Princeton
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#119
Expected Predictive Rating+3.1#120
Pace67.4#222
Improvement+0.2#170

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#95
First Shot+5.4#47
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#306
Layup/Dunks+0.5#163
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.0#6
Freethrows-1.4#267
Improvement-1.4#293

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#181
First Shot-1.4#218
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#94
Layups/Dunks-0.8#202
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#144
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#258
Freethrows+0.6#144
Improvement+1.6#58
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.0% 25.9% 20.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.6 13.1
.500 or above 91.8% 97.5% 89.5%
.500 or above in Conference 86.1% 90.2% 84.5%
Conference Champion 27.9% 33.4% 25.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.9% 1.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round22.0% 25.9% 20.4%
Second Round2.8% 3.8% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.8% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rutgers (Neutral) - 28.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 32 - 3
Quad 36 - 68 - 9
Quad 410 - 218 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 257   Iona W 81-80 85%     1 - 0 -7.5 +6.2 -13.7
  Nov 08, 2024 198   Duquesne W 75-68 67%     2 - 0 +5.3 +1.4 +3.7
  Nov 10, 2024 158   @ Northeastern W 79-76 49%     3 - 0 +6.0 +7.9 -1.9
  Nov 15, 2024 104   Loyola Chicago L 68-73 54%     3 - 1 -3.2 -3.3 +0.2
  Nov 17, 2024 217   @ Merrimack W 68-57 60%     4 - 1 +11.2 +11.1 +2.2
  Nov 21, 2024 133   Wright St. L 62-80 55%     4 - 2 -16.5 -9.7 -7.8
  Nov 22, 2024 138   Texas St. L 80-83 56%     4 - 3 -1.8 +12.1 -14.1
  Nov 24, 2024 312   Portland W 94-67 85%     5 - 3 +18.7 +12.6 +4.5
  Dec 03, 2024 103   @ Saint Joseph's W 77-69 31%     6 - 3 +15.9 +7.9 +7.9
  Dec 07, 2024 126   @ Furman L 63-69 41%     6 - 4 -0.8 -2.2 +1.0
  Dec 10, 2024 273   Monmouth W 71-67 86%     7 - 4 -4.9 -1.4 -3.3
  Dec 21, 2024 62   Rutgers L 72-78 29%    
  Dec 30, 2024 146   Akron W 81-76 69%    
  Jan 11, 2025 232   @ Harvard W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 18, 2025 306   @ Dartmouth W 77-69 76%    
  Jan 20, 2025 183   Columbia W 80-73 74%    
  Jan 25, 2025 121   Cornell W 82-79 62%    
  Jan 31, 2025 105   Yale W 76-75 55%    
  Feb 01, 2025 159   Brown W 74-68 70%    
  Feb 07, 2025 284   @ Penn W 75-69 72%    
  Feb 14, 2025 159   @ Brown L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 15, 2025 105   @ Yale L 73-78 34%    
  Feb 21, 2025 232   Harvard W 76-66 81%    
  Feb 22, 2025 306   @ Dartmouth W 77-69 76%    
  Feb 28, 2025 183   @ Columbia W 77-76 53%    
  Mar 01, 2025 121   @ Cornell L 79-82 40%    
  Mar 08, 2025 284   Penn W 78-66 87%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 9 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 5.9 9.2 7.4 3.2 0.7 27.9 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 8.0 9.4 3.7 0.4 23.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 8.1 7.3 1.7 0.1 19.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 6.0 5.1 0.7 0.0 13.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 4.0 3.1 0.4 8.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.1 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 8th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 3.9 7.4 11.4 15.7 17.4 17.0 12.9 7.9 3.2 0.7 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
13-1 100.0% 3.2    3.2 0.1
12-2 94.6% 7.4    6.2 1.3 0.0
11-3 71.2% 9.2    5.5 3.4 0.3 0.0
10-4 34.7% 5.9    1.7 2.9 1.2 0.1
9-5 7.7% 1.3    0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 27.9% 27.9 17.3 8.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.7% 53.4% 53.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-1 3.2% 48.2% 48.1% 0.1% 12.0 0.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.7 0.1%
12-2 7.9% 41.4% 41.4% 12.4 0.1 1.9 1.1 0.1 4.6
11-3 12.9% 34.6% 34.6% 12.7 0.0 1.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 8.5
10-4 17.0% 29.6% 29.6% 13.0 0.0 1.1 2.8 1.0 0.1 11.9
9-5 17.4% 24.4% 24.4% 13.3 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 13.1
8-6 15.7% 15.4% 15.4% 13.7 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 13.3
7-7 11.4% 5.4% 5.4% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 10.8
6-8 7.4% 0.4% 0.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4
5-9 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 3.9
4-10 1.7% 1.7
3-11 0.7% 0.7
2-12 0.1% 0.1
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14
Total 100% 22.0% 22.0% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 6.6 9.5 4.4 0.7 0.0 78.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 9.6 3.0 6.1 6.1 6.1 22.7 12.1 33.3 10.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%