Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#167
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#174
Pace65.7#249
Improvement-2.2#284

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#127
First Shot+2.4#109
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#218
Layup/Dunks+5.0#27
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#89
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#349
Freethrows+2.4#49
Improvement+1.1#114

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#242
First Shot-2.6#257
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#142
Layups/Dunks-1.8#253
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#78
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#176
Freethrows-2.6#338
Improvement-3.3#336
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.4% 6.7% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 80.9% 88.0% 66.2%
.500 or above in Conference 86.8% 93.0% 73.9%
Conference Champion 3.3% 4.4% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round6.4% 6.7% 5.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Away) - 67.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 35 - 56 - 10
Quad 411 - 417 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 313   Eastern Michigan W 64-44 85%     1 - 0 +8.6 -9.3 +19.8
  Nov 12, 2024 62   @ TCU L 71-76 14%     1 - 1 +6.4 +3.3 +3.3
  Nov 16, 2024 242   @ Abilene Christian L 60-72 55%     1 - 2 -13.7 -9.2 -4.6
  Nov 21, 2024 73   Bradley L 68-82 23%     1 - 3 -6.4 +1.1 -7.9
  Nov 22, 2024 122   Princeton W 83-80 39%     2 - 3 +5.6 +15.2 -9.4
  Nov 24, 2024 147   Ohio W 74-65 45%     3 - 3 +10.1 +9.3 +1.9
  Dec 01, 2024 300   @ Texas Southern W 72-59 68%     4 - 3 +8.0 +5.7 +3.3
  Dec 08, 2024 192   Rice W 75-66 65%     5 - 3 +4.9 +11.7 -5.4
  Dec 14, 2024 108   @ Florida Atlantic L 80-89 27%     5 - 4 -2.8 +8.4 -11.3
  Dec 21, 2024 272   Georgia Southern W 83-61 80%     6 - 4 1 - 0 +13.0 +6.9 +6.3
  Dec 29, 2024 201   Texas Arlington L 72-80 66%     6 - 5 -12.6 -2.0 -11.0
  Jan 02, 2025 179   @ Marshall L 71-77 42%     6 - 6 1 - 1 -4.1 +4.0 -8.4
  Jan 04, 2025 123   @ Appalachian St. L 61-72 29%     6 - 7 1 - 2 -5.7 +0.4 -7.2
  Jan 09, 2025 117   @ Troy W 74-73 29%     7 - 7 2 - 2 +6.5 +8.6 -2.0
  Jan 11, 2025 258   @ Southern Miss L 88-92 OT 59%     7 - 8 2 - 3 -6.7 -0.5 -5.5
  Jan 15, 2025 280   Georgia St. W 94-80 81%     8 - 8 3 - 3 +4.3 +15.8 -11.6
  Jan 18, 2025 258   Southern Miss W 85-82 OT 78%     9 - 8 4 - 3 -5.2 -0.6 -5.0
  Jan 22, 2025 307   @ Louisiana W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 25, 2025 100   @ Arkansas St. L 70-78 22%    
  Jan 30, 2025 307   Louisiana W 78-67 85%    
  Feb 01, 2025 100   Arkansas St. L 73-75 42%    
  Feb 05, 2025 283   @ Old Dominion W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 225   @ Central Michigan W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 13, 2025 347   @ Louisiana Monroe W 75-66 79%    
  Feb 15, 2025 126   @ South Alabama L 65-70 29%    
  Feb 19, 2025 347   Louisiana Monroe W 78-63 92%    
  Feb 22, 2025 126   South Alabama W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 25, 2025 117   Troy L 70-71 50%    
  Feb 28, 2025 149   James Madison W 73-72 56%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 1.5 0.4 3.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 3.8 0.7 0.0 6.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.9 2.1 0.1 9.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 6.2 6.0 0.4 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 5.7 9.3 2.1 0.0 17.6 5th
6th 0.2 3.3 9.7 4.7 0.1 18.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 8.2 6.0 0.6 16.9 7th
8th 0.4 3.7 3.4 0.4 7.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.3 2.4 0.5 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.4 1.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.3 8.7 16.0 22.5 22.1 15.9 7.7 2.2 0.4 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 97.2% 0.4    0.3 0.1
14-4 65.5% 1.5    0.6 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 17.4% 1.3    0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.4% 30.6% 30.6% 12.5 0.1 0.1 0.3
14-4 2.2% 16.1% 16.1% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.9
13-5 7.7% 14.5% 14.5% 13.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 6.6
12-6 15.9% 10.5% 10.5% 13.8 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 14.3
11-7 22.1% 6.5% 6.5% 14.2 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 20.6
10-8 22.5% 4.4% 4.4% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 21.5
9-9 16.0% 3.1% 3.1% 14.8 0.1 0.4 0.0 15.5
8-10 8.7% 1.6% 1.6% 15.4 0.1 0.1 8.6
7-11 3.3% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.2
6-12 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 14.0 0.3 1.5 2.8 1.6 0.2 93.6 0.0%