Princeton
Ivy League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.6#122
Expected Predictive Rating+6.0#93
Pace68.4#187
Improvement+0.2#170

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#108
First Shot+3.8#73
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#263
Layup/Dunks+1.6#125
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#319
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#21
Freethrows-1.6#281
Improvement-1.0#251

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#172
First Shot-0.8#202
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#109
Layups/Dunks-0.6#190
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#245
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#192
Freethrows+0.2#174
Improvement+1.2#119
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.3% 23.9% 16.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.2
.500 or above 99.6% 99.8% 98.8%
.500 or above in Conference 95.4% 97.7% 87.2%
Conference Champion 26.4% 30.3% 12.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round22.3% 23.9% 16.7%
Second Round2.5% 2.8% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Columbia (Home) - 78.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 23 - 2
Quad 37 - 510 - 7
Quad 410 - 219 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 253   Iona W 81-80 84%     1 - 0 -7.0 +7.4 -14.4
  Nov 08, 2024 116   Duquesne W 75-68 49%     2 - 0 +9.9 +2.6 +7.1
  Nov 10, 2024 200   @ Northeastern W 79-76 57%     3 - 0 +3.9 +6.0 -2.1
  Nov 15, 2024 136   Loyola Chicago L 68-73 64%     3 - 1 -6.1 -6.3 +0.3
  Nov 17, 2024 206   @ Merrimack W 68-57 58%     4 - 1 +11.6 +11.1 +2.5
  Nov 21, 2024 177   Wright St. L 62-80 63%     4 - 2 -18.8 -10.7 -9.1
  Nov 22, 2024 167   Texas St. L 80-83 61%     4 - 3 -3.3 +9.9 -13.3
  Nov 24, 2024 308   Portland W 94-67 85%     5 - 3 +18.7 +10.5 +6.7
  Dec 03, 2024 90   @ Saint Joseph's W 77-69 27%     6 - 3 +17.0 +8.4 +8.5
  Dec 07, 2024 151   @ Furman L 63-69 46%     6 - 4 -2.3 -3.8 +1.0
  Dec 10, 2024 267   Monmouth W 71-67 86%     7 - 4 -4.7 -0.9 -3.6
  Dec 21, 2024 66   Rutgers W 83-82 29%     8 - 4 +9.4 +9.8 -0.4
  Dec 30, 2024 124   Akron W 76-75 61%     9 - 4 +0.8 -1.8 +2.5
  Jan 11, 2025 215   @ Harvard W 68-64 61%     10 - 4 1 - 0 +3.8 +4.0 +0.3
  Jan 18, 2025 274   @ Dartmouth W 81-80 73%     11 - 4 2 - 0 -2.7 +5.3 -8.0
  Jan 20, 2025 207   Columbia W 82-74 78%    
  Jan 25, 2025 134   Cornell W 84-80 64%    
  Jan 31, 2025 88   Yale L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 01, 2025 212   Brown W 75-67 78%    
  Feb 07, 2025 287   @ Penn W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 14, 2025 212   @ Brown W 73-70 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 88   @ Yale L 72-79 26%    
  Feb 21, 2025 215   Harvard W 76-68 79%    
  Feb 22, 2025 274   @ Dartmouth W 78-72 71%    
  Feb 28, 2025 207   @ Columbia W 79-77 57%    
  Mar 01, 2025 134   @ Cornell L 81-83 43%    
  Mar 08, 2025 287   Penn W 79-66 88%    
Projected Record 19 - 8 10 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.4 3.4 8.4 9.3 4.1 0.9 26.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 8.6 13.8 8.7 1.5 34.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.3 9.0 10.1 4.1 0.3 26.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 4.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.2 0.2 3.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 3.3 7.6 13.8 19.6 21.4 17.4 10.8 4.1 0.9 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
13-1 100.0% 4.1    3.8 0.3
12-2 85.8% 9.3    6.1 3.1 0.0
11-3 48.1% 8.4    3.7 4.0 0.7
10-4 16.1% 3.4    0.7 1.9 0.9 0.1
9-5 1.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 26.4% 26.4 15.2 9.3 1.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.9% 52.8% 52.8% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4
13-1 4.1% 40.2% 40.2% 12.1 0.2 1.1 0.3 2.4
12-2 10.8% 35.0% 35.0% 12.3 0.1 2.3 1.2 0.1 7.0
11-3 17.4% 29.4% 29.4% 12.7 0.0 2.0 2.5 0.6 0.0 12.3
10-4 21.4% 23.6% 23.6% 13.1 0.9 2.9 1.2 0.0 16.3
9-5 19.6% 19.9% 19.9% 13.4 0.3 1.9 1.5 0.2 15.7
8-6 13.8% 14.5% 14.5% 13.7 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.2 11.8
7-7 7.6% 5.6% 5.6% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.2
6-8 3.3% 0.6% 0.6% 15.0 0.0 3.3
5-9 0.9% 0.9
4-10 0.3% 0.3
3-11 0.1% 0.1
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 22.3% 22.3% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 6.9 9.7 4.6 0.5 0.0 77.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 11.3 2.1 10.6 48.9 36.2 2.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%