Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27

Last Updated: Jan 23, 2026
Compare with others at bracketmatrix.com

View: Probabilistic Seeding


Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
1  Arizona Auto 100.0% 33.2% 66.8% 100.0%
1  Michigan Auto 100.0% 40.1% 59.9% 100.0%
1  Duke Auto 100.0% 43.1% 56.9% 100.0%
1  Houston At-Large 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 100.0%
2  Connecticut Auto 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 100.0%
2  Purdue At-Large 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 100.0%
2  Nebraska At-Large 100.0% 8.5% 91.5% 100.0%
2  Iowa St. At-Large 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 100.0%
3  Michigan St. At-Large 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 100.0%
3  Illinois At-Large 100.0% 13.9% 86.0% 100.0%
3  Florida Auto 99.9% 27.9% 72.1% 99.9%
3  Gonzaga Auto 100.0% 75.6% 24.4% 99.9%
4  BYU At-Large 99.9% 10.1% 89.8% 99.8%
4  Texas Tech At-Large 99.8% 9.0% 90.8% 99.7%
4  Virginia At-Large 100.0% 17.3% 82.7% 99.9%
4  Alabama At-Large 99.2% 14.0% 85.2% 99.1%
5  Vanderbilt At-Large 99.6% 10.6% 89.0% 99.5%
5  Arkansas At-Large 98.8% 12.4% 86.4% 98.7%
5  Kansas At-Large 99.0% 5.8% 93.2% 99.0%
5  Louisville At-Large 97.5% 14.4% 83.1% 97.1%
6  St. John's At-Large 99.1% 27.3% 71.9% 98.8%
6  Georgia At-Large 97.4% 8.0% 89.4% 97.2%
6  Kentucky At-Large 92.0% 7.2% 84.8% 91.3%
6  Tennessee At-Large 92.1% 7.7% 84.4% 91.4%
7  Iowa At-Large 92.8% 2.9% 89.9% 92.6%
7  Clemson At-Large 95.9% 6.1% 89.7% 95.6%
7  Auburn At-Large 81.7% 4.3% 77.4% 80.9%
7  Texas A&M At-Large 86.9% 4.2% 82.7% 86.3%
8  Villanova At-Large 92.0% 10.8% 81.2% 91.0%
8  Wisconsin At-Large 84.4% 1.2% 83.2% 84.2%
8  SMU At-Large 89.1% 4.9% 84.2% 88.5%
8  North Carolina At-Large 85.6% 3.8% 81.9% 85.1%
Seed Team Bid Type Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
9  North Carolina St. At-Large 86.7% 6.2% 80.5% 85.9%
9  Ohio St. At-Large 78.3% 1.1% 77.2% 78.1%
9  UCLA At-Large 72.9% 1.0% 71.9% 72.7%
9  Saint Louis Auto 83.3% 47.7% 35.6% 68.0%
10  Central Florida At-Large 61.7% 0.3% 61.4% 61.6%
10  Texas At-Large 47.2% 1.7% 45.5% 46.3%
10  Miami (FL) At-Large 63.8% 2.7% 61.1% 62.8%
10  Utah St. Auto 64.7% 30.2% 34.5% 49.4%
11  USC At-Large 46.4% 0.2% 46.2% 46.3%
11  Seton Hall At-Large 46.5% 2.9% 43.6% 44.9%
11  Missouri At-Large 45.7% 0.7% 44.9% 45.3%
11  TCU At-Large 40.5% 0.4% 40.1% 40.3%
11  Creighton At-Large 43.1% 4.9% 38.2% 40.2%
11  Tulsa Auto 25.8% 25.3% 0.5% 0.7%
12  Belmont Auto 28.3% 28.1% 0.3% 0.4%
12  Akron Auto 44.6% 44.5% 0.0% 0.1%
12  McNeese St. Auto 51.7% 51.7% 0.0% 0.1%
12  Liberty Auto 34.2% 34.1% 0.1% 0.1%
13  Yale Auto 61.8% 61.8%
13  Utah Valley Auto 45.2% 45.2%
13  Troy Auto 44.4% 44.4%
13  Hawaii Auto 32.6% 32.6%
14  High Point Auto 51.6% 51.6%
14  UNC Wilmington Auto 22.2% 22.2%
14  St. Thomas Auto 36.3% 36.3%
14  Portland St. Auto 22.8% 22.8%
15  Oakland Auto 28.4% 28.4%
15  East Tennessee St. Auto 32.1% 32.1%
15  Marist Auto 23.1% 23.1%
15  Queens Auto 23.8% 23.8%
16  Tennessee Martin Auto 24.3% 24.3%
16  Navy Auto 29.0% 29.0%
16  Vermont Auto 41.1% 41.1%
16  LIU Brooklyn Auto 50.4% 50.4%
16  Southern Auto 25.7% 25.7%
16  Howard Auto 39.0% 39.0%



Bubble Teams - Last at Large Teams

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Wisconsin 84.4% 1.2% 83.2% 84.2%
Auburn 81.7% 4.3% 77.4% 80.9%
Ohio St. 78.3% 1.1% 77.2% 78.1%
UCLA 72.9% 1.0% 71.9% 72.7%
Miami (FL) 63.8% 2.7% 61.1% 62.8%
Central Florida 61.7% 0.3% 61.4% 61.6%
Texas 47.2% 1.7% 45.5% 46.3%
USC 46.4% 0.2% 46.2% 46.3%
Missouri 45.7% 0.7% 44.9% 45.3%
Seton Hall 46.5% 2.9% 43.6% 44.9%
TCU 40.5% 0.4% 40.1% 40.3%
Creighton 43.1% 4.9% 38.2% 40.2%


Bubble Teams - First Teams Out

Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Indiana 39.9% 0.6% 39.2% 39.5%
Virginia Tech 39.6% 0.5% 39.1% 39.3%
West Virginia 36.3% 0.3% 36.0% 36.1%
Baylor 35.6% 0.4% 35.1% 35.3%
LSU 35.7% 0.8% 34.9% 35.2%
St. Mary's 41.3% 14.0% 27.3% 31.7%
Stanford 28.1% 0.3% 27.8% 27.9%
Butler 29.1% 1.8% 27.3% 27.8%
New Mexico 41.4% 19.0% 22.4% 27.7%
San Diego St. 43.1% 21.4% 21.7% 27.6%
Oklahoma St. 22.3% 0.1% 22.3% 22.3%
Washington 19.9% 0.1% 19.8% 19.8%
Santa Clara 22.1% 8.8% 13.3% 14.6%
Cincinnati 12.7% 0.3% 12.4% 12.4%
California 11.5% 0.2% 11.3% 11.3%
Oklahoma 11.1% 0.2% 11.0% 11.0%
Mississippi 9.3% 0.2% 9.1% 9.1%
Virginia Commonwealth 26.0% 19.4% 6.6% 8.2%
Wake Forest 8.2% 0.2% 8.0% 8.0%
George Mason 14.8% 9.2% 5.7% 6.2%
Boise St. 13.1% 7.5% 5.6% 6.0%
Syracuse 5.3% 0.2% 5.0% 5.1%
Xavier 5.3% 0.7% 4.6% 4.6%
Minnesota 3.9% 0.0% 3.9% 3.9%
Colorado 3.4% 0.1% 3.3% 3.3%
Mississippi St. 3.2% 0.1% 3.2% 3.2%
Providence 3.9% 1.0% 2.9% 2.9%
South Carolina 3.0% 0.1% 2.9% 2.9%
Dayton 12.4% 10.0% 2.4% 2.6%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Grand Canyon 10.1% 7.7% 2.3% 2.5%
Notre Dame 2.6% 0.1% 2.5% 2.5%
Nevada 10.0% 7.7% 2.3% 2.4%
Arizona St. 2.2% 0.0% 2.2% 2.2%
Northwestern 1.9% 0.0% 1.8% 1.8%
Kansas St. 1.6% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6%
Miami (OH) 30.4% 29.4% 0.9% 1.3%
DePaul 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% 0.6%
Oregon 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6%
South Florida 23.1% 22.8% 0.4% 0.5%
Georgetown 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
George Washington 8.8% 8.6% 0.2% 0.3%
Colorado St. 3.0% 2.8% 0.2% 0.2%
Pittsburgh 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Murray St. 19.0% 18.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Utah 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
UNLV 1.8% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Memphis 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0%
San Francisco 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Maryland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rutgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Marquette 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Penn St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois St. 22.7% 22.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Iowa 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Team Bid Chance Auto-Chance At-Large Chance At-Large If Not Auto
Seattle 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%