% 1.8% 77.8% 8   0.2 0.6 2.4 5.5 9.0 11.6 13.6 12.9 10.5 7.8 5.3 0.3 0.0 20.4 79.2%
Ohio St. 74.4% 1.5% 72.9% 8   0.1 0.5 1.8 3.8 7.3 9.9 12.7 13.1 10.5 8.3 6.1 0.3 25.6 74.0%
USC 76.3% 0.7% 75.6% 9   0.1 0.4 1.7 3.6 7.3 10.9 12.4 12.3 11.1 9.4 6.7 0.4 0.0 23.7 76.1%
Wisconsin 31.3% 0.4% 30.9% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.5 5.1 5.9 6.6 6.6 0.4 68.7 31.0%
Washington 34.3% 0.3% 34.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.8 6.3 7.1 7.1 6.5 0.4 0.0 65.7 34.1%
Oregon 8.5% 0.1% 8.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.7 0.2 0.0 91.5 8.5%
Northwestern 9.9% 0.1% 9.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.9 2.3 3.1 0.2 0.0 90.1 9.8%
Maryland 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.1 98.2 1.8%
Minnesota 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.1 97.8 2.2%
Penn St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Michigan 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.7% 88.7% 72.4% 54.2% 38.8% 27.3%
Purdue 100.0% 0.0% 99.9% 97.2% 73.8% 47.0% 26.0% 13.9% 6.8%
Illinois 99.3% 0.4% 99.2% 89.2% 58.1% 30.0% 14.8% 6.9% 3.0%
Michigan St. 99.2% 0.6% 99.0% 84.0% 47.8% 20.6% 8.6% 3.6% 1.3%
Iowa 91.1% 3.7% 89.6% 66.8% 31.1% 12.8% 5.2% 2.0% 0.7%
Nebraska 97.2% 2.2% 96.1% 70.9% 32.0% 11.1% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4%
Indiana 68.4% 7.7% 65.3% 41.1% 14.1% 5.5% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2%
UCLA 79.6% 6.1% 76.8% 48.4% 16.8% 5.9% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Ohio St. 74.4% 6.9% 71.3% 43.8% 14.8% 5.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
USC 76.3% 7.9% 72.2% 40.1% 11.7% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Wisconsin 31.3% 7.7% 27.5% 13.6% 3.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Washington 34.3% 7.4% 30.6% 14.3% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Oregon 8.5% 3.1% 7.1% 3.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern 9.9% 3.5% 8.3% 3.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 1.8% 0.9% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota 2.2% 0.8% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.7 0.0 1.0 9.0 30.4 38.2 18.3 3.0 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 9.5 0.0 0.1 1.9 13.7 36.0 34.5 12.2 1.5 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 7.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 6.8 20.3 32.5 26.8 10.5 1.9 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 100.0% 4.0 0.1 1.1 7.8 24.9 35.3 22.7 7.1 1.1 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 97.1% 2.2 2.9 21.1 41.0 27.3 6.9 0.7 0.0
Final Four 82.4% 1.2 17.6 49.3 28.5 4.4 0.2
Final Game 60.4% 0.7 39.6 52.0 8.4
Champion 40.1% 0.4 59.9 40.1