South Alabama
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#126
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#131
Pace61.9#343
Improvement+3.9#33

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#185
First Shot+1.3#138
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#276
Layup/Dunks+1.8#116
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#287
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#116
Freethrows-0.5#209
Improvement+0.6#140

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#100
First Shot+1.5#125
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#98
Layups/Dunks+10.5#4
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#1
3 Pt Jumpshots-15.8#364
Freethrows+2.9#25
Improvement+3.2#35
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.9% 16.3% 14.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.6
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 99.2%
Conference Champion 43.3% 46.7% 22.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round15.9% 16.3% 14.0%
Second Round1.1% 1.2% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Away) - 86.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 27 - 6
Quad 414 - 421 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 225   Central Michigan L 70-74 80%     0 - 1 -10.4 -1.8 -8.7
  Nov 08, 2024 205   @ Nicholls St. W 70-64 57%     1 - 1 +6.6 +2.8 +4.2
  Nov 12, 2024 19   @ Mississippi L 54-64 8%     1 - 2 +8.3 -5.4 +13.0
  Nov 16, 2024 233   Mercer W 75-66 81%     2 - 2 +2.2 +1.1 +1.2
  Nov 25, 2024 303   Incarnate Word W 84-63 88%     3 - 2 +10.3 +9.5 +2.4
  Nov 26, 2024 336   Western Illinois L 63-64 93%     3 - 3 -15.2 -6.8 -8.5
  Nov 29, 2024 332   Alcorn St. W 74-65 OT 93%     4 - 3 -4.7 +0.3 -4.4
  Dec 08, 2024 162   Jacksonville St. W 76-74 68%     5 - 3 -0.5 +5.6 -6.0
  Dec 15, 2024 354   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 81-72 89%     6 - 3 -1.7 +7.6 -8.9
  Dec 16, 2024 62   @ TCU L 49-58 20%     6 - 4 +2.4 -7.9 +8.9
  Dec 21, 2024 149   James Madison W 77-49 66%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +26.3 +11.3 +17.9
  Jan 02, 2025 280   @ Georgia St. W 77-51 74%     8 - 4 2 - 0 +21.8 +12.4 +12.9
  Jan 04, 2025 272   @ Georgia Southern W 76-47 71%     9 - 4 3 - 0 +25.5 +3.7 +22.5
  Jan 09, 2025 100   Arkansas St. W 76-62 51%     10 - 4 4 - 0 +16.0 +17.0 +1.4
  Jan 11, 2025 283   Old Dominion L 63-71 OT 87%     10 - 5 4 - 1 -17.8 -13.1 -4.9
  Jan 15, 2025 258   Southern Miss W 75-62 84%     11 - 5 5 - 1 +4.8 -1.8 +6.4
  Jan 18, 2025 117   Troy W 64-63 59%     12 - 5 6 - 1 +1.0 -3.2 +4.3
  Jan 23, 2025 347   @ Louisiana Monroe W 72-60 86%    
  Jan 25, 2025 117   @ Troy L 64-67 37%    
  Jan 30, 2025 347   Louisiana Monroe W 74-57 95%    
  Feb 01, 2025 307   @ Louisiana W 71-63 76%    
  Feb 05, 2025 292   @ Coastal Carolina W 68-61 74%    
  Feb 08, 2025 124   @ Akron L 70-73 39%    
  Feb 13, 2025 179   Marshall W 71-65 72%    
  Feb 15, 2025 167   Texas St. W 70-65 71%    
  Feb 19, 2025 100   @ Arkansas St. L 66-71 30%    
  Feb 22, 2025 167   @ Texas St. L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 26, 2025 258   @ Southern Miss W 71-66 67%    
  Feb 28, 2025 307   Louisiana W 73-60 89%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 4.1 13.8 16.0 7.8 1.5 43.3 1st
2nd 0.1 2.7 11.4 9.4 1.5 25.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 6.3 6.1 1.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.7 4.9 0.8 0.0 8.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.9 1.0 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 1.2 0.0 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 3.0 7.6 15.1 22.4 24.2 17.5 7.8 1.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5
16-2 100.0% 7.8    7.2 0.6
15-3 91.2% 16.0    10.7 4.8 0.5
14-4 56.9% 13.8    4.6 6.4 2.5 0.3
13-5 18.4% 4.1    0.4 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.1
12-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.3% 43.3 24.4 13.3 4.6 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.5% 23.4% 23.4% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.2
16-2 7.8% 26.5% 26.5% 12.6 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.2 5.7
15-3 17.5% 21.8% 21.8% 13.0 0.0 0.9 1.9 0.9 0.0 13.7
14-4 24.2% 18.5% 18.5% 13.3 0.5 2.3 1.6 0.1 19.7
13-5 22.4% 13.5% 13.5% 13.6 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 19.4
12-6 15.1% 10.4% 10.4% 14.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 13.5
11-7 7.6% 6.3% 6.3% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 7.1
10-8 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.9
9-9 0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 14.0 0.0 0.7
8-10 0.2% 0.2
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 13.3 0.1 2.7 6.8 5.4 1.0 0.0 84.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%