Penn
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#268
Expected Predictive Rating-7.0#277
Pace64.4#310
Improvement-1.3#299

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#166
First Shot-5.0#308
After Offensive Rebound+5.3#9
Layup/Dunks-5.2#332
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#323
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#134
Freethrows+1.9#82
Improvement+0.2#149

Defense
Total Defense-5.9#346
First Shot-5.0#316
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#255
Layups/Dunks-1.6#230
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#99
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#335
Freethrows+0.7#145
Improvement-1.6#326
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 3.3% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 14.7% 18.5% 5.2%
.500 or above in Conference 31.7% 34.9% 23.6%
Conference Champion 2.5% 2.9% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 19.8% 17.4% 25.7%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.8%
First Round2.4% 3.0% 1.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Navy (Home) - 71.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 12
Quad 48 - 510 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 360   @ NJIT W 58-57 73%     1 - 0 -10.9 -14.1 +3.3
  Nov 07, 2024 356   Maryland Eastern Shore W 87-84 85%     2 - 0 -13.7 +6.6 -20.2
  Nov 12, 2024 245   @ Lafayette L 63-65 34%     2 - 1 -3.4 +3.9 -7.7
  Nov 15, 2024 94   Saint Joseph's L 69-86 21%     2 - 2 -14.3 +2.8 -18.3
  Nov 19, 2024 71   @ Villanova L 49-93 7%     2 - 3 -33.1 -15.4 -21.3
  Nov 29, 2024 311   Navy W 75-69 71%    
  Nov 30, 2024 236   Maine W 68-67 54%    
  Dec 01, 2024 160   Elon L 73-76 40%    
  Dec 09, 2024 65   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 62-79 6%    
  Dec 20, 2024 239   Rider W 73-72 55%    
  Dec 22, 2024 96   @ George Mason L 63-77 10%    
  Dec 29, 2024 31   @ Penn St. L 67-88 3%    
  Jan 11, 2025 340   @ Dartmouth W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 18, 2025 213   Cornell L 79-80 49%    
  Jan 20, 2025 227   @ Harvard L 70-75 32%    
  Jan 25, 2025 191   Columbia L 76-77 45%    
  Jan 31, 2025 220   Brown W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 01, 2025 99   Yale L 68-76 24%    
  Feb 07, 2025 136   Princeton L 72-76 36%    
  Feb 14, 2025 99   @ Yale L 65-79 11%    
  Feb 15, 2025 220   @ Brown L 69-75 31%    
  Feb 21, 2025 340   Dartmouth W 76-67 78%    
  Feb 22, 2025 227   Harvard W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 28, 2025 213   @ Cornell L 76-82 30%    
  Mar 01, 2025 191   @ Columbia L 73-80 26%    
  Mar 08, 2025 136   @ Princeton L 69-79 19%    
Projected Record 10 - 16 5 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 2.8 1.8 0.4 0.0 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 4.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.8 6.2 3.0 0.2 12.4 4th
5th 0.3 3.7 8.1 3.6 0.3 16.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 5.0 8.9 4.4 0.3 19.4 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 7.4 8.5 3.6 0.3 22.1 7th
8th 0.6 2.7 4.2 3.2 1.0 0.1 11.7 8th
Total 0.6 3.0 6.3 11.4 14.9 16.5 15.8 12.3 9.2 5.5 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-2 92.3% 0.3    0.3 0.1
11-3 65.3% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0
10-4 29.5% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
9-5 6.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 2.5% 2.5 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-1 0.1% 35.9% 35.9% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-2 0.4% 27.9% 27.9% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
11-3 1.3% 18.7% 18.7% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
10-4 2.9% 16.6% 16.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.4
9-5 5.5% 12.1% 12.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 4.9
8-6 9.2% 8.7% 8.7% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 8.4
7-7 12.3% 3.2% 3.2% 15.9 0.0 0.4 11.9
6-8 15.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 15.8
5-9 16.5% 16.5
4-10 14.9% 14.9
3-11 11.4% 11.4
2-12 6.3% 6.3
1-13 3.0% 3.0
0-14 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.2 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%