Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#146
Expected Predictive Rating+1.2#169
Pace66.3#272
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#223
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#94
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.5% 13.9% 8.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.0 13.5
.500 or above 68.2% 78.2% 55.2%
.500 or above in Conference 74.9% 80.2% 68.1%
Conference Champion 14.2% 17.2% 10.3%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 1.4% 3.2%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round11.4% 13.8% 8.3%
Second Round1.6% 2.0% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Abilene Christian (Away) - 56.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 55 - 9
Quad 410 - 316 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 298   Eastern Michigan W 64-44 85%     1 - 0 +10.0 -6.7 +18.6
  Nov 12, 2024 53   @ TCU L 71-76 15%     1 - 1 +7.3 +1.4 +6.2
  Nov 16, 2024 237   @ Abilene Christian W 69-67 56%    
  Nov 21, 2024 90   Bradley L 65-70 33%    
  Dec 01, 2024 257   @ Texas Southern W 68-65 61%    
  Dec 08, 2024 191   Rice W 69-63 69%    
  Dec 14, 2024 74   @ Florida Atlantic L 71-81 19%    
  Dec 21, 2024 197   Georgia Southern W 75-69 70%    
  Dec 29, 2024 160   Texas Arlington W 76-72 62%    
  Jan 02, 2025 200   @ Marshall W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 04, 2025 203   @ Appalachian St. W 66-65 52%    
  Jan 09, 2025 121   @ Troy L 65-70 32%    
  Jan 11, 2025 231   @ Southern Miss W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 15, 2025 223   Georgia St. W 72-65 74%    
  Jan 18, 2025 231   Southern Miss W 74-67 74%    
  Jan 22, 2025 188   @ Louisiana L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 25, 2025 115   @ Arkansas St. L 67-73 31%    
  Jan 30, 2025 188   Louisiana W 70-65 68%    
  Feb 01, 2025 115   Arkansas St. W 70-69 52%    
  Feb 05, 2025 289   @ Old Dominion W 74-69 65%    
  Feb 13, 2025 319   @ Louisiana Monroe W 70-63 72%    
  Feb 15, 2025 198   @ South Alabama W 68-67 50%    
  Feb 19, 2025 319   Louisiana Monroe W 73-60 86%    
  Feb 22, 2025 198   South Alabama W 71-65 71%    
  Feb 25, 2025 121   Troy W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 28, 2025 126   James Madison W 71-70 55%    
Projected Record 15 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.5 4.2 2.8 1.3 0.3 14.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.7 3.4 1.3 0.2 12.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.2 4.9 3.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 11.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 4.8 3.5 0.7 0.1 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.1 3.6 0.7 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 4.3 1.1 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.0 1.7 0.1 7.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.3 2.2 0.2 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.6 0.4 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.3 0.7 0.0 4.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.9 0.9 0.1 3.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.6 6.5 8.4 10.5 12.0 12.1 11.9 10.5 7.7 5.6 3.0 1.3 0.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
16-2 93.4% 2.8    2.4 0.4 0.0
15-3 75.1% 4.2    2.7 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 45.3% 3.5    1.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 15.9% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 14.2% 14.2 8.5 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 61.3% 54.8% 6.5% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14.3%
17-1 1.3% 48.0% 44.1% 4.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 7.1%
16-2 3.0% 37.3% 37.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.9
15-3 5.6% 31.7% 31.6% 0.1% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 3.8 0.1%
14-4 7.7% 24.1% 24.1% 13.1 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 5.8
13-5 10.5% 19.7% 19.7% 13.4 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.2 8.4
12-6 11.9% 14.3% 14.3% 13.8 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 10.2
11-7 12.1% 7.8% 7.8% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 11.1
10-8 12.0% 4.9% 4.9% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 11.4
9-9 10.5% 3.1% 3.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 10.2
8-10 8.4% 2.1% 2.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.3
7-11 6.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 6.4
6-12 4.6% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 4.5
5-13 2.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.9
4-14 1.6% 1.6
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.5% 11.4% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.8 2.8 1.4 0.3 88.5 0.1%