Arkansas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.8#100
Expected Predictive Rating+6.2#89
Pace71.2#107
Improvement+0.0#180

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#114
First Shot-0.2#183
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#34
Layup/Dunks+0.6#153
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#135
Freethrows+1.7#80
Improvement+3.4#30

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#106
First Shot+4.3#53
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#322
Layups/Dunks+2.7#80
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#235
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#20
Freethrows-2.7#340
Improvement-3.4#337
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.1% 30.5% 22.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 12.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 99.5%
Conference Champion 43.2% 54.3% 18.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round28.1% 30.5% 22.8%
Second Round4.2% 4.8% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Appalachian St. (Home) - 69.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 22 - 13 - 3
Quad 37 - 59 - 8
Quad 414 - 124 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 124   Akron W 80-75 OT 69%     1 - 0 +4.8 -6.4 +10.3
  Nov 08, 2024 7   @ Alabama L 79-88 6%     1 - 1 +13.2 +0.4 +14.3
  Nov 12, 2024 238   Arkansas Little Rock W 80-63 86%     2 - 1 +9.9 +10.7 +0.0
  Nov 16, 2024 249   Stephen F. Austin W 59-49 88%     3 - 1 +2.3 -7.3 +10.4
  Nov 29, 2024 213   Indiana St. W 86-81 76%     4 - 1 +2.3 +4.9 -2.9
  Nov 30, 2024 192   Rice L 67-75 72%     4 - 2 -9.4 -5.6 -3.9
  Dec 01, 2024 174   Hofstra L 66-68 69%     4 - 3 -2.5 +1.3 -3.9
  Dec 05, 2024 278   Jackson St. W 66-64 90%     5 - 3 -7.3 -11.3 +3.9
  Dec 08, 2024 43   @ Memphis W 85-72 19%     6 - 3 +27.3 +7.4 +18.1
  Dec 12, 2024 201   Texas Arlington W 83-79 81%     7 - 3 -0.6 +5.1 -5.8
  Dec 15, 2024 97   @ UAB W 98-89 OT 38%     8 - 3 +17.0 +4.2 +10.8
  Dec 21, 2024 292   Coastal Carolina W 97-67 91%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +19.7 +23.0 -1.8
  Jan 02, 2025 283   @ Old Dominion W 78-59 81%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +14.7 +7.0 +8.5
  Jan 04, 2025 149   @ James Madison L 62-67 54%     10 - 4 2 - 1 -1.2 -6.8 +5.4
  Jan 09, 2025 126   @ South Alabama L 62-76 49%     10 - 5 2 - 2 -8.9 +3.6 -14.9
  Jan 11, 2025 117   @ Troy W 84-78 47%     11 - 5 3 - 2 +11.5 +20.9 -8.9
  Jan 16, 2025 307   Louisiana W 83-63 92%     12 - 5 4 - 2 +9.1 +6.3 +3.1
  Jan 18, 2025 280   Georgia St. W 85-59 91%     13 - 5 5 - 2 +16.3 +4.9 +10.7
  Jan 23, 2025 123   Appalachian St. W 70-65 69%    
  Jan 25, 2025 167   Texas St. W 78-70 78%    
  Jan 29, 2025 258   @ Southern Miss W 79-71 75%    
  Feb 01, 2025 167   @ Texas St. W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 05, 2025 179   @ Marshall W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 08, 2025 159   @ Kent St. W 69-67 55%    
  Feb 12, 2025 258   Southern Miss W 82-69 89%    
  Feb 15, 2025 117   Troy W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 19, 2025 126   South Alabama W 71-66 71%    
  Feb 22, 2025 347   Louisiana Monroe W 82-62 96%    
  Feb 26, 2025 307   @ Louisiana W 78-68 82%    
  Feb 28, 2025 347   @ Louisiana Monroe W 79-65 90%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 4.5 15.3 16.7 6.6 43.2 1st
2nd 0.1 2.5 11.4 8.2 1.2 23.4 2nd
3rd 0.7 6.4 6.9 1.3 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 5.2 0.9 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.9 1.1 0.0 4.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.2 0.1 2.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 7.5 15.5 23.8 24.7 18.0 6.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 6.6    6.3 0.2
15-3 93.0% 16.7    11.8 4.4 0.5
14-4 61.9% 15.3    6.1 6.6 2.4 0.3
13-5 18.9% 4.5    0.5 1.6 1.7 0.6 0.1
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.2% 43.2 24.7 12.8 4.6 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 6.6% 42.4% 42.4% 11.6 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.4 0.1 3.8
15-3 18.0% 36.7% 36.7% 12.1 0.6 4.6 1.4 0.1 11.4
14-4 24.7% 31.1% 31.1% 12.4 0.2 4.4 2.9 0.3 17.0
13-5 23.8% 26.9% 26.9% 12.7 0.0 2.5 3.4 0.5 17.4
12-6 15.5% 21.2% 21.2% 12.9 1.0 1.9 0.5 0.0 12.2
11-7 7.5% 14.4% 14.4% 13.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 6.4
10-8 2.9% 8.0% 8.0% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.7
9-9 1.0% 5.1% 5.1% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
8-10 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.1% 28.1% 0.0% 12.4 0.0 0.1 1.9 14.0 10.4 1.6 0.0 0.0 71.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 11.4 0.6 3.4 54.9 40.6 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%