Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#138
Expected Predictive Rating+2.9#123
Pace65.2#278
Improvement+0.3#162

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#138
First Shot+1.2#140
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#189
Layup/Dunks+5.8#25
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#134
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.7#354
Freethrows+2.7#51
Improvement+2.9#18

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#170
First Shot+0.2#166
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#198
Layups/Dunks-0.9#205
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#15
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#218
Freethrows-0.9#244
Improvement-2.6#340
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.7% 13.7% 9.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.3 13.7
.500 or above 88.0% 91.3% 76.4%
.500 or above in Conference 86.7% 90.5% 73.7%
Conference Champion 15.4% 18.0% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.2% 1.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round12.6% 13.7% 9.0%
Second Round1.3% 1.5% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Home) - 77.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 36 - 56 - 9
Quad 412 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 317   Eastern Michigan W 64-44 88%     1 - 0 +8.2 -9.1 +19.2
  Nov 12, 2024 86   @ TCU L 71-76 22%     1 - 1 +4.3 +2.9 +1.6
  Nov 16, 2024 188   @ Abilene Christian L 60-72 48%     1 - 2 -10.3 -11.2 +0.8
  Nov 21, 2024 76   Bradley L 68-82 28%     1 - 3 -6.9 -1.8 -5.4
  Nov 22, 2024 119   Princeton W 83-80 44%     2 - 3 +5.8 +14.9 -8.9
  Nov 24, 2024 161   Ohio W 74-65 55%     3 - 3 +8.9 +7.6 +2.4
  Dec 01, 2024 300   @ Texas Southern W 72-59 71%     4 - 3 +8.5 +2.8 +6.7
  Dec 08, 2024 197   Rice W 75-66 71%     5 - 3 +4.3 +12.3 -6.6
  Dec 14, 2024 84   @ Florida Atlantic L 80-89 21%     5 - 4 +0.6 +9.1 -8.6
  Dec 21, 2024 235   Georgia Southern W 78-70 78%    
  Dec 29, 2024 162   Texas Arlington W 78-74 66%    
  Jan 02, 2025 186   @ Marshall L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 04, 2025 171   @ Appalachian St. L 65-66 45%    
  Jan 09, 2025 127   @ Troy L 68-72 35%    
  Jan 11, 2025 282   @ Southern Miss W 74-69 66%    
  Jan 15, 2025 253   Georgia St. W 76-67 80%    
  Jan 18, 2025 282   Southern Miss W 77-66 83%    
  Jan 22, 2025 304   @ Louisiana W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 25, 2025 111   @ Arkansas St. L 69-75 31%    
  Jan 30, 2025 304   Louisiana W 78-66 86%    
  Feb 01, 2025 111   Arkansas St. W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 05, 2025 318   @ Old Dominion W 76-69 73%    
  Feb 13, 2025 326   @ Louisiana Monroe W 72-65 75%    
  Feb 15, 2025 201   @ South Alabama W 68-67 50%    
  Feb 19, 2025 326   Louisiana Monroe W 75-62 89%    
  Feb 22, 2025 201   South Alabama W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 25, 2025 127   Troy W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 28, 2025 112   James Madison W 72-71 52%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.2 4.8 2.9 1.2 0.2 15.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.8 4.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 15.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 6.3 5.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 15.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.4 4.8 1.1 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.4 5.0 1.2 0.1 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.7 4.7 1.4 0.1 9.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 3.7 1.7 0.1 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.9 0.2 0.0 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.8 6.3 9.5 12.6 14.5 15.1 13.8 10.2 6.5 3.1 1.2 0.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.7% 1.2    1.1 0.1
16-2 93.8% 2.9    2.5 0.5 0.0
15-3 73.9% 4.8    2.9 1.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 41.1% 4.2    1.5 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-5 13.2% 1.8    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.4% 15.4 8.5 4.8 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 48.1% 48.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.2% 38.9% 38.9% 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7
16-2 3.1% 33.0% 33.0% 12.4 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 2.1
15-3 6.5% 27.6% 27.6% 12.8 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.2 4.7
14-4 10.2% 22.4% 22.4% 13.1 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.6 0.0 7.9
13-5 13.8% 17.8% 17.8% 13.4 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.1 11.4
12-6 15.1% 12.4% 12.4% 13.8 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 13.2
11-7 14.5% 9.0% 9.0% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 13.2
10-8 12.6% 5.4% 5.4% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 11.9
9-9 9.5% 4.3% 4.3% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.1
8-10 6.3% 2.7% 2.7% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.1
7-11 3.8% 1.8% 1.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8
6-12 1.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 0.8% 0.8
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.8 3.9 1.4 0.1 87.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.9 6.7 6.7 11.1 42.2 33.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0%