South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#201
Expected Predictive Rating-2.3#205
Pace63.0#322
Improvement-1.4#274

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#205
First Shot+0.4#158
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#279
Layup/Dunks+1.6#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#306
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#125
Freethrows-0.6#217
Improvement+0.3#158

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#191
First Shot-1.2#210
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#127
Layups/Dunks+11.2#3
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-18.2#364
Freethrows+2.2#49
Improvement-1.7#305
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 6.6% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.4
.500 or above 74.1% 85.6% 66.1%
.500 or above in Conference 66.9% 80.3% 57.5%
Conference Champion 5.3% 9.9% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.0% 0.8% 2.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round4.7% 6.6% 3.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Home) - 41.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 54 - 8
Quad 413 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 219   Central Michigan L 70-74 65%     0 - 1 -9.8 -1.4 -8.6
  Nov 08, 2024 243   @ Nicholls St. W 70-64 49%     1 - 1 +4.4 +2.9 +2.0
  Nov 12, 2024 26   @ Mississippi L 54-64 5%     1 - 2 +6.6 -8.5 +14.5
  Nov 16, 2024 229   Mercer W 75-66 68%     2 - 2 +2.4 -1.0 +3.5
  Nov 25, 2024 307   Incarnate Word W 84-63 80%     3 - 2 +10.2 +9.0 +2.7
  Nov 26, 2024 328   Western Illinois L 63-64 85%     3 - 3 -13.9 -5.5 -8.6
  Nov 29, 2024 343   Alcorn St. W 74-65 OT 88%     4 - 3 -5.3 -1.0 -3.7
  Dec 08, 2024 173   Jacksonville St. W 76-74 58%     5 - 3 -1.8 +5.7 -7.3
  Dec 15, 2024 357   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-72 79%     6 - 3 -1.5 +6.8 -8.0
  Dec 16, 2024 86   @ TCU L 49-58 15%     6 - 4 +0.3 -8.3 +7.2
  Dec 21, 2024 112   James Madison L 69-71 41%    
  Jan 02, 2025 253   @ Georgia St. W 70-69 51%    
  Jan 04, 2025 235   @ Georgia Southern L 71-72 46%    
  Jan 09, 2025 111   Arkansas St. L 68-71 41%    
  Jan 11, 2025 318   Old Dominion W 75-65 82%    
  Jan 15, 2025 282   Southern Miss W 73-65 76%    
  Jan 18, 2025 127   Troy L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 23, 2025 326   @ Louisiana Monroe W 69-65 65%    
  Jan 25, 2025 127   @ Troy L 65-72 26%    
  Jan 30, 2025 326   Louisiana Monroe W 72-62 82%    
  Feb 01, 2025 304   @ Louisiana W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 05, 2025 274   @ Coastal Carolina W 65-64 54%    
  Feb 13, 2025 186   Marshall W 72-70 59%    
  Feb 15, 2025 138   Texas St. L 67-68 50%    
  Feb 19, 2025 111   @ Arkansas St. L 65-74 22%    
  Feb 22, 2025 138   @ Texas St. L 64-70 30%    
  Feb 26, 2025 282   @ Southern Miss W 70-68 55%    
  Feb 28, 2025 304   Louisiana W 75-66 79%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.3 1st
2nd 0.2 1.5 3.1 1.8 0.5 0.0 7.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 4.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.9 3.5 0.6 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 5.0 4.7 1.0 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.9 5.5 1.6 0.1 11.5 6th
7th 0.2 2.6 5.8 2.2 0.2 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 5.0 2.8 0.3 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.5 3.3 0.5 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.0 0.8 0.0 6.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 2.4 1.0 0.1 4.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 3.3 6.1 9.2 12.2 14.0 14.6 13.4 10.5 7.2 4.1 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 93.8% 0.7    0.6 0.1 0.0
15-3 73.6% 1.5    0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 43.4% 1.8    0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 12.3% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.3% 5.3 2.5 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 32.3% 32.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.8% 21.4% 21.4% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-3 2.0% 18.3% 18.3% 13.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.7
14-4 4.1% 14.3% 14.3% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 3.5
13-5 7.2% 12.5% 12.5% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 6.3
12-6 10.5% 8.2% 8.2% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 9.6
11-7 13.4% 6.0% 6.0% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 12.6
10-8 14.6% 3.2% 3.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 14.2
9-9 14.0% 2.0% 2.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 13.8
8-10 12.2% 1.2% 1.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.0
7-11 9.2% 0.7% 0.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 9.1
6-12 6.1% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 6.1
5-13 3.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.3
4-14 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.6 0.4 95.3 0.0%