Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27

Last Updated: Mar 5, 2026
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View: Probabilistic Seeding


***Click on team names for re-designed team pages with much more information on each team***

Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Michigan Auto 100.0% 50.3% 49.7% 100.0%
1  Duke Auto 100.0% 71.2% 28.8% 100.0%
1  Arizona Auto 100.0% 47.2% 52.8% 100.0%
1  Connecticut Auto 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 100.0%
2  Florida Auto 100.0% 50.7% 49.3% 100.0%
2  Houston At-Large 100.0% 25.4% 74.6% 100.0%
2  Michigan St. At-Large 100.0% 13.3% 86.7% 100.0%
2  Illinois At-Large 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 100.0%
3  Purdue At-Large 100.0% 7.0% 93.0% 100.0%
3  Nebraska At-Large 100.0% 7.9% 92.1% 100.0%
3  Texas Tech At-Large 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 100.0%
3  Iowa St. At-Large 100.0% 8.6% 91.4% 100.0%
4  Alabama At-Large 100.0% 12.3% 87.8% 100.0%
4  Virginia At-Large 100.0% 8.7% 91.3% 100.0%
4  Gonzaga Auto 100.0% 68.1% 31.9% 100.0%
4  Kansas At-Large 100.0% 6.0% 94.0% 100.0%
5  Arkansas At-Large 100.0% 12.1% 87.9% 100.0%
5  Tennessee At-Large 99.9% 10.1% 89.8% 99.9%
5  Vanderbilt At-Large 100.0% 5.2% 94.8% 100.0%
5  St. John's At-Large 99.8% 30.5% 69.3% 99.7%
6  North Carolina At-Large 99.8% 3.1% 96.7% 99.8%
6  Louisville At-Large 99.5% 8.1% 91.4% 99.4%
6  Wisconsin At-Large 98.6% 1.6% 97.1% 98.6%
6  Kentucky At-Large 98.1% 2.4% 95.7% 98.1%
7  BYU At-Large 98.6% 1.9% 96.7% 98.5%
7  Georgia At-Large 97.7% 2.4% 95.3% 97.6%
7  Miami (FL) At-Large 97.3% 3.5% 93.8% 97.2%
7  St. Mary's At-Large 97.2% 21.7% 75.5% 96.5%
8  UCLA At-Large 95.1% 1.0% 94.1% 95.0%
8  Iowa At-Large 92.2% 0.7% 91.5% 92.1%
8  Clemson At-Large 91.4% 2.5% 88.9% 91.1%
8  Texas At-Large 86.2% 1.3% 84.9% 86.0%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  TCU At-Large 90.0% 0.5% 89.5% 89.9%
9  North Carolina St. At-Large 89.1% 1.7% 87.4% 88.9%
9  Texas A&M At-Large 88.6% 2.1% 86.5% 88.3%
9  Villanova At-Large 94.8% 11.0% 83.8% 94.2%
10  Saint Louis Auto 93.3% 54.2% 39.1% 85.4%
10  Utah St. Auto 85.8% 29.0% 56.8% 80.0%
10  Central Florida At-Large 78.6% 0.2% 78.4% 78.6%
10  Ohio St. At-Large 86.4% 0.6% 85.8% 86.3%
11  Missouri At-Large 68.8% 0.4% 68.4% 68.7%
11  SMU At-Large 58.3% 0.6% 57.7% 58.1%
11  Santa Clara At-Large 63.6% 9.4% 54.1% 59.8%
11  Cincinnati At-Large 42.0% 0.5% 41.4% 41.6%
11  Indiana At-Large 43.4% 0.5% 42.9% 43.1%
11  South Florida Auto 45.2% 40.8% 4.4% 7.4%
12  Belmont Auto 38.3% 36.7% 1.6% 2.5%
12  Akron Auto 49.9% 49.9% 0.0% 0.0%
12  McNeese St. Auto 49.0% 48.9% 0.2% 0.3%
12  Yale Auto 55.7% 55.7%
13  Utah Valley Auto 53.7% 53.7%
13  High Point Auto 66.0% 66.0%
13  UNC Wilmington Auto 29.5% 29.5%
13  Sam Houston St. Auto 27.6% 27.6%
14  Hawaii Auto 34.0% 34.0%
14  St. Thomas Auto 39.6% 39.6%
14  Troy Auto 35.0% 35.0%
14  Portland St. Auto 24.4% 24.4%
15  East Tennessee St. Auto 34.4% 34.4%
15  Navy Auto 52.9% 52.9%
15  Wright St. Auto 35.1% 35.1%
15  Central Arkansas Auto 28.7% 28.7%
16  Merrimack Auto 23.1% 23.1%
16  Tennessee St. Auto 39.7% 39.7%
16  Maryland Baltimore Co. Auto 45.6% 45.6%
16  Howard Auto 72.5% 72.5%
16  LIU Brooklyn Auto 52.9% 52.9%
16  Bethune-Cookman Auto 36.3% 36.3%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Central Florida 78.6% 0.2% 78.4% 78.6%
Missouri 68.8% 0.4% 68.4% 68.7%
Santa Clara 63.6% 9.4% 54.1% 59.8%
SMU 58.3% 0.6% 57.7% 58.1%
Indiana 43.4% 0.5% 42.9% 43.1%
Cincinnati 42.0% 0.5% 41.4% 41.6%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Auburn 36.1% 0.7% 35.4% 35.6%
Seton Hall 35.5% 4.8% 30.6% 32.2%
New Mexico 40.2% 16.2% 24.0% 28.6%
Virginia Commonwealth 43.3% 24.9% 18.3% 24.4%
San Diego St. 40.2% 24.4% 15.8% 20.9%
Virginia Tech 19.0% 0.2% 18.8% 18.8%
California 16.5% 0.1% 16.4% 16.4%
Stanford 13.3% 0.1% 13.1% 13.1%
Miami (OH) 39.3% 31.0% 8.3% 12.0%
West Virginia 12.0% 0.1% 11.9% 11.9%
Boise St. 17.6% 7.5% 10.1% 10.9%
Oklahoma 9.6% 0.3% 9.3% 9.4%
Arizona St. 3.5% 0.1% 3.4% 3.4%
USC 3.1% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Dayton 11.1% 8.6% 2.5% 2.7%
Tulsa 31.3% 29.5% 1.8% 2.5%
Oklahoma St. 2.6% 0.1% 2.5% 2.5%
Baylor 1.6% 0.1% 1.5% 1.5%
Florida St. 1.3% 0.0% 1.3% 1.3%
Grand Canyon 12.2% 11.2% 1.0% 1.2%
Washington 1.2% 0.0% 1.1% 1.1%
Colorado 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Nevada 5.5% 5.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Colorado St. 4.2% 4.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Wake Forest 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Minnesota 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Syracuse 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Providence 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%