Penn
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.2#287
Expected Predictive Rating-9.4#310
Pace64.8#276
Improvement+2.5#75

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#239
First Shot-2.3#236
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#214
Layup/Dunks+0.2#174
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#361
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#87
Freethrows-0.8#232
Improvement-0.8#231

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#304
First Shot-4.4#313
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#203
Layups/Dunks-3.9#316
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#90
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#317
Freethrows+2.1#55
Improvement+3.2#33
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.8% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 4.5% 11.0% 2.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 57.5% 35.0% 64.9%
First Four0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.7% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Harvard (Away) - 24.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 31 - 71 - 14
Quad 46 - 67 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 355   @ NJIT W 58-57 64%     1 - 0 -9.8 -10.9 +1.2
  Nov 07, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 87-84 85%     2 - 0 -15.1 +5.1 -20.3
  Nov 12, 2024 276   @ Lafayette L 63-65 37%     2 - 1 -5.7 +3.0 -9.2
  Nov 15, 2024 90   Saint Joseph's L 69-86 16%     2 - 2 -13.5 +3.7 -18.3
  Nov 19, 2024 42   @ Villanova L 49-93 3%     2 - 3 -29.6 -16.7 -16.5
  Nov 29, 2024 291   Navy L 78-86 62%     2 - 4 -18.2 -1.2 -17.0
  Nov 30, 2024 202   Maine W 77-64 40%     3 - 4 +8.3 +10.7 -1.3
  Dec 01, 2024 158   Elon L 53-68 32%     3 - 5 -17.4 -12.9 -7.0
  Dec 07, 2024 193   Drexel L 47-60 29%     3 - 6 -14.4 -21.4 +6.0
  Dec 09, 2024 49   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 47-66 4%     3 - 7 -5.5 -14.0 +6.8
  Dec 20, 2024 294   Rider W 79-66 62%     4 - 7 +2.6 +11.5 -7.2
  Dec 22, 2024 86   @ George Mason L 53-85 7%     4 - 8 -22.7 -10.8 -12.5
  Dec 29, 2024 51   @ Penn St. L 66-86 4%     4 - 9 -6.7 -3.7 -2.3
  Jan 11, 2025 274   @ Dartmouth L 70-73 37%     4 - 10 0 - 1 -6.7 -3.4 -3.2
  Jan 18, 2025 134   Cornell L 76-86 27%     4 - 11 0 - 2 -11.0 -5.2 -5.2
  Jan 20, 2025 215   @ Harvard L 66-73 25%    
  Jan 25, 2025 207   Columbia L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 31, 2025 212   Brown L 68-70 45%    
  Feb 01, 2025 88   Yale L 67-78 16%    
  Feb 07, 2025 122   Princeton L 69-76 26%    
  Feb 14, 2025 88   @ Yale L 65-81 7%    
  Feb 15, 2025 212   @ Brown L 65-72 25%    
  Feb 21, 2025 274   Dartmouth W 74-72 59%    
  Feb 22, 2025 215   Harvard L 68-70 46%    
  Feb 28, 2025 134   @ Cornell L 73-85 13%    
  Mar 01, 2025 207   @ Columbia L 72-80 23%    
  Mar 08, 2025 122   @ Princeton L 66-79 12%    
Projected Record 7 - 20 3 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 1.3 3rd
4th 0.4 2.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.0 4th
5th 0.7 4.8 3.6 0.5 0.0 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 7.4 7.3 0.9 0.0 16.8 6th
7th 0.2 3.2 11.3 10.0 1.6 0.0 26.3 7th
8th 3.0 10.5 15.5 9.5 2.1 0.1 40.6 8th
Total 3.0 10.7 18.7 22.0 20.2 14.1 6.9 3.0 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-4 28.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-5 8.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-4 0.1% 0.0 0.1
9-5 0.2% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
8-6 1.2% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.1 1.1
7-7 3.0% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.1 2.9
6-8 6.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.9
5-9 14.1% 14.1
4-10 20.2% 20.2
3-11 22.0% 22.0
2-12 18.7% 18.7
1-13 10.7% 10.7
0-14 3.0% 3.0
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.0%