Penn
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#240
Expected Predictive Rating-1.6#189
Pace72.7#91
Improvement+0.5#147

Offense
Total Offense-1.5#204
First Shot-3.5#276
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#60
Layup/Dunks-4.6#327
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#91
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#243
Freethrows+1.4#102
Improvement-0.9#248

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#284
First Shot-3.2#287
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#183
Layups/Dunks-5.7#348
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#314
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#85
Freethrows+2.0#60
Improvement+1.4#88
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.8% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 23.9% 51.7% 21.0%
.500 or above in Conference 30.6% 41.9% 29.4%
Conference Champion 1.7% 3.6% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 27.1% 19.0% 27.9%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round2.6% 3.8% 2.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: George Mason (Away) - 9.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 49 - 411 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sun, Nov 9 268 @American L 78-84 43%     0 - 1 -8.9 -3.3 -5.0
  Tue, Nov 11 78 @Providence L 81-106 9%     0 - 2 -14.9 +0.6 -12.6
  Mon, Nov 17 188 Saint Joseph's W 83-74 51%     1 - 2 +4.2 +5.0 -1.4
  Fri, Nov 21 274 @Drexel W 84-68 44%     2 - 2 +13.0 +13.7 +0.0
  Fri, Nov 28 263 Merrimack W 77-65 65%     3 - 2 +3.3 +3.4 +0.3
  Sat, Nov 29 233 La Salle W 73-71 61%     4 - 2 -5.4 +4.9 -10.1
  Sun, Nov 30 110 Hofstra L 60-77 30%     4 - 3 -16.3 -9.3 -7.8
  Sat, Dec 6 32 Villanova L 63-90 5%     4 - 4 -13.0 +0.7 -15.3
  Mon, Dec 8 321 Lafayette W 74-72 77%     5 - 4 -10.5 -6.6 -4.0
  Sat, Dec 20 147 @Rutgers L 69-70 21%     5 - 5 +2.9 +0.9 +2.0
  Sun, Dec 28 88 @George Mason L 67-81 9%    
  Wed, Dec 31 353 NJIT W 80-68 86%    
  Mon, Jan 5 248 @Princeton L 71-74 40%    
  Sat, Jan 10 226 Brown W 71-69 58%    
  Sat, Jan 17 247 @Dartmouth L 77-80 40%    
  Mon, Jan 19 192 @Harvard L 70-76 30%    
  Sat, Jan 24 76 Yale L 75-84 21%    
  Fri, Jan 30 142 @Columbia L 72-81 21%    
  Sat, Jan 31 159 @Cornell L 83-91 24%    
  Sat, Feb 7 248 Princeton W 74-71 62%    
  Fri, Feb 13 142 Columbia L 75-78 40%    
  Sat, Feb 14 159 Cornell L 86-88 44%    
  Sat, Feb 21 76 @Yale L 72-87 9%    
  Fri, Feb 27 247 Dartmouth W 80-77 62%    
  Sat, Feb 28 192 Harvard W 73-72 52%    
  Fri, Mar 6 226 @Brown L 68-72 37%    
Projected Record 11 - 15 5 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.7 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 2.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 7.1 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.5 4.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 10.7 3rd
4th 0.3 4.7 6.8 1.9 0.1 13.9 4th
5th 0.3 4.5 8.4 2.3 0.1 15.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 4.6 8.9 2.9 0.1 16.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.8 8.1 3.4 0.1 17.3 7th
8th 0.5 2.4 5.3 6.0 2.4 0.2 16.8 8th
Total 0.5 2.5 6.1 11.2 15.3 17.4 16.4 13.0 9.0 5.2 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
12-2 88.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0
11-3 61.6% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
10-4 25.9% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
9-5 6.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-2 0.2% 20.8% 20.8% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-3 0.9% 16.1% 16.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
10-4 2.3% 13.0% 13.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.0
9-5 5.2% 11.6% 11.6% 14.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 4.6
8-6 9.0% 8.4% 8.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 8.2
7-7 13.0% 4.9% 4.9% 15.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 12.4
6-8 16.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 16.3
5-9 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 17.4
4-10 15.3% 15.3
3-11 11.2% 11.2
2-12 6.1% 6.1
1-13 2.5% 2.5
0-14 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.4 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%